Apartment Market: Future cycles

[G_Alexander]

Found this article and thought that maybe some of the apartment investors here would be interested. I am sure many of the seasoned investors here are already well aware of the trends that will be coming down the line. Also, the highest amount of college graduates over the next 10 years (baby-boomers' children). But here it is anyways:

Business 2.0: Next Job Boom Cities

Only God knows what will happen to the economy over the next few years here though.

-Alex

 

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[NoMoneyDown]

It's interesting they put "Intel" under one of the employers to watch for Austin, TX. Several years ago (1999? 2000?), Intel began construction on a building in downtown Austin. Once the economy started tanking, they put the job on hold. All they managed to complete was a shell. It sat, and sat, and sat, and remained an eyesore for a few years until finally they (or the new buyer) demolished it with explosives one weekend morning.

 

[RealOG]

Intel is one of the few tech companies in a strong position. Despite having a down economy, they are still pursuing growth in tangential markets (like embedded, communications, automotive) to the PC. While they will tighten their belt in some areas (getting more streamlined), they will hire in others. Net impact should be zero.

They have a very low debt load, own most of their real estate outright, and have massive (and I mean MASSIVE) cash in the bank. They are planning $7B in capital expenditures over the coming years as they advance their manufacturing capabilities.

Intel is poised for growth, at least as much as any company can be right now.

 

[G_Alexander]

This all puts you in a great position RealOG. You are right there in AZ...and most of the growth here is expected in the Sun Belt.

I'm not sure how far you guys like to expand your portfolios, but Phoenix is also expected to have major growth if you are planning on staying local.

I'm eager to see what members here buy in the next few years.

-Alex

 

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[randallg99]

gotta be a way to short Chinese real estate....

I love the line: "it defies logic" ...


Beijing's Olympic building boom becomes a bust - Los Angeles Times

 

[SteveO]

Thanks for the information. Each of these areas have some sort of economic forecasting/monitoring websites that are full of information. Here is an example:

Arizona Workforce Informer, home, HOME

There is a lot of information if you dig around.

 

[G_Alexander]

Thanks SteveO! That site really has some great information too.

You also got me to google the same for Illinois and I came up with this WIC - Home Page

I will definitely reference back to workforce sites when researching demographics for new areas.

-Alex

(PS. Have to spread the wealth before I can Rep+ you again, but I will be back lol)

 

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[Andrew]

Would be a good idea to re-read the date on that article.

 

[G_Alexander]

Would be a good idea to re-read the date on that article.

You would be correct: if a new census had been conducted since then, which it hasn't.

Or if you had read the article you would have noticed that it stated:

To find hotspots for job growth, you only have to look south. From Las Vegas to Orlando, sunny suburbs are the best bets to find fast-growing job markets between now and 2015.

This is based on various algorithms used to decipher the growth and economic growth of certain populations; including the fact that the highest number of college graduates (baby-boomers children) will be peaking from 2010-2018; ask my good friend Vollucci or Berges.

And

Austin is the rare tech hub that still seems poised for double-digit growth

Not sure if you research investing in apartments, but I know at least two very savvy apartment investors on this forum alone who have been buying in Texas over the last year or two.

Unless you took early delivery on the 2010 census or have access to demographic information I do not, I would say this article is very accurate indeed; otherwise I would not have posted it.

Tech is booming in Texas still, it was the Forbes largest college graduate growth state in 2008. I'm sure 2009 won't be on the decline there as far as tech industries go.

"An earlier version of the accompanying gallery listed median income and housing data from 2000 for these 10 cities. It has since been updated with 2005 figures."

-Alex