Hyperinflation starting? What's happening in your area? Post your ground reports.

[Matt33]

If a man is $1 million or $1 in debt he has less than a homeless person with nothing. Last time I checked the United States was $28 trillion the poorest country in the world by those standards. Time to dig ourselves out of the hole.

https://www.usdebtclock.org/

We are in debt for $28,000,000,000,000 of unbacked paper, created out of thin air. Most of it isn’t even paper, it’s just pixels on a screen.

 

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[MJ DeMarco]

Kinda like how FIVERR is no longer about $5 jobs.

Hard to brand your business with a dollar amount amid rampant inflation that the government still denies.

Dollar Tree, known for its $1 deals, is raising prices to cope with rising shipping costs and inflation

CEO Michael Witynski suggested Tuesday that some prices could rise $1.25 or $1.50 in certain Dollar Tree stores, without giving more details.

www.businessinsider.com

 

[JunkBoxJoey_JBJ]

I read a book back in the future called the Billionaire Fastlane

 

[Antifragile]

We are in debt for $28,000,000,000,000 of unbacked paper, created out of thin air. Most of it isn’t even paper, it’s just pixels on a screen.

You are a painter. You get a contract to paint a house for $10k. You got the bank and they give you a loan for $5K to buy supplies because you have a contract. The guy with the house just signed a paper and you got a loan. You now finish the job and get paid. You have $5K profit that you put in the bank and 13x that is being lent out to others. The guys with a newly painted house goes to the bank too. Look, the house is nicer and worth more. Appraisal comes in higher because someone on the block bought a similar house for more! New mortgage, more money back to the house owner. He hires a landscaper. Landscaper borrows money... You get the pattern.

It is not just the money (pixels on a screen), it's the availability of credit floating next to the money that can cause a bigger problem. 2008 was a great example. Yet by now it feels like ancient history, greek mythology. Our memories don't go back THAT far back

Lastly, out of the $28.... that USA owes in debt, to whom? If part of that $28 replaced the credit portion, then it's less of a problem. Or is it the opposite? Fuelled even more credit and spending?

 

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[DoingDeals]

Just read an interesting article earlier today Jamie Dimon says JPMorgan is preparing for the US to default on its debt, warning that such a scenario would be 'potentially catastrophic'.

 

[Matt33]

You are a painter. You get a contract to paint a house for $10k. You got the bank and they give you a loan for $5K to buy supplies because you have a contract. The guy with the house just signed a paper and you got a loan. You now finish the job and get paid. You have $5K profit that you put in the bank and 13x that is being lent out to others. The guys with a newly painted house goes to the bank too. Look, the house is nicer and worth more. Appraisal comes in higher because someone on the block bought a similar house for more! New mortgage, more money back to the house owner. He hires a landscaper. Landscaper borrows money... You get the pattern.

It is not just the money (pixels on a screen), it's the availability of credit floating next to the money that can cause a bigger problem. 2008 was a great example. Yet by now it feels like ancient history, greek mythology. Our memories don't go back THAT far back

Lastly, out of the $28.... that USA owes in debt, to whom? If part of that $28 replaced the credit portion, then it's less of a problem. Or is it the opposite? Fuelled even more credit and spending?

Unbacked fiat money and long term fractional reserve lending have created some type of an overstimulated false economy

Ever since we got off the metals (gold standard, taken off in 1971), Productivity and compensation have grown further and further apart. Most of this money is just congregating at the top of the stock market and real estate market.

 

[MJ DeMarco]

As some of you know, I like cheap cigars, namely Swisher Sweets. In the last 6 months, I've had a terrible time finding them. Even the online cigar shops have them backordered.

I recently moved and need to buy furniture. Looks like I'll have to enjoy this new home without furniture -- everything is backordered 3-5 months.

Went to look for some stereo speakers.... same outcome: backordered.

Not only are prices going up, but stuff that was once easily purchased has become impossible to buy. I want to spend, but cannot.

 

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[WJK]

As some of you know, I like cheap cigars, namely Swisher Sweets. In the last 6 months, I've had a terrible time finding them. Even the online cigar shops have them backordered.

I recently moved and need to buy furniture. Looks like I'll have to enjoy this new home without furniture -- everything is backordered 3-5 months.

