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Hyperinflation starting? What's happening in your area? Post your ground reports.

CareCPA

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Exactly. As I mentioned earlier, the bottleneck isn't in lumber. It's specifically in the finishing of the lumber.

That's why growers are making less money than usual (little demand from the mills), but the mills are charging ridiculous prices (high demand from end-users).
This is why I've adjusted my home projects for this year.
I can still get rough cut lumber pretty cheap in my area (all logged and milled within a couple miles of my house). But anything that requires "hardware store" lumber is waiting until next year.

I don't have the economics background that @JScott has, but my gut is telling me that a lot of the price increases are due to easy cash (stimulus) and supply chain issues. When the supply chain is fixed, and the stimulus is spent, I think we move closer to normal.
This assumes that we don't keep issuing stimulus checks, of course...
 
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Lyinx

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The M2 money supply measures the amount of currency actually in circulation. You can see all Fed data on this site: Federal Reserve Economic Data | FRED | St. Louis Fed.

Here are details about the M2 supply:


And here's an article from last year with some more info (though keep in mind the data is old -- M2 has increased significantly since then)...

So, Basically 80% of the money in existence has been printed in my lifetime (93 till today)?!
 
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Guest-5ty5s4

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Yup... It all started in the early 80s when the Reagan administration decided that the best strategy to win the cold war was to ramp up defense spending, forcing the Soviet Union to do the same thing, essentially bankrupting them in the process.

It was a brilliant (and successful) strategy, but when our politicians started to realize that they could just print money without much ramification, things started to snowball. And here we are...
@JScott any particular reason why you've been on the forum for 14 years and still have not read the books?

Where are your "I've Read The Millionaire Fastlane " and "I've Read Unscripted " badges?

Too cool to show support? ;-)
 
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Guest-5ty5s4

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No particular reason. I actually own two copies of The Millionaire Fastlane (one I bought a long time ago to support MJ and the forum and one that just ended up on my bookshelf somehow), and I often recommend it to others based on what I know about it and the reviews from others.

That said, I don't tend to read mindset books (just not my thing) and I think I have the nuts-and-bolts of starting, growing and scaling a business relatively down pat.

I prefer to read textbooks, case studies and 10-Ks... :)

Also, I'm a really slow reader, so I need to prioritize what I read. I wish I could read quickly -- I'd definitely go through more books than I currently do... There are actually a LOT of popular books that people would be tremendously surprised to learn that I haven't read.
That makes sense but...

This is a forum for those books, isn't it?

Why do you come here? Self promotion for your books?
 
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D

Deleted78083

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I have made the case in the past that this extreme printing wasn't gonna cause a weakening of the strength of the US dollar. Let me show you why.

How do you measure the value of the USD?

Since we're talking about printing-induced inflation, we need to measure the value of the USD against other currencies to see if indeed, excess USD volume will debase the currency.

Let's imagine that 1 EUR = 1.25 USD

The FED prints 1 trillion USD. The ECB prints 0,9 trillion EUR.

Has the USD lost value compared to the EUR?

Let's do the math: 1 trillion x 1 USD = 1 trillion USD
0,9 trillion x 1 EUR = 0,9 trillion EUR = 1,1125 trillion USD.

Surprise!!! The USD actually "gained value" compared to the EUR, since the ECB printed more.

In real life, the value of a currency depends on MUCH MORE than just its volume. As long as external actors are buying your currency, you can allow yourself to print. Problem arise when people stop buying it....

Side note: this is just an example, I don't know if the ECB actually printed more or less than the FED.

What I do know though, is that while the FED did print tones of money, the USD has never made up for such a small part of worldwide currency reserve, currently making up for 59%. That means that comparatively to their original volume of currency, other central banks printed much more than the FED has.

I wouldn't worry too much about the US economy.

Companies and government alike want to take manufacturing home (or at least, out of the hands of China), the economy is still leading the world in terms of innovation, people are still working and consuming as hard as before, you gonna have a giant stimulus plan to change the electrical grid and infrastructures, and the USD still appears much stronger than the rest of currencies worldwide (*Italy's shadow has entered the chat*).

