How BIG is your BET.

[Nathan Douglas]

When I decided to quit the job and put MY time into MY business, I was deciding to place a bet.

No revenue. No customers. No expert knowledge in the industry of my choice. Just a bet, with a supplier in Utah and an empty marketplace. I am pushing my site live in August with no guarantee on success. When this fails and my business model shows error, or my customers show no interest, I won't give up, I will pivot. I will fire and hire with the motivation to retire. I am dumping 10 grand into this business with the chance of success around the same percentage as the interest you are getting in your savings account. Actually, I bet that my success rate is higher than your saving accounts interest rate. Because your savings account is just sitting there, making no bets, not pushing out any products, not forging your ideas into reality. I can tell you that if my business fails, I will learn what went wrong, adjust the pitch and increase the throttle.


Walking out your door and getting in your car is a bet. You are betting your life that you can make it to work or the grocery store without an 18 wheeler slamming into you. Placing your money in a savings account is placing a bet into that bank and the federal government that they can back up your account if they fail. Sleeping in your bed at night is placing a bet that your house has a sturdy roof. What I am learning in life is everything is just a BIG a$$ BET, and whether your morals restrict you to place bets or not, I am sorry to tell you but you are doing it everyday.




Becoming an entrepreneur was the best thing to ever happen to me, and I am positive that it will be the best thing to ever happen to you. Because YOU can place your own bets on your own business. You don't have to have "The Man" make bets that could negatively effect your job.

 

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[Vigilante]

I was talking with my 20 year old son about a business he is considering.

Pointed out the obvious fact. In light of the fact that it's not a "job" with a "boss," the reality is he can earn as much as he decides to. Because... nobody can tell him he can't.

Unlimited.

 

[Deleted20833]

Life is about minimizing risk and leveraging the upside...what's the worst that can really happen if you think about it?

 

[tafy]

Great post Nathan and you progress is amazing, never seen anyone move so fast. Im going to bet 25k soon and i like the odds better then just keep working forever.
Sent from my RM-892_eu_euro1_274 using Tapatalk

 

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[randomnumber314]

My bet was dropping the cushy salary running a small software company to start my own thing. Seemed scary at first, for a couple weeks maybe. Then I realized that everything's easy, if you just shut up and do it. Working for someone else means kicking a can down the road is no big deal. "Meh, I'll call them back tomorrow" is easy unless that phone call is the difference between making it or not.

Now people are coming out of the woodwork to give me money. I am not a rich man, yet, but I'm happily on my way.

 

[Darko Jocic]

It's true that we place bets all the time. I agree. But, what you did there is something I'd call toying with money. Every bet has a chance of success and chance of failure, depending on the individual. The most powerful part of business is the fact that you are able to influence and manage your chances. Be knowledgeable enough, and you don't ever have to fail before the finish line. Running around, investing in a businesses you know will fail, just because you have no idea what else to do with the money doesn't make you rich. No amount of neither knowledge or genius can influence your chances of success that drastically. Please don't do this kind of thing again. "What happens once never needs to be repeated, what happens twice will happen again".

 

[Nathan Douglas]

It's true that we place bets all the time. I agree. But, what you did there is something I'd call toying with money. Every bet has a chance of success and chance of failure, depending on the individual. The most powerful part of business is the fact that you are able to influence and manage your chances. Be knowledgeable enough, and you don't ever have to fail before the finish line. Running around, investing in a businesses you know will fail, just because you have no idea what else to do with the money doesn't make you rich. No amount of neither knowledge or genius can influence your chances of success that drastically. Please don't do this kind of thing again. "What happens once never needs to be repeated, what happens twice will happen again".

I appreciate your personal feedback
However, I did not invest in any ill manner. I am starting a company and the cost associated with this company are cost to get the ball rolling. If you were an INSIDERS, you would be able to read my progress thread and notice the strides I have made with my partner. One of those "strides" is obtaining a contract with a company that will produce and ship the products that are sold on my marketplace. Cost associated with the 10K budget includes airfare, hotels, web development, subscriptions and servers. 10K is the budget I have set for this venture to make this business viable in the consumer 3D printing realm.


