Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency Discussion (And Predictions)

[maverick]

*Warning Shitcoin Shill - Invest at your own very high risk*

Wanswap looks like a really promising project with a lot of upside. Very low marketcap and seems to be a good team.

Introducing WanSwap — The Wanchain Based Cross-chain Decentralized Exchange With Automated Market…

WanSwap enables cheap, scalable, and truly trustless multi-chain asset trading

medium.com

Basically another Defi project with Farming/liquidity pairing. Slick UI, fast transactions and low fees.

Like has been said before some Defi projects can be good for speculation and some crazy APY from farming if the market stays in a bull run.

Beware of Impermanent loss when providing liquidity pairs/yield farming

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8XJ1MSTEuU0

WanSwap was initiated by a small anonymous group of Wanchain core community members including experienced software developers, web developers, designers, marketers, and more.

Sounds legit /s

 

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[JamesQB8]

The first thing I look at when evaluating shitcoins is to look at their Github. I only found this: WanSwap. Seems quite dead?

They were around in 2017 but have just started their new wanswap project. Seems like a good asymmetrical bet.

 

[Kevin88660]

By calling everything other than BTC and ETH as shitcoins we're doing ourselves an injustice. I used the term and laughed at your Shitcoin Olympics because it's both hilarious and interesting how random projects are getting funded. Truly, some of them are shit.

It's rather shallow to think that all will dump 99% - with that view I argue that you might never have been an early adopter in bitcoin or ethereum.

I think the time is right and the marketplace is beginning to showcase more and more use-cases. I'm willing to gamble a small portion to experiment. I'm not saying it comes without risk.

If you go to twitter there are a lot of people shilling their favorite coins are calling other coins shitcoins.

The crypto game unfortunately is shouting for attention to push the price of your own bag higher. It is not deliberately scheming or misleading but more of a biased attitude and hands in the honey pot blind faith.

Maximalists are shouting against other coins because alt coins act as a downward drag towards btc’s insane valuation against alt.

80 percent of crypto demand is speculation, buying it and hoping to sell it off later at higher price. Whenever btc goes too high and alts are not moving people are going to ask “is btc overvalued or alts undervalued?”.

 

[Timmy C]

By calling everything other than BTC and ETH as shitcoins we're doing ourselves an injustice. I used the term and laughed at your Shitcoin Olympics because it's both hilarious and interesting how random projects are getting funded. Truly, some of them are shit.

It's rather shallow to think that all will dump 99% - with that view I argue that you might never have been an early adopter in bitcoin or ethereum.

I think the time is right and the marketplace is beginning to showcase more and more use-cases. I'm willing to gamble a small portion to experiment. I'm not saying it comes without risk.

It sounds like you've drank the block chain coolaid of im being honest.


And yes, they will all drop 90% plus.

I'm not saying to to invest but to exercise extreme caution in such a risky market.

 

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[AceVentures]

It sounds like you've drank the block chain coolaid of im being honest.

I'm swimming in that shit

I've genuinely not been around the block long enough so I appreciate how my perspective can be more naive.

My exposure in the Olympics is marginal - that's how I'm managing the risk. Thanks for the heads up, I appreciate the caution and I actually need it. Everybody can seem like a wiz during a bull-run, so it helps to keep things into perspective.

 

[csalvato]

I'm swimming in that shit

I've genuinely not been around the block long enough so I appreciate how my perspective can be more naive.

My exposure in the Olympics is marginal - that's how I'm managing the risk. Thanks for the heads up, I appreciate the caution and I actually need it. Everybody can seem like a wiz during a bull-run, so it helps to keep things into perspective.

Let's reverse the script on this: What coins do you think are not shitcoins?

There are a handful I believe in longer term that will almost certainly take a transient dump once alt season is over, but they have long term potential, regardless.

Which ones are on your list, and why?

Hint: it can't be all of them

 

[csalvato]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1360080805922496513

View: https://twitter.com/APompliano/status/1360080805922496513?s=20

 

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[Timmy C]

I agree 100%.

The big question is: WHEN?

I think we'll have 2 more months on a solid bull run then it's over.

Would love to hear other opinions on this.

I tend to agree.

 

[Timmy C]

Are you talking about altcoins only? Or including BTC in this?

I do think this time is different for BTC. In 2017 we were waiting for institutions to come and they never did. In 2021 the dominoes are falling and it will soon be an avalanche

To be clear I think BTC will see a 70% off correction and eth in the 80% range also.