Went to look for some stereo speakers.... same outcome: backordered.

Not only are prices going up, but stuff that was once easily purchased has become impossible to buy. I want to spend, but cannot.

We're having the same problems with finding parts for EVERYTHING!

 

[Deleted70138]

impossible to buy. I want to spend, but cannot.

My parents used to tell me the same stories, about soviet times in 80s - you could enter the supermarket, but there was nothing to buy.

 

[WJK]

My parents used to tell me the same stories, about soviet times in 80s - you could enter the supermarket, but there was nothing to buy.

Yes, the shelves are bare, and the supply lines are broken. And this is a great opportunity for USA to bring our manufacturing home again. We can do it. We know how to do it. With the addition of AI and robots, we can do it better than before. So, we must have the will to get started and stop belly aching...

Edit: To continue... We had a more difficult summer due to the lack of lumber. We did NOT get all of the jobs done that we had scheduled. My husband had to harvest trees, cut them on our saw mill, and then we built roofs with that lumber. I usually buy semi-truck loads of logs that my husband and his helpers cut on our saw mill for our projects. Our supplier milled the logs he had set aside for us, and he sold the lumber at top dollar. He made a lot of money and he did what was best for him. And we, likewise, did what was best for us.

There are things we couldn't do this summer because we did NOT have the building materials at the moment that we needed them. Now, as the fall comes on, we're fine. This too shall pass.

Shake-ups like this one, are usually more of a "shake-out" than a tragedy. Those who cannot cope -- those who are NOT prepared -- lazy people who are sliding along -- those who are over extended and living on thin ice -- and the inexperienced -- end up on the wrong side of these situations. I had no idea it would be global pandemic, but I've been preparing for the next cycle for the last few years. I'm not saying you can foresee and be prepared for anything every time. I am saying that I'm old and wise enough to meet these moments head-on. I know how to make a whole pitcher of lemonade out of a single, old, ugly lemon.

 

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[Jeannen]

Printful, a Print on Demand platform just raised the price of every single product. It vary from a few cents to a few $, but the raise is definitely here

 

[Esquire]

Everytime I see the Democrats demanding trillions in new welfare programs I think to myself ... holy shit. God Bless Joe Manchin and Sinema. Think its bad now. Inflation will be insane. Throw in Social Security trust fund running to zero in 2026. Nightmare scenario. Democrats will then demand even more stimulus packages. The currency will continue to be debased. The writing on the wall could not be any more clearer. Hyperinflation is just getting started.

 

[RicardoGrande]

AHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

The workers who keep global supply chains moving are warning of a 'system collapse'

Seafarers, truck drivers and airline workers have endured quarantines, travel restrictions and complex C0VlD-19 vaccination and testing requirements to keep stretched supply chains moving during the pandemic.

amp.cnn.com

Even the MSM is tacitly admitting the shortages.
From everything I read, everything in the supply chain is a huge cluster f--- with part of the blame on longshoreman shortages, part of it on "anti-covid" measures, and another part on recent u.s. regulation that really hampers semi-truck activity in california (oh and a lot of repair parts for semis are stuck in some of those 130+ odd ships stuck in the port of LA). Most of the shipping committees state it may take 3-4 years to get "back to normal".
I don't know how much of it all is true, but I just can't see what the power players would have to gain from making everything as painful and distressing as possible for the average person... unless they're... you know... trying to manufacture a crisis?

For inflation, the nasty cheap butt-roasts I used to get for 1.99$/lb from costco last year have finally hit 6$/lb as of yesterday, and this costco in Texas had about 1/4th the total volume of red meat out it usually did just a month ago.
Allegedly some of the u.s. feed lots are just running out of feed, not a good situation, but it could be an opportunity for u.s. beef to finally turn to regenerative pasturing like Australia does.

Gas has managed to stay below 3$/gal here in the south but it keeps bouncing up and down and kissing that 3$ mark before rocketing back to 2.80$/gal.
It looks like china is also having an all-hands on deck situation with gas as well?

Zerohedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

Still waiting for everything to hit rock bottom but it just keeps getting worse and worse.

 

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[GPM]

Gas prices in Canada are bonkers right now. This is a big wide open country with big vehicles and trucks. We don't exactly drive micros like in Europe.

