What do you think the impact of self driving cars will be?

[Pete799p]

MJ mentioned in the book that Henry Ford moved to allow workers the two days weekend whereas in the past the only day off was Sunday. Maybe we will see it become the 4 day workweek and a 3 day weekend as the amount of work dries up and the amount of humans continues to increase.

I believe the problem with this is that there will continue to be an increasing shortage of skilled workers for what work is left. The idea being that the people who are going to see the highest levels of job loss due to automation are also likely to lack the skills or aptitude to be good at what little is left.

 

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[Pete799p]

Fascinating topic. Totally agree that at some point there will be a mass extinction of jobs.

People usually draw parallels with what happened as a result of past technology innovations but as anybody who trades the markets know past performance is no indicator of future performance. What we are seeing today has never existed at anytime in history.

We are building machines that can literally learn, leading to the potential for them to become self replicating and even surpassing human potential making our input unnecessary. This has never happened in history. No machine has been able to totally replace humans but what we are creating now actually could. This = massive job elimination.

The other factor is just how ubiquitous this technology will be as well as how fast it is developing. Farm equipment took centuries to evolve to where it is today but a major breakthrough in automation/AI could literally change things over night, or at least at a pace that is much faster then the economy can adapt. This = mass extinction of jobs.

Could be the greatest achievement of humanity having to no longer work but could also spell the end as society as it's forced to reorganize in a way it has never had to do.

How long this will take and what the world inevitably looks like is anybody's guess but I'm buying my two tickets to the Apocalypse and cant wait to see it unfold.

 

[Craig Cherlet]

Even doctors aren't spared...

This Robot Can Complete a 2-Hour Brain Surgery Procedure in Just 2.5 Minutes www.sciencealert.com/this-robot-completed-a-2-hour-brain-surgery-procedure-in-just-2-5-minutes#.WS-QIM4UeEc.link



Sent from my Pixel using Tapatalk

 

[7.62x51]

F*ckin car in front has some crazy neon lights that make the auto driving cameras go crazy and swerve to the right and kill half the highway.

a tree pattern on the side of the highway looks like a road to the cameras and the car swerves into the trees and kills half the highway.

no thanks. ill ride my manual bicycle.

ill let elon musk use his own product for a few years, and then maybe ill cautiously come aboard.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XHIq0MMViZg

 

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[ColbyG]

I love this topic. I'm a huge follower of AI, mixed reality and all this automation thats coming. I do agree that there will be enormous job losses, initially in the unskilled jobs, and followed shortly after in the skilled ones. Myself, going into my final year of civil engineering at uni, think its pretty scary for the future of my field. When it comes down to it, designing a steel beam is following a standard to satisfy the necessary requirements, something an AI could easily do.

However, the argument against this, is that when computers came around, everyone thought they would take everyones jobs, and they kinda did. But now, the highest job growth area (around 30% in USA) was programmers. And back when computers were first around, nobody would've thought that job would exist. My point is that jobs will be created that we don't even know we need yet, because the problems haven't risen yet. But then, could an AI also solve all those problems?

So to stay on topic, you won't need carparks anymore. So there's extra land available for development. I think people will start living further away from their jobs since the commute into work will be quicker (due to more efficiency between cars on the road), and less stressful since you don't need to think about driving (which is exhausting).

I made a bet with my mate last year that his newly born daughter will never drive a car. I think it could be the easiest $5 I'll ever make.

 

[maverick]

Less time spent in traffic jams i.e. more time for leasure (or work ;-)
Kids and elderly will become much more mobile
Less car insurance
Less police and road signs needed

I feel governments will make a play here and provide transportation-as-a-service.

 

[ColbyG]

I feel governments will make a play here and provide transportation-as-a-service.

Agree with everything except this last part. I think a private system would work brilliantly for a car version of public transport. Low barriers to entry, just need to buy a car, and your in the taxi business.

 

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[TonyStark]

I think people tend to forget the amount of free time automatation gives us.

So many parts of our lives are already outsourced because of computers.

Sure these things kill jobs, but that's good because it gives us freedom.

 

[mike24601]

For autonomous cars to go mainstream, it would have to be an all-or-nothing event. I think it will begin with the trucking industry, but I would not want to be the guy in a self-driving car on the road with human driven cars. Computers are incapable of reason, they follow a set of commands or pre-programmed criteria, and can adapt to a certain route over time, but they cannot adapt to other driver's behavior before it happens--only react. Passenger airplanes use a system called TCAS. If two planes converge and the system senses imminent collision, the computer in each airplane will advise an immediate and opposite input to avoid the crash, that is, if BOTH planes have TCAS installed. Otherwise you will get a traffic warning and then you are on your own to find the problem and react. Likewise, unless both cars can talk to each other and respond to situations in a coordinated fashion, you're taking a serious risk going on the road with human drivers around you.

