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How to find out if there's a need for my idea?

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VincentVega24

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Hey fellow Fastlaners, I really hope you all are healthy and stay safe throughout this global pandemic.

So, this is my fifth year selling my music online and I finally spotted a need and thought about a solution for it, which would be building a niche targeted App.
I received little feedback from a few people, mostly connections I built over years, so I'm not really sure how reliable those opinions are.

The big questions is now: What's a good technique for getting mass confirmation for my spotted need?

I thought about setting up a Survey form with a few clever questions and posting it to niche related forums or setting up a landing page and a facebook campaign but wouldn't that be too much regarding branding etc?

It would be great to get some feedback on those two approaches from above or even some other suggestions/tips/threads!


Salute and stay healthy,
Vincent
 

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ShepardHumphries

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Hey fellow Fastlaners, I really hope you all are healthy and stay safe throughout this global pandemic.

So, this is my fifth year selling my music online and I finally spotted a need and thought about a solution for it, which would be building a niche targeted App.
I received little feedback from a few people, mostly connections I built over years, so I'm not really sure how reliable those opinions are.

The big questions is now: What's a good technique for getting mass confirmation for my spotted need?

I thought about setting up a Survey form with a few clever questions and posting it to niche related forums or setting up a landing page and a facebook campaign but wouldn't that be too much regarding branding etc?

It would be great to get some feedback on those two approaches from above or even some other suggestions/tips/threads!


Salute and stay healthy,
Vincent
A tip ... I suggest making your test include someone paying something. Most nice folks will "glad hand" you all day and be encouraging ... but when asked to open their wallets up, not so much.
 

VincentVega24

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A tip ... I suggest making your test include someone paying something. Most nice folks will "glad hand" you all day and be encouraging ... but when asked to open their wallets up, not so much.
I really appreciate that tip, didn't really think about this!
Although, I could combine this with a campagin to raise funds... :jawdrop:
 

guidaccio05

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Hey fellow Fastlaners, I really hope you all are healthy and stay safe throughout this global pandemic.

So, this is my fifth year selling my music online and I finally spotted a need and thought about a solution for it, which would be building a niche targeted App.
I received little feedback from a few people, mostly connections I built over years, so I'm not really sure how reliable those opinions are.

The big questions is now: What's a good technique for getting mass confirmation for my spotted need?

I thought about setting up a Survey form with a few clever questions and posting it to niche related forums or setting up a landing page and a facebook campaign but wouldn't that be too much regarding branding etc?

It would be great to get some feedback on those two approaches from above or even some other suggestions/tips/threads!


Salute and stay healthy,
Vincent
I posted this a while back, it may help: 11 questions to test your idea and how to validate it next

I'm also in the music industry and I validated my product by engaging with communities on FB groups, reddit, and Instagram. I ran surveys and also drove traffic. Google Ads may be your best bet. PM if you want to talk about the challenges of growing a company in the music industry.
 

VincentVega24

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I posted this a while back, it may help: 11 questions to test your idea and how to validate it next

I'm also in the music industry and I validated my product by engaging with communities on FB groups, reddit, and Instagram. I ran surveys and also drove traffic. Google Ads may be your best bet. PM if you want to talk about the challenges of growing a company in the music industry.
That sounds great!
I'll have a look into your thread.

There's just one thing I'm uncertain about: are like 100 confirmations out of forums really enough?
I think I'll combine that with a simple landing page.
 

banjoa

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Don't try to validate this idea or any.

Just take small bounded bets and let the chips fall wherever they may.

The aim is to play again and again and again until something throws up golden gumballs.

Farm luck.

Be outcome independent. Take what works and discard what doesn't.

Business is too uncertain for validating ideas.


Here's a video that had a huge effect on me re validating ideas and why it's absolute futile to try and what you should do instead.

It will blow you away.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f1vXAHGIpfc
 

John_Wick

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Don't try to validate this idea or any.

Just take small bounded bets and let the chips fall wherever they may.

The aim is to play again and again and again until something throws up golden gumballs.

Farm luck.

Be outcome independent. Take what works and discard what doesn't.

Business is too uncertain for validating ideas.


Here's a video that had a huge effect on me re validating ideas and why it's absolute futile to try and what you should do instead.

It will blow you away.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f1vXAHGIpfc

I like your idea of just keep trying until it works. And, I was hoping the video you shared would have some nice scientific / anetodal ammunitions for that idea. But, I thought the video says the opposite.

Professor Peters starts with a favorable game, where you have 50% of winning and 40 losing in a coin-toss. He showed that a person who plays the game could end up losing, no matter how many time he tries. Worse, the longer he tries, the more he loses. He illustrates that repetition by playing that game from one every minute and extend it to to an hour, a day, a week, to a year, to infinity. But, there are also a few (like 1% few) who would play the same game and be able to win like crazy.

So, in his experiment even if there will be a few winners and a lot of losers, the averaged result would support the notion that this is a favorable game. Even though this average is not accessible.

I could be understanding this completely wrong as I was hoping that in his experiment, he will show that if one keeps trying, then odds will eventually be in his favor and one will eventually win. But, I thought his experiment showed just the opposite. He seems to suggest that if one keeps losing in a game, then the best advice seems to be try reducing the investment to lose smaller; but if one keeps winning, then bet bigger...