But unlike shitcoins, Bitcoin has the best-staying power

I will hold my Bitcoin as I believe it will go up over time, and I have no interest in ever selling it.

 

[csalvato]

To be clear I think BTC will see a 70% off correction and eth in the 80% range also.

But unlike shitcoins, Bitcoin has the best-staying power

I will hold my Bitcoin as I believe it will go up over time, and I have no interest in ever selling it.

I really don't think BTC is going back to 15k again (which is a 70% drop from ~50k). Not with this much institutional involvement.

Most companies are just now starting to explore putting it on the balance sheet, and the process takes 4-12 weeks, depending on the company. I think we start to see an avalanche of companies falling into BTC holdings.

Now if you mean we go to 100k then drop to 30k, that's something I could see...

I do agree that ETH correcting down in the 50-80% range is very likely. All the DeFi hype still has major hurdles to true adoption. Mostly in the form of gas fees.

But hey, you never know.

 

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[gryfny]

@Timmy C Where do you go for your shitcoin information? I have thought about trading in like 1 Eth to play around with some shit coins, just for fun essentially.

Try getting involved into some communities. I found this great community via a friend. Via this community I found out about some great new projects (some turned out to be a dud, but some got me good gains up to x25). Check it out here: cryptocopia.com. I don't post up at all there tbh, but I do check it out from time to time to see what those guys are investing in.

 

[Timmy C]

I really don't think BTC is going back to 15k again (which is a 70% drop from ~50k). Not with this much institutional involvement.

Most companies are just now starting to explore putting it on the balance sheet, and the process takes 4-12 weeks, depending on the company. I think we start to see an avalanche of companies falling into BTC holdings.

Now if you mean we go to 100k then drop to 30k, that's something I could see...

I do agree that ETH correcting down in the 50-80% range is very likely. All the DeFi hype still has major hurdles to true adoption. Mostly in the form of gas fees.

But hey, you never know.

Me neither, I don't think now is the top.

But a 70% retrace at minimum for BTC when we enter a bear market is expected.

Anyone disagreeing with this will look silly and I will bookmark their post to show later.

 

[Frinys]

When we're at the shill your favorite shitcoin talk...

PoW has a major flaw that very few talk about. It requires a very high hash power to stay secure. This means that lower market cap pow coins are basically insecure.

It's impossible to secure both the most used PoW coin (bitcoin) and the smaller ones at the same time. In essence, this means that unless a PoW coin is a top 10 pow coin, it's insecure by nature. Just look at Ethereum classic.

Wouldn't a solution to this problem be very valuable?

 

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[Kevin88660]

Me neither, I don't think now is the top.

But a 70% retrace at minimum for BTC when we enter a bear market is expected.

Anyone disagreeing with this will look silly and I will bookmark their post to show later.

The 2018 bear market took a year to happen. I think there is enough time to get out in the bull to bear transition.

I will keep play alt coin (flipping them) because in a bull market this is where the money is. 100 percent downside risk versus 300-500 percent return.

If a black swan event happen such as covid that can bring stock market to its knees, crypto market will be annihilated too. But that is once in a ten years event.

In a bear market I will be fleeing to fiat not to btc. I really dont see the case for btc from a trading pov.

Having a 80 percent downside risk as in improvement for 100 percent downside risk is hardly enticing. Why not speculate on risky projects (with risk management spread over multiple projects) instead.

 

[Timmy C]

I am the biggest bitcoin bull of all time FYI.

Inflation has destroyed the lives of many and bitcoin is the biggest F*ck you to the system ever.

Bitcoin is a fast lane mindset.

 

[Deleted78083]

I changed my mind about crypto.

I think the future of payment is the blockchain, and that the future of money is crypto. The ECB will decide whether they'll create a crypto-Euro in July 2021, Ukraine is building a national crypto-currency and Mastercard will soon welcome crypto payment.

There is no going back now.

I have invested some money in some crypto that I believe are undervalued. While I do believe in cryptocurrency for the future, it doesn't mean that I think the current cryptos we have are sustainable. Quite the opposite. I think governments will have to forbid them once they will create their own central-bank-mined crypto. Or, they will make it impossible to sell them against anything but fiat currency which will have devaluate like crazy by then because it won't be used anymore.

So I am treating the cryptos I have invested in as speculative assets, which I think they are.

Once we'll have government-issued crypto, I'll exchange all of my fiat money for them.