I do think that the inflation you are perceiving is simply due to excess demand compared to available supply.

Ironically, the big risk in this pandemic wasn't printing a ton of money. It was preventing people from working.

As Elon Musk would say" "if you don't make stuff, there is no stuff".

If there is less stuff, the price increases.

Simple.
 
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Guest-5ty5s4

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Wow, what's with the passive aggressiveness here today?!?!?

Let me suggest a good rule of thumb (and one I like to follow myself): If you're gonna be an a**hole, at least don't be an ignorant a**hole. It's a bad combination.

To provide a bit of history and hopefully cure your ignorance, The Millionaire Fastlane came out about 3 years after I joined this forum (and after this forum was created). MJ wrote TMF a few years after the forum was created...

That said, if @MJ DeMarco prefers the forum to only be about the books (or for those who have read the books), that's his choice. I assume he'll chime in if that's the case... It's his forum, and if he ever even hints that I shouldn't be here, I will happily go away.

But, believe it or not, there are some people here who have gotten value from the thousands of posts I've made over the past decade. There are people I met on this forum that I've mentored in real life. There are people on this forum I've done deals with, that I've invested with/in, and who I continue to advise.

If you haven't taken any value from my contributions, consider that perhaps that's not my fault? Or just ignore me. I promise you won't hurt my feelings.

As for self-promotion of my books, I was here 5 years before I wrote my first book, and the vast majority of my thousands of posts were from those first five years. Though perhaps I just spent hundreds of hours writing content in hopes that a half-decade later I'd write a book about a subject that isn't very popular here and I'd mention it every few months; I'll let you decide if that's a reasonable explanation or not.

Btw, I can count on one hand the number of threads where I've mentioned my books in this forum without someone else mentioning them or asking about them. And, btw, if I never make another penny from my books, it won't impact my life.

All that said, it sounds like you are concerned about whether I should be here or not. Here's an idea: Perhaps you should grab lunch with MJ and you guys can chat about whether I should stay or go. I'm sure he'll appreciate your input. Let me know what you two decide...
I don't know MJ and he didn't put me up to this; I am 100% asking legitimate questions on my own so don't blame him.

Not sure why you would think that.

Anyway, maybe you should read those books - they're pretty good!

As for hurting your feelings, looks like I did already?

I only poke fun because you seem to have such a huuuuge impression of yourself. Like, bigger than anybody else I've met on this forum, even the owner! LOL
 

Devampre

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Witnessing lumber and OSB skyrocket here in Saskatchewan Canada.

Housing has been on the steady climb as well. Crack houses in a city by a safe injection site go for $100k+ (and of course they don't take any photos of the interior to show potential buyers.)

Also, found it funny that my province wants to tax electric vehicle owners a flat annual rate. Likely because they don't get the tax money off of them from fuel.
 
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Lyinx

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I was being sarcastic. If MJ didn't want me here, I'm sure he'd have no problem letting me know.

He doesn't need you policing the forum for him. And while I could be wrong, I'm guessing he probably wouldn't be very happy about it you doing it...




I'm sure they are great. That's why I recommend them to others.

But given where I am in my professional career, I don't think they'd add much value.

I've run 9-figure businesses, I've been part of 10-figure acquisitions, I control nearly 9-figures in investments, and I sit on the board of a half-dozen startups.

Nothing against the books (again, I'm quite positive they're great), but I'm a good bit past the point where the value I'd get from them is worth the time I'd have to invest reading them...




No doubt. I'm rethinking all my life choices based on this conversation.




You know, I once claimed on this forum that much of my success came from luck. I took a lot of shit for that from people who claimed that luck has nothing to do with success.

So, now I claim that all my success comes from me being super awesome at all this business and investing stuff, because if it's not luck, clearly it must be my awesomeness.

But, that seems to bother people as well...