No guarantee of success - Means I don't have a crystal ball that tells me if this business will make millions. Assuming that is your definition of "rich".
No revenue, No customers - Means the website is not launched yet. I can't figure out what the customers want until I push the site live and tweak the process. This is not "whoohoo" I just made a website and it will make me rich. This is "Okay, now that the site is launched and I have x amount of designers that have products up for sale on their stores, what are the customers saying about the process from purchase to delivery? What do I need to focus on in order to keep the customer coming back? Do I need to fly out to Utah again and refine the process with the production company? Do I need to integrate an update to the validation software that is used when designers go through the approval process? Does the production company need any additional printability test to ensure maximum quality and less chance of wasting materials?"
These questions are part of the BETA phase when I launch the marketplace.
No expert knowledge in the industry of my choice- I am not an expert in the entire 3D printing industry, and because of this I can not do everything alone. Running my type of business requires the use of commercial 3D printers. I am not a technician in operating one of those machines, so therefore I am no expert in my industry. Would you expect a divorce lawyer to be an expert in Intellectual property?


I respect your opinion on how from the outside, reading my thoughts on placing bets on life would allow your mind to come to the conclusion that I am taking 10k and toying with it. Not the case. Please don't take this response as an insult to your opinion, I just wanted to clear up the misconception.

 

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[randomnumber314]

@Darko Jocic your comments don't make sense:

1. "Be knowledgeable enough, and you don't ever have to fail before the finish line."
2. "No amount of neither knowledge or genius can influence your chances of success that drastically."

 

[Darko Jocic]

@Darko Jocic your comments don't make sense:

1. "Be knowledgeable enough, and you don't ever have to fail before the finish line."
2. "No amount of neither knowledge or genius can influence your chances of success that drastically."

1. It means that, if someone knows pretty much everything about his business, current status, customers, competition, etc. Then, one can take a course of action that evades business related failures.

2. As I originally didn't understand the point the author tried to make, I mistook his uncertain business venture for one of money wasting businesses, I thought that the business was just next to certain failure, hence responding with a sentence connected to the first one, stating that it's impossible to "bail out" the business from failure by the means listed in the first quote.

 

[Deleted21961]

That's right -- everything in this world is a bet, at least to humans with their little minds. For example, although almost all people take gravity for granted, we *don't* know for sure it will work tomorrow. We bet -- though odds are perceived to be very high -- and we live. Entrepreneurship is a great way to discover that life is inherently hazardous and to improve our chances to survive and make a difference!

 

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[Darko Jocic]

I appreciate your personal feedback
However, I did not invest in any ill manner. I am starting a company and the cost associated with this company are cost to get the ball rolling. If you were an INSIDERS, you would be able to read my progress thread and notice the strides I have made with my partner. One of those "strides" is obtaining a contract with a company that will produce and ship the products that are sold on my marketplace. Cost associated with the 10K budget includes airfare, hotels, web development, subscriptions and servers. 10K is the budget I have set for this venture to make this business viable in the consumer 3D printing realm.


No guarantee of success - Means I don't have a crystal ball that tells me if this business will make millions. Assuming that is your definition of "rich".
No revenue, No customers - Means the website is not launched yet. I can't figure out what the customers want until I push the site live and tweak the process. This is not "whoohoo" I just made a website and it will make me rich. This is "Okay, now that the site is launched and I have x amount of designers that have products up for sale on their stores, what are the customers saying about the process from purchase to delivery? What do I need to focus on in order to keep the customer coming back? Do I need to fly out to Utah again and refine the process with the production company? Do I need to integrate an update to the validation software that is used when designers go through the approval process? Does the production company need any additional printability test to ensure maximum quality and less chance of wasting materials?"
These questions are part of the BETA phase when I launch the marketplace.
No expert knowledge in the industry of my choice- I am not an expert in the entire 3D printing industry, and because of this I can not do everything alone. Running my type of business requires the use of commercial 3D printers. I am not a technician in operating one of those machines, so therefore I am no expert in my industry. Would you expect a divorce lawyer to be an expert in Intellectual property?


I respect your opinion on how from the outside, reading my thoughts on placing bets on life would allow your mind to come to the conclusion that I am taking 10k and toying with it. Not the case. Please don't take this response as an insult to your opinion, I just wanted to clear up the misconception.

Now I understand. The way I interpreted your statement, it sounded like a dead end. I'm glad that I was wrong. I have a friend, who spent approximately $120,000 on a businesses in which he worked as an employee. Knowing him, he has no knowledge of business, hr management, etc. He pretty much blew all his money already. I'd like to suggest something. I think it would be beneficial for you if you'd study a little bit about 3d printers in general. Just a brief understanding of how it works could, in my opinion, help you manage your business. Of course, I can't say anything specific, I don't know in which manner you work with 3d printers.