I was at Booster Juice and they also sell 2lb bags of protein. I used to get them from time to time for $35. They are $43 today. Protein powder at Costco also went up $5-10 across every packaging, depending on the brand. That's equal to 10-20% in a single jump.

I haven't bought red meat (other than ground beef) since May due to the price increase of ~30% since that time. I eat significantly more fish now, and I think my health thanks me. I haven't really missed it yet to tell you the truth. I eat salmon once a week now which is probably for the better.

 

[YanC]

French gov just announced they would cap energy prices to face price increases. Interestingly enough, like real estate, the cost of energy is very much underestimated in the official calculation of inflation. Of course, the problem will still show up elsewhere. Funny how they try to sweep the dirt under the carpet. At least they'll be able to tell how they are here to help the good people of France, while they created the problem in the first place.

 

[MTF]

Official inflation in Poland for September is 5.8%, the highest in 20 years. It's forecasted to exceed 7% by the end of this year.

Considering the crazy social programs they want to implement next year that involve giving free stuff to their unproductive voters and taking money away from the productive ones, I won't be surprised to see 10% within a year.

I'm really glad I'm diversified across different currencies and assets.

 

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[GIlman]

French gov just announced they would cap energy prices to face price increases. Interestingly enough, like real estate, the cost of energy is very much underestimated in the official calculation of inflation. Of course, the problem will still show up elsewhere. Funny how they try to sweep the dirt under the carpet. At least they'll be able to tell how they are here to help the good people of France, while they created the problem in the first place.

The government never learns. Price controls always leads to shortages. The next step if for the government to start rationing the public. Rationing leads to terrible terrible outcomes that are often not predictable but always cause human suffering in some form.

This cycle has repeated over and over again. Painful as it is to the wallet, allowing prices to surge to short supply or rising demand incentivizes companies to find creative solutions to produce and deliver more, which ultimately will drive prices down from their highs.

Listening to politicians talk, the World Economic Forum, and the UN…I’ve come to believe that a lot of this is actually intended and desired by these people. They don’t talk about things returning to normal, they talk about a new normal. The way they describe this new normal is dystopian and nothing like we are use to living.

While people here are interested in prosperity and what that entails, they appear fully invested in control and domination. Which always leads to a loss of prosperity.

 

[Kak]

The government never learns. Price controls always leads to shortages. The next step if for the government to start rationing the public. Rationing leads to terrible terrible outcomes that are often not predictable but always cause human suffering in some form.

This cycle has repeated over and over again. Painful as it is to the wallet, allowing prices to surge to short supply or rising demand incentivizes companies to find creative solutions to produce and deliver more, which ultimately will drive prices down from their highs.

Listening to politicians talk, the World Economic Forum, and the UN…I’ve come to believe that a lot of this is actually intended and desired by these people. They don’t talk about things returning to normal, they talk about a new normal. The way they describe this new normal is dystopian and nothing like we are use to living.

While people here are interested in prosperity and what that entails, they appear fully invested in control and domination. Which always leads to a loss of prosperity.

They view people as problems to be managed instead of a source of betterment and innovation.

Look up the Great Enrichment for some fun reading. The reason for our standard of living now vs 500 years ago was the embrace of the individual. The top has never and will never have the monopoly on good ideas. That’s why there are always new self made entrepreneurs from every generation.

Society is reverting to centralized ruler which is what kept civilization in bondage.

 

[Guest-5ty5s4]

This is a HUGE opportunity. With AI and robotics available -- coupled with the higher labor and goods costs in China added to the shipping fees -- we can and should do it right here at home.

That is especially true for smaller businesses that can find a niche. My CPA bought a business that manufactures gaskets for older engines, and he ships his goods all over the world. He had to move to an area that has a terminal for his international shipping. No one wanted to buy this company and the old owner had to retire -- so my guy bought it for a song. How much of that old equipment that can still be used is sitting out there????

This is what I'm talking about! Does the CPA now work there full time, or does he still spend most of his time as a CPA?

Wonder how he manages the new biz.

We REALLY have a huge opportunity to manufacture at home.

In fact, just browse Alibaba services and factories and start copying what they do.

