The Entrepreneur Forum | Startups | Entrepreneurship | Starting a Business | Motivation | Success

What is your decision making process?

Remove ads while supporting the Unscripted philosophy...become an INSIDER.

Valhalla

Bronze Contributor
FASTLANE INSIDER
Read Millionaire Fastlane
I've Read UNSCRIPTED
Speedway Pass
Mar 6, 2019
119
156
148
Coming from a pilot background where decision making forms a large portion of the job, I've found I carry over a lot of the tools I used in that job. Tried and true models such as the OODA (Observe, Orient, Decide, Act) Loop work well but definitely can't cover you for everything, and is less useful with longer term business decisions.

So much of building a company product etc is based around decision making and yet I hear very little about how they're made. Ray Dalio writes about an idea meritocracy and weighted believability which I found really interesting.

What do you do to increase your odds of making "good" decisions?
 

Don't like ads? Remove them while supporting the forum. Subscribe.

S.Y.

Silver Contributor
Read Millionaire Fastlane
Speedway Pass
Oct 4, 2017
253
642
270
Canada
"the quality of our lives is the sum of our decisions plus luck" - Annie Duke

I have many tools to make decisions. It really depends on the context. There are few I use often.

10-10-10
I ask myself three questions:
- how would I feel in 10 mins for now?
- what about in 10 months?
- what about in 10 years?

Consequential/reversible decision matrix
A modify Eisenhower decision matrix with if a decision is consequential on the x axis and if it is reversible on the y axis. Consequential and irreversible decision warrants further thinking. Reversible ones, less so.

Occam Razor
Simpler explanations are more likely to be true than complex one. And so I err for the most part towards simplicity when debating two decisions.

Inversion
A tricky one, kinda a premortem. If I want to achieve x, say losing 5 pounds. Instead of asking "what should I do to lose 5 pounds?", I would ask what are the things that I can do to gain 5 pounds. And then not do them

Uncle point framework (from Skin in The Game)
So for this one is a way to Hedge your downside risk. Say you are making a business decision with an expected net value of 100000$. If one of the scenario can bankrupt your company, even with a positive NPV, it is a bad bet

Second order thinking
Going beyond the immediate results of the decision. Some decisions have a negative payout in the short term but a large positive payout in the long run. Pair well with the previous framework

Bayes thinking
I am forcing myself to think in probability. Instead of a black or white default way of thinking. Struggling with this one a bit

Voila!
 
OP
OP
Valhalla

Valhalla

Bronze Contributor
FASTLANE INSIDER
Read Millionaire Fastlane
I've Read UNSCRIPTED
Speedway Pass
Mar 6, 2019
119
156
148
"the quality of our lives is the sum of our decisions plus luck" - Annie Duke

I have many tools to make decisions. It really depends on the context. There are few I use often.

10-10-10
I ask myself three questions:
- how would I feel in 10 mins for now?
- what about in 10 months?
- what about in 10 years?

Consequential/reversible decision matrix
A modify Eisenhower decision matrix with if a decision is consequential on the x axis and if it is reversible on the y axis. Consequential and irreversible decision warrants further thinking. Reversible ones, less so.

Occam Razor
Simpler explanations are more likely to be true than complex one. And so I err for the most part towards simplicity when debating two decisions.

Inversion
A tricky one, kinda a premortem. If I want to achieve x, say losing 5 pounds. Instead of asking "what should I do to lose 5 pounds?", I would ask what are the things that I can do to gain 5 pounds. And then not do them

Uncle point framework (from Skin in The Game)
So for this one is a way to Hedge your downside risk. Say you are making a business decision with an expected net value of 100000$. If one of the scenario can bankrupt your company, even with a positive NPV, it is a bad bet

Second order thinking
Going beyond the immediate results of the decision. Some decisions have a negative payout in the short term but a large positive payout in the long run. Pair well with the previous framework

Bayes thinking
I am forcing myself to think in probability. Instead of a black or white default way of thinking. Struggling with this one a bit

Voila!
I always find the occams razor model tricky with multiple options when you then have to make another decision about what is the most simple option.

It's a great thought process you have, very systemized and quantitative. Thanks a ton
 

Tossek

Bronze Contributor
Read Millionaire Fastlane
I've Read UNSCRIPTED
May 5, 2019
126
143
129
Germany
I would add these:

Estimated opportunity costs (for equivalent choices)
Which of the options would give lower opportunity costs?

Back-Up Last choice
Can the decision be reverted into the other option if failing occurs? If yes, take this one. Also, this helps to get experience and maybe advancing the decision matrix and fine tune it later again with other options.
 

Create an account or login to comment

You must be a member in order to leave a comment

Create account

Create an account on our community. It's easy!

Log in

Already have an account? Log in here.

Sponsored Offers

  • Sticky
MARKETPLACE Fox' Web School's "Legend" Group Coaching Program 2020
This year has been quite crazy so far, and a lot of people have reached out to ask me if web...
  • Sticky
FEATURED! Introducing... WEALTH EXPO$ED, A Short Story By MJ DeMarco
Got it several weeks ago and have listened to it several times now. I've definitely met both...
  • Sticky
MARKETPLACE You Are One Call Away From Living Your Dream Life - LightHouse’s Accountability Program ⚡
Just got off the phone with @LightHouse. Having just a 45 minute conversation with him has...
  • Sticky
MARKETPLACE Kill Bigger Incubator
@Kak Out of curiosity, what types of businesses are you advising on? (I read this whole thread...
  • Sticky
MARKETPLACE Lex DeVille's - Advanced Freelance Udemy Courses!
Just bought 5 of your Upwork courses. Thanks for making valuable content Lex!
  • Sticky
MARKETPLACE Grow Your Business With a Book (An Unorthodox Marketing Strategy That Built One of the Largest...
Thanks for your offer to look at my book. Here's the link to the squeeze page Buy The Prosperous...



Forum Sponsor

sponsor

Fastlane Insiders

View the forum AD FREE.
Private, unindexed content
Detailed process/execution threads
Monthly conference calls with doers
Ideas needing execution, more!

Join Fastlane Insiders.

Top Bottom