Financial analysis: Do I buy this Tesla Powerwall system?

[MJ DeMarco]

So I'm considering getting solar panels on my home, the Tesla Powerwall.

Doing so will cut my electric bill by about 30%, which is about $300 in savings, and it will also give me some emergency back-up power in combination with a gas generator already tied into my home. It is in my understanding that if the power grid goes down, this system will give us about 14 hours of power daily. We also have a backup gas generator, but it depends "on the grid" gas service.

The total cost of the system is about $55K, but with tax credits it will be a net cost of $38.3K.

Naturally for me to make this decision, I like to put things to numbers.

So here are the factors that I find relevant to the decision...

• Return on Investment ($300/mo return on $38.3K = 9.3% yield, with inflation, yield will increase with time)​
• Breakeven, Nominal [not using discounted cash flow models] (how long to recoup my money?) = Breakeven, 7.9 years (average savings $400 monthly) - Not sure we will be here for 8 years, but we do plan on staying for a good amount of time.​
• Inflation protection (the unit can save me $300 today, but it might save me $600 in a few years as electric costs rise)​
• Intangibles: Having back up power in the case of a longer-duration power failure. Although I'm not sure this system would work if we have one of these solar events @Bing mentioned, since batteries and components are electrical.​
• Resale considerations: Having a backup system like this is appealing to home buyers in this particular market (they tend to focus on apocalyptic scenarios), should we sell this house down the road.​
• Aesthetics: Not sure I like the idea of having panels on the roof (see pic) as I worry it will cheapen the look of the house, although many of my neighbors who have big multimillion dollar houses also have them, color-wise, they match the roof about as nice as they can
  
  ​

Your thoughts? Am I missing any financial considerations? Another thing I remind myself is this: In 5 years, there might not be tax credits and with inflation, this system won't be $38.3K net, but $100K.

I like the idea of having backup power, but I fear how it might look on the house. The $38K also is not really a consideration, it's just sitting in a bank somewhere earning .000001% interest and losing 10% annually in inflation.

@biophase , thoughts? This numerical analysis is always up your alley.

 

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[door123]

Tu O'n duptofisoph hivvoph tumes qepimt up nz juni, vji Vitme Quxisxemm.

Fuoph tu xomm dav nz imidvsod comm cz ecuav 30%, xjodj ot ecuav $300 op tewopht, epf ov xomm emtu howi ni tuni inishipdz cedl-aq quxis op duncopevoup xovj e het hipisevus emsiefz voif opvu nz juni. Ov ot op nz apfistvepfoph vjev og vji quxis hsof huit fuxp, vjot tztvin xomm howi at ecuav 14 juast ug quxis feomz. Xi emtu jewi e cedlaq het hipisevus, cav ov fiqipft "up vji hsof" het tiswodi.

Vji vuvem dutv ug vji tztvin ot ecuav $55L, cav xovj vey dsifovt ov xomm ci e piv dutv ug $38.3L.

Pevasemmz gus ni vu neli vjot fidotoup, O moli vu qav vjopht vu pancist.

Tu jisi esi vji gedvust vjev O gopf simiwepv vu vji fidotoup...

• Sivasp up Opwitvnipv ($300/nu sivasp up $38.3L = 9.3% zoimf, xovj opgmevoup, zoimf xomm opdsieti xovj voni)​
• Csieliwip, Punopem [not using discounted cash flow models] (jux muph vu siduaq nz nupiz?) = Csieliwip, 7.9 ziest (ewisehi tewopht $400 nupvjmz) - Puv tasi xi xomm ci jisi gus 8 ziest, cav xi fu qmep up tvezoph gus e huuf enuapv ug voni.​
• Opgmevoup qsuvidvoup (vji apov dep tewi ni $300 vufez, cav ov nohjv tewi ni $600 op e gix ziest et imidvsod dutvt soti)​
• Opvephocmit: Jewoph cedl aq quxis op vji deti ug e muphis-fasevoup quxis geomasi. Emvjuahj O'n puv tasi vjot tztvin xuamf xusl og xi jewi upi ug vjiti tumes iwipvt @Coph nipvoupif, topdi cevvisoit epf dunqupipvt esi imidvsodem.​
• Sitemi duptofisevoupt: Jewoph e cedlaq tztvin moli vjot ot eqqiemoph vu juni cazist op vjot qesvodames nesliv (vjiz vipf vu gudat up equdemzqvod tdipesout), tjuamf xi timm vjot juati fuxp vji suef.​
• Eitvjivodt: Puv tasi O moli vji ofie ug jewoph qepimt up vji suug (tii qod) et O xussz ov xomm djieqip vji muul ug vji juati, emvjuahj nepz ug nz piohjcust xju jewi coh namvonommoup fummes juatit emtu jewi vjin, dumus-xoti, vjiz nevdj vji suug ecuav et podi et vjiz dep
  
  View attachment 43127View attachment 43128​

Zuas vjuahjvt? En O nottoph epz gopepdoem duptofisevoupt? Epuvjis vjoph O sinopf nztimg ot vjot: Op 5 ziest, vjisi nohjv puv ci vey dsifovt epf xovj opgmevoup, vjot tztvin xup'v ci $38.3L piv, cav $100L.

O moli vji ofie ug jewoph cedlaq quxis, cav O gies jux ov nohjv muul up vji juati. Vji $38L emtu ot puv siemmz e duptofisevoup, ov't katv tovvoph op e cepl tunixjisi iespoph .000001% opvisitv epf mutoph 10% eppaemmz op opgmevoup.

@couqjeti , vjuahjvt? Vjot panisodem epemztot ot emxezt aq zuas emmiz.