Might be a good time to order some machinery for making basic widgets and things, find a cheap garage somewhere, and hire some guys on craigslist.

 

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[Antifragile]

In Cananda liberal party came to power and ramped up taxes on “the rich”. Highest personal tax went up from 46% to 53%.

To get out from inflation you need productivity to increase. Problem is, these high taxes hit the people who are most productive. Those who earn in the highest bracket are ones who often produce the most and get kicked in the nuts the most. Those who are asset rich aren’t affected. Those who are not as productive get lower taxes.

Small business is the backbone of Canadian economy and our government doesn’t get it. It’s simple, it’s basic - increase productivity. Leave those who produce alone. Celebrate them, reward them. The rest will want the same treatment and start new businesses etc. It‘s a virtuous cycle if you just let it be.

Instead, the thing that gets them re-elected is more stimulus money printing, more big speeches, promises… Ugh…

 

[DoingDeals]

Everyone has seen the Dollar Tree is raising their prices by now. I've been watching the European markets crashing & Dow Jones recovering after losing several points rebounding. There's a restaurant owner I know paying $1,500 in rent & the landlord increased it to $6,000. We are definitely not out of the fallout & it's just the beginning stages of hyperinflation.

 

[Guest-5ty5s4]

Everyone has seen the Dollar Tree is raising their prices by now. I've been watching the European markets crashing & Dow Jones recovering after losing several points rebounding. There's a restaurant owner I know paying $1,500 in rent & the landlord increased it to $6,000. We are definitely not out of the fallout & it's just the beginning stages of hyperinflation.

Same thing happened to a restaurant near me, except their landlord was the local government EDC.

 

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[DoingDeals]

That usually means they wanted to price you out of the market.

 

[MTF]

Inflation has his tourist accommodations as well. I can't believe how much I had to pay for a very mediocre place in the Canary Islands (and how pissed off I am to have paid so much like a sucker). I compared prices from 2016-2017 to today and they're 2-3x higher for the exact same rental in the same or similar period.

 

[Walter Hay]

Shake-ups like this one, are usually more of a "shake-out" than a tragedy. Those who cannot cope -- those who are NOT prepared -- lazy people who are sliding along -- those who are over extended and living on thin ice -- and the inexperienced -- end up on the wrong side of these situations. I had no idea it would be global pandemic, but I've been preparing for the next cycle for the last few years. I'm not saying you can foresee and be prepared for anything every time. I am saying that I'm old and wise enough to meet these moments head-on. I know how to make a whole pitcher of lemonade out of a single, old, ugly lemon.

Over the course of more than 40 years in business I have seen quite a few recessions, some truly major. My businesses survived them all.

With each recession I saw friends and business associates go under. The reason was that they had over-capitalized and operated with big overheads, much of which was completely unneccessary and was simply to feed their egos with a display of wealth.

On the other hand, probably due to growing up in poverty, I worked on minimum overheads, with only the necessities. This enabled me to weather the downturns.

Hold on to that single, old, ugly lemon.

Walter

 

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[Walter Hay]

This is what I'm talking about! Does the CPA now work there full time, or does he still spend most of his time as a CPA?

Wonder how he manages the new biz.

We REALLY have a huge opportunity to manufacture at home.

In fact, just browse Alibaba services and factories and start copying what they do.

Might be a good time to order some machinery for making basic widgets and things, find a cheap garage somewhere, and hire some guys on craigslist.

I completely agree with you and with @WJK. In fact since 2014 I have been urging people to buy local.

There are some companies that have had the foresight to reshore their operations, but too many have become addicted to using Chinese cheap labor.

Like so many addicts they have been blind to the damage their addiction is causing them, but it is not too late to enter rehab. They once before set up and operated manufacturing facilities, and some like Craftsman that I referred to in my post #493 in this thread, have done it with great success.

If the big companies are too slow off the mark, @thechosen1 has made a great suggestion. There really is a great opportunity now to manufacture at home. This is when the small fry can tackle the big fish, but you will have to be quick.

