What do you think the impact of self driving cars will be?

[7.62x51]

Will the technology become commoditized as more companies enter this area?

Autonomous transportation means that the cost of driving from point A to B will be dramatically decreased either in terms of time (let the vehicle drive while you do something else) or money (no longer need to pay for a driver).

What type of opportunities could this open up for startups?

 

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[amp0193]

Autonomous transportation means that the cost of driving from point A to B will be dramatically decreased either in terms of time (let the vehicle drive while you do something else) or money (no longer need to pay for a driver).

Unless you're in a big city, in which case, traffic will become more congested, and it will take more travel time from A to B.

Or so says Elon Musk: The future we're building -- and boring


Although, you could save time, if you have a way to be productive in the vehicle.

 

[JAJT]

Here's one of my favorite little videos on automation:

 

[CycleGuy]

Once the technology becomes proven and more affordable for the normal citizen it's going to be huge.

There's a big hurdle about the fear of autonomous vehicles from people. The fear is strange because people are extremely dangerous. That's why self driving vehicle tech has to be almost perfect. The first death by autonomous car will cause a mass panic and legislators will implement regulations that cause more harm than good as in most knee jerk reactions.

We're going to see several new businesses created. Besides specific sellers and buyers of the vehicles, we're going to see large companies owning and renting fleets out. Many think uber and lyft will move towards self driving cars in the future as well.

The biggest industry that will be turned upside down will be the trucking and logistics companies in this country. Truck drivers make up some of the biggest groups of workers in several states. We're going to see a lot of drivers displaced by autonomous vehicles. I wouldn't be surprised if we didn't see the teamsters union come out in full political force against autonomous trucks.

The only thing I know for sure is the future is coming. It's coming faster than most of us realize. The next 5-10 years are going to be a scary transition for many people across the world.

 

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[JAJT]

The next 5-10 years are going to be a scary transition for many people across the world.

I genuinely think we're on the precipice of an "extinction level event" for the working class.

If you aren't your own boss or a "higher up" at a company in the next few years the future doesn't look terribly bright. Maybe this is hyperbole or being paranoid but it seems to have been getting significantly worse for a while now and if automation takes hold in any real way (which I believe it will / already is) there's going to be a bunch of people without jobs looking around saying "but I did what I was supposed to... what happened?"

 

[MoneyDoc]

I genuinely think we're on the precipice of an "extinction level event" for the working class.

If you aren't your own boss or a "higher up" at a company in the next few years the future doesn't look terribly bright. Maybe this is hyperbole or being paranoid but it seems to have been getting significantly worse for a while now and if automation takes hold in any real way (which I believe it will / already is) there's going to be a bunch of people without jobs looking around saying "but I did what I was supposed to... what happened?"

Even some physician jobs are at stake... especially radiologists; robots/automation can easily take over this specialty.

 

[JAJT]

For sure. I don't think humans will be "ousted" entirely but I think enough people will be effected that it will be a real problem with no great solutions.

Honestly, as much as I hate the idea, I think the only viable solution is a "guaranteed minimum income" program.

If large swaths of the population are out of work with the supply of available jobs being only a fraction of the demand, what other options are there other than mass destitution?

 

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[CycleGuy]

I genuinely think we're on the precipice of an "extinction level event" for the working class.

If you aren't your own boss or a "higher up" at a company in the next few years the future doesn't look terribly bright. Maybe this is hyperbole or being paranoid but it seems to have been getting significantly worse for a while now and if automation takes hold in any real way (which I believe it will / already is) there's going to be a bunch of people without jobs looking around saying "but I did what I was supposed to... what happened?"

I know you're right, I just hate to think about it. The working class is already in horrible shape. Stagnant salaries, no growth for most sectors.
I hate to think about it because it will lead towards a more socialism across the globe. The only reason many entry level workers have not been replaced is because of the cost. In the next ten years when the cost isn't an issue, many working class people will become "obsolete"...