Question: what will happen to the countries that banned cryptocurrencies? There are about a dozen of them or so.

 

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[MTF]

Once we'll have government-issued crypto, I'll exchange all of my fiat money for them.

Government-issued crypto is not crypto.

 

[csalvato]

I changed my mind about crypto.

I think the future of payment is the blockchain, and that the future of money is crypto. The ECB will decide whether they'll create a crypto-Euro in July 2021, Ukraine is building a national crypto-currency and Mastercard will soon welcome crypto payment.

There is no going back now.

I have invested some money in some crypto that I believe are undervalued. While I do believe in cryptocurrency for the future, it doesn't mean that I think the current cryptos we have are sustainable. Quite the opposite. I think governments will have to forbid them once they will create their own central-bank-mined crypto. Or, they will make it impossible to sell them against anything but fiat currency which will have devaluate like crazy by then because it won't be used anymore.

So I am treating the cryptos I have invested in as speculative assets, which I think they are.

Once we'll have government-issued crypto, I'll exchange all of my fiat money for them.

Question: what will happen to the countries that banned cryptocurrencies? There are about a dozen of them or so.

Glad you're coming around. Sounds like you have a bit more research to do, though.

Particularly on the impact government run cryptos would have, and the sustainability of existing coins and tokens.

 

[Kevin88660]

The 2018 bear market took a year to happen. I think there is enough time to get out in the bull to bear transition.

I will keep play alt coin (flipping them) because in a bull market this is where the money is. 100 percent downside risk versus 300-500 percent return.

If a black swan event happen such as covid that can bring stock market to its knees, crypto market will be annihilated too. But that is once in a ten years event.

In a bear market I will be fleeing to fiat not to btc. I really dont see the case for btc from a trading pov.

I changed my mind about crypto.

I think the future of payment is the blockchain, and that the future of money is crypto. The ECB will decide whether they'll create a crypto-Euro in July 2021, Ukraine is building a national crypto-currency and Mastercard will soon welcome crypto payment.

There is no going back now.

I have invested some money in some crypto that I believe are undervalued. While I do believe in cryptocurrency for the future, it doesn't mean that I think the current cryptos we have are sustainable. Quite the opposite. I think governments will have to forbid them once they will create their own central-bank-mined crypto. Or, they will make it impossible to sell them against anything but fiat currency which will have devaluate like crazy by then because it won't be used anymore.

So I am treating the cryptos I have invested in as speculative assets, which I think they are.

Once we'll have government-issued crypto, I'll exchange all of my fiat money for them.

Question: what will happen to the countries that banned cryptocurrencies? There are about a dozen of them or so.

Since we are here for the money I will address on the market first.

There is speculation that this bull market is slower and more sustainable than the last one, as btc market cap gets larger it is harder to grow fast and quickly. But it can be a good thing because it wont face the parabolic rise and subsequent inability to sustain the price, followed by a prolonged bear market of hopelessness.

There is a lot of debate of “which stage of the bull market we are in”. This is the june/sep of 2017....

My advice is study the price history well but dont be too dogmatic about it. History doesn’t repeat the same way is an understatement. The market can always screw you when you get stubborn. I have been hurt badly before in other market insisting “ah this is going to happen this way because historically facing the same circumstances this is always the case.” You never know why you are wrong until quite sometimes after the money losing event had already happened.

I think it is best to be flexible and adjust your views accordingly.

The safest way to play this is to have small position of buy and hold and actively trading larger positions to buy dips and take profit thereafter. You will make far less money than your friends who “ape and hold” but in the event when shit happens, you can get out relatively unhurt even with profit and accumulate to buy and hold at much lower price.


Then I will talk about development and technology.

I don’t see major countries in Europe or North America banning cryptocurrency. The reason is simple. It is like why you never outlaw casinos. If you ban crypto holding and exchanges you are just asking your citizens to park their assets and trade in oversea crypto exchanges and have digital assets served by foreign companies. This is a piece of cake too big to ignore in the future. That’s why you see regulators are rather ambivalent on cryptos. All the countries banning crypto do not have a very significant financial service sector.

It is very difficult to predict what technological development will succeed. Bitcoin by and large remained to be an asset to be speculated. Real uses outside that is extremely limited. Only plausible use now is cross border exchange where it is possible to incur less fee. Ethereum is getting bigger but no one knows if 2.0 upgrade will work and solve the high gas fee issue.

