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In the next 30 years, the world will see much more pain than happiness

Discussion in 'General Entrepreneurship and Startup' started by William, Apr 24, 2017.

  1. William
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    William J Read The Millionaire Fastlane FASTLANE INSIDER Speedway Pass

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    I think there is some truth that there will be a loss of jobs as more machines take over, but such articles usually neglect how other jobs will open up. At its core, more jobs will be related to the repair and maintenance of machines, and as a broader picture, more jobs will shift online.

    Either way, more pain means more problems to solve. While a specific subset of people will fail to adapt and will feel pain, others will capitalize on learning new skillsets and sowing seeds early on in emerging markets.
     
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    G-Man Platinum Contributor Read The Millionaire Fastlane I've Read UNSCRIPTED FASTLANE INSIDER Speedway Pass

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    "In the next 30 years, the world will see much more pain than happiness because jobs will be replaced by machines." .... At what point in the last 150 years has that not been true?
     
  4. Cparsons
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    In America, 25 year olds today are much worse off than their parents were. More debt, less opportunities. The internet and robots were a contributing factor, but not the driving force. They will continue to play a role, but they are not to blame.
     
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    It's impossible to say. The world will be very different, that's for sure.

    The big disruptors will likely be automated transportation (aka self driving cars and trucks). With tens of millions of people all over the world working in ground transportation, you're going to see a big shift away from drivers and toward logistical management personnel.

    All we know is that if new types of jobs don't open like some predict (and many don't!), then we're going to be dealing with a serious crisis.
     
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    Now it's going to become reality sooner than most people think. A.I is better then humans at image and speech recognition already, can apply things learned in one game to another one. It can drive, create music, predict a lot of things. New jobs will of course pop up, but will probably in less volume.
     
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    Who knows, I wouldn't like to look to the next 30 years with pessimism lol... uh oh Wall-e here we come.
     
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  8. samsig03
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    Scary and I tend to agree, here is why:

    I was at a demo 2 weeks ago for my 9-5 with a current data analytics software vendor we use. They partnered with an AI company (artificial intelligence) and wanted to show the beta version of some of the integration. There were about 90 people in the room and you could hear a pin drop while this demo was taking place. The room was full of analysts (Business, Financial etc), engineers and IT personnel from the oil and gas industry. For about 15 minutes the sales rep demoed their AI could do from an analytics stand point and it was truly remarkable and scary. I took it as another sign to get my S*&% together and get a business going. Peoples jaws were on the floor. Here is a synopsis of the demo:

    The sales rep showed a map of the US with hundreds of dots that represented oil and gas wells for 1 specific company. He then clicked on a well and a paragraph popped up with details on this well. Appeared to be written by an analyst for his/her manager. Then proceeded to click on another and another. Each one showing a paragraph of complete sentences with valid and understandable data. Then the sales rep said all these paragraphs were 100% written by our AI! No human interaction except that the data tables were mapped but the AI is doing the interpretation. He then proceed to pull out an Amazon Alexa and said Alexa " What was the top performing well for 2016 and what was the YOY production for that well? " Alexa responded with the beautifully crafted answer in 2 seconds! Are you getting the picture, Alexa/AI is already doing the data interpretation NOW in 2017! Why do you need an analyst that will take a week or longer to analyze and present the data at the weekly meeting when Alexa can do it instantly! No HR, benefits, 401K, NO OVERHEAD! The CEO can now have Alexa sitting on his desk whenever he has a question.

    BTW this AI company also has its AI writing articles for AP, Yahoo. That is right, some of the news you are reading is generated by a robot. Small percentage now, but only growing. They are seeing 50% less grammatical errors than when a human types it! The company is Natural Language Generation | Automated Insights, Inc. Take a look they generated 1.5 billion pieces of content last year alone!

    You are no longer un-informed.

    *please disregard the spelling errors a human wrote this on his lunch break.
     
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  9. Dylan_91
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    Eventual human extinction?

    I guess everything dies off eventually in evolution, as more than we can imagine becomes true.