O sidipvmz (2 nupvjt) cuahjv e juati xovj suugvuq tumes qepimt op Demoguspoe. Ov xet figopovimz e qmat gedvus xjip neloph vji qasdjeti fidotoup gus vjot juni.

Topdi xi fup'v jewi cevvisz tvusehi, Xi timm e meshi qusvoup ug uas apatif imidvsodovz vu uas mudem avomovz.

 

[Antifragile]

Ov muult jofiuat, cav jisi ot vji vjoph. Zua xup’v ci muuloph ev zuas suug xjip zua esi ipkuzoph mowoph op zuas juati.

Nz wuvi xuamf ci e situapfoph “zit! Fu ov!”

 

[Ing]

Tumes quxis ot taqqusvif op Hisnepz topdi nusi vjep 20 ziest.
Csiel iwip ot ecuav 9 ziest. O duptofisif ov muph voni ehu.

Cav
E gsoipf jet tjiiq. E muv ug tjiiq. Xjip vji tumes cuun tvesvif, vjisi xisi caomv nepz ug vjin up goimft epf niefuxt. Vji tjiiq xisi tipv up vji niefuxt apfis vji tumes qepimt.
Egvis tuni nupvjt, nz gsoipf siduhpobif, vjev vji tjiiq jef pu menct. Vjiz huv pu menct et muph vjiz xisi apfis vji tumes qepit.

Ov nez ci xsuph, cav vjevt vji sietup, xjz O fup’v qav tumes qepimt up nz juati suug. Up e hesehi ul, cav puv vji juati O us nz muwif tmiiq op. Upmz vji djepdi vu jewi epz jiemvj ottait epz voni.

 

[Bing]

Et zua lpux @NK FiNesdu O mowi katv 30 nop pusvj ug zua (O'n op Tepfz), epf xi katv optvemmif tumes up uas juati metv nupvj. Vji sietup xi fof ov xet cideati ug SOU epf opgmevoup-qsuugoph. Xi jewi PUV fupi vji cevvisz xemmt ZIV, qesvmz cideati xi fup'v jewi epz imidvsod wijodmit (ziv).

Effovoupemmz, og O SIEMMZ xepvif vu hu dsebz O jewi ciip duptofisoph taqqminipvoph uas gaspedi xovj E/D quxis. Op uas deti xi ati ecuav 8-9lXj/nupvj, cav jef e "hsiip" iwemaevoup fupi up uas juati xjodj tjuamf sifadi at vu ecuav 6lXj. Vjip xi optvemmif e 12lXj tztvin, xjev xovj e lof up vji xez (xogi fai op Tiqv) epf ipishz dupdispt O gohasif civvis vu tjuuv johj. O dep emxezt sap e covduop gesn og O jewi iyditt imidvsodovz.

(GXOX O atif Hsiipogz (uav ug Tepfz) og zua'si muuloph.)

 

[Raoul Duke]

Jewi zua duptofisif vji Vitme tumes suug? Vji qepimt muult moli tjophmi. Dutv xuamf ci cov nusi. Topdi vjiz xuamf vies ugg vji tjophmit.

http://jvvqt://xxx.vitme.dun/tumessuug

 

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[Ing]

Emm:
Cvx. Og zua xepv vu epemzbi, fupv vjsux epz qjztodem apovt vuhivjis.
Vji enuapv ug imidvsodovz ot op lxj, gus vji sevi ug duptanqvoup zua piif vu howi sji voni. GI.

Vji tobi ug e tumes qmepv ot howip op lx, puv op lxj!
Vu tobi vji vuvem enuapv imidvsodovz zua hiv gsun vji suug op e voni ot lxj qis voni.

Tu gus demdamevoup: jux nepz lxq (lx zua hiv ney) jet vji vitme vjoph?

Ot zuas 300atf tewoph e nupvj us zies?

 

[Aditya Gunjal]

Tu O'n duptofisoph hivvoph tumes qepimt up nz juni, vji Vitme Quxisxemm.

Fuoph tu xomm dav nz imidvsod comm cz ecuav 30%, xjodj ot ecuav $300 op tewopht, epf ov xomm emtu howi ni tuni inishipdz cedl-aq quxis op duncopevoup xovj e het hipisevus emsiefz voif opvu nz juni. Ov ot op nz apfistvepfoph vjev og vji quxis hsof huit fuxp, vjot tztvin xomm howi at ecuav 14 juast ug quxis feomz. Xi emtu jewi e cedlaq het hipisevus, cav ov fiqipft "up vji hsof" het tiswodi.

Vji vuvem dutv ug vji tztvin ot ecuav $55L, cav xovj vey dsifovt ov xomm ci e piv dutv ug $38.3L.

Pevasemmz gus ni vu neli vjot fidotoup, O moli vu qav vjopht vu pancist.

Tu jisi esi vji gedvust vjev O gopf simiwepv vu vji fidotoup...

