Hello from your favorite Pessimistic Investor

[randallg99]

so my gut says the big brains
are betting on the market taking a dive.
By banning shorts, they're buying companies time.

exactly. When the ban is lifted, look out below!!!!

 

Dislike ads? Remove them and support the forum: Subscribe to Fastlane Insiders.

[randallg99]

Kimberland, amazing.

So, now that you feel that this is what will happen, how do you profit from it?

From what you are saying, and given that you are investing for the long term, it would make sense to buy stocks now and later this year and wait till May-July next year to sell them as you mentioned the next year they will start with a clean slate... how's that?

I won't answer for Kimber, but my strategy is buying gold & silver companies/miners.

 

[randallg99]

another strategy-

I am considering buying SRS....an ultrashort... it's priced now as the same as it was during the height of the real estate boom.... it probably has room to fall like a rock. closing price Fri = $68.80... as in prior post, the ban cannot last forever and the financials can't survive on this bailout alone... the financials and real estate economies require a lot of new business in the pipeline and it just ain't happening.... all my opinion only. I am just a schlepp. do your own DD. Again, this is not a recommendation and I am only considering it. I have no position in it.

FUND SUMMARY
The investment seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, which correspond to twice the inverse of the daily performance of the Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate index. The fund normally invests 80% of assets in financial instruments with economic characteristics that should be inverse to those of the index. It may employ leveraged investment techniques in seeking its investment objective. The fund is nondiversified.

SRS: Summary for ULTRASHORT REAL ESTA - Yahoo! Finance

 

[Edge]

another strategy-

I am considering buying SRS....an ultrashort... it's priced now as the same as it was during the height of the real estate boom.... it probably has room to fall like a rock. closing price Fri = $68.80... as in prior post, the ban cannot last forever and the financials can't survive on this bailout alone... the financials and real estate economies require a lot of new business in the pipeline and it just ain't happening.... all my opinion only. I am just a schlepp. do your own DD. Again, this is not a recommendation and I am only considering it. I have no position in it.

FUND SUMMARY
The investment seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, which correspond to twice the inverse of the daily performance of the Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate index. The fund normally invests 80% of assets in financial instruments with economic characteristics that should be inverse to those of the index. It may employ leveraged investment techniques in seeking its investment objective. The fund is nondiversified.

SRS: Summary for ULTRASHORT REAL ESTA - Yahoo! Finance

Nice - I've been writing covered calls on SRS and TWM since the beginning of the year. Most of last week I thought for sure my SRS was going to be called since I had a short Sept 70 call against it, but the last 8 hours of market activity has me rolling to October instead. This is one of the main reasons I like options, it lets the market make decisions for me, i'm good with whatever decision it decides to make when it comes down to the wire like that.

 

Dislike ads? Remove them and support the forum: Subscribe to Fastlane Insiders.

[JesseO]

Why is it that the DOW is rebounding so quickly and regaining its strength with so many problems going on? Is it because people are thinking the government is going to protect everything? Does everyone agree with this method?

 

[kidgas]

This is one of the main reasons I like options, it lets the market make decisions for me

Absolutely!! I just love using the collars since I don't have to predict the market, just react to it. I haven't perfected my system yet, but I seem to be getting pretty close. I still have some prior trades to see how they can be modified.

 

[randallg99]

Why is it that the DOW is rebounding so quickly and regaining its strength with so many problems going on? Is it because people are thinking the government is going to protect everything? Does everyone agree with this method?

for starters, there is a very large disconnect with equities vs. reality, IMO and the markets should be down much more, in my mind. but here the chart shows that the DOW is actually down YTD... it started over 13k in 2008, now below 12k.... almost down 10%


^DJI: Summary for Dow Jones Industrial Average - Yahoo! Finance


see this article here -
Paulson resists calls for added help in bailout - Yahoo! News

Paulson is still banging the table hard for the money to be injected... and soon. liquidity will remain a problem until economic activity is stimulated... and that requires, well, more money than what's already committed to "bailing out" or otherwise known as "saving the big boys asses"

I am just trying to support my justification as to why I plan on going very heavy into SRS and gold miners in the next week.

all of the above only my opinion

 

Dislike ads? Remove them and support the forum: Subscribe to Fastlane Insiders.

[Russ H]

Congress is trying to add some things on to the SOS proposal from Paulson and Bernanke.