What we know for more or less certain that real applications are slow to develop and the biggest use case of crypto is still speculation —gambling. Gambling is a heavily regulated field and digital currency exchange simply take a cut from it. The same group of hardcore crypto players are also people who play roulette in casino, lottery tickets and sports betting-basically the same customers base.

Look at the best performing altcoins now. Decentralized exchanges governance tokens. Exchanges are the keywords, not decentralized. The best business in crypto is still running exchanges (running casino).

 

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[Fox]

Government run crypto is the funniest bad idea ever.

 

[Deleted78083]

Government run crypto is the funniest bad idea ever.

I have a hard time imagining a world where governments don't control their own money. Crypto, as it exists now, is unsustainable from the point of view of any government. The question is: what will they decide?

@csalvato @MTF @Kevin88660 any trusted resources where I can learn more?

 

[Kevin88660]

I have a hard time imagining a world where governments don't control their own money. Crypto, as it exists now, is unsustainable from the point of view of any government. The question is: what will they decide?

@csalvato @MTF @Kevin88660 any trusted resources where I can learn more?

You are asking about the future and at most what we can do is to have smart guesses.

The hardcore libertarians base of crypto is very small. Most people who own it are in it for the money. If price goes up it is digital gold if price goes down then it is a scam. That sounds childish but that seems to apply for most in the market.

If government wants to have their own version of cryptocurrency as long as people can use it for some real purpose they not going to rebel against it.

The government do not like when people use crypto to circumvent capital control across border, hide their money against tax and creditors, or they have to claim the mess of crypto exchange hacks and people filing police reports on crypto related scams...

But why they are not banning crypto? Because they like it when money comes in from oversea via the crypto route. They like it if they can collect tax from crypto related business such as having one of the largest crypto exchange running in their own country collecting revenue from oversea. It is a an economic segment that can boost tax dollars and employment. Millionaire coming to invest in a crypto start-up with 2.5 million capital injection. Good! A green card for you!
Governments do not want to say no too early to a potentially trillion dollar industry. Countries are always competing against one another.

Bank of China did say they are considering launching crypto backed by RMB but there is no follow up news on that.

 

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[csalvato]

I have a hard time imagining a world where governments don't control their own money. Crypto, as it exists now, is unsustainable from the point of view of any government. The question is: what will they decide?

@csalvato @MTF @Kevin88660 any trusted resources where I can learn more?

A world where Bitcoin is prevalent, valuable and widely used for savings account/corporate treasury holdings doesn't mean that governments won't also have their own money.

Governments have their own money now, and its value is measured against other things - like other currency and gold. Bitcoin is just another one of those things that can be used for comparison.

This page is chock full of terrific info: Bitcoin

Particularly the "Resources" section.

 

[Fox]

I guess at least with crypto they won’t have to keep printing more and more.

They can instead just switch to copy + paste.

 

[csalvato]

I guess at least with crypto they won’t have to keep printing more and more.

They can instead just switch to copy + paste.

Most coins have their "printing" hardcoded into the protocol. For example, there can never be more BTC than 21M. There are newly minted coins until we hit that number.

In another example, Dogecoin has it programmed where there are 5B more coins introduced every year, so the inflation rate will go down over time, approaching 0% as time goes to infinity.

With crypto, usually what you see is what you get, in terms of how the currency can be diluted.

 

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[windchaser]

I love my shitcoins. Small share of my portfolio, but the upside potential is huge if this bullrun persists. Some of them are up 4x just in the past few days.

Maybe they all dump and I lose all of them. Fine. But if my suspicion is correct, that the flood gates to crypto have been opened and there's no turning back, then the services I think are useful will only grow with time. The upside is big enough for me to accept the risk.

I pick a project with a good team and CEO, solid use-cases, and a growing list of partnerships.

I have been there and believe me, no matter how much you love the project and how small a part it is in your portfolio, it is very painful to go through a +90% wipeout (especially after having been more than 4X or even +10X), and no, this time is not different. It will happen and it will be fast.

You dont need to sell everything, there is an intermediate solution, as it is impossible to time the top, you can take partial profits in the way up, and then in the way down, that way you are still exposed to the upside but significantly reducing your risk.

 

[AceVentures]

I have been there and believe me, no matter how much you love the project and how small a part it is in your portfolio, it is very painful to go through a +90% wipeout (especially after having been more than 4X or even +10X), and no, this time is not different. It will happen and it will be fast.

