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Hyperinflation starting? What's happening in your area? Post your ground reports.

RicardoGrande

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Gas is breaking past 3 dollars where it used to be 2.20$ this time last year (in a major city mind you).
Fast food places loudly advertising 14$/hr fry cook jobs on their signboards.
I used to go get cheap steaks from aldi on fridays, what used to be 7.99/lb is now 13.99/lb for the same grade of beef.
At the very least, most meat at costco is still at it's normal price point and I've been stocking up and batch cooking to keep saving $$$.

I saw on zerohedge today that the new home-existing home price ratio is at a point we only saw at the peak of the market bubble before the last recession.
I've been working hard on my hustle and was just about to leave my job, but now I'm filled with a lot of doubt, even knowing that there will be tremendous opportunity in just about a year.
 
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WJK

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Gas is breaking past 3 dollars where it used to be 2.20$ this time last year (in a major city mind you).
Fast food places loudly advertising 14$/hr fry cook jobs on their signboards.
I used to go get cheap steaks from aldi on fridays, what used to be 7.99/lb is now 13.99/lb for the same grade of beef.
At the very least, most meat at costco is still at it's normal price point and I've been stocking up and batch cooking to keep saving $$$.

I saw on zerohedge today that the new home-existing home price ratio is at a point we only saw at the peak of the market bubble before the last recession.
I've been working hard on my hustle and was just about to leave my job, but now I'm filled with a lot of doubt, even knowing that there will be tremendous opportunity in just about a year.
I too sat on the sidelines for a time when all this disruption happened in 2020. I'm back investing -- but, very carefully and thoughtfully. Don't jump out of the frying pan into the fire!
 

RoadTrip

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Some of y’all may be familiar with my patented fishing product.
Currently this is a very small startup in the works for me, but I have a thread on INSIDERS for it.

Basically, I have to get manufacturing done overseas because everyone in the states wants to charge more than what it will retail for.

But I just talked to my supplier and he wants to raise his price on me by 21%.

This is a factory in China. He said it is due to a rise in material cost...

It’s probable raw material prices are increasing for your manufacturer. Have you asked them which specific materials have increased in price?

Once they tell you do research whether this specific materials is rising in cost price. If it’s not or if it’s rising less than the 21%, confront them with this fact.

Also, do you depend on only one supplier? I would have a backup if economically feasible.
 
G

Guest-5ty5s4

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It’s probable raw material prices are increasing for your manufacturer. Have you asked them which specific materials have increased in price?

Once they tell you do research whether this specific materials is rising in cost price. If it’s not or if it’s rising less than the 21%, confront them with this fact.

Also, do you depend on only one supplier? I would have a backup if economically feasible.
Yes, I know which material it is. And yes, it is definitely going up.

I can look for more suppliers. It was difficult to get one at all that could make it the correct way, but that's part of the process!
 
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Thoelt53

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Gas is breaking past 3 dollars where it used to be 2.20$ this time last year (in a major city mind you).
Fast food places loudly advertising 14$/hr fry cook jobs on their signboards.
I used to go get cheap steaks from aldi on fridays, what used to be 7.99/lb is now 13.99/lb for the same grade of beef.
At the very least, most meat at costco is still at it's normal price point and I've been stocking up and batch cooking to keep saving $$$.

I saw on zerohedge today that the new home-existing home price ratio is at a point we only saw at the peak of the market bubble before the last recession.
I've been working hard on my hustle and was just about to leave my job, but now I'm filled with a lot of doubt, even knowing that there will be tremendous opportunity in just about a year.
Outside of Boston I saw a McDonalds hiring at $18/hr. Just the other day I paid $22.99/lb for marinated steak tips from a butcher.

We really need a puke emoji.
 

Antifragile

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Time to go vegan because you can’t afford to eat meat!
 

Thoelt53

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Yes, I know which material it is. And yes, it is definitely going up.

I can look for more suppliers. It was difficult to get one at all that could make it the correct way, but that's part of the process!
If your material is steel or aluminum, I expected prices to increase through the rest of the year and likely into 2022.

Plastics I’m not familiar with, although the other day I requested a quote for some custom poly bags made in NJ. I haven’t gotten a price yet but they were upfront about their 12 week lead time.

3 months for plastic bags that UPS can deliver in a few days.
 
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RicardoGrande

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Time to go vegan because you can’t afford to eat meat!
There's a few alt-health people I loosely follow that honestly suspect this angle.
Something something it's a plutocrat-class/agribusiness initiative to force people onto cheap to make and in-vogue bug proteins and subsidy-backed monsanto corn slop and to make them pay for it with their UBI.

To be honest, I almost want to believe it.
Time to start chipping up some new flint arrowheads if ground beef hits 8$/lb.