Y'know what I'd LOVE to see?

If someone walks away from a SFH mortgage, it follows them, just like any other bad debt.

Even if they declare bankrupcy, it follows them-- they still owe it.

In fact, make it so that they need to pay on it for, oh, at least 10 years or so.

Why?

What homeowners right now need is a STRONG DISINCENTIVE to walk away from their mortgages.

This would help stop the death spiral I'm seeing in home prices being sold by banks.

Likelihood this will happen?

Probably zero.

Congress (and the media) would much rather talk about these folks as victims who need help, than greedy people who made commitments they couldn't keep.

And the folks who are walking away from their commitments would much rather play the victim role, than actually take responsibility for their lives.

So is my suggestion unrealistic?

You betcha.

Still, I guy can dream . . . :smxF:

-Russ H.

 

[JesseO]

^^ Gotta agree with Russ on this one....then again I might be called names for not wanting to support people who simply can't live up to the obligations they made and are now begging for an easy way out.

Making a contract for something worth 350,000 USD should not have an easy way out. That is a lot of money, and you should think long and hard about what could happen. What if you get sick and can't work? What if a hurricane hits your investment? What if, what if, what if? Well, in this case, if you're a bank who made some stupid decisions, you'll get a bailout and even a severance package worth millions upon millions of dollars. The presidents of these companies should be stripped of any pay past their performing date and all bonuses included. We're all paying for it. I'll stop now before I track off into other socialist rants

 

[Russ H]

I understand your frustration about the banks who made bad loans, Jesse.

But consider this:

Prior to this, most folks didn't walk away from their mortgages.

It wasn't socially acceptable-- you were considered the worst kind of flake, an irresponsible idiot not worthy of respect.

So the banks made loans, based, in part, on the fact that foreclosure rates never exceeded a certain percentage (they thought they had the spread covered).

But then the media, in its enthusiasm to document the next "bubble" in all its bloody, gory detail, profiles the "sad, sad victims" of the RE bust-- specifically, the irresponsible folks who bought houses that were WAAAAAAAAY overvalued.

No longer was this person considered an idiot for buying a house for more than it was worth-- they were now "a victim".

And as a "victim", it became socially acceptable to whine and complain about how you never knew this was gonna happen-- oh, woe is me--- and that you needed help <SOB>.

Puh-lease. :nopity:

But them's the facts, as I see 'em.

So now you have RECORD foreclosures, since folks are just walking away from their commitments.

And yes, the banks are caught with a bunch of bad paper.

But is it the greed of the banks-- or the stupidity and irresponsibility of the homeowners that is causing this sh*tstorm?

I'd say both.

But I sure don't see the flaky homeowners taking any of the heat here. :frocket:

-Russ H.

 

Dislike ads? Remove them and support the forum: Subscribe to Fastlane Insiders.

[JesseO]

The banks still made absolutely disgusting business ventures in search of the almighty dollar. Even if standard statistics painted a different picture for them, then they should have accounted for their change in policy. It is simply the fault of the owner who made bad decisions, and the banks that allowed it. If I moved in any jackass who has 3 evictions, 2 felonies, and no credit, wouldn't it be my fault if they moved out (defaulted) of their home? That is why we have screening procedures and requirements. It is the fault of both parties, but the one responsible is the one who gave the loan. Homeowners should not be bailed out, banks should not be bailed out. Those who made the best business deals will survive and those who failed to do so will fail. That is the nature of a free market economy. We (the people) should not have to pay for the mistakes of idiots who could have and can help themselves. That's it.

I should add that I do agree with Russ' post above, it just brought up some other thoughts with it

 

[randallg99]

there's enough finger pointing to go around. I like Russ' plan... maybe he'll run for pres? truth be told, people didn't understand the consequences when they signed dotted lines to pledge mortgages.... Mr and Mrs Jones most likely didn't read the mortgage papers and in many cases, the Joneses lied about their incomes, net worth and other pertinent info.

but you know, there are so many areas where the breakdown in the system occurred-

it is this consumer described above that drove the business and started the process
the consumer and investor alike who inflated up the price
the appraisers pulled numbers out of their asses
it is the loan broker who allowed the distorted info on the application
the bank that didn't value underwriting standards
Moody's/Fitch's/S&P who didn't properly audit the packages
the large institutions who leveraged the mortgage pools to the hilt and beyond

so many hands were dipping into the cookie jar and euphoria overwhelmed all of the parties involved.... I played golf a few years back with a guy my age with a beaut of a Bently, a 3mil shore home who was a mortgage broker living the life from making all kinds of deals. Don't think for 1 second he was gonna tell everyone in his office to stop accepting no doc loans...