I guess just can't make anyone happy... Luckily, I don't care.
@JScott
your linked in link is unlinked
 
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Guest-5ty5s4

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Not sure if this has been mentioned in the thread yet, but a builder client of mine told me there are only a handful of sawmills left in America, and last summer's fires damaged two of them. Last I heard, they had not been brought back online, supply chain issues being what they are, replacement parts are difficult to get, mills have a waiting list to get the parts, but this information is a couple months old.

The whole story had a very Atlas Shrugged feel to it.
This right here sounds like the ultimate Fastlane opportunity.

Great observation!
 

JordanK

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Value of Irish household savings surpasses GDP of Latvia | BreakingNews.ie

The price of everything has gone up in Ireland. Houses going on the market for 299k selling for 460k. My meal prep & delivery company increased their prices, gas prices, Brexit happened in the UK so all our imports have customs tax now.

I think it's a combination of:

- Stimulus worldwide (USA gives stimmies, Bitcoin price rises, Irish person cashes out bitcoin and buys house/car. Multiply this around the world as people in poor countries bought these crypto assets too. It is disturbing their local economic systems.

- Global supply chain problems due to Covid19.

- Companies/Countries trying to reshore their production instead of getting it done abroad. The manufacturing industry in many western countries are terrible. Even if in Ireland we do high end manufacturing, a lot of the parts that facilitate that process are made abroad.

- Lack of supply in the housing market due to not enough building. Too much bureaucracy.

All of these things converging together.

I don't think we'll see big effects until most of the world is out of lockdown. We're still hunkered down here in Ireland unfortunately. Businesses aren't open and 1/4 of the country is on generous government welfare. We can only afford this due to the increased taxation collection on the multinationals based here who have increased profits during the pandemic.
 
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Phil Yu

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Doesnt really affect me and my family as we keep our cheap immigrants life style. we rarely buy stuff beside the essentials. I did noticed the price of new cars have been increasing year after year.
 

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CA73F24F-D64C-4085-9912-71382B6E2311.png

From “The Hustle” email today

If you want to get these emails it’s free.

Heres my link: Subscribe to The Hustle Daily Newsletter

I know I’m not allowed to share affiliate links but I get like a free t shirt or something if enough people sign up so surely that’s ok lol
 
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Lyinx

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MJ DeMarco

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GROUND REPORT:

I looked at a house in Scottsdale in 2018 that was listed for $1.39M. As you can see it sold it for $1.375.

The new owners painted the walls and changed the flooring. Nothing else was done. No kitchen upgrades, no new appliances, no walls torn down, nothing.

They relisted it for $4.5M and wanted to make $3M in 3 years for essentially doing nothing but sitting on their a$$.

Forced to reality, they now are being reasonable and have lowered the price, only wanting to make $2.5M in 3 years. Why have a job or a business? Just paint some walls and you can be a multimillionaire in just a few short years! :rofl:


1618502290308.png
 

Knowledgefactry

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What's happening in your area with respect to prices?

Food?
Housing?
Cost of Living?
Repair services?

Let's here some ground reports.
GROUND REPORT:

I looked at a house in Scottsdale in 2018 that was listed for $1.39M. As you can see it sold it for $1.375.

The new owners painted the walls and changed the flooring. Nothing else was done. No kitchen upgrades, no new appliances, no walls torn down, nothing.

They relisted it for $4.5M and wanted to make $3M in 3 years for essentially doing nothing but sitting on their a$$.

Forced to reality, they now are being reasonable and have lowered the price, only wanting to make $2.5M in 3 years. Why have a job or a business? Just paint some walls and you can be a multimillionaire in just a few short years! :rofl:


View attachment 37594
View: https://youtu.be/iNNUVEfoNmE


the reason we haven’t seen hyper inflation yet is because the economies all around the world except China and a few others are still largely at limited capacity. As soon as economies are fully operating inflation is likely to speed up as that fact along with unsure consumers have kept inflation low
 
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GuestUser4aMPs1

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You know...I really, really hope we're wrong about the hyperinflation narrative.