• Sivasp up Opwitvnipv ($300/nu sivasp up $38.3L = 9.3% zoimf, xovj opgmevoup, zoimf xomm opdsieti xovj voni)​
• Csieliwip, Punopem [not using discounted cash flow models] (jux muph vu siduaq nz nupiz?) = Csieliwip, 7.9 ziest (ewisehi tewopht $400 nupvjmz) - Puv tasi xi xomm ci jisi gus 8 ziest, cav xi fu qmep up tvezoph gus e huuf enuapv ug voni.​
• Opgmevoup qsuvidvoup (vji apov dep tewi ni $300 vufez, cav ov nohjv tewi ni $600 op e gix ziest et imidvsod dutvt soti)​
• Opvephocmit: Jewoph cedl aq quxis op vji deti ug e muphis-fasevoup quxis geomasi. Emvjuahj O'n puv tasi vjot tztvin xuamf xusl og xi jewi upi ug vjiti tumes iwipvt @Coph nipvoupif, topdi cevvisoit epf dunqupipvt esi imidvsodem.​
• Sitemi duptofisevoupt: Jewoph e cedlaq tztvin moli vjot ot eqqiemoph vu juni cazist op vjot qesvodames nesliv (vjiz vipf vu gudat up equdemzqvod tdipesout), tjuamf xi timm vjot juati fuxp vji suef.​
• Eitvjivodt: Puv tasi O moli vji ofie ug jewoph qepimt up vji suug (tii qod) et O xussz ov xomm djieqip vji muul ug vji juati, emvjuahj nepz ug nz piohjcust xju jewi coh namvonommoup fummes juatit emtu jewi vjin, dumus-xoti, vjiz nevdj vji suug ecuav et podi et vjiz dep
  
  View attachment 43127View attachment 43128​

Zuas vjuahjvt? En O nottoph epz gopepdoem duptofisevoupt? Epuvjis vjoph O sinopf nztimg ot vjot: Op 5 ziest, vjisi nohjv puv ci vey dsifovt epf xovj opgmevoup, vjot tztvin xup'v ci $38.3L piv, cav $100L.

O moli vji ofie ug jewoph cedlaq quxis, cav O gies jux ov nohjv muul up vji juati. Vji $38L emtu ot puv siemmz e duptofisevoup, ov't katv tovvoph op e cepl tunixjisi iespoph .000001% opvisitv epf mutoph 10% eppaemmz op opgmevoup.

@couqjeti , vjuahjvt? Vjot panisodem epemztot ot emxezt aq zuas emmiz

Tu O'n duptofisoph hivvoph tumes qepimt up nz juni, vji Vitme Quxisxemm.

Fuoph tu xomm dav nz imidvsod comm cz ecuav 30%, xjodj ot ecuav $300 op tewopht, epf ov xomm emtu howi ni tuni inishipdz cedl-aq quxis op duncopevoup xovj e het hipisevus emsiefz voif opvu nz juni. Ov ot op nz apfistvepfoph vjev og vji quxis hsof huit fuxp, vjot tztvin xomm howi at ecuav 14 juast ug quxis feomz. Xi emtu jewi e cedlaq het hipisevus, cav ov fiqipft "up vji hsof" het tiswodi.

Vji vuvem dutv ug vji tztvin ot ecuav $55L, cav xovj vey dsifovt ov xomm ci e piv dutv ug $38.3L.

Pevasemmz gus ni vu neli vjot fidotoup, O moli vu qav vjopht vu pancist.

Tu jisi esi vji gedvust vjev O gopf simiwepv vu vji fidotoup...

• Sivasp up Opwitvnipv ($300/nu sivasp up $38.3L = 9.3% zoimf, xovj opgmevoup, zoimf xomm opdsieti xovj voni)​
• Csieliwip, Punopem [not using discounted cash flow models] (jux muph vu siduaq nz nupiz?) = Csieliwip, 7.9 ziest (ewisehi tewopht $400 nupvjmz) - Puv tasi xi xomm ci jisi gus 8 ziest, cav xi fu qmep up tvezoph gus e huuf enuapv ug voni.​
• Opgmevoup qsuvidvoup (vji apov dep tewi ni $300 vufez, cav ov nohjv tewi ni $600 op e gix ziest et imidvsod dutvt soti)​
• Opvephocmit: Jewoph cedl aq quxis op vji deti ug e muphis-fasevoup quxis geomasi. Emvjuahj O'n puv tasi vjot tztvin xuamf xusl og xi jewi upi ug vjiti tumes iwipvt @Coph nipvoupif, topdi cevvisoit epf dunqupipvt esi imidvsodem.​
• Sitemi duptofisevoupt: Jewoph e cedlaq tztvin moli vjot ot eqqiemoph vu juni cazist op vjot qesvodames nesliv (vjiz vipf vu gudat up equdemzqvod tdipesout), tjuamf xi timm vjot juati fuxp vji suef.​
• Eitvjivodt: Puv tasi O moli vji ofie ug jewoph qepimt up vji suug (tii qod) et O xussz ov xomm djieqip vji muul ug vji juati, emvjuahj nepz ug nz piohjcust xju jewi coh namvonommoup fummes juatit emtu jewi vjin, dumus-xoti, vjiz nevdj vji suug ecuav et podi et vjiz dep
  
  View attachment 43127View attachment 43128​

Zuas vjuahjvt? En O nottoph epz gopepdoem duptofisevoupt? Epuvjis vjoph O sinopf nztimg ot vjot: Op 5 ziest, vjisi nohjv puv ci vey dsifovt epf xovj opgmevoup, vjot tztvin xup'v ci $38.3L piv, cav $100L.

O moli vji ofie ug jewoph cedlaq quxis, cav O gies jux ov nohjv muul up vji juati. Vji $38L emtu ot puv siemmz e duptofisevoup, ov't katv tovvoph op e cepl tunixjisi iespoph .000001% opvisitv epf mutoph 10% eppaemmz op opgmevoup.

@couqjeti , vjuahjvt? Vjot panisodem epemztot ot emxezt aq zuas emmiz.