my thoughts are that these large institutions should have sold their good assets to cover the bad.... and that they should have announced the potential shortfalls in their balance sheets instead of letting rumors bring these companies to their demise.

property owners are ultimately responsible. and if they do ditch their properties, they will have a black mark on their credit report for 7 years.... not many banks are eager to do biz with mortgage defaulters, especially now.... those people turning in their keys will most likely have to rent, or perhaps shack up with other people... who knows?

obviously, personal accountability was tossed out the window.

and on another note- the gov't plan doesn't come without severe consequences....

keep in mind, all of the fed budget cuts to cover existing shortfalls are being passed on to the states and municipalities.... services will be under strain and will be enforcing codes (inspectors, etc) and laws (police) more stringently just so as to collect more in fees and fines to cover some of the department shortfalls. court costs will increase, etc... the state will get creative, don't worry about them none.... but the 700bil obligation is really an unfathomable (is this even a word?) number...

besides the gov't having to come up with this money via printing and issuing more notes, the main problem is that this 700 bil is nothing but to save the companies and does very little to stimulate future loan originations

the solution will be to keep cash and buy when the blood is in the streets up to our ankles.

 

[RJP]

Excellent video commentary on our current economic situation. Definately worth a watch. (they are not very long).

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dDd51v7prtI]YouTube - AIG Gets "Bridge Loan"; Hedgies Get Free Shots[/ame]

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kqtAzRNhTTY]YouTube - The Potential End Of America's Government[/ame]

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ivaXMEB6HzE]YouTube - And The Calvary (Government) Issues Its Edict...[/ame]

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MO6P_yjKFR4]YouTube - King Paulson - Hope You Like It[/ame]

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9KYtD-Ff_eM]YouTube - FIX IT NOW - Plan to Actually SOLVE THE PROBLEM[/ame]

 

Dislike ads? Remove them and support the forum: Subscribe to Fastlane Insiders.

[Russ H]

Yikes.

Hard for me to watch these (only got through half of one, "King Paulson").

I finally turned off the video (made the screen black) and just listened. The commentator's ticks and cutesy "smirks" when playing the video of Paulson were just too distracting.

His unprofessional demeanor and pompous manner really detract from his message. This is really a shame, as his info could be excellent. I can't say though, b/c all I kept hearing was "I told you so a year ago, I told you so a year ago."

We all choose our news from different outlets. I read, mostly. Reuters and UPI remove much of the snarky "spin" that is so popular w/TV commentators these days.

But hey, that's just me.

It does give me a MUCH better understanding of some of our posters on these boards, if they're listening to stuff like this-- they'd feel it would be normal to post emotional rants. :smxE:

Sorry-- this is NOT aimed at you, RJP. I'm just a bit shocked watching this stuff (remember, I have removed TV from my life completely, so I don't have the automatic anti-spin filters for it that most of you have!). :404:

-Russ H.

 

[unicon]

You know after reading all of this I cant help but wonder if anyone shorted and bought puts against all the financials just a month or two ago? Talk about a once in a life time opportunity to make money at an accelereated rate!!!

This would be after reading about the hedge fund guy who made a fortune shorting the real estate market about 9 months ago.

The problem was that no one could predict the knife would fall even further wiping out the financial institution infrastructure, the information was not there only the behavior.

Down markets are the fastest way to make money about ten times as fast as the up market, so from a fastlane basis this was a missed opportunity for myself and most of the posters.

Did anyone have the courage to step up? And if not why not?

If the trend is your friend where is the knife headed?

I hate missing lost opportunities - my excuse is that I have been out of the market and in real estate. Perhaps one should have shifted gears.

Understanding lost opportunities is true learning.

 

[AroundTheWorld]

You know after reading all of this I cant help but wonder if anyone shorted and bought puts against all the financials just a month or two ago? Talk about a once in a life time opportunity to make money at an accelereated rate!!!

I recall people talking about shorting financials when the sub-prime thing first hit.
Some people thought it would be a good idea.
Other's wondered if it was too little too late.

