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HOT TOPIC Is a market crash coming? Or massive hyper-inflation?

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MJ DeMarco

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What we're seeing with real estate values is purely a supply issue...

IMO, that's a big contributor (as well as low interest rates) but not the driving factor.

Labor and material costs are through the roof. I'm trying to build a custom home in Sedona (all while trying to buy RE out-of-state - what a shitshow) and the price to build have gone up nearly 400,000 since we started the project. My floor plan hasn't changed in those 10 months. So to your point, not only is the supply short in existing inventory, but supply is short all through the material supply chain, including the labor.

Talking about inflation... Im in Idaho, probably the gnarliest housing market in the country.

I almost bought this POS warehouse for 3M last year, owner got called feet... Sold it 1 day on market this past week for 4M... 3m was absolutely batshit

The house I bought last March for 230 I could sell tomorrow for 530.

Houses go 50-100k over asking with 10+ offers within the first week here. Im not exaggerating.

Own assets.... businesses, crypto, real estate, stocks. Cash is literally 50% more worthless than it was a year ago

Yikes.

But the Federal Reserve disagrees with you!
As does all those articles on CNBC!

Why do you believe the data that's right in front of your eyes? Don't you know thinking for yourself is dangerous?

Just because a 2X4 from Home Depot now costs $6.94 when it cost $2.84 just a few years ago doesn't mean inflation is 244%. LOL, according to gangsters in Jackson Hole, it's only 1.5%.
 

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Timmy C

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IMO, that's a big contributor (as well as low interest rates) but not the driving factor.

Labor and material costs are through the roof. I'm trying to build a custom home in Sedona (all while trying to buy RE out-of-state - what a shitshow) and the price to build have gone up nearly 400,000 since we started the project. My floor plan hasn't changed in those 10 months. So to your point, not only is the supply short in existing inventory, but supply is short all through the material supply chain, including the labor.



Yikes.

But the Federal Reserve disagrees with you!
As does all those articles on CNBC!

Why do you believe the data that's right in front of your eyes? Don't you know thinking for yourself is dangerous?

Just because a 2X4 from Home Depot now costs $6.94 when it cost $2.84 just a few years ago doesn't mean inflation is 244%. LOL, according to gangsters in Jackson Hole, it's only 1.5%.


Inflation a out of control.
In Australia:

Cars cost an extra $5000 on average. I bought mine for $6,000 a few years ago. I was looking to upgrade and that same car I bought for $6,000 now sells for $8000!

To get something decent im looking at $15,000 pfft just keeping the car.

Housing in my town went up from $340,000 for a unit to now $400,000+ merely a few months later.

Petrol is up 30c litre.
Some food is up more than 50%.

But DW everyone, there is no inflation!
 

biophase

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IMO, that's a big contributor (as well as low interest rates) but not the driving factor.

Labor and material costs are through the roof. I'm trying to build a custom home in Sedona (all while trying to buy RE out-of-state - what a shitshow) and the price to build have gone up nearly 400,000 since we started the project. My floor plan hasn't changed in those 10 months. So to your point, not only is the supply short in existing inventory, but supply is short all through the material supply chain, including the labor.



Yikes.

But the Federal Reserve disagrees with you!
As does all those articles on CNBC!

Why do you believe the data that's right in front of your eyes? Don't you know thinking for yourself is dangerous?

Just because a 2X4 from Home Depot now costs $6.94 when it cost $2.84 just a few years ago doesn't mean inflation is 244%. LOL, according to gangsters in Jackson Hole, it's only 1.5%.

I just made a bet on real estate in Vegas. I bought a custom home new construction which will be done in March 2022. The way I saw it was that I basically bought an option on a home. It was a damn expensive option so I probably won’t be backing out unless the housing market drops by a lot.

But I’m worried if the builder can build it at my contracted price. Unlike MJ, my price can’t be raised by then so I’m hoping they don’t take short cuts. Hope they bought a lot of wood futures!
 
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biggeemac

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Yep, my builder had to have the floor joists re-engineered on my house because lvl's are unavailable. Something about the glues needed to manufacture the lvl's being unavailable.
 

Calvert79

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If that were necessarily true, we never would have seen the fall of Rome... Or China... Or India...

All massive world superpowers with economic control more widespread than what we have in the US today...

Economies -- and governments -- rise and fall. Including the Kings and Queens who rule them.

I would suggest anyone interested in learning some economic history (and how to profit from the lessons from it) read some Ray Dalio...




Sort of agreed with this part. I disagree with hyper-inflationary -- as the world's reserve currency, there are artificial ways to stop hyper-inflation -- but definitely inflationary.

Which is why I'm telling everyone who will listen to put their cash into leverageable cash-flowing assets, for three reasons:

1. Asset values will rise;
2. Cash flow will rise;
3. Debt will be arbitraged by inflation.

Over the next 5-10 years, there will essentially be free money flowing to those who know how to take it.

