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HOT TOPIC Is a market crash coming? Or massive hyper-inflation?

Marigold

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If that were necessarily true, we never would have seen the fall of Rome... Or China... Or India...

All massive world superpowers with economic control more widespread than what we have in the US today...

Economies -- and governments -- rise and fall. Including the Kings and Queens who rule them.

I would suggest anyone interested in learning some economic history (and how to profit from the lessons from it) read some Ray Dalio...




Sort of agreed with this part. I disagree with hyper-inflationary -- as the world's reserve currency, there are artificial ways to stop hyper-inflation -- but definitely inflationary.

Which is why I'm telling everyone who will listen to put their cash into leverageable cash-flowing assets, for three reasons:

1. Asset values will rise;
2. Cash flow will rise;
3. Debt will be arbitraged by inflation.

Over the next 5-10 years, there will essentially be free money flowing to those who know how to take it.

Btw, I was on this forum back in 2008 when lots of people were screaming about "hyper-inflation" and how we were going to see a collapse of our currency, blah, blah, blah back then... Not saying it won't happen at some point (it will), but people tend to get swept up in emotion during tumultuous times, and forget that seemingly once-in-a-lifetime economic events actually happen pretty often.

The oil crisis of the 70s, the savings and loan collapse of the 80s, the tech implosion around 2000, the Great Recession of 2008... And now the "Covid economy"...

Could this be the beginning of the end? Sure... One of these times it will be. But statistically speaking, this probably isn't it...

So, just assume inflation is coming, invest your money in a way that leverages that inflation, and then enjoy the profits...
Can you give examples of leverageable cash-flowing assets? Sorry, I'm new here! :)
 

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Timmy C

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They keep kicking the can down the road.


You think your playing checkers then they change the game and rules on you.

Being a good investor doesn't exist now. It's all based on luck and what our rulers decide happens.

A useless skill if government can just intervene at every turn and change the game.
 

Marigold

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I want to buy land to grow food. That's where my head's at. I've been buying physical gold and silver for a short while as well as SHTF prepping supplies.

You can tell my outlook is pretty bleak.

And I know they've always been predicting this kind of thing but when the WEF says we're having a great reset, it's kind of a big deal, no? Clue's in the name...
 

OverByte

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Real estate investments, some business investments and potentially some creative equity investments.
What do you think about the stock market in general? It seems a lot of stimulus has found its way there and seems like a bubble but maybe won't pop for many years? Do you think the S&P is poised for a major drop in the next 6-12 months? I'm wondering if I should park some of my cash in index funds. This is cash for business and I want to keep it liquid, low risk & don't care as much about growth as keeping its value.

Edit: also curious your opinion on REITs which seems like they'd give some exposure to RE without loss of liquidity?
 
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Ing

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Lumber!
Jan 300
April 400 rising.

chinese compani buy all lumber here
if I had money over, I d buy Lumber.

btw: I bet some k € on falling Dow. I fear I ll loose it.
 

Kid

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So Ameridollar is the name of the game.

Doesn't it make sense:
Create crisis by printing trillions of dollars.
Weaken the dollar so it has to be joined by 2 other currencies
to become "strong" again.
Blame everything on Covid and people "'cause y'all wanted free money"
Have ability to put 3 countries in debt instead of 1.

What's not to like?
 

MJ DeMarco

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just made a bet on real estate in Vegas. I bought a custom home new construction which will be done in March 2021.

Good bet.

I did that during the last housing boom, by the time the house was done it was worth 40K more. Sold it 3 months later.

But I’m worried if the builder can build it at my contracted price.

Yea, I'd be worried about them taking your deposit if they can't fill the contract or go belly up. Someone on the other inflation thread said their builder is trying to renegotiate because prices have gone up.

What's not to like?

The Ameridollar...
The Eurodollar
The Asiadollar

3 currencies, 1 world order and a fresh start with no sovereign debt, but plenty of consumer debt to keep the scam alive. Sounds pretty cool eh? The Uniform Currency and Stabilization Act of 2022 will be chocked full of all kind of goodies!! Kinda like how "The Affordable Care Act" turned my health insurance payment into the equivalent of a mortgage.