My takeaway of the lecture is almost deterministic. But, let's not put my words on his mouth.

There are some very interesting references, e.g., a book on the game of dice written in the 15th century and stories as well, so I'm glad I got exposed to something this intelligent.

Thank you for sharing.
 
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VincentVega24

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Nov 26, 2019
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Don't try to validate this idea or any.

Just take small bounded bets and let the chips fall wherever they may.

The aim is to play again and again and again until something throws up golden gumballs.

Farm luck.

Be outcome independent. Take what works and discard what doesn't.

Business is too uncertain for validating ideas.


Here's a video that had a huge effect on me re validating ideas and why it's absolute futile to try and what you should do instead.

It will blow you away.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f1vXAHGIpfc
So you mean I should just go for it?

I mean setting up a landing page is great & easy for collecting E-Mails and interest, but for building my app I probably have to secure funds somehow & before that I gotta get an LLC registered...
 

guidaccio05

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That sounds great!
I'll have a look into your thread.

There's just one thing I'm uncertain about: are like 100 confirmations out of forums really enough?
I think I'll combine that with a simple landing page.
Could be, but there is nothing like getting a transaction. That beats everything
 

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banjoa

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So you mean I should just go for it?

I mean setting up a landing page is great & easy for collecting E-Mails and interest, but for building my app I probably have to secure funds somehow & before that I gotta get an LLC registered...

Then the question becomes:

'What's the smallest (time & resources) bet I can take on this?'

Don't worry if it fails or succeeds. Be outcome independent. The only goal is survival whatever happens.

You just want to take the smallest bet you can so you can place many more bets in the future.
 

VincentVega24

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Then the question becomes:

'What's the smallest (time & resources) bet I can take on this?'

Don't worry if it fails or succeeds. Be outcome independent. The only goal is survival whatever happens.

You just want to take the smallest bet you can so you can place many more bets in the future.
I love that view! Thanks for the advice!
 

Aard

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Could be, but there is nothing like getting a transaction. That beats everything

While I completely agree that a transaction is the ultimate proof, if OP has an hour to spend and is not willing to pay for anything, he could conduct a quick idea pitching session on Discord or Omegle as I mentioned in my post. As a student tight on money and completely clueless in general, that helped me. Of course it can be seen as a "time wasting" option, which is not in my opinion because you ultimately learn interesting things if you know how to frame your questions.
 

PizzaOnTheRoof

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Make a bare bones landing page and drive traffic to it. Observe the results.
Where do you draw the line between speed and trustworthy design?

I’d imagine a lot of potential customers might nope out if the landing page is bad, giving you a false negative for the idea.
 

SEOguy

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Where do you draw the line between speed and trustworthy design?

I’d imagine a lot of potential customers might nope out if the landing page is bad, giving you a false negative for the idea.
I mean, look at Buffers MVP landing page:

It's as basic as you can get. I don't think design is as important if you are solving a real pain (as it appears they were).
 

PizzaOnTheRoof

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I mean, look at Buffers MVP landing page:

It's as basic as you can get. I don't think design is as important if you are solving a real pain (as it appears they were).
The issue is I’m designing a product. So with no product I’ve got no pictures!

I don’t think I’d get a reliable result just describing what it does.
 

guidaccio05

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PizzaOnTheRoof

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c4n

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I like your idea of just keep trying until it works. And, I was hoping the video you shared would have some nice scientific / anetodal ammunitions for that idea. But, I thought the video says the opposite.

I also liked the video, thanks @banjoa for sharing it. Not for the faint heart, but those who like some statistics/mathematics may find it intriguing. I think @MJ DeMarco might like it.

There's also a TED talk by Peters on Youtube, but too short and you don't really get the idea from it.

I could be understanding this completely wrong as I was hoping that in his experiment, he will show that if one keeps trying, then odds will eventually be in his favor and one will eventually win. But, I thought his experiment showed just the opposite. He seems to suggest that if one keeps losing in a game, then the best advice seems to be try reducing the investment to lose smaller; but if one keeps winning, then bet bigger...

I didn't get that at all. The game was just an example, a bad game really. You need a 66.6% gain to cover a 40% loss, so a game offering +50%/-40% with a 50%-50% chance is not something I'd even play. But if enough people play it there is a tiny fraction of "lucky" ones that will make such huge winnings (and the majority individuals having smaller and smaller losses) that it will skew the average into looking the game has positive expected value.

The point I got was that looking at averages (expected value) over a large number of samples does not always equal individual cases averaged over a large amount of time (repetition). You shouldn't start a specific game (or a business) just because some minuscule amount of winners distort the average (similar to the "spotlight effect").

You should always look and ask yourself if what you see is even relevant to your situation. It reminds me of people who start buying lottery tickets when the calculated EV turns positive, but in reality, the probability of winning remains the same and they cannot possibly partake in enough exposure (tries, number of tickets, ...) to make use of the positive EV.
 

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valuecreator

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just make a landing page and advertise it like it already exists.

If you actually get people to give your money for your app, you know your idea has legs.
 

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