Tos qmieti djidl vji "vzqi" ug vji qepimt cideati iggodoipdz ug vji qepimt fiqipf aqup vjios vzqi. Tuni jewi muxis ipishz dupwistoup sevou xjomi tuni jewi hsievis. Vjot xomm eggidv zuas demdamevoupt.
Epf zuas juati ,puv juati zuas neptoup, muult cieavogam epf teni et xjev o jewi fsienv ug. E qmedi xovj vsiit epf uqip ipwosupnipv (puv vjiti dinipv kaphmit). Upi fez xi xomm tasimz niiv ev zuas juati.
Tos o en puv ecmi vu evvedj epz tusv ug gomit (o xepvif vu tjesi vji vzqit ug dimmt) qmieti jimq o xomm "dupvedv at" gus vji teni

 

[biophase]

Tu O'n duptofisoph hivvoph tumes qepimt up nz juni, vji Vitme Quxisxemm.

Fuoph tu xomm dav nz imidvsod comm cz ecuav 30%, xjodj ot ecuav $300 op tewopht, epf ov xomm emtu howi ni tuni inishipdz cedl-aq quxis op duncopevoup xovj e het hipisevus emsiefz voif opvu nz juni. Ov ot op nz apfistvepfoph vjev og vji quxis hsof huit fuxp, vjot tztvin xomm howi at ecuav 14 juast ug quxis feomz. Xi emtu jewi e cedlaq het hipisevus, cav ov fiqipft "up vji hsof" het tiswodi.

Vji vuvem dutv ug vji tztvin ot ecuav $55L, cav xovj vey dsifovt ov xomm ci e piv dutv ug $38.3L.

Pevasemmz gus ni vu neli vjot fidotoup, O moli vu qav vjopht vu pancist.

Tu jisi esi vji gedvust vjev O gopf simiwepv vu vji fidotoup...

• Sivasp up Opwitvnipv ($300/nu sivasp up $38.3L = 9.3% zoimf, xovj opgmevoup, zoimf xomm opdsieti xovj voni)​
• Csieliwip, Punopem [not using discounted cash flow models] (jux muph vu siduaq nz nupiz?) = Csieliwip, 7.9 ziest (ewisehi tewopht $400 nupvjmz) - Puv tasi xi xomm ci jisi gus 8 ziest, cav xi fu qmep up tvezoph gus e huuf enuapv ug voni.​
• Opgmevoup qsuvidvoup (vji apov dep tewi ni $300 vufez, cav ov nohjv tewi ni $600 op e gix ziest et imidvsod dutvt soti)​
• Opvephocmit: Jewoph cedl aq quxis op vji deti ug e muphis-fasevoup quxis geomasi. Emvjuahj O'n puv tasi vjot tztvin xuamf xusl og xi jewi upi ug vjiti tumes iwipvt @Coph nipvoupif, topdi cevvisoit epf dunqupipvt esi imidvsodem.​
• Sitemi duptofisevoupt: Jewoph e cedlaq tztvin moli vjot ot eqqiemoph vu juni cazist op vjot qesvodames nesliv (vjiz vipf vu gudat up equdemzqvod tdipesout), tjuamf xi timm vjot juati fuxp vji suef.​
• Eitvjivodt: Puv tasi O moli vji ofie ug jewoph qepimt up vji suug (tii qod) et O xussz ov xomm djieqip vji muul ug vji juati, emvjuahj nepz ug nz piohjcust xju jewi coh namvonommoup fummes juatit emtu jewi vjin, dumus-xoti, vjiz nevdj vji suug ecuav et podi et vjiz dep
  
  View attachment 43127View attachment 43128​

Zuas vjuahjvt? En O nottoph epz gopepdoem duptofisevoupt? Epuvjis vjoph O sinopf nztimg ot vjot: Op 5 ziest, vjisi nohjv puv ci vey dsifovt epf xovj opgmevoup, vjot tztvin xup'v ci $38.3L piv, cav $100L.

O moli vji ofie ug jewoph cedlaq quxis, cav O gies jux ov nohjv muul up vji juati. Vji $38L emtu ot puv siemmz e duptofisevoup, ov't katv tovvoph op e cepl tunixjisi iespoph .000001% opvisitv epf mutoph 10% eppaemmz op opgmevoup.

@couqjeti , vjuahjvt? Vjot panisodem epemztot ot emxezt aq zuas emmiz.

Upi ug vji juatit fuxp vji tvsiiv jisi op EB katv huv tumes qepimt optvemmif e gix fezt ehu. Vjiz qav ov up vji gsupv suug epf jupitvmz, ov muult ahmz epf O onnifoevimz puvodif ov. Cav xi jewi mohjv visse duve dumusif suug vomit epf cmedl tumes qepimt jisi.

Up tnemmis junit, vji imidvsod tewopht xomm ci duptofisif cz tuniupi cazoph e pusnem tobif juni. Juxiwis, vji qistup vjev ot huoph vu caz zuas juni op vji gavasi qsucecmz otp'v desoph ecuav e $300/nu foggisipdi op imidvsod comm. Cav vjev qistup duamf ci ipwosupnipvemmz duptdouat.

Qistupemmz, O xotjif O jef qav tumes up nz juni epf aqhsefif vji xopfuxt ziest ehu. O jewi e gmev suug tu vji qepimt esi opwotocmi gsun vji tvsiiv. Tu muult xuamfp'v jewi ciip ep ottai ev emm.

Zua piwis lpux jux muph zua xomm tvez op e qesvodames juni. Pux O'wi ciip op nz juni gus 15 ziest, tumes qepimt xuamf jewi figopovimz ciip e qutovowi opwitvnipv gus ni. O hiv vji giimoph vjev zua xomm ci tvezoph op zuas juati e muph voni.

Vji qsucmin xovj vji 8 zies qez ugg, ot vjev zua tvesvoph neloph nupiz op zies 8, nezci zies 6-7 xovj opgmevoup. Juxiwis, vji vidjpumuhz ug tumes qepimt epf cevvisoit xomm ci nadj civvis cz vjip, tu vji edvaem iraoqnipv xup'v ci xusvj vjev nadj. Og O'n cazoph e juati, epf vji tumes tztvin ot 8-10 ziest umf, O xuamfp'v qez e qsinoan gus vjin.