    10000 years ago a robot (AI) was impossible, the thought was nearly impossible to imagine. It can only grow further if restrictions aren't enacted in my opinion..

    OK, not in my lifetime or any on here unless that miracle live forever pill is discovered, but could the climate be pointing towards deeper evolution, 10000 years is nothing compared to forever.

    Robots run the earth? Until something grander is discovered? Who knows, but shifting towards more modernly, we are seeing a serious increase in robot/tech capability than we saw 3 years ago and 3 years ago was stronger than 3 years before that. With time the further it goes the further it grows.

    A Super Nintendo is much different than what we have today, and to think that was minuscule in "forever" time.

    I like to keep an open mind because we're only here briefly.
     
  10. Contrarian
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    I don't understand why protecting jobs is supposed to be a big deal.

    Jobs suck. That's why this forum exists in the first place. 100-and-something years ago, the vast majority of people were self-employed. And so they probably will be again. And most people will be happier and better off for it.

    Employment is a means, not an end.
     
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    Um ok. Simple, not necessarily easy, solution:

    Don't be someone losing their job to a robot.

    Own the robot or robot ecosystem.
     
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  12. samsig03
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    Yes true, but the technology is not well understood and it is hard to pinpoint what jobs could be lost. Of course there are some easy ones to identify; manufacturing, Amazon warehouse product mover, etc. But I never thought that writers, content creators, analysts could be replaced in less than 10 years.

    I agree with your overall outlook, start your own business that utilizes/exploits this technology or wait around and gamble on being replaced.

    Shoot truck and taxi drivers maybe replaced or primed for major disruption in 5 years with autonomous driving. Uber/Lyft drivers never thought their shelf life was less than a decade and they don't realize they are funding the technology and research that will replace them.
     
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  13. TeveTorbes
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    I think Ma will be at the top of the Forbes' list within a decade. But he's wrong.

    There's a big difference between happiness and fulfillment. Happiness is cheap and fleeting - chasing it is as crazy as chasing sadness; it's just another emotion. Fulfillment is meaningful, it's what we earn from work.

    And as we create more powerful tools, we'll be able to leverage more, work more, achieve more and be more fulfilled, not less.

    People often see change as negative because they extrapolate the present instead of understanding that systems are integrated and evolve together.
     
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  14. Denim Chicken
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    Robots have elevated the standard of living for everyone involved. I personally wouldn't have a problem getting to the point where robots handle everything, in which case human labor in itself is obsolete. Elon has mentioned when we get to that point, universal basic income may be a good solution which I agree with. The idea now is that you work and you get paid, everyone has to work. When you have robots who can do it for you in a large scale, the entire paradigm changes.

    Mark Cuban also has suggested universal basic income for right now, which sounds like a good idea. Rather than all these programs for different needs, SSI, disability, unemployment, etc. everyone just gets $xx,000 every year and that's it. That solves all the homelessness, the people who can't work, the bureaucratic monster departments using tax payers money on approving/disapproving all these claims, managing it, etc. You get a baseline salary if you're a US citizen enough to live and that's it. No unemployment, no SSi, nothing.

    Now put that together with robots who can produce much more than human beings which results in a lot more resources and efficient production for humans, it could be a better future for everyone. This is assuming the allocation of the wealth generated by the robots is fair, which if history taught us anything, probably not going to be.

    AI is such a fascinating topic, maybe we all get wiped clean.
     
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  15. G-Man
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    G-Man Platinum Contributor Read The Millionaire Fastlane I've Read UNSCRIPTED FASTLANE INSIDER Speedway Pass

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    I think you're both right and wrong. For people with a producer mentality, that is very true. They will see all these advances as exciting opportunity. I'm just not sure that a producer mentality is the majority worldview..... :(
     
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  16. TeveTorbes
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    TeveTorbes Silver Contributor FASTLANE INSIDER Speedway Pass

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    Agree, but how would they not benefit?

