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Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency Discussion (And Predictions)

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With notice that I probably sound like a rookie(which I am). BTC currently dipped around 10/11% in the last month, do you guys see this as a "big" dip or is this just some adjustment. I ask because I've bought certain stocks/coins before thinking they had gone in a dip only to see it crash in the month after I bought, I'm 22 and this extreme political situation is one of the first ones that I am trying to grasp and see opportunities in, I will not take answers as direct advice FYI.

Edit: I have changed my buying strategy to assets that I would hold for life, let's say S&P500. I'm just trying to figure out even in that case, when it is the "right" time to buy.

Pull up the chart and zoom out. It's barely noticeable on a 1 year chart, much less anything longer.
So no, that's nothing close to a big dip.
 
With notice that I probably sound like a rookie(which I am). BTC currently dipped around 10/11% in the last month, do you guys see this as a "big" dip or is this just some adjustment. I ask because I've bought certain stocks/coins before thinking they had gone in a dip only to see it crash in the month after I bought, I'm 22 and this extreme political situation is one of the first ones that I am trying to grasp and see opportunities in, I will not take answers as direct advice FYI.

Edit: I have changed my buying strategy to assets that I would hold for life, let's say S&P500. I'm just trying to figure out even in that case, when it is the "right" time to buy.
Only in hindsight will we know. However, if you are trying to time the market instead of DCA, it's recommended to buy heavily when there is "blood in the streets". This means to have a cash reserve until some major bad news occur, like a global pandemic, war or a financial crisis, and then only when prices have tanked 40-60% from the highs do you slowly start accumulating.

Many asset classes are so volatile and interwoven with the global financial system that any movement 5-10% in either direction can be interpreted as second-order effects or mere noise.
 
Only in hindsight will we know. However, if you are trying to time the market instead of DCA, it's recommended to buy heavily when there is "blood in the streets". This means to have a cash reserve until some major bad news occur, like a global pandemic, war or a financial crisis, and then only when prices have tanked 40-60% from the highs do you slowly start accumulating.

Many asset classes are so volatile and interwoven with the global financial system that any movement 5-10% in either direction can be interpreted as second-order effects or mere noise.
Thank you, for now I’ll focus on saving money then instead of investing. Since sadly enough I think we are close to some major bad news.
 
With notice that I probably sound like a rookie(which I am). BTC currently dipped around 10/11% in the last month, do you guys see this as a "big" dip or is this just some adjustment. I ask because I've bought certain stocks/coins before thinking they had gone in a dip only to see it crash in the month after I bought, I'm 22 and this extreme political situation is one of the first ones that I am trying to grasp and see opportunities in, I will not take answers as direct advice FYI.

Edit: I have changed my buying strategy to assets that I would hold for life, let's say S&P500. I'm just trying to figure out even in that case, when it is the "right" time to buy.

It's a small correction. 10% is totally normal for BTC.
Trump and his admin have openly admitted to wanting to dominate in crypto, and this fort knox reveal could serve as an important piece to that puzzle.

Lolz, don't hold your breath.
 
Big technical breakdown today, didn’t see any specifics why?

Only this...

Some have pointed to recent events, such as the $1.4 billion hack of crypto exchange Bybit and a memecoin scandal surrounding Argentina's president Javier Milei, as reasons for continued pressure on bitcoin and other digital assets.
 
Big technical breakdown today, didn’t see any specifics why?

Only this...
- Bybit Hack: $1.5 billion lost, sparking panic selling.
- U.S. Tariff Fears: Potential inflation hurting risk assets like Bitcoin.
- Institutional Pullback: $489.60 million in ETF outflows showing less interest.
 
Looks like MicroStrategy is buying more, I keep reading that Trump is buying up ETH (not sure how true that is), Trump's son is telling people to buy the dip. I think we can even out a bit more but overall I'm bullish on Crypto.
 
Crypto isn`t a get rich quich thing. People, who think, they come in and make their life`s living in 3 months by buying and selling 3 monts later will .... not do it.

There`s a saying : being in ony 4 year cycle is for learning, the second one is for earning. And it`s quite acurate.

Short term predictions are most likels shit.

BTC : there`s still an open CME gap at 74k. Will we fill it soon? Or later?

So quite safe money you can make from cycle low to top. Or buy and hold more than a cycle.


So no, a 10, 20 or 30% dip doesn`t make me crying.

With notice that I probably sound like a rookie(which I am). BTC currently dipped around 10/11% in the last month, do you guys see this as a "big" dip or is this just some adjustment. I ask because I've bought certain stocks/coins before thinking they had gone in a dip only to see it crash in the month after I bought, I'm 22 and this extreme political situation is one of the first ones that I am trying to grasp and see opportunities in, I will not take answers as direct advice FYI.

Edit: I have changed my buying strategy to assets that I would hold for life, let's say S&P500. I'm just trying to figure out even in that case, when it is the "right" time to buy.
No matter what you do now, imo most likely if you succeed in cashing out this cycle top in Q4 this year and invest a year later in BTC and hold it for decades, you will be a quite wealthy man all your life.
 
Big technical breakdown today, didn’t see any specifics why?

Only this...
a 5% of eth marketcap theft ( or 5 per mil of total crypto mc) most likely won`t cause a 10 or 20% dip.
Imo the small crypto mc makes it possible to play the big volantile manipulation game by whales. They can`t(and don`t want to) impede the 4 year cycle, but they can form it in the way they want.
 