 

Dislike ads? Remove them and support the forum: Subscribe to Fastlane Insiders.

[RJP]

Russ- no offense taken. Personally, I'm a firm believer of taking in as much information from various sources as possible (pro & con, conservative & liberal, Democrat & Republican, pessimist & optimist, proponents & critics, main stream & contrary to main stream, etc...) In my mind, information is key, wherever I can get it from. Plus, I like to hear the opinion of others, especially voiced passionately. Out of it all, I draw my own conclusions while trying to sift thru the spin. I must admit, I don't prefer my news "sanitized and packaged" and I get tired of hearing the same news parroted word for word. That's not to say I don't listen to the major news outlets, because I do. I try to take in as much as I can, especially when current events could effect me financially. You may not like the messenger, as I'm sure many will not, (he is a bit tough to take) but Mr. Denninger makes some excellent points. To say the least, he is certainly not as polished or professional as a Noriel Roubini type (not even close), but he makes some of the same points. Remember, just a few years ago, when these guys started predicting this stuff, most were saying they were nuts. Hell ... I remember them calling Roubini Dr. Doom. Looks like Roubini et al. had it right.

Actually, he does a pretty good job of describing the events that unfolded last week, which is why I posted the videos. There was some discussion posted about why the ban on shorting and the AIG bailout, which he goes into during the first videos. (I posted them in chronological order of the events last week).

I believe that, being that the current events quite possibly represents the most serious risk to our free market system in decades and will most likely effect every American personally (financially) as well as the U.S. economy for years to come, I would expect people to discuss this passionately and emotionally, which is the exact reaction a rational person would have. I think it will be impossible to totally remove that element from any discussions about the economy which is being shaped by politics as I write this. That being said, I can see the frustration of trying to people focused on the positive.

 

[unicon]

RJP this is why I like this forum is because people find and post this stuff filtering thru the internet to find efficient presentations.

I couldn't care less how the guy looked his presentation was substantial and factual, I am against this bailout. I especially like the idea of a layered filtered derivative exchange only and a cap on leverage. Also I do not trust the current valuation of the loan portfolio assets nor does anyone know the true value, equity is all about opinion anyway. The bail out is based on opinion. Cash flow is the problem and the factual drain. Is the bail out financing equity or plugging the drain - these are two separate issues.

The biggest issue is always freedom which is swept under the rug with all this stuff.

Bear - Dont understand your logic, I have sector portfolios of pro forma purchases and if I bet on the downside I would have made money on 28 of 30 stocks in the financial sector - the exact percentage was a 36% drop averaged. With the leveraged option play the percentage would have been in excess of 400% and possibly 10 times that much.

 

[randallg99]

so here I am with my strategy - deployed approx half the cash available and went long today. and went long with JAG and SRS purchases.

I will start selling calls on half my position on SRS. I invested in SRS today based upon previous posts

if anyone is interested in why I invested in JAG today, I will happily disclose.

Still about 50% cash and watching carefully. Do your own DD.

Even more compelling reasoning for gold bull run is, well of course it's pessimistic data... but it's from our government. See link for details.

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

 

Dislike ads? Remove them and support the forum: Subscribe to Fastlane Insiders.

[randallg99]

Europe is snubbing the bail out and front page of this morning's WSJ makes it pretty clear too many unclear factors will prevent the senate/congress approval for the bail out this week. Last night's news of Buffett buying 5bil of Goldman Sachs rang nicely but the party already seems to be fading now that the true magnitude of the crisis is settling in....

it's going to be a long week in the markets.... but more importantly, the recovery.

 

[randallg99]

THIS BAIL OUT IN ANY FORM IS GOING TO SHOW THE US$ A WHOLE NEW HELL.

anyone here knows what happens when assets i.e. real estate become deflationary and then food, energy and consumer goods become inflationary.... ? I have no idea. it's a whole new ball game. but this is when gold becomes a "no-brainer" or at least that's what my brain says...

THE ASTUTE INVESTORS WHO ARE ALIVE AND WELL TODAY ARE THE ONES WITH SKIN IN THE GAME.