    For example, even though I bitch about my smartphone, it's a revolutionary device that has moved us forward, created immense wealth and brought unheard of technology to those who'd never be able acquire it otherwise. And the benefits are far-reaching. If you look at South Korea, Brazil, Turkey and others that have corruption scandals right now - this is incredibly good news. It was never corruption before, it was just par for the course, the way things got done. Now they're scandals! People are more informed and have the technology to raise their standards and do something about it.

    Technology doesn't extract a piece of the pie and leave a hole, it creates lots of little complete pies that are accessible to more people.
     
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    I believe this amounts to what we're creating now has a cause and effect on the future. I've heard some say that technology will get so complicated people won't even understand how to use it. I believe we're already pushing the boundaries of psychology. We are entering new territory, and of course there's going to be emotional, mental, physical, financial pain. The world isn't going to be like past generations. It's changed just in the last six years. I can say it's already not like the world I lived in growing up. Thirty years from now, it won't be like now. That's evolution.

    Are people teachable?

    If people hold on to ignorance they're going to be in pain. If you only use your left brain you may have a more difficult time. If you're closed minded. If you're set in your beliefs. Resist change. Have a fixed mindset. If you're not going to educate yourself, you're going to be left behind.
    Lack of knowledge is your down fall.

    I"m sure there will be chaos and confusion because 95% of the population wants to hear what they want to hear. They want to believe what they want to believe. The natural evolution through the centuries is always destroy, destruct, collapse, rebuild. What's new?


    What did we learn from the past reveals a lot of mistakes already. Entrepreneurs are creating the technology. The point being we're all creating the cause and effect it has on humanity in the future.
    Fortunately, does any innovator know how their invention will effect society. The Light bulb ended up being a huge invention.

    They invented bridges, dams, airplanes, trains, automobiles.

    I remember when I was waiting to board the plane to the Netherlands, it was delayed, because the technology wasn't working on the computer in the plane. So, there's responsibility for people's lives. Like they stated, above, obviously they had technicians to go on the plane and fix the computer before I got on to fly from America over here.

    Technology can't work on it's own without a technician behind it in some scenario.

    I'm not particularly fond of all the technology being created, but I understand I have to adapt to drones, robotics, and creepy individuals without souls being built to serve me in civilization. Psychologically some stuff is already pushing us beyond what we've never had to deal with as Generation X or Baby Boomers.

    I believe there are people already in pain because they're not like us in the Fastlane who are even paying attention or keeping up with all the technology, psychology, and social paradigms. I know people back home who are still in the same place 12 years ago.

    I believe I've personally people will be slammed into facing the fact their in survival of the fittest, ready or not! They will have to do something different or suffer. I believe people are already starting to feel this. And some people are just naive and think, life isn't changing. We'll all be fine, and I don't have to change. I'm comfortable and I don't need to get out of my comfort zone.

    I'm aware just like people in Fastlane, and sometimes I get resistance by bringing up this stuff.

    I think I've just decided myself, you can be the messenger, but until life slams into them and they find there is no alternative, they're not going to budge from their self-limiting beliefs. I think it isn't really my problem. It's my job to navigate myself, and my son in the right direction. There's only so much you can control with other people. They make their choices. They're the one's who have to live with the outcome.

    Some of us are creating our futures, and others are waiting for life to happen. Usually the strongest survive. Survival of the fittest! They are either biologically, chemically, psychologically, and socially fit or not!

    Bottom line: Why struggle, fight with others, and worry about them if they're not listening in the first place? You have no control over them. The only power you have is over yourself. Best case scenario you share the message. If they Ignore it, they willfully choose to stay in ignorance until it smacks them in the face.
     
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  18. OldFaithful
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    Spoiler Alert: Mini Rant below, skip to "EoR" if you value your sanity!

    Please @Denim Chicken don't take this personally, but I believe Mr. Cuban is dead wrong!