Btw, I was on this forum back in 2008 when lots of people were screaming about "hyper-inflation" and how we were going to see a collapse of our currency, blah, blah, blah back then... Not saying it won't happen at some point (it will), but people tend to get swept up in emotion during tumultuous times, and forget that seemingly once-in-a-lifetime economic events actually happen pretty often.

The oil crisis of the 70s, the savings and loan collapse of the 80s, the tech implosion around 2000, the Great Recession of 2008... And now the "Covid economy"...

Could this be the beginning of the end? Sure... One of these times it will be. But statistically speaking, this probably isn't it...

So, just assume inflation is coming, invest your money in a way that leverages that inflation, and then enjoy the profits...
Can you give examples of leverageable cash-flowing assets? Sorry, I'm new here! :)
 

Timmy C

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They keep kicking the can down the road.


You think your playing checkers then they change the game and rules on you.

Being a good investor doesn't exist now. It's all based on luck and what our rulers decide happens.

A useless skill if government can just intervene at every turn and change the game.
 

Calvert79

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I want to buy land to grow food. That's where my head's at. I've been buying physical gold and silver for a short while as well as SHTF prepping supplies.

You can tell my outlook is pretty bleak.

And I know they've always been predicting this kind of thing but when the WEF says we're having a great reset, it's kind of a big deal, no? Clue's in the name...
 

OverByte

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Real estate investments, some business investments and potentially some creative equity investments.
What do you think about the stock market in general? It seems a lot of stimulus has found its way there and seems like a bubble but maybe won't pop for many years? Do you think the S&P is poised for a major drop in the next 6-12 months? I'm wondering if I should park some of my cash in index funds. This is cash for business and I want to keep it liquid, low risk & don't care as much about growth as keeping its value.

Edit: also curious your opinion on REITs which seems like they'd give some exposure to RE without loss of liquidity?
 

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Ing

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Lumber!
Jan 300
April 400 rising.

chinese compani buy all lumber here
if I had money over, I d buy Lumber.

btw: I bet some k € on falling Dow. I fear I ll loose it.
 

Kid

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So Ameridollar is the name of the game.

Doesn't it make sense:
Create crisis by printing trillions of dollars.
Weaken the dollar so it has to be joined by 2 other currencies
to become "strong" again.
Blame everything on Covid and people "'cause y'all wanted free money"
Have ability to put 3 countries in debt instead of 1.

What's not to like?
 

JScott

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What do you think about the stock market in general? It seems a lot of stimulus has found its way there and seems like a bubble but maybe won't pop for many years? Do you think the S&P is poised for a major drop in the next 6-12 months? I'm wondering if I should park some of my cash in index funds. This is cash for business and I want to keep it liquid, low risk & don't care as much about growth as keeping its value.

My big issue with the equities market is this:


It could be a decade before GDP catches up with equity values, and until that happens, the market is likely overvalued.

That doesn't mean there will be a correction/crash, but it does mean that a correction is a whole lot more likely, and equities most certainly are not on sale. Also, without leverage, inflation doesn't provide much additional upside like it does with real estate and some other asset classes.
 

MJ DeMarco

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just made a bet on real estate in Vegas. I bought a custom home new construction which will be done in March 2021.

Good bet.

I did that during the last housing boom, by the time the house was done it was worth 40K more. Sold it 3 months later.

But I’m worried if the builder can build it at my contracted price.

Yea, I'd be worried about them taking your deposit if they can't fill the contract or go belly up. Someone on the other inflation thread said their builder is trying to renegotiate because prices have gone up.

What's not to like?

The Ameridollar...
The Eurodollar
The Asiadollar

3 currencies, 1 world order and a fresh start with no sovereign debt, but plenty of consumer debt to keep the scam alive. Sounds pretty cool eh? The Uniform Currency and Stabilization Act of 2022 will be chocked full of all kind of goodies!! Kinda like how "The Affordable Care Act" turned my health insurance payment into the equivalent of a mortgage.

Of course I'm speculating wildly as the dramatic writer in me is coming out, but nothing surprises me any longer, now I just have fun speculating on what ridiculousness they'll do next.
 

Kid

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The Ameridollar...
The Eurodollar
The Asiadollar

3 currencies, 1 world order and a fresh start with no sovereign debt, but plenty of consumer debt to keep the scam alive. Sounds pretty cool eh? The Uniform Currency and Stabilization Act of 2022 will be chocked full of all kind of goodies!! Kinda like how "The Affordable Care Act" turned my health insurance payment into the equivalent of a mortgage.

Of course I'm speculating wildly as the dramatic writer in me is coming out, but nothing surprises me any longer, now I just have fun speculating on what ridiculousness they'll do next.
Don't forget Russiadollar!!

Seeing how things are going between NATO and Russia over Ukraine , they would probably try to do something on their own and gather post soviet states.

But seriously, there's already IMF, ECB and (just checked it ) South East Asian Central Bank (SEACEN).

So we probably only wait for young new generation who would go:
"Bankers? Fed? As long as i can Venmo my pals, I don't care that there's only one currency in the world"
 

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