Coming from a working class family, this really hits home to me.

 

[Red]

traffic will become more congested, and it will take more travel time from A to B.

Traffic will become more swift & commute times diminished greatly. Ever been stuck in traffic lag because people don't know how to zipper in/out on a freeway interchange or an entrance ramp? This will be removed entirely, as computers will be communicating with each other & able to respond to the changing needs of those around them while keeping the flow of traffic steady.

The first death by autonomous car will cause a mass panic and legislators will implement regulations that cause more harm than good as in most knee jerk reactions.

It's already happened. But robots on the road kill far fewer people than other human beings so I'm pretty sure things are going to press onward. It doesn't have to be perfect, it just has to be better -and we're already at a point where robots are statistically better than their human counterparts at driving. Eventually, you'll be required to have an autonomous car to access freeways/highways. You can still have your old C10 from the 70's, but you won't be able to drive it on roads with, say, a speed limit above 45mph. I believe this will all happen in my lifetime. I ain't mad about it.

 

[AndrewNC]

Become a lawyer.

Have you or a loved one been a victim of a car crash that was driven by a computer? Call (my) law firm now to get the compensation you deserve.

 

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[JordanK]

MJ mentioned in the book that Henry Ford moved to allow workers the two days weekend whereas in the past the only day off was Sunday. Maybe we will see it become the 4 day workweek and a 3 day weekend as the amount of work dries up and the amount of humans continues to increase.

 

[Longinus]

I genuinely think we're on the precipice of an "extinction level event" for the working class.

They are saying this since the invention of the steam engine.

Only thirty years ago, people (mostly women) were employed as typists who's only job was, indeed, to type. Nowadays everybody can type and that doesn't mean more people are unemployed.

I believe some jobs will disappear, and many industries are automatizing, but somehow there will always be jobs.

 

[JAJT]

but somehow there will always be jobs.

I think that's the part that always gets me. The "it'll figure itself out" argument.

I think this comes down to pessimism but I don't see why there will always have to be jobs. Or why what happened in the past has any bearing on future progression.

The video I posted said it quite eloquently regarding the horses. To paraphrase - there was always jobs for horses regardless of technological advancement throughout history, until one day there wasn't. It sounds strange to say "better technology makes more better jobs for horses" but replace "horses" with "people" and suddenly people think it sounds about right?

I mean, I hope you are right and I don't really worry too much about it but as a thought exercise I find it fascinating. The technological possibilities could very well wipe out huge swaths of existing jobs and I don't see where the replacement for those jobs are coming from. Maybe they'll spring up naturally in ways I can't foresee but if we knock a few million people out of the transportation industry I don't see where they will go. Knock a few million more people out of warehousing and I don't see where they will go. It just seems like the disruption potential far surpasses the replacement potential.

 

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[Longinus]

I've seen the video about the horses, but I think it's a bad comparison. Horses weren't used to do jobs like humans, but rather as means of transportation/power. It's like comparing steam engines with humans. It doesn't make sense.

A good example is the agricultural industry. It evolved (new technologies, better returns, less labor-intensive, etc) substantially in the last 50-60 years. About half of the population was working in that industry only. Luckily we don't have an unemployment of 50%. But, that evolution didn't go as fast as it goes right now.

Like you said, I just think the "robots will takeover all jobs"-hysteria is one of the many pessimistic views of the future. If it doesn't go too fast, I believe the world will evolve.

 

[Omerroz]

Here's one of my favorite little videos on automation:

Wow
Great video
As the world progresses, it becomes more complex
And the problem is that there are people who can't digest the complexity of things because not all people are born equally cognitively.

 

[Van Halen]

Massive. I can name a list as long as my arm with all the jobs that will be made extinct.

 

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[Craig Cherlet]

Will the technology become commoditized as more companies enter this area?

Autonomous transportation means that the cost of driving from point A to B will be dramatically decreased either in terms of time (let the vehicle drive while you do something else) or money (no longer need to pay for a driver).