I still wish I could've been born in the mid-80s so I could've caught and bought a house in the post-08 aftermath and not have to worry about having recession-sheltered equity right about now.

For the existing-home to new-build ration I mentioned, here's one of the articles: Home Prices Soar At The Fastest Pace On Record As Affordability Hits All Time Low | ZeroHedge
 
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MJ DeMarco

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Time to go vegan because you can’t afford to eat meat!

My grocery bills definitely are a lot smaller. I can roll out with 6 shopping bags for $50. And Costco is a lot cheaper.

And just think, if you invest all those meat savings in an index fund, you'll be rich in 50 years! And be alive to enjoy it!

:rofl:
 

Lyinx

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If your material is steel or aluminum, I expected prices to increase through the rest of the year and likely into 2022.

Plastics I’m not familiar with, although the other day I requested a quote for some custom poly bags made in NJ. I haven’t gotten a price yet but they were upfront about their 12 week lead time.

3 months for plastic bags that UPS can deliver in a few days.
Not sure where you are getting your bags, we buy a lot from northeast poly bag co (that's there old name, I'm fairly certain they got merged, but you should still be able to find them)
 
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MJ DeMarco

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tylerwilkinson

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Automotive brake rotors are the next incoming shortage in my industry. They’re all Chinese. It’s just starting to hit consumers and retail, but it will get worse. Warehouse shelves aren’t getting restocked.

Get your brakes done early!
 

RicardoGrande

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I want it to stop but I believe we can see 30% total for the year as a reasonable scenario.


Well so much for the transitory narrative for now. What's the next narrative to bring to the sheeple?
I've seen quite a few CNN/WaPo headlines saying that it's "Good" and a sign of a "Vibrant, thriving economy". Basically they want to gaslight the people that listen to them into thinking that the fact that their low wages can buy even LESS now is somehow good for them.

Automotive brake rotors are the next incoming shortage in my industry. They’re all Chinese. It’s just starting to hit consumers and retail, but it will get worse. Warehouse shelves aren’t getting restocked.

Get your brakes done early!
Did mine myself recently and thankful :thumbsup:
 

The Racing Driver

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tylerwilkinson

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MJ DeMarco

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MJ DeMarco

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Was out of bread and ran in store to buy some of my preferred brand...

$6.79 :jawdrop:

For a loaf of bread.


Transitory...
 
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theag

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We have semiconductor parts in our products. Our manufacturer started urging me to stock up a few weeks ago.

Four weeks ago, I took his advice for the most important parts, although reluctantly, because we already increased inventory levels last year after the supply chain chaos and I would prefer to not have so much cash tied up. Price increase was 10% compared to about 12 months ago, so already noticeable.

Last week he called me again and - déjà-vu - urged me to stock up because of upcoming serious shortages. He has friends in the German automotive supply sector, who are apparently buying up everything they can get their hands on in full panic mode and don't care about the price. He said he is worried that if we don't order now, we might not be able to get these parts for 12-24 months, as these are already the delivery times for other similar parts.

So, again, I took his advice and ordered a volume of those parts that equates to about 24-30 months of sales for these products.

Price increase was another 25% compared to last month. Thankfully, these semiconductor parts, while being a critical component, only make up a small portion of our total cost, so it's still affordable.

The next day I read some news articles, one of which is an interview with the CEO of Infineon (top 10 semiconductor manufacturer worldwide), who says the current shortages could last until 2023.

Good timing on the order and good to have a manufacturing partner with their ear to the market...
 
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Mckenzie

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"The first panacea for a mismanaged nation is inflation of the currency; the second is war. Both bring a temporary prosperity; both bring a permanent ruin. But both are the refuge of political and economic opportunists".
Earnest Hemingway, "Notes on the Next War", Esquire, September 1935:
 
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hellolin

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For all of ya all that are investing gurus, what's gonna happen at the other end of this? Investment eventually becomes money that go to people's hands, mostly working people's hands, because at the end, someone has to use those money to produce something. With the labor shortage in the US, and people flat out refuse to work, and shipping from China being in trouble, how can the US be self sufficient in making our own things? I can only see massive inflation due to people not willing to work at the wages offered at the current level, it's only a matter of time until we reach cost of living rival the EU countries, everywhere in the US.
 

DreSon

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Southern Ontario, checking in. I'm sure this is no surprise to anyone but the housing market is on fire here.

Last summer we were looking to rent a house. You could probably find a half decent little rental for $1800+utilities. New homes were being rented out for around $2000. We're looking again this summer and we can't find anything for less than $2000; doesn't matter if it's a dump or in the worst part of town. Also, and I'm not sure if this is normal in other parts, but now the tenant is also responsible for the hot water tank rental cost.

Houses are going up for sale and selling within weeks, over asking and with dozens of offers.