Of course I'm speculating wildly as the dramatic writer in me is coming out, but nothing surprises me any longer, now I just have fun speculating on what ridiculousness they'll do next.
 

Kid

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The Ameridollar...
The Eurodollar
The Asiadollar

3 currencies, 1 world order and a fresh start with no sovereign debt, but plenty of consumer debt to keep the scam alive. Sounds pretty cool eh? The Uniform Currency and Stabilization Act of 2022 will be chocked full of all kind of goodies!! Kinda like how "The Affordable Care Act" turned my health insurance payment into the equivalent of a mortgage.

Of course I'm speculating wildly as the dramatic writer in me is coming out, but nothing surprises me any longer, now I just have fun speculating on what ridiculousness they'll do next.
Don't forget Russiadollar!!

Seeing how things are going between NATO and Russia over Ukraine , they would probably try to do something on their own and gather post soviet states.

But seriously, there's already IMF, ECB and (just checked it ) South East Asian Central Bank (SEACEN).

So we probably only wait for young new generation who would go:
"Bankers? Fed? As long as i can Venmo my pals, I don't care that there's only one currency in the world"
 

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If Crypto wasn't around would this inflation be even higher?

I would imagine it has somewhat slowed down the rise in property and asset prices.
 

Timmy C

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''The rate of inflation over the past 12 months shot up to 2.6% last month from 1.7% in February, marking the highest level since the fall of 2018.

The yearly rate of inflation is widely expected to surge in the next few months.''

- Article below


Nothing to worry about, 2.6% in a month seems fine everyone...
LMAO please!
Remember, this is the manipulated number. Real inflation was higher previously & is much higher than reported now.

 

ElleMg

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Could this be the plan of the “Great Reset?”

Royally f*ck up the global economy with loads of debt and sugar high stimulus, then pull the plug with no parachute?
The UK and Canadian PMs on the same day saying it is lockdowns rather than vaccinations 'saving lives', leaves the door open for more lockdowns, and 'free' money, in the future. If they shut everything down and continue giving out money AFTER everyone's been offered a vaccine I'm going to be convinced it's part of the Great Reset plan
 

e_fastlane

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The UK and Canadian PMs on the same day saying it is lockdowns rather than vaccinations 'saving lives', leaves the door open for more lockdowns, and 'free' money, in the future. If they shut everything down and continue giving out money AFTER everyone's been offered a vaccine I'm going to be convinced it's part of the Great Reset plan
While terrible for those countries
economies, wouldn't this be a great thing for the USA? Not only will that make the USA more comparatively productive, continuing its dominance, but it seems like it would tone down any coming usd inflation since compared to other countries we would be less inflated and demand globally for usd would keep value high (almost like having your cake and eating it to).

The only route I see for lockdowns to benefit a country is if the viruse affects the future labor force and a much smaller working population means smaller economic activity ...but considering the virus drastically skews to effect the least currently productive members...not locking down may even be an economic win, right? Obviously I am not saying an economic win at the cost of human lives is a good thing, because the human toll is much more valuable and devastating than economic effects. But this thread is purely about economics and when talking purely economics, it seems to be an economic win?
 

MJ DeMarco

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Weak job report, and the market blasts to new record highs as people continue to sell fiat USD. This is why I removed "Millionaire" from my new book's subtitle, by the time it is released, a millionaire will about about as impressive as a new Honda Civic.
 

loop101

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Weak job report, and the market blasts to new record highs as people continue to sell fiat USD. This is why I removed "Millionaire" from my new book's subtitle, by the time it is released, a millionaire will about about as impressive as a new Honda Civic.

If you were degreeless, jobless, and almost broke, and tomorrow someone handed you $1M in cash, what would you do?
 

MJ DeMarco

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If you were degreeless, jobless, and almost broke, and tomorrow someone handed you $1M in cash, what would you do?