What type of opportunities could this open up for startups?

It's going to be very disruptive in many ways.

Drivers for hire will be the most hit. Just look at some of these numbers. These are all jobs that can be done by autonomous vehicles today and we are just getting started.

• 17 million Taxi drivers worldwide
• 3.5 million truck drivers in the USA
• 1+ million bus drivers in the US
• 1+ million food delivery drivers

 

[fastbo]

Automation is going to reduce costs and increase standard of living. What is automation essentially? It's cheap labor. If you reduced minimum wage to 20 cents an hour and people HAD to work, what would happen? Cost of goods and services would plummet, and people could buy more.
You forget, automation still requires consumption. You can have an army of machines building cars, flipping burgers, brewing frapps but if nobody's buying, what's the point?
It'll simply mean that costs go down or consumers will get MORE for the same prices.
If there would ever be a reason to implement a free living wage, it would be once automation has propagated through all industries, and only because finally one class of citizens wouldn't be demanding money (i.e. labor/life) from another class. They would be receiving from excesses of automation.
Industrialization as a whole has always been feared but the results have mostly increased our standard of living...in the past the majority of ones labor was used just to provide food on the table.

 

[fastbo]

Working in the trucking or driving industry is like working for Blockbuster Video a decade ago, or for Kodak 2 decades ago... entire industries will be changed, and new ones created, but overall nobody is upset at Netflix for killing Blockbuster

It's going to be very disruptive in many ways.

Drivers for hire will be the most hit. Just look at some of these numbers. These are all jobs that can be done by autonomous vehicles today and we are just getting started.

• 17 million Taxi drivers worldwide
• 3.5 million truck drivers in the USA
• 1+ million bus drivers in the US
• 1+ million food delivery drivers

 

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[luniac]

i still stand by my position that no way in hell am i trusting Image Analysis Algorithms and Experience Databases to handle real world situations with real lives at stake.

at over 10 miles an hour I'd never let go of the steering wheel.

 

[luniac]

If that's your threshold, I hope you're avoiding commercial airliners...

bs, there's 2 human being in the cockpit.
The airliners don't trust 1 human alone, they give him a copilot.

Takeoffs and Landings are also human controlled 100% of the time,
know why? because it involves more variables compared to flying through empty space in the sky.

And im supposed to trust a high speed car ON THE GROUND!?!?

 

[luniac]

F*ckin car in front has some crazy neon lights that make the auto driving cameras go crazy and swerve to the right and kill half the highway.

a tree pattern on the side of the highway looks like a road to the cameras and the car swerves into the trees and kills half the highway.

no thanks. ill ride my manual bicycle.

ill let elon musk use his own product for a few years, and then maybe ill cautiously come aboard.

 

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[luniac]

You do realize that with self-driving cars, there's still a driver in the driver's seat, who -- just like with an airline pilot -- will have the ability to take control of the car when appropriate (at least for the foreseeable future).

And I'm sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but most new Boeing 737s and 777s, as well as most newer Airbus A318/19/20/21 have autoland, which allows them to land pretty much without pilot input. Last I heard, about 5% of commercial flights in these models use autoland, so if you fly a decent amount, chances are that you've landed in a plane without pilot input.

And yes, from a statistical standpoint, you're likely better off trusting a high speed car on autopilot than a high speed car being driven by the average driver. I'm sure you think that you're a better driver than any autopilot software, but the question is whether everyone around you is as well.

true i do have a lot of psycological biases.

I'm also scared of hacks. How will they protect millions of smart cars from getting hacked?

 

[Hyrum]

F*ckin car in front has some crazy neon lights that make the auto driving cameras go crazy and swerve to the right and kill half the highway.

a tree pattern on the side of the highway looks like a road to the cameras and the car swerves into the trees and kills half the highway.

Autonomous vehicles don't use cameras, they use LiDAR or ultrasonics (for the most part). You would have to have very specific equipment to interfere with it. Plus, crazy neon is more likely to cause a crash when a human is driving.

