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In the next 30 years, the world will see much more pain than happiness

Discussion in 'General Entrepreneurship and Startup' started by William, Apr 24, 2017.

  1. ZF Lee
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    ZF Lee Silver Contributor Read The Millionaire Fastlane Speedway Pass

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    Bump.
    IMO, Jack Ma is speaking the truth. Two parties will suffer:

    a.Unskilled workers like civil servants, blue-collars (minus tradesmen who are skilled in their crafts) and average 9-5ers will definitely feel the blow. Ali Baba's rise to prominence will certainly spark the rising of more businesses, which will lead to more competition, busts and advancements.

    Not everyone will be able to be versatile enough to adapt. Some will try to succeed in a new world that is not their playing field any longer, but will get crushed. Others will run away to 'safe' industries, albeit settling for lower pay and not a few will fall into Vigilante's despotic gloomy world...
    GOLD - Ever wonder how people end up in dead end jobs at 40?

    That's life. Economics has never been so cruel.

    b. Ali Baba is a sign of the floodgates of entrepreneurship opening. For many of us, it will be the flood of wealth and opportunities, but let's say floods can drown people.

    Jack Ma reduced the barrier of entry and scale for Chinese factories and small business to make it big. Eventually I might see a language and policy integration. By language, I mean the Chinese and other users learning English as they connect with the outside world, and learning it EXTREMELY well to ABSORB vital skills like copywriting, marketing and sales from the Western sphere, where these disciplines have been well developed amidst a capitalistic world.

    I haven't heard of a Jim Rohn, Tony Robbins or Gary Halbert incarnate in China yet. My hunch is that they'll take our knowledge and develop them in their own cultural spheres once they get to English.

    As for policy integration, China's governmental watchdogs similar to the SEC and others are yet to be as liberal as other countries, save for some trade zones. But should they choose to open up further, we'll have more customers to cater to. As the Chinese grow richer, they'll be spending more and the cycle of demand and supply comes back.

    These developments will increase the number of competitors, and the commandment of entry might be in jeopardy, albeit 'the house is full of cows'.

    And we have already witnessed the low price destruction of Chinese products as an inkling of the future...shit is going to get commoditised.

    Here's a chilling excerpt of a Jack Ma interview on why the US is being trounced by China despite having a brilliant global outsourcing strategy. This is the most haunting of his interviews that I have ever watched because it is damn true...

    View: https://youtu.be/SGbZ8WdrNF8



    I'll upgrade your USP. How about 'Quick and Large'?;):playful:
    Bump.
    Besides the ethereum blockchain thread, this post stirs something within me. Tech may be a fancy saturated game all right, but the tables keep changing to clear the slaughter house, so this info is viable.
     
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  2. samsig03
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    samsig03 Contributor

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    I am all over the ethereum blockchain thread as well. Everyone has been talking about change for along time, but I feel like mankind is really poised for some major change in the next 5 years. I will use a car analogy; instead of a face lift and small cosmetic changes from the 2016 to 2017 model, we are about to see a complete shift due in part to these technologies and the masses being more forward thinking than ever. Look at retail, car industry, energy, etc for industries that are completely changing forever. Just think what AI and Blockain are going to do. The same company that held the seminar on AI recently, is setting up another one on Blockchain. This Data Analytics company out of Palo Alto, the forefront of technology. Cheers
     
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  3. ravenspear
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    ravenspear Contributor Read The Millionaire Fastlane FASTLANE INSIDER Speedway Pass

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    As a developer/programmer, I disagree with this statement, fundamentally.

    A machine cannot author a complex program to control something by itself because it lacks any reason to do so. Even if the machine was writing the actual code or taking some action of control that reduces effort on the part of the human, a human would still be involved to tell the machine at some higher level what to do. Everything that happens in terms of programming happens because a human directed it to.

    This library needs to run faster so the algorithm needs to be optimized.
    This button is green when it should be red.
    This product doesn't work as well as it needs to (for humans) so it needs to be redesigned before it goes back to the 3D printer.

    Machines are great tools, but ultimately they don't really have the intelligence to identify problems in the first place. Human value perception will always be the foundational reason for any action to be taken.

    Machines are great at reducing effort for complex repetitive tasks that are being taken because a problem has been identified, a solution designed, and now the machine knows what tasks to perform and the human knows how performing those tasks will fit into the larger scheme of things. That's really what their role is and I don't see that fundamentally changing any time in the near future.
     
    Last edited: May 24, 2017 at 1:57 PM
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  4. Brian C.
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    Brian C. Slingshot, Engage. Read The Millionaire Fastlane FASTLANE INSIDER Speedway Pass

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    Absolute horse shit.

    How many more people are going to add their version of a doomsday scenario? Their version of the apocalypse?

    "The world is going to end because of the environment." "Because of government corruption." "Because of inequality." "Because of societal conflicts." "Because of war." "Because of a specific date." "Because of an asteroid." And now because of automation...

    I've heard Elon Musk speak about the dangers of AI, and I get it (especially in regard to military application), but automation being the driving force of societal conflict and decline in the happiness of the world over the next 3 decades?

    Can you be anymore pessimistic? Especially as an entrepreneur? Someone who solves problems?

    And it's awfully ironic that the owner of a global trade platform repeatedly denounces Populism as "another major threat to the liberal global order," warning "that retreating from globalism could cause serious trouble, even armed conflict, around the world."

    Regardless, to say the world will see much more pain than happiness is flawed, negative, and pessimistic thinking. And I highly disagree.
     
    Last edited: May 24, 2017 at 11:54 PM
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  5. loop101
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    loop101 Bronze Contributor Read The Millionaire Fastlane I've Read UNSCRIPTED Speedway Pass

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    One good pandemic, and robots will be the least of our worries.
     
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  6. Brian C.
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    Brian C. Slingshot, Engage. Read The Millionaire Fastlane FASTLANE INSIDER Speedway Pass

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    No kidding! Most scarily plausible of them all.
     
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  7. Emperor2020
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    Are you not excited that your power to command labour is being completely revolutionised? It is not inconceivable that what in the past took a company of 100, 1,000 or even 10,000 employees could be completed by one person.
     
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  8. TJH
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    TJH New Contributor Read The Millionaire Fastlane

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    Nobody knows what will happen in the future, but thinking about the probabilistic scenarios can help guide decisions. Jobs will certainly disappear due to AI and automation, but there are counter-forces that will hopefully balance any sudden disruptions to labor markets. One of the benefits of productivity improvements is supposed to be a general price deflation of goods produced, but this is offset by inflation and superior, and more sophisticated products, making previous products obsolete. Consumers will see better deals on future goods. Another problem is demographics. Developed countries are having fewer babies, leading to a trend of populations getting older. There will be greater pressure on social support systems for change. I can see systems like social security, medicare and medicaid evolving so that a greater part of the population receives some kind of government assistance, such as a universal basic income. I'm optimistic about the future, and my view is mega-corporations will be largely automated, while the service sector serving niches will be led by entrepreneurs and innovators.
     

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