As for the job killing factor, I read somewhere that one of the only jobs to be truly killed off by automation was the Elevator Operator. And yet, while staying at a fancy hotel in NY the other week, I was greeted by an elevator operator to take me up to my floor. I have to admit, it made an already awkward elevator ride more awkward and I didn't care for the experience.

 

[Pete799p]

I think a possible early play could be to create a self driving highway lane like an express lane. Highways will be the easiest to roll out automation and a dedicated lane would ensure all participants have the correct software so everybody is communicating.

Likely outcome would be much faster pace of travel as computer driven cars could better handle high speeds and traffic.

 

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[daru]

Road side restaurants poff? Stopped at one yeasterday and the majority of customers were truck drivers. This in Sweden which may not represent how it works in the US? But thought about this thread as I sat there.

 

[7.62x51]

Computers are incapable of reason, they follow a set of commands or pre-programmed criteria, and can adapt to a certain route over time, but they cannot adapt to other driver's behavior before it happens--only react.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ndeb1pMAsh4


This is not like an airline autopilot. Computers are now powerful enough that we can apply more advanced algorithms (ie neural networks) which let them reason in much the same way as you and I can reason after seeing enough training examples.

I also don't think there will be sudden mass unemployment. The replacement of human drivers will likely be gradual enough that people will have time to switch over to other fields. Re-training for these individuals might be a big opportunity.

 

[maverick]

Will be interesting to see what changes are done to the interior of a car as we know it. Without the need to face forward (i.e. eyes on the road) it will be a lot easier to make full usage of the available space.

 

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[Napoolion]

Will the technology become commoditized as more companies enter this area?

Autonomous transportation means that the cost of driving from point A to B will be dramatically decreased either in terms of time (let the vehicle drive while you do something else) or money (no longer need to pay for a driver).

What type of opportunities could this open up for startups?

I don't think it will be just self driving cars. I think there will be self driving everything: freight ships, planes and a little delivery robots. Don't know when it all happens though.

 

[ArcherCarmic]

Your original question seems to have devolved into a series of doomsday and apocalyptic warnings.
Like every technology there will be pros and cons attached. Both pros and cons can present opportunity.

My direct predictions:
- Elon has recently said that he hopes new buyers can offset the cost of their new cars by allowing them to "run fares" (much like an automated UBER) while they are at work/sleeping/etc. This will reduce overall costs of vehicle purchase, and likely reduce the number of people who need to buy one in the first place. Maybe car detailing for automated cars after so many fares, or before it picks you up?
- The insurance industry will have to adapt to stay alive. People seem to think it will be a critical mass of self-driving cars that will create a tipping point. I think we will first see insurance rates increase for those who choose to drive "the old fashioned way", especially on the highways. This will skew the market when it comes to purchasing decisions. Think about it: how else will the offset the losses? Wish such a mass reduction in accidents people will opt for the lowest liability coverage they can.

My indirect predictions:
- It won't be right away, but faster than people think, there will be a massive amount of time freed up as "commute hours". Watch as smart businesses attempt to fill this time with more work... on your way to work! We will also see companies optimizing the in-car experience for leisure, learning, possibly even sleep later down the road. Video games, movies, advertising.
-Infrastructure! I predict a large % of the people working in these disrupted industries can be largely offset by North America's crumbling roads, highways, bridges, dams, etc. etc. There's no shortage of work here.

Other considerations:
- What are the police/municipalities going to do once their ticketing starts to dwindle? I expect some creative BS to pop up. Some cars have the ability to avoid parking tickets already!

 

[V8Bill]

I think it depends on what speed they're doing when they hit the wall.

Sorry, we'll now take you back to our regular programing.

 

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[fxmm]

The Simple Solution to Traffic

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iHzzSao6ypE


There are a great deal of good points in this thread.

Driverless cars itself:
Conceptually
- Less traffic
- Less accidents (it's AI less, error prone)
- More efficient routes / less CO2 footprint

If you want to talk about opportunities. Like anything to do with IT / IOT / AI or anything that is connected to the "grid" it's Cyber Security.

View: https://youtu.be/MK0SrxBC1xs

 

[LleixG]

A universal basic income seems impossible with our current prices but wouldn't it be possible with the technology we're developing?

Massive automation, lab food, 3D printers, solar energy, AI, etc... this should reduce the cost of living and make a universal basic income viable.

 

[fxmm]

Yeah, we are entering an interesting era right now.

To follow your thoughts @LleixG Some reads on Automation and our future:

An interesting talk by the MD of Daimler Benz a bit mind blowing really
https://forexmillionairetrader.com/automation-economic-workforce/

I do see that we will have a Universal basic income happening, it's a question of when. Some countries already have a sort of similar setup, i use the term similar loosely. As it's basically the govt handing out income to their citizens, however that can only sustain as long their is a economic strength/viability behind it.

A universal basic income seems impossible with our current prices but wouldn't it be possible with the technology we're developing?

Massive automation, lab food, 3D printers, solar energy, AI, etc... this should reduce the cost of living and make a universal basic income viable.

 

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