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How To Verify If Niche Is Big Enough?

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HugoMoreno

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Hello I’ve had tiny success as a drop shipper before (15K a month in sales - ~3K in profit)

Now I want to build a real brand..one of my ideas is to do “print on demand” with unique art work pieces that would 100% belong to me and my brand

Question is..when I check the monthly searches for “my niche + art”

I get about 1K - 10K a month searched

would that be enough to build a 7 figure business ?

for example, iKonick (makes millions) creates art for entrepreneurs and “entrepreneur art” and related keywords also only get 1K - 10K a month

So I’m guessing my niche would work ?

Question is...

What are the ways you verify a niches T.A.M. (Total available market)

How do you determine a niche is worth going after?
 

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sparechange

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Feedback loop, if people are expressing interest in the product & giving you $ for it.

Maybe there is some other ways, if so I'd love to know :hilarious:
 

amp0193

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What are the ways you verify a niches T.A.M. (Total available market)

TAM (Total Available Market) is way more broad than counting google searches. TAM is basically everyone who could possibly own your product, worldwide.

For razors: All men in the world over 16 who have facial hair. Take that # of people and multiply by the average number of times they need to buy razors over the year, multiplied by the price. TAM way in the billions.


TAM is a big overview looking at if a vertical is even worth spending time on. Also important... is it growing, or shrinking over time? You might have to dig into research, trends, and studies to learn this.


Next is SAM (Serviceable Addressable Market). This is the portion of the TAM that your product is really designed to reach.

For razors: Maybe you your plan is to sell old-fashioned straight razors in South Africa. What demographic uses straight razors? Old men? High-income, white-collar millennials? Whatever it is. How many of those people are in your target area and what would they buy a year. That's your SAM.


Finally you have SOM (Serviceable Obtainable Market). This is the percentage of the SAM pie that you think you and your company can capture.

For razors: So you're selling old-fashioned straight razors in South Africa like 10 other companies. Your plan is to sell through high-end men's fashion retailers, and to target only the high-income, white-collar millenials. At this point, you estimate the volume you could do through those retailers (how many of these stores are there in South Africa, how many would they sell). Whatever that number is... maybe it's 1 or 2 percent of the SAM... that's your SOM.


So to recap:

Think not only about what product or category. But also, about who you're going to target. How many of those people are there. How are you going to reach them. How many can be reached by that channel. These sorts of questions.

I would reverse engineer iKonick and figure out where there traffic is coming from. It might not be from google searches. New products, that require discovery and awareness before purchase, might not be searched for... if no one thinks to search for it, or even knows it exists.
 

amp0193

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As a more straightforward answer to your question in the OP.

Figure out how many people are in interested in this niche.

Figure out what kind of people buy art at this price level and why.

Then figure out if there's an overlap between the two.


It's possible that people interested in your niche, give no shits about art. And so seeing success in another niche, while intriguing, doesn't necessarily mean anything for your niche.
 

kleine2

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Hello I’ve had tiny success as a drop shipper before (15K a month in sales - ~3K in profit)

Now I want to build a real brand..one of my ideas is to do “print on demand” with unique art work pieces that would 100% belong to me and my brand

Question is..when I check the monthly searches for “my niche + art”

I get about 1K - 10K a month searched

would that be enough to build a 7 figure business ?

for example, iKonick (makes millions) creates art for entrepreneurs and “entrepreneur art” and related keywords also only get 1K - 10K a month

So I’m guessing my niche would work ?

Question is...

What are the ways you verify a niches T.A.M. (Total available market)

How do you determine a niche is worth going after?
Another consideration, are there ways to expand this afterwards?
Can you sell other related products for maybe a higher price point to the same customers further down the line?
Or, can you expand into additional niches duplicating the model if this one goes well but has a limited potential?
So, it's not just the size of TAM it's what other expansions you also see.
And another consideration. Is there a low cost way for you to check in practice whether you can make money with this? e.g. one painting, how do you reach customers? Is it profitable? etc
 

SEOguy

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Did you look at related keywords?

Did you check if the trend is upward, downward or consistent?

Did you look at comparable businesses/products and determine how much revenue they are producing?

