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Stock Market Trading Rotation System

Anything related to investing, including crypto

ljean

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In May I bought a little at $30 then more at $36. Sold a little at $38. Still have the majority of it though.
 
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ljean

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Another bad actor today. This is how you know its earnings season. This one I bought in May in the $13s.

IMMR.png
 

ljean

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Here's another one that got away. I bought & sold this twice for losses earlier this year.

wmlp.png
 

MJ DeMarco

I followed the science; all I found was money.
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In May I bought a little at $30 then more at $36. Sold a little at $38. Still have the majority of it though.

Not knowing a damn thing about the company, it actually looks like a good entry position would be 23.

But then gain, holy-heck, WTF, -1.62 EPS V .52 Expected? The securities lawyers will be on this like white-on-rice. Now they'll need to deal with a class-action lawsuit.
 
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ljean

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Jan 22, 2017
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Here is my big winner this week, +35%

mnk.png
 

ljean

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Heres my top winner closed out today. Bought this for $1.60 back in May.

sskn.jpg
 

ljean

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No killer trades closed out recently to report. I am in 15% cash as of 10AM today due to the current market action.

SS.jpg
 
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ljean

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Jan 22, 2017
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Got hammered recently. Now in a bit over 20% cash.

SS.jpg
 

ljean

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This is my big winner closed out this week. I bought it a few months ago around $17.

LRN2.png

The past month or so has been disappointing because I am over-weight in energy and the 15%+ drop in crude since Oct 1 has weighed me down. Also, three of my positions had earnings misses with big drops yesterday so I under-performed the big rally.

LRN.png

I lighted up a bit more this week and am in just over 25% cash. If the market continues to rally it will likely leave me behind for a time since my exposure is reduced. That is the price paid when attempting to lessen downside risk.
 

Startup Steve

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Fund managers have very smart business people working with very smart finance people working with very smart data people working with very smart technologists that have lots for working capital.

I've always just used a Vanguard 500 Index Fund and banked my 11%+. YMMV
 

jesseissorude

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Fund managers have very smart business people working with very smart finance people working with very smart data people working with very smart technologists that have lots for working capital.

I've always just used a Vanguard 500 Index Fund and banked my 11%+. YMMV

I hope you're able to bank that next year. We might be in for a bumpy ride.

j/k I like to tease the people who are doing the "right thing". When my girlfriend opened her first account earlier this year, I told her to put it all in a mix that was heavy on index funds.
It's not right for me, but it's right for most people who want to set it and forget it (and also to sleep at night)
 
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ljean

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Jan 22, 2017
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Well i'm pretty much back to even on the year. Lightened up a little more this week and am at about 45% cash in the portfolio.

SS.jpg
 

RahKnee

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@levijean , are you not shorting anything? Most momentum/trend traders I know make their bank on the downside.
 

ljean

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Shorting stocks [profitably] is a difficult proposition for several reasons:

The stock market has an upward bias so you have that working against you.
You have to pay interest & dividends on shorted shares.
Losses are theoretically unlimited while max gain is only 100%.

For these reasons I do not participate on the short side.
 
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Last edited:

ljean

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Jan 22, 2017
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Lightened up a little more this week. Currently sitting on 50% cash.

ss.png
 

ljean

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Jan 22, 2017
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Lightened up a little more this week. Now sitting on over 60% cash.

Untitled.png
 

ljean

Silver Contributor
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Jan 22, 2017
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No notably good trades closed out recently. Got out of a handful of positions today that were going nowhere. Currently sitting on 75% cash.
 

ljean

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Jan 22, 2017
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Finally closed out a big winner today. I bought this for $5.50 a few months ago for a 65% gain.

Untitled.png
 

ljean

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Jan 22, 2017
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Closed this one out today for a 33% gain. Bought it last summer around $13.50. I've slowly been increasing my stock exposure the past few weeks but still mostly in cash.

Untitled.png
 
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ljean

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Jan 22, 2017
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Closed out this one today at a 35% gain. Bought for $19 last summer. Was up around 80% in October but now its time to move on.

VRS.png
 

Kevin88660

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There are many successful long term trend followers who make a living but I believe it is FAR EASIER to make money from short term mean reversion for the following reason.

1)Too many CTA firms are long term trend followers and this diminish returns for such strategies. James Simon sums up in an interview that the kind of beautiful trends you get into the 80s are gone and ever since the 90s they focused on mean reversion only.

2) long term trading is hard because you only realise that the trades do not work out, after a long time. This creates huge opportunity cost for failed long term trend following.

3)Tail risk for well executed mean reversion strategies are exaggerated by black swans lovers.
-short term micro-inefficiencies are abundant and unlikely to go away, even in 2008 a lot of long only stratgies are making money than usual.

-Human discretionary judgement can reduce mean reversion loss easily through simple things like minimizing position size before major news.
 

ljean

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Jan 22, 2017
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Got crushed in this position last week during earnings. Closed today for 35% loss.

bned.png
 
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ljean

Silver Contributor
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Jan 22, 2017
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Closed out one this week for a 30% gain after a few months.

ebr.jpg

Now back to around 50% invested due to market recovery. Splitting the difference between S&P and Russell performance.

port.jpg
 

ljean

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Jan 22, 2017
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Nothing too notable to report this month. Performance has been flat - lagging the S&P due to sitting on mostly cash the past few months. As of today though, back to 85% invested. If there IS a recession around the corner the stock market sure isnt anticipating it as we are now back to all-time highs.
 

ljean

Silver Contributor
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Jan 22, 2017
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Wild ride in this one today. I bought it yesterday at $4.40 and it was up over 100% today at one point.

arci.png
 
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ljean

Silver Contributor
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Jan 22, 2017
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Had a really good week especially considering the broad market action. Closed out three really good trades.

+30% on this one:
sedg.png

+45% on this one:
sbgi.png

And well over 100% on this one:

tait.png
 

MJ DeMarco

I followed the science; all I found was money.
Staff member
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My system simply looks at stocks with the highest price change with a 6-month look back.

So is this the extent of your screening criteria? Just the big performers for the last 6 months? No other technical or fundamental criteria? Min volume? EPS? I'm basically trying to determine how something gets on your radar where you say, "Yea, this is a bet I'll make."

Congrats on the return, the last week hasn't been pretty.
 

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