    This has already been tried several times. What has failed to be considered is "human nature". Once the robot programmer has his $xx,000 per year, he or she quits programming the robots. (Human nature says: "Why go in to work today, I'm already getting paid.) Then he/she goes on permanent vacation, and everything in society goes to pot! Who is John Galt?

    EoR

    Sorry, I was triggered. Pavlovian response occurred. :(



    It has already been briefly mentioned by @TeveTorbes that doing work is more than earning a check.
    There is a lot to this concept. We all know that when work is meaningless and lacks fulfillment...it sucks! No matter what the pay, you eventually quit (or mentally "check out") because it's a mind dulling, soul sucking, life killing, JOB! Many of us also know that when our work is meaningful and rewarding, we actually love doing it.

    No matter what technology might bring in the future, humans will need to create/find meaning in their lives. I believe the act of creating or finding meaning will always require an expenditure of effort. If AI takes over all of the work for mankind, we are doomed. Human nature can't change at the pace of technological change and we would be ill prepared for that much leisure time. What happens now when people have too much free time on their hands?

    I know...I'm an old crank!

    Here's a cute picture of some kittens to help return optimism and sanity to your day! Enjoy!
    upload_2017-4-26_8-4-1.jpeg
     
  19. G-Man
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    You're preaching to the choir. In the context of the sort of societal ennui that Ma describes, you gotta remember that perception matters more than reality. I've commented in another thread that when I worked for an NGO, I've literally sat in an air conditioned well lit room at a table full of Apple laptops listening to everyone complain about how ineffective capitalism is - and no one saw the irony.

    Someone living in the housing projects in Chicago has A/C, running water, electrcity, television, cell phones, all things that couldn't be found in a King's palace not that long ago. What matters though, is in the context of the wider society they see around them, they have a sense of being dispossessed and left behind.

    It's all perception - kind of like your observation about finding fulfillment.
     
  20. Contrarian
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    You don't even have to go into "basic income" territory to see this. It's evident in straight-salary employment.

    Why work any harder than I have to, if I get paid the same amount anyway?

    Why not take a sick day - it's part of the benefits package!

    Why try to make improvements if I'll only innovate myself out of a job?

    The other irony is that capitalism is so effective, most people who haven't taken the time to really study how the world works believe that incredible wealth is something that just exists in nature. It's taken completely for granted. As if it were the default state of being - if only all those privileged rich people wouldn't keep hogging it all!

    The reality, of course, is the opposite.
     
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    Technology has turned SCARCITY -> ABUNDANCE.

    If you get a chance, try to listen to Peter Diamandis - Author, Bold & Abundance. Peter Diamandis

    There's so much opportunity out there, more than you think.
     
  22. lowtek
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    I've started studying machine learning / ai and it's actually kind of scary. Not in the "they're gonna kill us all" sense of the word, but in the "what room will there be for us?" sense

    Do not make the status quo fallacy. Just because advancing technology has yielded better jobs for humans, more detached from the stuff we don't want to do, doesn't mean it will be that way in the future. In the past more tech just meant replacing manual labor with machines, and letting humans do the thinking. Machines are rapidly gaining the ability to "think" and solve problems. And no, it won't always be the case that we need humans to program them either. There is literally no task that a human does now that a machine cannot do, fundamentally.

    The scale and magnitude of this problem cannot be understated. Figuring out what to do with displaced humans is probably the single biggest problem we are going to face in our lifetimes.
     
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    ... is also the biggest opportunity for those who are building businesses.
     
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    I'm going to start a business that will take care of all the needs of those useless humans. Everything we do will be Large and we'll have everything you need to Buy! Hmmm...I think I'll call it "Buy n Large"
     
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    Well...

    It's a value proposition like any other.

    Whichever one provides the best value for the money will have the jobs. (barring government intervention)

    Machines don't hire lawyers when their feelz get hurt...
    Machines don't make demands for pay and benefits that they "deserve"...
    Machines don't have to get paid on Monday instead of Friday to reduce the number that come in drunk on Saturday...

    In our current state, humans have quite the value hurdle to overcome compared to machines.
     
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