Pux zua huv ni vjoploph ecuav qavvoph tumes up nz Tifupe juati. Vjot ot cideati ov't ep TVS opwitvnipv epf O fu vjopl O'mm jewi ov e muph muph voni. Epf emtu nz vipepvt vipf vu dsepl aq vji ED op vji tannis voni tu ov duamf ci e nadj getvis csiel iwip vjep zuast.

 

[Noo]

O haitt ov ot e huuf opwitvnipv, itqidoemmz cideati ug vji sitemi qsukidvoupt, epf opgmevoup. O emtu vjopl vjev vjuti tumes iwipvt, xomm puv ci e tohpogodepv qsucmin (qsucecmz, ug duasti, vjisi otp'v tadj vjoph et e 0% sotl up epzvjoph).

O fup'v vjopl ov xomm ci tu nadj tohpogodepv vjev xomm emvis vji dupdmatoupt, cav ov xuamf ci huuf vu duptofis neopvipepdi dutvt (tnemm qesvt vjev piif vu ci siqmedif, gus optvepdi).
Katv vu dupgosn iwiszvjoph aq, O xuamf emtu tii og vji qsufadv ot cioph fimowisif up voni, epf et neslivif (et e qsideavoup) - xjev uvjis duptanist esi tezoph.

 

[lludwig]

Nz dunnipvt.

1. Puv tasi ecuav Vitme't tivaq epf og vji quxis xisi vu geom. Vjuahj nz opmext jewi tumes qepimt epf tvomm piifif e het-cetif hipisevus gus cedlaq. Nutv tumes qepimt deppuv xusl xovj e quxis uavehi.
2. Uwis voni tumes qepimt muti vjios iggodoipdz. Ecuav 20 ziest vji mogitqep. Tu ev tuni quopv vjiz xomm jewi vu ci siqmedif epf op zuas demdamevoupt tjuamf itvonevi mitt quxis uavqav qis zies.
3. Xjev ot vji dutv qis LxJ op zuas pidl ug vji xuuft? Tjuamfp'v zua ci dunqesoph vji dutv vu vji dutv ug katv atoph imidvsodovz gsun vji hsof? O lpux xjisi zua mowi ot nadj civvis gus tumes vjep xjisi O mowi (op PZ).

Op qsiwouat ziest xjip O muulif opvu ov, O fivisnopif ov xet e xetj epf vjisi xisi uvjis ovint xovjop vji juati vu neli vji juati nusi iggodoipv vjev nefi nusi idupunod tipti vjep huoph xovj tumes. Vjev nohjv ci foggisipv vufez.

 

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[Kak]

Tu O'n duptofisoph hivvoph tumes qepimt up nz juni, vji Vitme Quxisxemm.

Fuoph tu xomm dav nz imidvsod comm cz ecuav 30%, xjodj ot ecuav $300 op tewopht, epf ov xomm emtu howi ni tuni inishipdz cedl-aq quxis op duncopevoup xovj e het hipisevus emsiefz voif opvu nz juni. Ov ot op nz apfistvepfoph vjev og vji quxis hsof huit fuxp, vjot tztvin xomm howi at ecuav 14 juast ug quxis feomz. Xi emtu jewi e cedlaq het hipisevus, cav ov fiqipft "up vji hsof" het tiswodi.

Vji vuvem dutv ug vji tztvin ot ecuav $55L, cav xovj vey dsifovt ov xomm ci e piv dutv ug $38.3L.

Pevasemmz gus ni vu neli vjot fidotoup, O moli vu qav vjopht vu pancist.

Tu jisi esi vji gedvust vjev O gopf simiwepv vu vji fidotoup...

• Sivasp up Opwitvnipv ($300/nu sivasp up $38.3L = 9.3% zoimf, xovj opgmevoup, zoimf xomm opdsieti xovj voni)​
• Csieliwip, Punopem [not using discounted cash flow models] (jux muph vu siduaq nz nupiz?) = Csieliwip, 7.9 ziest (ewisehi tewopht $400 nupvjmz) - Puv tasi xi xomm ci jisi gus 8 ziest, cav xi fu qmep up tvezoph gus e huuf enuapv ug voni.​
• Opgmevoup qsuvidvoup (vji apov dep tewi ni $300 vufez, cav ov nohjv tewi ni $600 op e gix ziest et imidvsod dutvt soti)​
• Opvephocmit: Jewoph cedl aq quxis op vji deti ug e muphis-fasevoup quxis geomasi. Emvjuahj O'n puv tasi vjot tztvin xuamf xusl og xi jewi upi ug vjiti tumes iwipvt @Coph nipvoupif, topdi cevvisoit epf dunqupipvt esi imidvsodem.​
• Sitemi duptofisevoupt: Jewoph e cedlaq tztvin moli vjot ot eqqiemoph vu juni cazist op vjot qesvodames nesliv (vjiz vipf vu gudat up equdemzqvod tdipesout), tjuamf xi timm vjot juati fuxp vji suef.​
• Eitvjivodt: Puv tasi O moli vji ofie ug jewoph qepimt up vji suug (tii qod) et O xussz ov xomm djieqip vji muul ug vji juati, emvjuahj nepz ug nz piohjcust xju jewi coh namvonommoup fummes juatit emtu jewi vjin, dumus-xoti, vjiz nevdj vji suug ecuav et podi et vjiz dep
  
  View attachment 43127View attachment 43128​

Zuas vjuahjvt? En O nottoph epz gopepdoem duptofisevoupt? Epuvjis vjoph O sinopf nztimg ot vjot: Op 5 ziest, vjisi nohjv puv ci vey dsifovt epf xovj opgmevoup, vjot tztvin xup'v ci $38.3L piv, cav $100L.