Why would a tree pattern force a car to turn? With GPS and Google Maps, we can already plot out a pretty accurate route. So unless your GPS tells the car to turn onto a road that doesn't exist, and then the proximity detecting sensors on the car simultaneously fail, that scenario can only happen through human error.

The only thing keeping this from happening is politics. The technology is pretty much here and most businesses are salivating to start using it. Being able for your long-haul cargo to be moving 24 hours a day instead of whatever the DoT sets? That's a huge increase in efficiency.

 

[Craig Cherlet]

F*ckin car in front has some crazy neon lights that make the auto driving cameras go crazy and swerve to the right and kill half the highway.

a tree pattern on the side of the highway looks like a road to the cameras and the car swerves into the trees and kills half the highway.

no thanks. ill ride my manual bicycle.

ill let elon musk use his own product for a few years, and then maybe ill cautiously come aboard.

It's not just cameras, it's radar and other sensors. These cars 3d map the environment around them in real time. Much more complex than a camera in the use case you describe.

Sent from my Pixel using Tapatalk

 

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[luniac]

Autonomous vehicles don't use cameras, they use LiDAR or ultrasonics (for the most part). You would have to have very specific equipment to interfere with it. Plus, crazy neon is more likely to cause a crash when a human is driving.

Why would a tree pattern force a car to turn? With GPS and Google Maps, we can already plot out a pretty accurate route. So unless your GPS tells the car to turn onto a road that doesn't exist, and then the proximity detecting sensors on the car simultaneously fail, that scenario can only happen through human error.

The only thing keeping this from happening is politics. The technology is pretty much here and most businesses are salivating to start using it. Being able for your long-haul cargo to be moving 24 hours a day instead of whatever the DoT sets? That's a huge increase in efficiency.

LIDAR or ultrasonics still result in an "image" that is analyzed by algorithms.
GPS can go haywire if something happens to the satellites.
Google Maps can be hacked.

For once im glad politics is taking their sweet time, ha im sure some businesses are itching to increase their profits.

 

[luniac]

It's not just cameras, it's radar and other sensors. These cars 3d map the environment around them in real time. Much more complex than a camera in the use case you describe.

Sent from my Pixel using Tapatalk

3d map does give a lot more data to work with, and also more room for software bugs.

and what about atmospheric interference messing with the 3d map? there's just so many variables that could go wrong.

Lol guess im just an old fart before my time, im just not ready to accept all cars on the road being automated.

 

[Craig Cherlet]

The same arguments can be had for humans. You get a muscle cramp, you get a bug in your eye, you drop a cigarette, you're on your phone, you changing the radio station, your kids are allowed in the backseat in your yelling at them, the sun gets in your eye and the list goes on. I honestly think the computers will be much more competent than 90% of the drivers on the road sooner than you think.

Sent from my Pixel using Tapatalk

 

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[luniac]

The same arguments can be had for humans. You get a muscle cramp, you get a bug in your eye, you drop a cigarette, you're on your phone, you changing the radio station, your kids are allowed in the backseat in your yelling at them, the sun gets in your eye and the list goes on. I honestly think the computers will be much more competent than 90% of the drivers on the road sooner than you think.

Sent from my Pixel using Tapatalk

brings up an interesting question of liability. if a software bug causes 1000 highway deaths? who's taking the blame?

i hope elon musk? lol

 

[Craig Cherlet]

brings up an interesting question of liability. if a software bug causes 1000 highway deaths? who's taking the blame?

i hope elon musk? lol

One of the main advantages with these vehicles is that you have much more data to assess the incident. You know speed, acceleration/deceleration, breaking, and reams of other event data. You have the actual 3D images and video that allows a incident to be replayed to understand who's fault it is. Also, I imagined that most autonomous cars will be in fleets owned by corporations so it is the corporation and their insurance that will be liable in the event of an accident.

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