Not because I'm being naive, but because it would be very bad for a lot of people.

I have my own SHTF holdings in Metals, Crypto and a basket of Foreign Currencies so I'm less exposed to downside, but I'm not looking to get rich off a collapse and won't bet on a dollar crash for at least another 8-10 years.

I think prices can get wonky in the short term that's eventually corrected, but due to the USA's reserve currency status, I don't think we'll see Venezuela-style hyperinflation until an extreme, cataclysmic event shifts global power in its wake.

The reason being is that there's still a lot of dollars held in foreign central banks. So, I'd be more worried about hyperinflation if/when the USD loses its reserve status against a competing Yuan or (maybe) Crypto — At which point, lots of dollars stacked in foreign central banks will flood back into the USA and crash the value of the USD. But again, it'd take another extreme event for that to happen.

tl;dr Nobody knows what will happen, and I won't dwell on it. There's a lot of fear-mongering to go around. But it doesn't hurt to understand history and hold a little bit of SHTF assets ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
 

CallmeKenron

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I believe we are witnessing a massive hyperinflationary event underway as prices continue to skyrocket in all asset classes. Of course, this doesn't happen in 1 day or 1 week, but over the course of a year or two.

Meanwhile, the Fed continues to say inflation is under control. :rofl:

I've extracted some of the posts from the other INFLATION thread -- please use this thread to POST YOUR EXPERIENCE in your area/country/city of higher prices.

The mainstream narrative is that inflation is under control -- I contend that it is running in the double-digits and as always, the media and their sycophants are lying.

Of course, if you have a local experience of LOWER PRICES, feel free to post that too.

The only place I've found lower prices are in consumer electronics like televisions. Got make that propaganda easily accessible!
Houston, Texas

Steel prices are 2x what they were this time last year, all of my consumables for my operations are up 15-20%, Lumber prices are like 5x higher lol its insane.
 

e_fastlane

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Supply and demand is a pretty tried and true axiom in economics. What rationale would you propose for prices not dropping when supply increases?

Sure, businesses would love to arbitrarily raise prices, but that's not how it works. Business owners don't just get to say, "I'd like to raise prices today because I feel like making more money."

The market drives pricing, not business owners.



The whole point of raising interest rates (I'm assuming that's what you mean by "hand brake") is that it quells demand. It does this in two ways:

1. Credit is more expensive, so people buy less; and
2. Banks pay higher interest, which encourages people to save versus spend.

This reduction in demand -- based on my point above about pricing being driven by supply and demand -- will reduce prices.

But, that assumes that the increase in prices is being demand driven.

But, as we seem to agree, in this case, the increase in prices is supply driven.

Raising interest rates has no impact on supply (not technically true, but true enough), so increasing rates would have essentially no counter-inflationary effect in supply-constrained environment like the one we're in.

SUMMARY:

There's no doubt (in my mind) that we're going to see inflation simply based on the increase in the M1 and M2 money supplies. But, that's not what we're seeing today, and I don't expect we'll see that until demand increases dramatically. We'll see a pop in GDP before we see true cost-push inflation.

And if I had to bet, my bet would be 3-5 years from now before we start seeing true inflation not related to supply constraints.

That said, I'm guessing just like everyone else, so take everything I say for what it's worth...not much.
Geberally, when you talk, I listen! I do have a few things to question about your assessments on this thread though.

While supply/demand works well in fields that are very commodified, I'm not sure I agree it may apply to this spike. Atleast not in the generally understood way (since technically supply/demand could be stretched to encompass just about everything about economic trades). Heres what I mean.... Finished lumber will obviously go down once supply catches up and may even become "cheaper" than before. But thats because it's a well oiled industry with professional actors that act much more predictably. On the other hand.....why would Mercedes drop the price of their G63, when they see the price tolerance for their product isn't 160k (already absurd) but turns out to be 220k (prices they go for on eBay right now after someone buys gets their hands on one). I dont think its even a supply issue on many expensive goods as companies are redirecting the resources (intra-company) from less profitable goods to these expensive more profitable ones. I think this "transitory" inflation wave will only teach many makers of consumables that there is actually alot of room for price growth on everything that isn't usually just a commodity that people buy based on price. Especially higher end things like the Mercedes example. So you may be able to get a bottom of the barrel Kia for as great of a deal as before (soon), but good luck if you want a Mercedes.