I noticed gas is gradually higher now as well. The Circle K that I drive by on my way to work is around $1.38/L @ 7am and $1.27/L on my way home.
 

hellolin

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Southern Ontario, checking in. I'm sure this is no surprise to anyone but the housing market is on fire here.

Last summer we were looking to rent a house. You could probably find a half decent little rental for $1800+utilities. New homes were being rented out for around $2000. We're looking again this summer and we can't find anything for less than $2000; doesn't matter if it's a dump or in the worst part of town. Also, and I'm not sure if this is normal in other parts, but now the tenant is also responsible for the hot water tank rental cost.

Houses are going up for sale and selling within weeks, over asking and with dozens of offers.

I noticed gas is gradually higher now as well. The Circle K that I drive by on my way to work is around $1.38/L @ 7am and $1.27/L on my way home.


There are no other productive assets to invest in at the moment, the only productive people are those who can afford to buy the houses. People are now saying no to the essential jobs during the pandemic, people who wants to work already are working. Without immigration, western nations simply don't have enough productive people to produce the lifestyle we are used to.
 
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MJ DeMarco

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My homeowners insurance when up 17%, no particular reason.
My favorite bag of tortilla chips, for years sat at 1.99, now 2.29.
Sardines for the dog... was 3 for $5, now also 2.29 each, or 3 for $6.90.

Sorry but these are not minor increases (inflation is only 4%!) but big moves.
 

WJK

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For all of ya all that are investing gurus, what's gonna happen at the other end of this? Investment eventually becomes money that go to people's hands, mostly working people's hands, because at the end, someone has to use those money to produce something. With the labor shortage in the US, and people flat out refuse to work, and shipping from China being in trouble, how can the US be self sufficient in making our own things? I can only see massive inflation due to people not willing to work at the wages offered at the current level, it's only a matter of time until we reach cost of living rival the EU countries, everywhere in the US.
I see a lot of manufacturing coming back to the USA. But, it's going to be manned by a lot of robotics rather than human hands. It will take time and money to get it all set-up. And a lot of the manufacturing won't take up as much space as we're used to seeing. I think it's a great opportunity for us as a nation. Why do I see this? China has lost its luster and I think that business owners are going to be a lot more head shy about the Asian countries. And Mexico has a cartel problem that hurts their safety factor. But, maybe I'm wrong. We will see.
 

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For all of ya all that are investing gurus, what's gonna happen at the other end of this?

The U.S. Treasury Yield Spread

Looking at the spread between the 2 and 10 year yield is a helpful indicator. It’s usually a leading indicator for slowing growth. Which that’s where we are headed.


I can only see massive inflation due to people not willing to work at the wages offered at the current level

Well, we are definitely living in strange times. People are just not motivated anymore. No one is interested in capitalism or learning about economics. Just people becoming more interested in socialism and admiring lousy politicians.
 
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DreSon

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Well, we are definitely living in strange times. People are just not motivated anymore. No one is interested in capitalism or learning about economics. Just people becoming more interested in socialism and admiring lousy politicians.

I'm fearful of this as well. I have limited knowledge on the subject, but the CERB (Canada Emergency Respone Benefit) here in Canada is, to me, an example of what socialism could be like, and it makes me nervous. When our PM mandated that non-essential businesses close and everyone went into quarantine, they turned on the money printer to keep people above water. The housing market did just fine as people began moving out of the big metro areas to the suburbs (effectively moving the goal posts further from me, a renter) and now that we're opening up again, nobody actually wants to go back to work. The hotel I work at part-time has been calling me more often to cover shifts, and they're offering an employee referral program to get folks in the door. Other people I know in the industry are reporting the same thing, shortages. In the kitchen, waiting staff. Today, it's more attractive to stay home and collect a check from the government than it is to get out and work.
 

DebtFreeDr

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I'm fearful of this as well. I have limited knowledge on the subject, but the CERB (Canada Emergency Respone Benefit) here in Canada is, to me, an example of what socialism could be like, and it makes me nervous. When our PM mandated that non-essential businesses close and everyone went into quarantine, they turned on the money printer to keep people above water. The housing market did just fine as people began moving out of the big metro areas to the suburbs (effectively moving the goal posts further from me, a renter) and now that we're opening up again, nobody actually wants to go back to work. The hotel I work at part-time has been calling me more often to cover shifts, and they're offering an employee referral program to get folks in the door. Other people I know in the industry are reporting the same thing, shortages. In the kitchen, waiting staff. Today, it's more attractive to stay home and collect a check from the government than it is to get out and work.
What is everyone investing in now as a hedge to inflation especially those of us that have cash parked on the side?

I'm going to invest in apartment syndications but also looking into ATM funds that pay out over 7 years and connected with a guy in Austin investing in land entitlements that are paying close to 30%.

What are you guys investing in?
 

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