Big technical breakdown today, didn’t see any specifics why?

Only this...

I'm convinced that tying market movements to the news is almost always a fool's errand. The media is even less trustworthy on market actions than they are on politics. Flooding your brain with irrelevant information and false causation claims doesn't help one make good decisions.

I placed some small buy limit orders yesterday, as we're approaching the buy target I was looking for since I sold back in November. The analysts I follow are strictly technical, and their predictions are based on price action alone.


News can be a catalyst that nudges the market into moving as it was already set up for. Like a couple in a bad relationship that finally breaks up after a fight that started over something petty. The "thing" isn't really why they broke up, it was just the straw that broke the camel's back.
 
I'm convinced that tying market movements to the news is almost always a fool's errand. The media is even less trustworthy on market actions than they are on politics. Flooding your brain with irrelevant information and false causation claims doesn't help one make good decisions.

I placed some small buy limit orders yesterday, as we're approaching the buy target I was looking for since I sold back in November. The analysts I follow are strictly technical, and their predictions are based on price action alone.


News can be a catalyst that nudges the market into moving as it was already set up for. Like a couple in a bad relationship that finally breaks up after a fight that started over something petty. The "thing" isn't really why they broke up, it was just the straw that broke the camel's back.
This is a good approach. Most people don't think ahead and are too reactive. They don't place limit orders or have targets in mind. I know I don't most of the time.
 
Now < 85K.
 
One thing seems to be certain is bitcoin maximalism taking place.

Trying to identify Alt Season is trying to find surviving dinosaurs these days.
 
I haven’t been this excited about the price of Bitcoin since the last time it was at this price!

🙄
 
Big mistake. Gold has already risen 45%. You bought at the top.
It’s maybe top when you are looking at days or weeks.

In terms of months and years, it’s like saying BTC toped at 3k in early 2017.

Russia and China government had a lot of undeclared gold.

A lot of the boomer generation oligarchs in the west has a lot of gold.

There is a lot more paper gold than real physical gold in the market as well.
 
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yikes this was supposed to be another bullish catalyst.

Don't know how long we've got before crypto enters too deep into political territory.
And then TFLF can't cover it no more...
 
I don't worry about the so-called "starting of a bear market".

The bad years are usually triggered by the Fed's intentional planned and announced rate hike (not in this case) or unwinding of internal or external disasters, 2008 financial crisis or 2020 pandemic. Even if that happens, as long as you stay unleveraged (very important), within 12-18 months the Fed will bail you out and you are about to reach new all-time highs for your portfolio.

After 2008, the government watched the market very closely. There has been no more free market. Fed has tens of ways to inject liquidity into the market.

Of course the Fed can choose not to save us. The middle class and Many rich people will be wiped out. Poor people will starve to death literally.

The worst case scenario will be inflation going out of control again. Our asset prices will look insanely good in nominal values, but it is just so so when it comes to actual purchasing power.

Jumping back into crypto (rather than overall risk asset) the thing that differentiate crypto from other assets such as stocks and bonds is the extreme leverage that is present in the system. You can go 20-50-100x in centralized exchanges. So unwinding can be sudden and extremely ugly.
 
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So the general consensus is to DCA into crypto?

I currently have $50 on Kraken spread among BTC, ETH, SOL, AVAX and XRP. By DCAing a hundred or so monthly, I hope to be a rich man 10 years from now.
 
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yikes this was supposed to be another bullish catalyst.

Don't know how long we've got before crypto enters too deep into political territory.
And then TFLF can't cover it no more...

Sorry, that was me. Been looking for this pullback for months, and I got impatient, so yesterday I texted Trump to shake the bush and get things moving. Looks like it's working.
 
If Donald Trump comes out today or this week or this month and says something along the lines of: "America is going to create and fill a strategic bitcoin reserve and commit to X BTC acquisitions per year until Y percentage of the network is secured by America".

Price go up or down?

1741464065026.webp
1741464235456.webp

Down 20% since I asked this question. At the very top.

My crystal ball says ~20-30% corrections might happen, with alts getting rekt 50-70%.

If it hit 100k then went back to test closer to ATH I wouldn't be surprised.

But I think we're still ~mid cycle.

Still wondering about this prediction I had made.

Is there a blow off top still ahead for this cycle, or have we already topped?
 
Interesting how BTC has taken on correlation with the market...

As soon as the market opened, it dropped a few %.

Clearly these are non-traditional BTC investors not buying on exchanges and dropping coins in Nano wallets.
 
Crypto is going to go the way of Gold and Silver. It is going to be a paper market with barely anyone actually holding the product. In the case of precious metals, the physical material in your hands, with crypto, the coins in your own wallet.

Wall street is in on it, and its going to be 95% bot trading, and any poor sucker getting in and out of the market is going to be slaughtered.

At this point my hopes of "Alt season" and being able to swap over to BTC when they did their spectacular run is going to zero. I am still just leaving a machine on in my basement and garage. It freaking snowed last night and I at least want some heat in those hard to reach areas of the house. My mining machines have changed from a coin-miner-that-makes-me-heat, to a space-heater-that-gives-me-a-few-worthless-tokens-that-mean-nothing.

I am holding to zero. F it.

As MJ always says, work on your business, anything else is just fluff until you are wildly successful. Okay maybe he didn't use those words, but the point remains. Honestly it feels good that if it does go to zero it really doesn't matter. I will go "oh that sucks" and move on with my life. That is a good feeling.
 

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