THERE IS ONLY 1 THING THAT HAS CHANGED AMONG ASTUTE INVESTORS: RISK ANALYSIS... MORE SCRUTINY AND SHREWDNESS IS REQUIRED IN THIS ENVIRONMENT.

here is part of my plan - I am still over 50% cash. I may trade in and out of my RGLD, SRS and JAG positions to raise more cash. I firmly believe there will be more blow ups. What's more dangerous to the brokerage firms are the hedge funds ability to stave off redemptions...

there wil be once-in-a-lifetime bargains to be had. But the pain has to set in first. when that happens, then we'll jump in like flies on horse manure.

 

[andviv]

there wil be once-in-a-lifetime bargains to be had. But the pain has to set in first. when that happens, then we'll jump in like flies on horse manure.

What are the metrics/factors that you are considering? (i.e. how will you know when is enough and it's time to buy?)

 

Dislike ads? Remove them and support the forum: Subscribe to Fastlane Insiders.

[china]

If you are going for gold, you need to buy physical gold -- not the paper promises you get on the stock market. I read up on GLD and you need to own 100,000 shares to be able to redeem for real gold, so unless you have $9,000,000 just sitting around, you own a sheet of paper.

I have stock and physical gold. I bought most of the gold in 2004/2005 so it could fall way down and I wouldn't care. My stock is completely in the crapper. I'm tempted to just cash out and take my pennies and go buy more metal -- if I can find any metal to buy.

That's the other problem with the metals market. The spot price is one thing, but recently, spot went way down but you couldn't buy physical metal for that. A lot of people said "Buy futures and take delivery" but there are delivery failures too, you know? And it's a well known thing that people on the futures market frequently settle for cash, not the product.

So, I think if you plan to buy metals, you should buy the real thing. If TSHTF you can pack up your physical metal and go somewhere else. If you own the paper, well, you own paper.

 

[randallg99]

What are the metrics/factors that you are considering? (i.e. how will you know when is enough and it's time to buy?)

KISS. I MEAN REALLY KIFSS. KEEP IT SIMPLE.

I have really been emphasizing unemployment... in my eyes this is most indicative of how strong the economy is doing. A plotted chart gives us a clearer picture of the trend.... keep in mind how just 1 unemployed person affects the macro picture (think tax revenue) and then on a very micro scale (think consumerism) and how it spills over into other people (think borrowing money from friends/relatives) and then those people cut back on their spending....

I rather jump in just when we turn the corner and there are stronger unemployment numbers or at the very least where they stabilize. I don't catch falling knives, especially in this environment.

bad news out this morning

ETA Press Release: Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report
Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, & Orders (M3)

hope this helps.

R

 

[randallg99]

WM just bit the dust... reports coming out that common, preferreds and bonds all goners! I hope this is not true, but nontheless a major player is out of the game...

ny times has a simple take on it....

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/26/business/26wamu.html


anyone you look at it, there's a broom stick waiting to be shoved up the markets a$$ tomorrow....

 

Dislike ads? Remove them and support the forum: Subscribe to Fastlane Insiders.

[randallg99]

It just seems way too easy... I just don't see how gold cannot explode to the upside... it couldn't be anymore clearer than this... all of the events unfolding is showing the vulnerability of the currency system and the flight to metals has got to happen...

I added more JAG yesterday. Was tempted to add SRS when it fell below my original buy in. but after last night's news, it's an effing no brainer...

this bail out package has to really be scrutinized. No way I want my government spotting wall street the $$$ unless they participate in the upside potential.... that's what nationalization (socialization) is all about but at the same time, I don't want to spend $2400 for every man, woman and child to pay for this mess (my house of 4 people = $9600) ... some of you here have more than 5 pp in the house... so put my tax dollars at work for US! not for wall street...

and now that unemployment keeps drifting higher, the wheels are about to fly off the economy.... California is approaching 8% unemployment thus skewing the country, but just about every other state is headed higher, too.

the state politicians are refusing to cut back spending... you know what that means? yep. we're gonna get nailed on the state level.... somehow they keep getting more money to blow but it will be a nasty ending to the state's financial story.... just like a drunk begging for money on the corner to buy more booze instead of a clean shower, the state leaders somehow keep scraping by ....