Reshoring has begun in earnest, mainly due to supply chain difficulties. See the good news here: Reshoring Initiative | Reshoring Initiative

Walter

 

[MJ DeMarco]

Inflation has his tourist accommodations as well. I can't believe how much I had to pay for a very mediocre place in the Canary Islands (and how pissed off I am to have paid so much like a sucker). I compared prices from 2016-2017 to today and they're 2-3x higher for the exact same rental in the same or similar period.

Deceptive pics? And you're there for a month?

 

[MTF]

Deceptive pics? And you're there for a month?

That, too but we canceled that first place pretty much the moment we saw it. It's more fitting for the random thread but long story short, the place was 10 meters off the highway with each room in a separate building with a separate key (so bedroom is one building, bathroom is another and kitchen is another). None of it indicated in the listing.

I'm getting too old for shitty Airbnbs.

We later rented another place just to have somewhere to go and stay for a couple of days while we figure out the situation. I negotiated the price but it's still too much for what it is which made me compare it to my past stay on another island (I checked the receipt from 2017 and compared it to today's prices).

I can afford the higher prices but it doesn't change the fact that you feel like a sucker paying so much. I was told by a local friend the inflation is to squeeze the tourists who come (because there are fewer of them so they need to make more on the ones who come).

 

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[WJK]

This is what I'm talking about! Does the CPA now work there full time, or does he still spend most of his time as a CPA?

Wonder how he manages the new biz.

We REALLY have a huge opportunity to manufacture at home.

In fact, just browse Alibaba services and factories and start copying what they do.

Might be a good time to order some machinery for making basic widgets and things, find a cheap garage somewhere, and hire some guys on craigslist.

My CPA is doing taxes during that season and working his gasket business the rest of the year. He says he's NOT retiring.

I just read an article about the supply chain may be broken for the next couple or three years. Parts are currently 3 years on back order. They don't expect the system to recover anytime soon. And it also said that people are turning away from China for manufacturing.

I think that the most important stuff we can maybe start with are basics like screws, fasteners, gaskets and such. I haven't explored that market, so it would take an assessment in order to find the right parts missing from that market. It's a matter of owning the machines that make those simple parts. How about a plastic molding machine? Or to make the molds? The possibilities are endless. But, rather than ordering the machines, I'd find out what machines are sitting idle somewhere waiting to be turned on again...

 

[WJK]

Right now we're trying to get the natural gas in-floor heating system in our big shop plumbed in. We've been able to to get the gas pipe itself. BUT, the connector ends and fittings have been terrible to find. And we got the last boiler for that system from the plumbing store. Can't someone jump in and start manufacturing the parts that we need?????

I went to my flooring store and they had ship in some vinyl flooring for me. My normal brands are discontinued since I last bought some a couple months ago. I ended up buying 2 full rolls for our projects so we'll have enough over the winter. Now that it's here, we have another problem. Each roll weighs 1,500 lbs. My husband is going to dealer in the morning to cut some of it up to put on the floors in a rental that is waiting to have it installed. And we have another rehab project that we can cut for. I usually buy just what I need for my projects, when I need it. It's not working like that right now.

I need a roll of sheet rubber roofing for the rehab project. I finally found a division of a local hardware store chain who had 4 rolls -- so I ordered 2 of them. BUT, they don't have the can of adhesive that I need to install it. That adhesive might be here next spring. Who knows? So, I tried to have shipped in. No way. It's considered to be hazmat. They don't ship to Alaska. I've been working on this problem for over a month. The transfer of the two rolls of rubber roofing took about 3 weeks to get transported to my local store.

I need to replace a bunch of fencing boards before winter at one of my rentals. I thought about buying some of those plastic boards that never rot. White would be nice. I wouldn't have to ever paint them. And it would seem to be a good use for old milk jugs. BUT, I couldn't find any of those boards. So, I figured we use some of those white plastic trellis panels. NEXT. I couldn't find any of those either. So, we have some slab, black spruce, boards from our saw mill. I guess we'll cut them and stain them in my wood shop -- so we can put them up.

We need a bracket for a shower door. I don't know how the tenant broke that one little piece that holds up the door. No, we can't find it. So, my husband made one in his metal shop. Now I just have to find the plastic rollers to make it work. No luck so far. I'll keep trying.

These breaks in the supply chains are making my life just plain hard. I'm getting pretty frustrated. And that's not even talking about the higher prices for all of this stuff!