$AAPL skydives 10% after hours after earning conference call.

[Stu_Hefner]

What you guys think? Any Fastlaners take advantage of this? Options traders are making a killing before that conference call.

Who would have thought $AAPL would be in danger of dipping under its 52week low? Wow!

http://www.valuewalk.com/2013/01/apple-inc-aapl-down-10-munster-defends-gundlach-says-300/

 

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[Vigilante]

I am seeing an after hours trade at $463? Is that possibly correct?

 

[Stu_Hefner]

I am seeing an after hours trade at $463? Is that possibly correct?

Yes. Market value dropped $50 a/h. Some people think it will drop into the 300s.

Edit: I remember @Jake on the forum doing an experimental $1000 flip with options trading by taking advantage on earning. I would be interest to know if he was analyzing this.

Here are some of the posts in the thread from him:
https://www.thefastlaneforum.com/ge...th-whats-your-method-choice-2.html#post258501
https://www.thefastlaneforum.com/ge...onth-whats-your-method-choice.html#post254579
https://www.thefastlaneforum.com/ge...onth-whats-your-method-choice.html#post254742

 

[Jake]

Yes. Market value dropped $50 a/h. Some people think it will drop into the 300s.

Edit: I remember @Jake on the forum doing an experimental $1000 flip with options trading by taking advantage on earning. I would be interest to know if he was analyzing this.

Here are some of the posts in the thread from him:
https://www.thefastlaneforum.com/ge...th-whats-your-method-choice-2.html#post258501
https://www.thefastlaneforum.com/ge...onth-whats-your-method-choice.html#post254579
https://www.thefastlaneforum.com/ge...onth-whats-your-method-choice.html#post254742

I was interested to see how Apple fared but I wasn't directly invested in it. I am however invested in 2 companies that Apple pays royalties to.

It wasn't exactly experimental, my timing just lined up with that thread. I do have skin in the game.

Holy shit @ NFLX +35% AH

 

[Stu_Hefner]

I was interested to see how Apple fared but I wasn't directly invested in it. I am however invested in 2 companies that Apple pays royalties to.

It wasn't exactly experimental, my timing just lined up with that thread. I do have skin in the game.

Holy shit @ NFLX +35% AH

I was interested in seeing what happened to AAPL and NFLX today also. Those AH moves happened just when I woke up. These were huge opportunites on the market. Very interesting stuff to me!

Thanks for sharing your input, I was following your trades in that thread.

 

[rc08234]

Jobs is rolling over in his grave with the new mid sized ipad. They are making products just to make them and he was totally against that. Also the new commercials are horrible, the best thing on the iphone 5 in the "do not disturb" button:!?!?!?! Shit, my 3gs has that...

 

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[Jake]

These were huge opportunites on the market. Very interesting stuff to me!

Jan NFLX 125 calls started the day at .05. If it opens near the AH close they'll be worth around $15! Missed that opportunity to make millions :bgh:

 

[GPM]

I do not understand how shorts and all that fun stuff work, but on another forum I go to people were all gung ho to purchase AAPL when it hit $650, they thought it would just go up forever. I thought they were all crazy and told them it is probably wiser to short it, from what I understand almost all of their profits come from a phone that is no longer considered top dog. Not a company I would be investing in.

 

[Vigilante]

NFLX looks incredible. Great gains for the longs today. Wish I was one of them!

 

[MJ DeMarco]

Jan NFLX 125 calls started the day at .05. If it opens near the AH close they'll be worth around $15! Missed that opportunity to make millions

And the stock was hinting at something was up for the weeks prior with the run-up... and to think I was selling call spreads on this thing a few months back when it was around the 50's. Whew!

 

[andviv]

NFLX looks incredible. Great gains for the longs today. Wish I was one of them!

I'd love to hear the process of identifying opportunities like this.

At this point still sounds like a crazy gamble to me, but there must have been signals and metrics pointing to this.

How do we play Moday Quarter Back on this transaction?

 

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[CommonCents]

Hats off to apple for developing brand loyalty, but buys you only so much time these days, you must still deliver value to the market and they are showing signs of slipping. AAPL has high expectations and they are bumping up against the ceiling of big growth. Will Apple TV revolutionize TV and get them back on trajectory? Samsung is already way ahead in the tv category and is missing a big oppty to market the link between TV/smart phone to leverage that.

Apple had the innovation edge in the past and was far ahead of competition for years, but not anymore. So they better expand their product line quickly to match competition. Jobs thought iphone should be used by one hand only, keeping it small. The market is proving him wrong. iphone is still a huge portion of their story. Apple better hope none of their loyal fans see a samsung galaxy S3 or a galaxy note2 and other competition, because people won't look back unless apple makes much larger phones along w/ upgraded features. The voice to text and digital pen are freakin stellar.

Having said that, I will not take a position against them. You will be fighting wall st and the fed. AAPL is approx 15%? of the index? and is a proxy for a "healthy" economy partly propped up by 85 billion of taxpayer money monthly created by the fed.