Speaking of transitory, when you use this word to describe inflation , can you explain what you are implying? Are you implying that inflation may rise to xx% but then when supply finally catches up the prices will go back down to what they were pre-inflationary period (plus normal expected inflation %)? Or are you implying that there may be a period of xx% of inflation but it will then slow down to normal low 2% inflation after supply catches up (but the higher prices from the surge are here to stay). The reason I am asking is that if you are implying situation number 1, once again it sounds like there are serious implications. Commodities like lumber will handle it just fine. But what about houses/cars/other expensive goods! People are buying homes that were just 500k a few years back for 3x that right now and it's going up insanely every day. Alot of it is really stemming from a supply shortage as you say. But unlike lumber, an inflation correction here is implying a very serious crash that effects consumers (housing is the most expensive thing someone generally buys!). I dont see how there could be an inflation correction without a serious correction in prices on something that is a big side effect of this inflation (housing).
 
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e_fastlane

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As a side note, everyone is using the word hyperinflation, but I really hope that it's either out of ignorance of its meaning or just hyperbole (I too say hyperinflation in convo!). Real hyperinflation is 50% inflation A MONTH. Not on just a few goods like lumber because of supply issues, but on the economy at large. So milk,oil,housing,etc would go up 50% every month

I assume the primary fear is just much higher than normal inflation. Like let's say 10% a year like the 70s. Which could still be devastating to those who saved money, but not the same as hyperinflation
 
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e_fastlane

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If that's the case (and that's a big IF), I would suggest that it means that these manufacturers did a poor job of pricing their products in the first place. If, with sufficient supply, someone is willing to pay $60K more for a car than the car is being sold for, this is pricing issue, not an inflation issue.

Occam's Razor would suggest that it's more like supply/demand is out of whack than Mercedes screwed up their pricing models by 30%+...



I haven't been using the term "transitory" -- others here used it, and I assumed it to mean that the assumption is that this is a temporary fluctuation in pricing that would correct itself. My responses have all been based on that definition -- if that's not what was meant, feel free to ignore my responses using the same term.
So, just to clarify.... Do you believe this "temporary fluctuation" applies to things like current housing prices as well (Phoenix is up ~20% since pandemic started alone) and there will be a large correction or are you just referring to things like lumber/steel/etc.

Your point on Mercedes pricing is a good one and exposed a large gap in my argument that I baked in but didn't articulate. I didn't mean to imply that Mercedes "didn't do the math". More so that the current market is exposing underlying fundamental changes. There has been a K shaped recovery where many of the lower class and part of the median class are either struggling or doing OK, meanwhile many of the people that were doing good are doing GREAT. The why is probably for a different thread (Everything from government action to just plain old dumb luck that white collar jobs are more amenable to stay at home work). But atleast in the short term, I think sophisticated companies likely see that the lower end consumers can't afford higher prices but higher end consumers are up to their ears flush with cash to burn. Hopefully that context helps you understand what I was saying better and the thinking behind examples like Kia likely won't see higher prices.
 
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Guest-5ty5s4

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So, just to clarify.... Do you believe this "temporary fluctuation" applies to things like current housing prices as well (Phoenix is up ~20% since pandemic started alone) and there will be a large correction or are you just referring to things like lumber/steel/etc.