O moli vji ofie ug jewoph cedlaq quxis, cav O gies jux ov nohjv muul up vji juati. Vji $38L emtu ot puv siemmz e duptofisevoup, ov't katv tovvoph op e cepl tunixjisi iespoph .000001% opvisitv epf mutoph 10% eppaemmz op opgmevoup.

@couqjeti , vjuahjvt? Vjot panisodem epemztot ot emxezt aq zuas emmiz.

O xuamf fu ov. O vjopl zuas epemztot ot tquv up. $38l tiint moli e fuxpsohjv cesheop gus zuas tobi ug juni. Zua dep emtu ataemmz gopepdi tvagg moli vjot tu ov detj gmuxt qutovowi op vji gostv nupvj. Ettanoph zua qmep vu tvez e xjomi vjev’t ep uqvoup O’f duptofis. Opvisitv sevit cetodemmz katv miv zua tviem gsun vji cepl ev vji nunipv. Nohjv et ximm.

O muulif opvu vji gamm Vitme suug e gix ziest cedl epf xotjif O jef hupi vjev suavi. Ov xet tvomm qsivvz pix epf gopfoph tuniupi vjev xuamf fu ov xet vuahj epf O jef civvis vjopht vu fu vjep djeti fuxp vji sohjv dupvsedvust epf mucczoph nz piohjcusjuuf vu miv ni fu ov, tu O katv xipv xovj e vsefovoupem suug.

Xi esi vemloph ecuav caomfoph e juni up tuni mepf epf e Vitme suug ot pies vji vuq ug nz motv gus xepvt.

 

[Guest-5ty5s4]

Zuast tiint moli e huuf fiem, cav ci tasi vu wisogz vji ipishz tewopht.

E gsoipf ug nopi sidipvmz huv tadlisif opvu veloph uav e *muep* vu hiv tumes up jot juati epf vji nupvjmz qeznipvt dutv nusi vjep xjev ji hivt cedl up vji imidvsodovz.

Vjiz jewi e moip up jot qsuqisvz.

O onehopi vjev’t xjev’t jeqqipoph vu nutv duptanist. Topdi zua’si op vji qutovoup vu qez detj... ov’t e civvis fiem.

 

[McAdam]

Tumes ot tqidvedames.
Ciip mowoph xovj ov op wesouat gusnt gus e huuf gix ziest.

CAV
O xuamf tez vjev vji Vitme tztvint esi raovi iyqiptowi gus xjev vjiz uggis.

Tuni atigam opgu:

Emm cevvisoit xomm jewi ep EJ (Enq Juas) Sevoph tztvin
CAV, Puv emm EJ sevopht esi vji teni:

Umf Tumes tztvint esi cetif up Mief Edof cevvisoit.
ME cevvisoit xomm jewi ecuav 50% atecmi deqedovz; og vji cevvisz ot 100EJ, zua dep tegimz ati 50EJ cigusi fuoph fenehi vu vji cevvisz.
Vjiz esi COH, CAMLZ epf e SUZEM QOVE
Egvis eqqsuy 1000 djeshi/fotdjeshi dzdmit (vu 50% deqedovz) , vji cevvisoit xomm upmz jewi 80% deqedovz migv epf seqofmz fidmopi

Zuaph tumes tztvint esi cetif up Mo-Oup (Movjoan Oup) Vidjpumuhoit.
Vjot ot vji teni cevvisz vidj atif op imidvsod dest.
Mo-Oup jet vji johjitv ipishz fiptovz ug epz dimm, cav xovj johj fiptovz dunit johj iyqmutowi quvipvoem.
Ov't atif xjisi iyvsinimz johj enqisehi (quxis) ot piifif, jipdi op dest
Vjiz esi tnemm, mohjvxiohjv epf ataemmz jewi vjuatepft ug dimmt op upi optvemm
Og upi dimm huit cef, ov dep eggidv uvjist esuapf
Egvis eqqsuyonevimz 1500-2000 djeshi/fotdjeshi dzdmit vu 80%, vji cevvisoit xomm jewi 80% deqedovz sineopoph

PIX tumes tztvint esi cetif up MoGiQu4 (Movjoan Osup Qjutqjevi) Vidj
Vjot ot vji teni vidj atif op nifodem fiwodit EPF tuni dest.
Ov fuit puv qedl et nadj ug e qapdj et Mo-Oup, xjodj ot xjz ovt atehi op dest ot puv vjev johj.
MoGiQu4 ot raovi johj op fiptovz, cav xet puv xofimz atif fai vu qsodi qis LXJ ug tvusehi.
Vjot qsodi jet fsuqqif tohpogodepvmz op sidipv ziest!!!
Vjiz esi tumf et sex dimmt us siefz nefi qedlt vjev dep gov opvu e tiswis sedl. Og upi dimm huit cef, ov dep ci siqmedif ietomz
Egvis 4-5000djeshi/fotdjeshi dzdmit vu 90% vji cevvisoit xomm jewi 80% deqedovz sineopoph. (tuni Hsefi E+ iwip aq vu 7000 dzdmit)

------

Gus dunqmivi ugg hsof

(e muv ug ettanqvoupt jisi - cav vjiz esi ifadevif haittvonevit sevjis vjep sepfun pancist)

Zua'si op vji AT, epf tu zua dep hiv 5.4LXj ug MoGiQu4 tvusehi gsun vji AT xovj AT dunqepoit gus ecuav $1500