 

[CommonCents]

Icahn is being interviewed on bloomberg today about his netflix investment.

I'd love to hear the process of identifying opportunities like this.

At this point still sounds like a crazy gamble to me, but there must have been signals and metrics pointing to this.

How do we play Moday Quarter Back on this transaction?

 

[Vigilante]

Not sure. The stock market is a sheer gamble for me. I bought some Apple (AAPL) today just for fun, and a few others like MSFT and RRIM (today). However, usually when I try and gamble in the stock market, I am up against people with superior knowledge and insider information. I sold BBY at $13.20 last week for a nice gain... just before it continued it's run UP to $15.30 + this week.

I gamble better on horses. At least in horse racing, I understand the odds and the edge better. In a few days, I will be back out of the stock market. I need more predictable gains, and until I learn how to do something like options trading... I am simply wagering just like you might put your money on black or red at the Roulette table in Vegas.

 

[andviv]

The stock market is a sheer gamble for me.

Thanks for your honesty.

Every time I read about opportunities like this I try to dissect what indicators were there, to see if I can understand it better, or see some pattern. I must be dumb and dumber on the market variables cause I don't get it yet.

 

[andviv]

Icahn is being interviewed on bloomberg today about his netflix investment.

so what is he saying?

Did he make a killing with it? Did he lose money? What strategy was in place by him?

I recall he tried to take over and failed, is that correct?

 

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[andviv]

And the stock was hinting at something was up for the weeks prior with the run-up...

Like what?

How do you spot these hints? What makes you raise alarms about something like this happening?

 

[snowbank]

I do not understand how shorts and all that fun stuff work

I thought they were all crazy and told them it is probably wiser to short it

seems solid

 

[snowbank]

The stock market is a sheer gamble for me.

Same.

Despite this, I've make a very substantial investment in Apple, due to my belief that it's a + EV gamble

It is crazy how easily the market is influenced by news. Most of the news is written by people who don't know very much, or they would be doing, rather than reporting.

I've made my investment in large part because of the thoughts of a couple people also investing heavily on the stock, who I believe are extremely smart/logical people and well researched.(note: I would not recommend this) Most people are influenced to invest in what other people are doing/advise to do, but they are usually listening to people who don't know what they're talking about. There's substantially more people who don't know what they're talking about, than there are those who do. The one's who don't know what they're doing are more likely to give you their opinion, because the one's who do know what they're doing don't need validation.

Something to think about: Apple didn't miraculously become 10%+ less valuable overnight. Apple's shares did. Shares are based on people's perception of what it's worth.(not saying this means you should buy or not buy)

(this wasn't in response to anyone, just thoughts in general of what I see)

 

[Amail]

I do not understand how shorts and all that fun stuff work

I thought they were all crazy and told them it is probably wiser to short it

seems solid

The Pimp Hand is strong with this one!

 

[GPM]

Thanks for pointing that out snowbank. Listening to me give stock advice is probably not a good idea. I just figured that people were crazy for saying it would keep going up.

http://silverinmalaysia.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/bubble-phases.jpg

Sorry for just posting a link to a chart but I am on a computer that is using IE7 (I have to) so nothing works.

 

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[CommonCents]

Icahn announced a 10% stake in netflix in November and he's sitting on approx $430million profit since then.

His rationale is with the current and future generations of TVs being smart TVs it'll be real simple for netflix to expand internet delivered TV able to really take on cable/satellite.

He's got a good point. Icahn said up until now, you have to be a tech guru to figure out internet TV from laptop/pc to your TV. The smart TVs will make it easy for average people(broad market) to jettison expensive cable/satellite for a netflix type internet TV alternative.

so what is he saying?

Did he make a killing with it? Did he lose money? What strategy was in place by him?

I recall he tried to take over and failed, is that correct?

 

[Jonleehacker]

It is crazy how easily the market is influenced by news. Most of the news is written by people who don't know very much, or they would be doing, rather than reporting.

Bill, here's an article that you might find interesting:

Why Apple is worth less than Netflix - MarketWatch

There are two parts to the logic.

First, Apple is in weak hands, but Netflix is in strong hands. The best way to determine weak or strong hands is to analyze tick trade data. This is the equivalent to what old-timers use to call “tape reading.†We have designed computer algorithms to analyze the tick-trading data. For us, computer algorithms are necessary because we follow 3000 U.S. stocks, 1000 international stocks, and over 200 ETFs. However, an investor focused on only a handful of stocks can visually look at a tick chart and see where the large trades are taking place. If they are taking place at bid, it is bearish. If they are taking place at the ask, it is bullish.

The second part of the logic is determining the difference between expectations set by the whisper numbers with actual results. Whisper numbers are one of Wall Street's best-kept secrets. Whisper numbers are usually made available only to the most-favored clients. Astute investors know that stocks move based on the difference between actual reported numbers and whisper numbers. Investors focusing on published numbers are usually left holding the bag. It is important to analyze the difference in both actual numbers and projections.