Did you identify how much revenue you want and what you would be happy with?
 

HugoMoreno

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As a more straightforward answer to your question in the OP.

Figure out how many people are in interested in this niche.

Figure out what kind of people buy art at this price level and why.

Then figure out if there's an overlap between the two.


It's possible that people interested in your niche, give no shits about art. And so seeing success in another niche, while intriguing, doesn't necessarily mean anything for your niche.

Thanks for your reply

From my research, my niche searches for art between 1K - 10K a month

just not sure if that’s enough demand for a 7 figure business

Another consideration, are there ways to expand this afterwards?
Can you sell other related products for maybe a higher price point to the same customers further down the line?
Or, can you expand into additional niches duplicating the model if this one goes well but has a limited potential?
So, it's not just the size of TAM it's what other expansions you also see.
And another consideration. Is there a low cost way for you to check in practice whether you can make money with this? e.g. one painting, how do you reach customers? Is it profitable? etc

yes I will also sell other physical items to my niche to maximize monetization

If it turns out the niche isn’t that lucrative I will just have to duplicate the process in another niche

I know for sure people buy art in this niche because it gets sold on amazon and also up to 10K people search for “my niche” art

I’m going to reach my initial customers through paid ads...im going to sell the art at retail to test demand and how they react to price

if demand is there, I plan to build social media pages around my niche & also run lead Gen Ads to follow up with prospects through email with helpful content and product pitches
 
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HugoMoreno

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Did you look at related keywords?

Did you check if the trend is upward, downward or consistent?

Did you look at comparable businesses/products and determine how much revenue they are producing?

Did you identify how much revenue you want and what you would be happy with?

yes I’ve checked related keywords:
my niche + painting comes out to 1k - 10K also

It’s slowly trendy upwards consistently from 2008

yes I checked the competition and they get around 70K to 100K views a month

hard to now how much $ they’re making tho

1-2 million a year revenue would be good
 
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SEOguy

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yes I’ve checked related keywords:
my niche + painting comes out to 1k - 10K also

It’s slowly trendy upwards consistently from 2008

yes I checked the competition and they get around 70K to 100K views a month

hard to now how much $ they’re making tho

1-2 million a year revenue would be good

So far you've found 2 keywords that estimate 2-20K combined search volume a month. That sounds promising to say the least. Are these national or international numbers? Can you ship worldwide?

Always good to see an upward trend.

You can estimate competitor revenue in a number of ways. There are even some Amazon tools that are pretty accurate at determining daily sales/revenue numbers.

It sounds like a niche to me. Whether or not you'll make 1+ million a year, you should make more than enough to achieve financial/time/location freedom. Once you've dominated this niche, you could expand into similar territory and expand from there if you are determined to hit that financial goal.
 

Sanj Modha

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In Your Newsfeed
1 - Check eBay or Amazon for similar listings. Sort by units sold, number of reviews, best sellers etc.

2 - Type related buyer keywords into Google - can you see any sponsored ads?

3 - Dive deep in the Google Keyword tool and find traffic data for related buyer keywords

4 - Find competitor ads on FB. The longer they are running (high to low for impressions) the better for you. Nobody pays for traffic unless there's an ROI or they're stupid.
 

inputchip

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Why are you spending so much time trying to analyze the market? You almost have zero risk with a POD business. It's not like you are ordering a container of goods from overseas not knowing if they will sell or not.

Get your art out there and see if it sells. Start the feedback loop. Act, assess, adjust.
 

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Kevin88660

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You can get a feel how big you can get from success stories.

How big the entire market is largely inconsequential for niche business that is not winner take all..(unlike platforms like facebook, alibaba, google..). You can get cheaper as you get bigger but i dun think it is a winner take all business?

From the success examples you can pick an inspiration..if you think you can eventually do better than that guy... and he is making X amount a year. You can use X and multiplier by projected industry Compounded growth over three years, and then multiply by 0.2.

The reasoning is as a late comer if i can make only 20 percent of what I aspire to do..is it still worth my time 3 years later when I look back. If that number still looks big then it is pretty a “big enough” opportunity.
 

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