Part of the bail out package included a new tax on every equity trade. 1/4 of 1% of each trade would be taxed to pay for the bail out. So... in plain english = all of us traders/investors who are LIQUID and are the ones keeping the markets afloat in their own weird way are the ones who will be penalized. While the scumbags with 100 million severance and bonus packages are on their knees begging for 700 billion.... and the traders? they're not worried. Apparently opening an account in London is as easy as a few internet clicks... ( i haven't confirmed this, but no doubt traders will get creative to avoid tax) can you imagine the funds trading 100 million in a week all of a sudden due a 250k tax bill??? you can bet your right hand that ain't happening

Paulson is smelling more like a rat the more I read about him.... but there's a little consulation in watching him on his knees begging for all mercy

the biggest question mark is how the Chinese are going to handle any potential defaults on their treasuries and GSE debt payments.... if there is any remote possibility that there will be defaults, you can bet they'll unload faster than a drunk in a circus

and if this actually does happen, then we will have seen the all mighty unforseen calamity in the markets... but I think this is sitting in the back of the mind of every congress/senator/fed/treasury hack out there... and they're probably doing the back room schmoozing with the chinese as we speak...

so many changes in the dynamics of our economy all happening right in front of our eyes which is fascinating... many people are oblivious to this and they probably sleep a lot better than me at night, but we really live in unprecedented times and will be marked undoubtedly in history books hopefully with a good ending.... I mean, we are really talking about a transformation of not only the economy, but the government... it really is moving from a free enterprise market to a full blown nationalization ...

what we need to focus on is how to survive these tumultous markets. S&P is breaking it's lower resistant levels... more downside to go, IMO.

Long in no particular order: SRS, JAG, GoldenOcean, RGLD, SDRLF... and several others that are 1-2% of port.
Still approx 54% cash

 

[randallg99]

Bloomberg.com: Worldwide


``Our export-growth strategy has run its natural course,'' he said. ``We should change course.''

 

[MJ DeMarco]

Part of the bail out package included a new tax on every equity trade. 1/4 of 1% of each trade would be taxed to pay for the bail out.

So to trade 1,000 shares of a $100 stock would cost $250? That will cause me to stop trading and will destroy the stock market and remove an enormous amount of liquidity. Day traders create a lot of liquidity that is beneficial to the market.

I will do anything within my power to use alternative investments that aren't apart of the government's penalization plan, err, I mean bailout tax plan.

 

Dislike ads? Remove them and support the forum: Subscribe to Fastlane Insiders.

[AroundTheWorld]

So true... as the bail out (and subsequent hike in taxes) reveals itself to us, new opportunities will emerge... Just gotta look for those money making areas that are not being taxes as heavily!

 

[randallg99]

I just don't understand the markets. I really don't....

within a year where Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae almost became insolvent, AIG loses 85bil, Lehman Bros bankrupts, Indy Mac gets taken over, FDIC is being stressed, Bear Sterns disappears overnight and now Washington Mutual says buh-bye. Subprime writedowns not counted, we are already in the hole by an absurd amount of money. housing market going down the slippery slope, bankruptcies up, deficit out of control, unemployment increasing, energy and food prices too high for average family, banks stopped issuing letters of credit

Now the government is spending all nighters figuring out how another 700 bil should be spent.

and the market today? it goes up. yep, there aren't any problems with liquidity.

Oh, you want some good news???? OK - WE'RE SO VERY LUCKY THAT JPM STOLE WAMU'S ASSETS INSTEAD OF HAVING THE FDIC TAKE OVER... THE STRESS ON THE FDIC WOULD HAVE BEEN TOO BURDENSOME.

the "obvious picks du jour" SRS and JAG are underwater... almost at my stop loss points.... JAG actually went below my stop loss point, but my stubborness kept it... because my conviction is dead right. I know it. But it doesn't make me money....

I spoke with a friend early this morning and complained about the above scenario and asked him if the stock market has a real disconnect from the society.... this very odd scenario of "nothing's wrong" is not new... the tech bubble and euphoria shared the same sentiment.... a real disconnect is out there now.

after this conversation, I bought an amount equal to half as a hedge against my gold positions and my inverse etf equal parts of JPM and XLF... when the bailout is announced, the world will sing kumbaya and my gold and SRS will hit the fan... but at least I can offset it with some banks that are the brink. oh, the irony...

btw, if you want to own any single one financial company, it's gonna probably be JPM that will not only survive, but when a bank buys 600 bil of deposits for 1.9 bil, they hit the effing motherlode.... JPM all but gang raped Bear Stern's assets....

that's like buying a 1000 unit apartment building for $1000 down and being positive cash flow enough to sit back and use the free time to count the money

the only problem is that I am not as solvent as the market is irrational.

rant off