 

[Rickson9]

It is crazy how easily the market is influenced by news. Most of the news is written by people who don't know very much, or they would be doing, rather than reporting.

This is what creates amazing opportunity.

Something to think about: Apple didn't miraculously become 10%+ less valuable overnight. Apple's shares did. Shares are based on people's perception of what it's worth.(not saying this means you should buy or not buy)

Fantastic observation. I strongly agree.

 

[Rickson9]

Icahn is being interviewed on bloomberg today about his netflix investment.

I didn't invest in Netflix, but this is exactly the reason behind why I like to invest alongside multi-millionaires/billionaires. All 6 of the businesses that I own (Fossil, K-Swiss, The Buckle, Berkshire Hathaway, American Eagle, Columbia Sportswear) are owned by very wealthy Americans. It's not perfect, but the batting average is very good.

Billionaire investor Carl Icahn wins big with Netflix bet

It's such a huge hint it's impossible for me to ignore. For example, back in the past when Oakley used to be a public company, the CEO-founder Jim Jannard owned 70% of the stock. One week in summer, I notice that he buys millions of dollars worth of stock at $10. I look at the business and everything checks out. I piggy back and a year later Jim cashes out for $30 per share ($2 billion total for Jim). The same thing led me to American Eagle. It happens over and over and over again.

 

[Yussef]

I have always heard investors say "buy the rumor, sell the story." I believe that still holds true and will always be so.

It goes back to what I say about consumer confidence. The stock market is one big mood swing after another and if you can spot and move on consistent trends you are more likely to do better than looking for a consistent stock that wins.

I mean come on, with technology changing so rapidly, and a large percentage of consumer electronics being produced for companies like Apple in China, how long do we think they can protect their patents and remain on top without hungrier competition getting into the game with better reverse engineered devices?

Steve Jobs was the face that kept the natives at ease but that still did not change the inevitable fact that Apple can not sit at the head of the table forever. Netflix set a standard and so did Apple for a time but I don't believe it's because of the company being in weak hands. I believe the writing has been on the wall for some time now and that's just from conversations I have had in the cell phone stores ...and I love Macbooks.

 

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[Stu_Hefner]

Here are some options traders I follow that took advantage.

 

[Stu_Hefner]

Like what?

How do you spot these hints? What makes you raise alarms about something like this happening?

There was a slight run up on NFLX over the last couple weeks just before earnings. This was speculation that earnings will be positive. That was the market hint. Result: NFLX 40%+

I'd love to hear the process of identifying opportunities like this.

At this point still sounds like a crazy gamble to me, but there must have been signals and metrics pointing to this.

The good traders are all about risk management and analysis. In my opinion a lot to do with market emotion, and timing. You don't have to be right all the time, but as you can see, when you are, there is huge pay offs and opportunities if you do it correctly. But I agree, so much factors can determine where the price of a stock will head. It can really get confusing.

The options traders I mentioned in my post above use "tape-reading" to analyze their trades. They bank of huge opportunities like this. A great opportunity to own the slaughter house, as MJ would put it.

How To Make $23,000 In One Freaking Day … Own the Slaughterhouse.

 

[Stu_Hefner]

What you can take away from all this:

RylandCapital ‏@RylandCapital

if you price in expectations. and they do not meet expectations then it will sell off $AAPL

RylandCapital ‏@RylandCapital

YES $AAPL numbers were record breaking. but the market likes to price things in before they happen.

There are opportunites when a stock is valued highly but does not meet the expectations of that valuation (and vice versa) at earnings.

Sang Lucci ‏@Sangluccitrades

I wasn't gonna hate on Apple longs but damn after all this how can I not?How many of you **** ****** told me I was an idiot for shorting?

Sang Lucci ‏@Sangluccitrades

If you're still sitting there questions but why, but why, but why then you just DONT understand how the market works

@sellputs

@Sangluccitrades its about risk reward.. not gambling on direction.. i think very few people were on right side of $AAPL trade..

Sang Lucci ‏@Sangluccitrades

When $AAPL bounces you all are gonna climb back on those nuts and yell at me again. But listen, it's about understand how the market WORKS!

Like Snowbank mentioned. Who is to say that AAPL won't hit 700 again or reach greater heights? It very well might, but today presented an opportunity and people were able to bank $60k. These opportunities will always be out there. This reminds me of a post I read from zend***phin about picking up a house for a bargain because the lady was going through a divorce, even when the housing markets were booming. Same thing applies here, in my opinion.

 

[Jake]

Looks like Icahn may be going to battle with Ackman in HLF Carl "Give Me Three Seats on Your Stupid Board" Icahn is Going to Destroy Ackman - Stock Picks and Discussion at iBankCoin | The Fly

Good videos