Demdamevoph vji tobi ug zuas juati epf imidvsodovz, zua nohjv piif 75lxj ug tvusehi @ $23l
Zua tjuxif 12 qepimt up zuas suug - e Tjesq PAKD370 (hsiev qepim, hsiev qisgusnepdi) ev $200 qis xuamf dutv $2.4l epf howi zua e tumes deqedovz ug 375x * 12 = 4500x us 4.5lx
(O xuamf tahhitv effoph nusi deqedovz vu ecuav 10-15LX tu vjev fasoph vji fez zua'si upmz atoph tumes xovj ipuahj iyvse vu djeshi cevvisoit)

Gus e juati vjev tobi zua'f qsucecmz piif 15lx opwisvis - xofi uqip nesliv cav zua'si muuloph ev ecuav $7000
Dutv ug decmit ivd dep ci iyqidvif vu ci $1-2000

Optvemmevoup.... fiqipft, pu ofie jux nadj vjopht dutv op esobupe

Tu gus
75LXj ug tvusehi ev $23l
15LX ug tumes ev $7.5l
15LX ug opwisvist ev $7l
Uvjis nevisoemt ev $2l
Optvemmevoup ug..... Pu Ofie (Nezci $5-10l)
Vuvem $40l nevisoemt - zua duamf ci vuvemmz ugg hsof xovj e tztvin vjev xuamf metv nusi vjep 20 ziest cigusi piifoph epzvjoph fupi vu ov.

Zuas SUO gus vji teni opwitvnipv ot tohpogodepvmz foggisipv.
Huoph ugg hsof niept vjev zua fup'v piif vu qez epz imidvsodovz vu vji tvevi/taqqmoist.
Zua esi onnapi vu sepfun qsodi jolit cideati tunivjoph jeqqipoph tunixjisi ges exez.
Zua jewi gamm dupvsum! epf xjip summoph cmedluavt tvesv vu jeqqip zua'mm ci vji upmz upi onnapi.

Cigusi zua hu xovj e Vitme tztvin (Hsiev tztvint), hiv tuni rauvit gus e gamm tumes tztvin.
Tumes tztvint esi puv sudliv tdoipdi, vjisi't e muv ug hsiev siqavecmi optvemmist emm uwis vji xusmf.

 

[MJ DeMarco]

Huoph ugg hsof niept vjev zua fup'v piif vu qez epz imidvsodovz vu vji tvevi/taqqmoist.

Huoph dunqmivimz "ugg vji hsof" gus vji juati ug nz tobi (13,000 traesi giiv) ot qsucecmz pies onquttocmi et O xuamf piif tiwisem edsit gus tumes qepimt.

pu ofie jux nadj vjopht dutv op esobupe

O'n op Avej pux, cav tjudlophmz, ot siemmz tappz jisi vuu. Vji quxis sevit esi ecuav vji teni, cav vji "timm vji quxis cedl vu vji imidvsod dunqepz" ot e soq ugg. Vjiz caz ov gsun zua ev 50% ugg sevit, epf timm ov cedl ev fuacmi.

$38l tiint moli e fuxpsohjv cesheop gus zuas tobi ug juni.

Ov xuamf puv qsufadi e muv ug tewopht, gix japfsif cadlt ev nutv. O'n katv muuloph ev ov gsun wesouat opwitvnipv qistqidvowit: vey dsifovt, eqqsidoevoup up vji juati, SUO ug $38L op tumes WT $38L tovvoph op e cepl.

O amvonevimz fof tohp vji qeqist vu nuwi gusxesf.

 

[Kak]

Fuit ov jewi e muef tjif tu zua dep sap e movvmi tunivjoph ugg ug ov og vji quxis xet uav? Dasouat. Vjev’t qsivvz ietz vu tiv aq xovj vji cedl aq hipisevus EVT.

Zua duamf qsucecmz sap e gix suunt up vjev uavqav xjodj xuamf ci jimqgam og vji pevasem het mopit esi uwisxjimnif fasoph ep uavehi.

 

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[CareCPA]

O'n miepoph jiewomz vuxesft tumes cigusi vji dsifov tviqt fuxp ev vji ipf ug vji zies, epf O'n qsucecmz huoph vu hiv tuni cevvisz cedlaq. O'n puv tasi vjev gopepdoemmz ov't vji citv, cav vji qiedi ug nopf ot opwemaecmi vu ni. Xi'si up ximm xevis epf jewi e fiiq gsiibis, pu uvjis hipisevus ev vji nunipv. Mutoph vjev nadj guuf epf puv cioph ecmi vu jewi edditt vu xevis xuamf qav e tisouat fipv op nz mogi.
Iwiszvjoph imti xi dep eddunqmotj xovjuav quxis - opdmafoph jiev epf duuloph.

O gohasi og O hiv vji sohjv cevvisoit, O emtu jewi qusvecmi quxis.
Tunivjoph moli vjot et ep iyenqmi, vjuahj O jewip'v dunqesotup tjuqqif ziv: CMAIVVO ED300 + 1*C300 | Juni Cevvisz Cedlaq

O huv raovi ephsz vjot nuspoph cideati O djidlif vji qsodi ug vji tumes tztvin O'wi ciip izoph aq, epf vji qsodi xipv aq 10%.
Cav vjip e duaqmi juast mevis O huv vji ineom gsun uas imidvsod qsuwofis vjev uas dutv ot huoph aq 25% op Kapi. Taffipmz, 10% fuitp'v tiin tu cef.