 

[randomnumber314]

@Darko Jocic, why don't you stop handing out advice that is not asked for (especially considering you don't have the context to do so) and answer the OP question.

 

[Darko Jocic]

@Darko Jocic, why don't you stop handing out advice that is not asked for (especially considering you don't have the context to do so) and answer the OP question.

No sane person would reject advice. Also, please understand, no one orders me what to do, unless I have complied to following the orders, for a personal gain. The only thing I can deduce from your post is that you're just a grumpy idiot trying to feed his ego by ordering me to change my behavior and assigning me with tasks you think should be done. Your actions only show me you're far more childish than I am, no matter how much you think that "kids" need to know their place. I am not inferior to you, remember that. I apologize to the other forum members for swearing.

 

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[tafy]

Oh dear

 

[Dark Water]

No amount of neither knowledge or genius can influence your chances of success that drastically. Please don't do this kind of thing again.

Also, please understand, no one orders me what to do, unless I have complied to following the orders, for a personal gain.

What gives you the authority to demand what someone does with $10,000 of their money, yet not be open to merely the advice of others?

And I disagree, a high degree of knowledge and genius, when put to execution, is going to drastically change the outcome.

PS. just because Nathan admits that he is not an industry expert, doesn't mean he is lacking general knowledge about 3d printing that you assume he is.

PSPS. And creating value is about serving and providing for others, not everything is for "personal gain"


What I gained out of this post is that everything in life is a risk, what a lot of people see as "security" can also be a risk, so might as well pull the trigger on something if you have the capital, confidence, and grit to get it done, because not doing so, might be just as risky. so thank you for the the original post, a lot of wisdom in it

 

[timmy]

Great lesson on interpretation of "The Process" . One for my bookmark. Cheers Nathan

 

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[Darko Jocic]

@Choate I'm sure there isn't a badge that gives you permission to demand something from total stranger, just because you believe he/she should. Unless you're a church from the middle ages, or perhaps, a dictator. I didn't mean to demand, only to express my opinion.

I totally agree with you on the subject of influence of knowledge and genius on a process. It is absolutely possible, but, can really such tremendous preparation ever be expected of somebody? You know it can't. It requires a great amount requirement that need to be fulfilled just to make the possibility of something like that happening plausible, and that's far from probable.

I'd guess that creating value is more about creating value, than providing for others. It's more like, creating value is done by providing for others. "Serving" is included in "Providing", as "Serving" generally means "Providing service". The second quote states what I do personally. I guessed that you meant creating value in business terms, as I don't understand completely what would creating value mean in an individual's social behavior.

 

[Andy Black]

Great opening post.

How big is my bet? I stopped paying into a pension years ago, and am betting that I can build a business that will do better for me.

 

[Dark Water]

@Choate I'm sure there isn't a badge that gives you permission to demand something from total stranger, just because you believe he/she should. Unless you're a church from the middle ages, or perhaps, a dictator. I didn't mean to demand, only to express my opinion.

I totally agree with you on the subject of influence of knowledge and genius on a process. It is absolutely possible, but, can really such tremendous preparation ever be expected of somebody? You know it can't. It requires a great amount requirement that need to be fulfilled just to make the possibility of something like that happening plausible, and that's far from probable.

I'd guess that creating value is more about creating value, than providing for others. It's more like, creating value is done by providing for others. "Serving" is included in "Providing", as "Serving" generally means "Providing service". The second quote states what I do personally. I guessed that you meant creating value in business terms, as I don't understand completely what would creating value mean in an individual's social behavior.

You make a good point in that perfect preparation can never be obtained. But with that said, at some point, you have to pull the trigger on an idea because you can't prepare forever. This is why there are feasible analyses conducted, business plans, models, etc, similar to CAD or blueprints for building a building. Sure, the building might collapse before being built, or the rocket might blow up before reaching the atmosphere (crude analogy I know), or the business might fail, but systems are in place to mitigate that risk. And in business, it can be argued those systems are knowledge, genius, preparation, experience, etc.

Sure, you might fail the first time, or the first 100 times. He might fail with 3d printing. But even so, do you think he went in knowing this $10,000 and business idea is going to put him and his family on the streets with no food if he fails?

In 5 years from now, someone who has gathered the knowledge, cultivated the "genius", and failed 100 times has a much better chance of succeeding at this than someone who didn't.

 

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