Meet Joe. He's a director of one of the medical institutes in North America. Recently Joe has become little skeptical about recommending VAX to people. Though he believes, that there is a certain residual wisdom within huge institutions, such as pharma and government, one still can't help but to see certain psychological misjudgments. (Unfortunately he has not listened to "misjudgment of human psychology" by Charlie Munger)
Many times people are smart enough to evaluate right & wrong decisions within their professional domain, but once you have 4 or 5 psychological tendencies working in the same direction, you get your brain mashed up.
So here is Joe's current state of affairs :
1) Incentive caused bias
If one had 2 products, first $100 per item and the other $0.1, which one would one be promoting? Though Joe does not have enough data to evaluate VAX vs VRMCTN, as he spends all his time solving bureaucratic issues and convincing his slightly overweight wife to let him watch a football with his buddies, he has a push from VAX manufacturers to promote their products.
Though Joe is a tough guy and can take a push, he evaluates products based on:
2) Bias from Pavlovian association
In many cases slightly expensive products sell better then cheaper ones, solely due to Pavlovian association - "If it's more expensive, then it must be better". Though it might be true about bags, shampoo, hotel or marketing service, it does not really make sense when you have newly created VAX vs open-source, cheap-to-manufacture pills such as VRMCTN.
Though professional doctors are smart and well intentioned, subconscious tendencies can alter the judgment of even the brightest ones.
Unsurprisingly this one is also accompanied by:
3) Bias from over-influence by social proof
Joes colleagues are promoting VAX, friends of his colleagues are also promoting, director of WHO is in favor and many professional doctors on mainstream media suggest VAX to everybody. It makes it so easy to succumb and do as others do.
And this behavior leads to:
4) Consistency and commitment tendency
What you think may change what you do, but perhaps even more important, what you do will change what you think. Once Joe makes a public disclosure of his conclusions by recommending VAX, he's pounding that idea into his own head.
Once he makes a certain decision, he'll be resistant to bounce back, as it would risk his professional reputation (incentive caused bias), therefore he'll be under the influence of:
5) Bias from reciprocation tendency
Joe's professional reputation is all tied up with what he's said, he likes himself and his own ideas, he's expressed them to other people. Patients and colleagues expect him to remain consistent with his favorable opinion of VAX, so he just tells himself all the reasons to feel good for his reciprocation.
Moreover, there is a thing called:
6) Bias from over-influence by authority
Joe is a pretty successful guy, director of an important institute, but there are guys with more power than him. When those guys express certain opinion, Joe can either agree and remain within the herd, or resist and become a black sheep. Evaluating both scenarios consciously and subconsciously, Joe goes with the flow, just like those German camp-guards in 1940s.
Will he be responsible in case of wrong consequences from VAX? of course not! - Joe is acting according to orders, just obeying the law.
Joe also saw a pattern - those who are in favor of VAX are getting featured on national TV and getting famous, while his sitting in his office, stalking the Instagram of his neighbors' 19 year old daughter (accidentally liked the photo from last year), so he's getting:
7) Bias from Envy/Jealousy:
You worked your a$$ off, studied countless hours of mind numbing medical subjects, remained obedient for decades, did not express your true desires, stayed political correct all these times, so now it's for you to shine, Joe! You deserve this! Your mere presence is divine, therefore all the males must be called Joe and all the females -Joenette. King of Sweden should ask for your opinions and there must room under your name in Kremlin Palace.
This was a TV commercial brought to you by:
8) Bias from deprival super-reaction syndrome
The easiest way to get bitten by a harmless dog, is to try to take out the food from it's mouth. This is even more true about people. Once people, like Joe, can see the power they can get, it will require violence and extreme behavior to take it from them, but usually those below succumb and let them take whatever they desire.
Don't be mad at those wo cut the line, but at those who let them stand in front of them. Conformity is the true sin.
Once Joe get's the power, he will be trapped into cacoon of his own reality, aka:
9) Persian messenger syndrome:
Your work as a scientist in Joe's institute and a new research shows that VAX is much inferior than previously thought. This finding will greatly undermine Joe's reputation. Would you tell him? Most would not, because there is almost nothing to gain, but a lot to lose, including your reputation, job, salary, house, wife, kids, etc.
Now authorities have wrong perception of reality and forget about:
10) Bias from contrast and distortions
See, dictatorships usually don't happen within a day, but by gradually implementing restrictive measures, giving ever-growing power to a small group of people. Under their own perverted psychological biases inflated by childhood sexual traumas, those in power will favor their
goals over individual liberty, including yours.
Once you have no liberty and freedom, remember that you've been under influence of:
11) Simple psychological denial
Reality was too painful to bear, so you've distorted until it's bearable by being succumbing piece of conformist with no personal boundaries.
Hope this will brighten your day.