Start a business that needs equipment to start, for example, a sit down lawnmower starts a landscape business. A scissors lift can start a tree trimming business, etc.
 

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If you were degreeless, jobless, and almost broke, and tomorrow someone handed you $1M in cash, what would you do?

Say thanks, check it is real, and help them on their way.
 

loop101

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Say thanks, check it is real, and help them on their way.

I would think protecting the money might be important, maybe put it in a fund that tracks inflation. That would probably not help if the entire market crashed.
 

peddletothemetal

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What are members current opinions on how the next recession will go down?

The thing that stands out to me is that after a global pandemic, there doesn't appear to be any noticeable economic difference at least from where I'm standing. There was a bit of panick and layoffs, but people found new jobs, and the stockmarket etc is now where it was before the pandemic hit. It's like we haven't felt was we should have felt. It just doesn't add up.

People had been saying for a while that the recession was due, 2020 or 2021, but we haven't really felt one.

The only conclusion I can come to is that it's been postponed (by a torrent of money printing and government spending), but that when it finally hits, all that "pent up recession" (that's been going since 2008 or even 2000) is going to be released and it's going to be absolutely brutal. The "big one".

So what are members opinions of how and when this will likely go down? Or possible triggers or "bells" to watch out for.

Also what defensive measures do you think would be best?

The problem I'm having around developing defenses is that when crashes happen, they tend to be (basically by definition) heavily deflationary. During 2008 for instance, gold dropped along with everything else, as people liquidate to cash simply because it's the unit of account (they need it to meet their payables). Gold subsequently had a bull run, but the fact was still that cash & bonds & USD were still the go-to assets when the crash hit. That's the default pattern.

This time I'm not sure how it will play out. Everyone knows that if it hits, them and other countries will hit the already smoking printing presses hard, and spend like crazy. They'll print 10x if needed. But that will just appear 10x as absurd: it would just be impossible for people to believe cash & bonds aren't doomed after that.

Currently I'm in a mix of cash (mostly) and gold as a result, but I'm not sure what else to diversify into. The only thing I've been able to think of so far is consumer staples and basic utilities, as they appear very solid (people don't go without food & electricity in 1st world country recessions). But the charts still indicate that when recessions hit these stocks still take a big hit along with everything else. This indicates the best course is: stay in cash until "blood on streets" and then exit it all.

My cash exit idea would then be into: gold & silver, staples & utilities etc, and country indexes with low history of recession postponing and good economic and government fundamentals.

My one concern with this is that I'm wrong about a pending crash and we're already in some kind of stagflation, where the loose money is going to somehow cloak the crashes because they won't appear in dollar terms during runaway inflation. If this is the case I should exit the cash now rather than wait.

The one indicator I have that the hold cash decision is correct it that it's what all the big guys are doing, Buffet, the big tech companies etc, who are all holding massive cash. This seems to indicate they're all waiting for a crash.
 

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Timmy C

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What are members current opinions on how the next recession will go down?

The thing that stands out to me is that after a global pandemic, there doesn't appear to be any noticeable economic difference at least from where I'm standing. There was a bit of panick and layoffs, but people found new jobs, and the stockmarket etc is now where it was before the pandemic hit. It's like we haven't felt was we should have felt. It just doesn't add up.

People had been saying for a while that the recession was due, 2020 or 2021, but we haven't really felt one.

The only conclusion I can come to is that it's been postponed (by a torrent of money printing and government spending), but that when it finally hits, all that "pent up recession" (that's been going since 2008 or even 2000) is going to be released and it's going to be absolutely brutal. The "big one".

So what are members opinions of how and when this will likely go down? Or possible triggers or "bells" to watch out for.

Also what defensive measures do you think would be best?

The problem I'm having around developing defenses is that when crashes happen, they tend to be (basically by definition) heavily deflationary. During 2008 for instance, gold dropped along with everything else, as people liquidate to cash simply because it's the unit of account (they need it to meet their payables). Gold subsequently had a bull run, but the fact was still that cash & bonds & USD were still the go-to assets when the crash hit. That's the default pattern.