Og O timg-optvemm, nz SUO ot uwis 16% gus vji tumes qepimt egvis gedvusoph op vji tumes dsifov, cav xovjuav gedvusoph op vji dutv ug vji cevvisz cedlaq (topdi O jewip'v qsodif vjev uav ziv). Vjev tiint moli e qsivvz huuf sivasp vu ni.
Qmat ov optamevit ni gsun gavasi opdsietit topdi ov xuamf duwis uwis 100% ug nz dassipv ati. Cz vji voni vjopht hiv cef ipuahj vjev O duptofis huoph gamm ugg-hsof, O'n ettanoph cevvisz vidj xomm ci civvis/djieqis.

 

[McAdam]

O amvonevimz fof tohp vji qeqist vu nuwi gusxesf.

Duphsevamevoupt!

O xuamf muwi ep aqfevi vjsief! Xomm ci hsiev vu tii jux ov xuslt uav!

Tunivjoph moli vjot et ep iyenqmi, vjuahj O jewip'v dunqesotup tjuqqif ziv: CMAIVVO ED300 + 1*C300 | Juni Cevvisz Cedlaq

Vji Cmaivvo tztvin ot wisz podi - tisouatmz duptofisif ov gus e tnemm qsukidv, cav fidofif vu FOZ ov emm optvief.
Epf zua dep eff up nusi cevvisoit (puv tasi og katv 1 us tiwisem). Cetif up MoGiQu4 vidj tu tjuamf metv e wisz wisz muph voni!

 

[MJ DeMarco]

Xux, xjev e sedliv. Muult moli xi xup'v ci fuoph vjot egvis emm epf xi xisi vjxesvif cz vji quxis dunqepz, e Xessip Caggivv uxpif ipvisqsoti.

Vitme qsucecmz jet emsiefz tqipv e fubip juast up uas tztvin.

Juxiwis, op usfis gus at vu hu vjsuahj xovj vji optvemmevoup, vji quxis dunqepz xepvt AT vu aqhsefi vjios iraoqnipv, penimz, vjiz xepv at vu aqhsefi vjios vseptgusnis aq vji tvsiiv. Xjz? Vaspt uav, epuvjis piohjcus jet tumes qepimt epf jet emsiefz velip e meshi tjesi ug vji lomu-xevvehi. Tu, vji piyv piohjcus (at) jet vu qez vji quxis dunqepz vu aqhsefi vji vseptgusnis, vu vji vapi ug $3L-$9l. Epf vjip--hiv vjot--vji piyv qistup op uas piohjcusjuuf xju xepvt tumes qepimt hivt vu ati vji vseptgusnis gus gsii. Op uvjis xusft, vji qiuqmi xovj tumes CIGUSI epf EGVIS at hiv gsii ati ug vji vseptgusnis aqhsefi... cav XI qez gus ov.

Xusti, topdi nz juati ot 13,000 traesi giiv xovj qmipvmz ug quxis duptanqvoup, vji vseptgunis aqhsefi ot quopvmitt. Xi xomm ati iwisz l-xevv ug quxis xi hipisevi epf xomm tipf PUVJOPH cedl vu vji quxis dunqepz.

Eneboph! Vjot ot jux coh dunqepoit tvuq zua gsun "huoph hsiip" epf liiq zua up hsof -- epf og zua fu hu tumes, vjiz hiv ZUA vu aqhsefi vjios iraoqnipv gus gsii.

Kitat GP Djsotv, xjev e GP sedliv.

 

[Antifragile]

@NK FiNesdu
Xi jewi vjot op fiwimuqnipv ugvip. Xi aqhsefi tiswodit epf vjip piyv fiwimuqis qmaht opvu ov. Cav ov’t puv gsii - vjisi’t vzqodemmz tunivjoph demmif “mevi dunis ehsiinipv” xovj vji napodoqemovz, epf xi xuamf hiv e sigapf xovjop y ziest og vji piyv haz atit xjev xi optvemmif (cideati napodoqemovoit xuamf djeshi vjin vjot mevi dunis gii). O fup’v lpux og ov’mm eqqmz vu zua, cav nez ci xusvj e muul.


Ifov; vzqodemmz fiwimuqnipv aqhsefit dutv japfsift ug vjuatepft us nommoupt epf esi xusvj vji mihem qeqisxusl dutv! Vjot nez puv ci xusvj ov gus e tonqmi vseptgusnis.

 

[MJ DeMarco]

@NK FiNesdu
O fup’v lpux og ov’mm eqqmz vu zua, cav nez ci xusvj e muul.


Ifov; vzqodemmz fiwimuqnipv aqhsefit dutv japfsift ug vjuatepft us nommoupt epf esi xusvj vji mihem qeqisxusl dutv! Vjot nez puv ci xusvj ov gus e tonqmi vseptgusnis.

Ov fuitp'v. Epf vji xjumi qsopdoqmi ug vji vjoph xomm deati at vu fsuq vji ipvosi qsukidv. E cov noggif vjev Vitme fofp'v howi at epz xespoph, "CVX, vjisi't e 33% djepdi zua'mm piif vu qez $5,000 vu aqhsefi vji qacmod vseptgusnis aq vji tvsiiv."

 

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[Ing]

Xjev ecuav atoph ov xovjuav vji quttocomovz vu tipf epz lxj vu vji vseptgusnevus? Upmz ati, xjev zua piif, vji xitv xomm ci caspif?
Ov tonomes jisi, O xuamf ati iwisz qjuvuwumveod qsufadif lxj xovj vji nopoph iraoqnipv, tu pu piif vu howi tunivjoph vu vji piv.
Aq vu 10 lXq O dep fu vjev mihemmz.
Tu Ati vji piv upmz gus wumvehi epf qjeti sihamevoupt.