Your point on Mercedes pricing is a good one and exposed a large gap in my argument that I baked in but didn't articulate. I didn't mean to imply that Mercedes "didn't do the math". More so that the current market is exposing underlying fundamental changes. There has been a K shaped recovery where many of the lower class and part of the median class are either struggling or doing OK, meanwhile many of the people that were doing good are doing GREAT. The why is probably for a different thread (Everything from government action to just plain old dumb luck that white collar jobs are more amenable to stay at home work). But atleast in the short term, I think sophisticated companies likely see that the lower end consumers can't afford higher prices but higher end consumers are up to their ears flush with cash to burn. Hopefully that context helps you understand what I was saying better and the thinking behind examples like Kia likely won't see higher prices.
The K-shape is due to the fact that inflation causes asset values to boom and explode higher, while it causes normal wages, emergency funds, savings, etc to be worth less.

Basically, the way that the economists in DC deal with downturns mostly benefits people who have a shit load of assets. Printing more money and giving out more money does exactly this.

Inflation: makes the rich richer and the poor poorer ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
(at least, until there aren't enough consumers, businesses close, and layoffs go too far)

Before ol' Scott goes on a long rant about how wonderful it is to pay down your debt with inflated dollars, remember, most poor folks have shit credit anyway so they don't have 5 mortgages on commercial real estate, for example.

Now I am all for business and being rich - I'm just pointing out the reality and hypocrisy some people exude on this topic.
 
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Guest-5ty5s4

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For reference, Scott is my last name (if you care)... J is my first name...

And I was under the impression that the people on this forum are investors looking to make sophisticated financial plays to maximize their returns. When I talk to people like that, I provide information about sophisticated financial plays to maximize returns.

When I talk to "poor folks," I have different recommendations...

Sorry, figured that would be obvious...otherwise I would have been clearer about that.




Not sure how giving sophisticated advice to a forum filled with sophisticated (and wannabe sophisticated) people counts as hypocrisy, but I'm not going to dumb myself down just because what I say might not apply to everyone here...
The only reason why I give you shit is because no matter what you say, ever, you always focus on how smart you are and how you do everything perfectly right.

It’s entertaining to see how cleverly you can make anything into a “win.”

Like the thread on “worst financial decisions” - J posts a mistake but - PSYCH! It was a win!

Didn’t see that one coming

Maybe someday we will all be perfect and all-knowing like you. But I’m afraid that no mere mortal can ever compare to the J.
 
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Guest-5ty5s4

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Here's the thing. I post in less than 1% of the threads on this forum. There's a reason for that: In less than 1% of the threads on this forum I probably know more than most people here. In a few cases, I may even know more than anybody here.

I could be like lots of other people here who chime in on nearly every post with half-assed bullshit, but unlike some people, I don't do half-assed bullshit.

Clearly my confidence is threatening to you -- if it weren't, you would simply ignore my posts and not waste your valuable time responding. But, you can't seem to do that, can you?

Look, here's some sincere advice:

There are too many people in this world who will never achieve their true potential because of self-esteem issues. But, instead of being angry at me because of my confidence, perhaps you should focus your energy on YOUR confidence.

Take all that energy that you are plowing into insulting a random guy on the Internet, and instead, focus that energy on improving YOU.
You have some great advice. The arrogance is extremely off-putting. Those aren't mutually exclusive.

I just used info out of one of your books to make about $160,000 on a deal. I'm probably less than half your age.

Keep giving your advice and keep working on the humility :)
 
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Timmy C

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There's a reason I only give advice on 1% of the topics here.

I'm bad at about 99% of things.

Humility is part of the 99%.

Also, picking the optimal size Tupperware for the amount of food left in on the plate. I'm really bad at that too.

And most other stuff.

All that aside, congratulations on that deal. That sincerely makes me very happy, whether I had anything to do with it or not.

I love seeing people be successful. It's the reason I spend my time here giving advice on the 1%... ;)

I value your insight mate.
 

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Glasgow & Malaga
You have some great advice. The arrogance is extremely off-putting. Those aren't mutually exclusive.

I just used info out of one of your books to make about $160,000 on a deal. I'm probably less than half your age.

Keep giving your advice and keep working on the humility :)
Which book was that?
 

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