This time I'm not sure how it will play out. Everyone knows that if it hits, them and other countries will hit the already smoking printing presses hard, and spend like crazy. They'll print 10x if needed. But that will just appear 10x as absurd: it would just be impossible for people to believe cash & bonds aren't doomed after that.

Currently I'm in a mix of cash (mostly) and gold as a result, but I'm not sure what else to diversify into. The only thing I've been able to think of so far is consumer staples and basic utilities, as they appear very solid (people don't go without food & electricity in 1st world country recessions). But the charts still indicate that when recessions hit these stocks still take a big hit along with everything else. This indicates the best course is: stay in cash until "blood on streets" and then exit it all.

My cash exit idea would then be into: gold & silver, staples & utilities etc, and country indexes with low history of recession postponing and good economic and government fundamentals.

My one concern with this is that I'm wrong about a pending crash and we're already in some kind of stagflation, where the loose money is going to somehow cloak the crashes because they won't appear in dollar terms during runaway inflation. If this is the case I should exit the cash now rather than wait.

The one indicator I have that the hold cash decision is correct it that it's what all the big guys are doing, Buffet, the big tech companies etc, who are all holding massive cash. This seems to indicate they're all waiting for a crash.


For me I hold cash as liquidity.

Crypto.
Supermarket stocks.
Index fund investments.

That's it.
 

MJ DeMarco

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So what are members opinions of how and when this will likely go down? Or possible triggers or "bells" to watch out for.

Some potential impetuses...

  • The USD is removed as the reserve currency.
  • When the Capital Gains Tax is raised, expect a huge market sell off before the new taxes become effective. If that happens, I'm selling everything to lock in the lower rates. The sell off cascades into the larger systemic problems relating to lower capital investment, lower innovation, and other things relating to having 50% of any successful investment you make stolen from you.
 

Kevin88660

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What are members current opinions on how the next recession will go down?

The thing that stands out to me is that after a global pandemic, there doesn't appear to be any noticeable economic difference at least from where I'm standing. There was a bit of panick and layoffs, but people found new jobs, and the stockmarket etc is now where it was before the pandemic hit. It's like we haven't felt was we should have felt. It just doesn't add up.

People had been saying for a while that the recession was due, 2020 or 2021, but we haven't really felt one.

The only conclusion I can come to is that it's been postponed (by a torrent of money printing and government spending), but that when it finally hits, all that "pent up recession" (that's been going since 2008 or even 2000) is going to be released and it's going to be absolutely brutal. The "big one".

So what are members opinions of how and when this will likely go down? Or possible triggers or "bells" to watch out for.

Also what defensive measures do you think would be best?

The problem I'm having around developing defenses is that when crashes happen, they tend to be (basically by definition) heavily deflationary. During 2008 for instance, gold dropped along with everything else, as people liquidate to cash simply because it's the unit of account (they need it to meet their payables). Gold subsequently had a bull run, but the fact was still that cash & bonds & USD were still the go-to assets when the crash hit. That's the default pattern.

This time I'm not sure how it will play out. Everyone knows that if it hits, them and other countries will hit the already smoking printing presses hard, and spend like crazy. They'll print 10x if needed. But that will just appear 10x as absurd: it would just be impossible for people to believe cash & bonds aren't doomed after that.

Currently I'm in a mix of cash (mostly) and gold as a result, but I'm not sure what else to diversify into. The only thing I've been able to think of so far is consumer staples and basic utilities, as they appear very solid (people don't go without food & electricity in 1st world country recessions). But the charts still indicate that when recessions hit these stocks still take a big hit along with everything else. This indicates the best course is: stay in cash until "blood on streets" and then exit it all.

My cash exit idea would then be into: gold & silver, staples & utilities etc, and country indexes with low history of recession postponing and good economic and government fundamentals.