Thanks man I appreciate your input. What I disagree with a little is your statement in bold. I'm not so sure, and it's not any wit or understanding of the crypto markets that are telling me that, but more of how I personally feel about the state of affairs.

Which ones are on your list, and why?

Hint: it can't be all of them

I will keep play alt coin (flipping them) because in a bull market this is where the money is. 100 percent downside risk versus 300-500 percent return.

Having a 80 percent downside risk as in improvement for 100 percent downside risk is hardly enticing. Why not speculate on risky projects (with risk management spread over multiple projects) instead.

^ this. I think the risk profile is interesting.

I started with a fractional share of my portfolio and initially distributed the funds across a basket of coins, mostly DeFi, protocol interoperability software, and a couple of projects around AI. I also see value in certain centralized exchanges - I'm not rooting for them or saying that's the way to go, but I believe for many people they will continue to leverage their services, and their growth is reinvested back into the infrastructure.

The analogy @Kevin88660 made earlier about casinos was good. I see the best performing exchanges continuing to dominate and grow. Not your keys not your coins. But for many folks, they will trust established entities who hire the top security experts in the world. Again, not saying this is for me or should be the route for yall, but I think they play an important part in this adoption stage.

A month in, most did so so, some performed worse than BTC and some have seen 400%+ returns.

I don't tout this as a good strategy or encourage anyone to do this. I've been up substantially over the past few months and I was willing to experiment. I was rewarded this time and have accepted that it could fail tomorrow. But if you're responsible and understand the risk you're willing to accept - don't deny yourself the opportunity to experiment. I'm learning.

 

[csalvato]

Thanks man I appreciate your input. What I disagree with a little is your statement in bold. I'm not so sure, and it's not any wit or understanding of the crypto markets that are telling me that, but more of how I personally feel about the state of affairs.





^ this. I think the risk profile is interesting.

I started with a fractional share of my portfolio and initially distributed the funds across a basket of coins, mostly DeFi, protocol interoperability software, and a couple of projects around AI. I also see value in certain centralized exchanges - I'm not rooting for them or saying that's the way to go, but I believe for many people they will continue to leverage their services, and their growth is reinvested back into the infrastructure.

The analogy @Kevin88660 made earlier about casinos was good. I see the best performing exchanges continuing to dominate and grow. Not your keys not your coins. But for many folks, they will trust established entities who hire the top security experts in the world. Again, not saying this is for me or should be the route for yall, but I think they play an important part in this adoption stage.

A month in, most did so so, some performed worse than BTC and some have seen 400%+ returns.

I don't tout this as a good strategy or encourage anyone to do this. I've been up substantially over the past few months and I was willing to experiment. I was rewarded this time and have accepted that it could fail tomorrow. But if you're responsible and understand the risk you're willing to accept - don't deny yourself the opportunity to experiment. I'm learning.

You won't name any coins by name that you think won't drop 90%?

 

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[AceVentures]

You won't name any coins by name that you think won't drop 90%?

I feel like you're trying to make a point

I won't name any random projects and I certainly won't put an exact likelihood of success on them.

I'm not rooting for any specific project or think something is the next ETH killer or the next BTC or whatever. I'm just saying that I've been experiment within domains I think are interesting. I've reduced my exposure by spreading the investment across multiple projects. Some will likely fail, some might have a chance at becoming useful. Even then, my shitcoins occupy a tiny percentage of my portfolio.

You bet that 90% of them will fail. Sure, have it. I'm still in. if 10% of them stay, that's great. if 0% of them stay, that's also fine.

 

[csalvato]

I feel like you're trying to make a point

I won't name any random projects and I certainly won't put an exact likelihood of success on them.

I'm not rooting for any specific project or think something is the next ETH killer or the next BTC or whatever. I'm just saying that I've been experiment within domains I think are interesting. I've reduced my exposure by spreading the investment across multiple projects. Some will likely fail, some might have a chance at becoming useful. Even then, my shitcoins occupy a tiny percentage of my portfolio.

You bet that 90% of them will fail. Sure, have it. I'm still in. if 10% of them stay, that's great. if 0% of them stay, that's also fine.

Not trying to make a point.

Just trying to see if there are some coins I've been missing that I need to look into.

I was hoping you'd name some that I could look into. It sounds like you don't have that list, though.

It sounds more like you picked a bunch of coins, not truly believing in any one of them, in the hopes one of them goes to the moon.

Nothing is wrong with that.

Your original post just made it sound like you had a firm belief in some/all altcoins to not drop 90% by the time the bears take over.