My one concern with this is that I'm wrong about a pending crash and we're already in some kind of stagflation, where the loose money is going to somehow cloak the crashes because they won't appear in dollar terms during runaway inflation. If this is the case I should exit the cash now rather than wait.

The one indicator I have that the hold cash decision is correct it that it's what all the big guys are doing, Buffet, the big tech companies etc, who are all holding massive cash. This seems to indicate they're all waiting for a crash.
The way I divide my cash is to have some my personal business operation development and have some for investment chasing the most risky investment class.

If the asset inflationary pressure is to continue your small investment in the riskiest asset class and generate a lot of return.

I do keep a lot of cash. Nobody get broke due to inflation but when once in a ten year event hit like covid or global financial crisis 2008, its the margin call and the cutting loss that make people go broke.

I think market will have frequent sharp V shape downward correction and when things are okay they will resume going up. 2008 and 2020 march was just a bigger V.

We are oscillating between extreme leverage and greed (encouraged by the central planners) which as a result produces sharp and painful correction along the way. Make sure the first downward journey of a V shaped downturn doesn’t kill you and you will stand to enjoy the supercycle of asset inflation that is coming.

I checked with my fellow retail friends who were playings stocks and almost all without exception lost money in 2020 March crash despite the fact that we had a full recovery and prices going higher. A too large position exposed is always the problem.

Inflation erodes your wealth slowly but a sudden asset price and economics deflation can wipe you out in weeks. It is really about striking the balance between getting posed to benefit from the long term inflationary trend while being anti-fragile against short term deflationary forces that often strike hard without warning.
 

Vas87

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Here in Australia I'm sitting on 10% crypto/shares and the rest cash at the moment and it feels a bit dumb watching hard asset prices go up and up. The question is deploy some cash now or wait for a correction? Super low interest rates are super enticing.
 

peddletothemetal

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it feels a bit dumb watching hard asset prices go up and up
I know the feeling, but it's a repeating feeling, guys felt it up to 2008, 2000, 1987. I'm just going off the vibe that the numbers are dumb. Like dogecoin, a joke that's real so long as people keep laughing. So it doesn't bother me, I'm sticking to mostly cash.

We haven't had a real "blood in the streets" since beyond our memories. Even the 2008 crash was nothing to those who held on a few years after. I think the opportunity of having buying power when the big one hits is just such an opportunity.

I think there's much to be said for borrowing though. Like given its guaranteed cash will be worth nothing given enough time, borrowing it, especially at these rates, just seems so ridiculous an opportunity to avoid. I've already got a margin account set up. It's just working out the right way to play this. Doesn't matter what the prices will be in 3 years if get knocked out in the crash.
 

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Put your $$ to work. Don't be afraid of corrections as long as you do solid research and constantly stay up to date on the latest information.
 

Vas87

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I think there's much to be said for borrowing though. Like given its guaranteed cash will be worth nothing given enough time, borrowing it, especially at these rates, just seems so ridiculous an opportunity to avoid. I've already got a margin account set up. It's just working out the right way to play this. Doesn't matter what the prices will be in 3 years if get knocked out in the crash.df
I think this is why real estate is going up so much, people are hedging. Having said that spoke to a broker who said majority of people in the market here in my city in Australia are not investors.
 

thechosen1

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I think this is why real estate is going up so much, people are hedging. Having said that spoke to a broker who said majority of people in the market here in my city in Australia are not investors.
Yeah no, since most of them are not investors, the real reason real estate is going up is from a couple of factors that all spell disaster:
1. Cheap debt. Unsophisticated homebuyers see low interest rates and get in bidding wars for houses that aren't worth what they are paying for them.
2. Stimulus checks, PPP loans, big spending, and other forms of inflation: all of that money finds a home somewhere, and when it's done trading hands, it finds the home in assets (real estate, stocks, bonds, commodities, etc)

Both are bad for the economy. At least, for average people who will probably all get burned hard - and for businesspeople later, when we get blamed for it all even though it was mostly government policy.
 

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