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HOT TOPIC The Worldwide Covid-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...

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JScott

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The panic is OVER and now we're just waiting for the media and the world to catch up.
I honestly don't know what that means?

Are you saying that our leaders are in agreement that we should be getting back to work, and we're not listening to them? I haven't heard them say that.

Are you saying that the scientists that are advising our leaders are saying that we should be getting back to work, and we're not listening to them? I haven't heard them say that.

I keep hear everyone blame the media, but listening to the government response and those the government have put in place to advise on this, it appears to me that those in charge are also saying that there's still a big risk and we should be staying home for at least the next few weeks.

So who are these people who have decided the panic is over that we're not listening to?
 

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Rivoli

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Here's what I can tell you. People (including people HERE) were predicting 3,000,000 deaths in the USA. There aren't going to be 300,000, or 30,000.

The panic is OVER and now we're just waiting for the media and the world to catch up.
Gavin Newsom (my gov.) said that 56% of California would be infected.

I was really shocked when he said that, because only 0.00005% of China got it and they let it spread for months.

Then I realized why he said it.

So when this is all over, and less than 1% of the country gets infected, he could say “LOOK AT WHAT I PREVENTED! I know the economy is destroyed, but if we didn’t shut it down 250,000 people would have died!!!!”
 

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Regardless, look at the irony...

Brilliant scientist comes out with catastrophic model and it makes headline news worldwide and is used as the basis for shutdowns and pandemic pandemonium

SAME GUY comes out a few weeks later, and in a move that is uncharasteric of his industry, admits a significant error and revises his own previous forecast to non-cataclysmic - :::crickets:::

If HE was part of the basis for the PANIC, HE has to be part of the voice of reason for the solution
Correct on that for sure. The media is not honest in their portrayal of things. You are 100% correct, ample evidence to prove this.

However, I do want to point out the confirmation bias. He said there was a huge death toll coming...some people reject that analysis...then he remodels his data and comes out and says his NEW model shows that things will not be that bad...and those people that take the position this is a nothing burger jump all over it.

What would you feel if he comes out in 3 weeks and says "Dang...I plugged another factor into my model and now 1M will die in London alone".

Lets go back to Wuhan. I know at this point it's inconvenient, but the death toll there was .03% of the populous. And, a significant % of those would have died if they caught the common cold that turned into pneumonia with their pre-existing conditions.

China is NOT a disaster. In fact, China's back to work. You have to talk about WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENED IN CHINA, not what was forecasted, because the forecasts were wrong. NOW, even the guy heralded as the town crier that did the forecasts that based the pandemic hysteria - says he was dramatically wrong.

Does NY need more ventilators? Yes. Does that mean Iowa City, IA should be on lockdown? 0% chance.

Too bad Ravioli was such a sociopath, because I'm starting to think he was right.
I agree with the point that not every place needs the same policies, dense populations are always more at risk for disease spread then rural areas.

The 0.03% you cite, I find problematic, because of the way you derive the #. Death rate for cancer is derived from #dead/#diagnosed, you can of course expand this to the entire population. Which is meaningful because a relatively fixed % of people will develop cancer each year.

The problem I find with your 0.03% is that with an infection (unlike cancer) the death rate is directly proportionate to the # infected - cancer occurrence rates are relatively stable and fixed over time. More infected = more dead. So death is a direct function of # infected, not population size. Any measure that significantly decreased # infected therefore will alter the total # infected.

Why not calculate death rate from jus those hospitalized, then it would be 25%, why not calculate it just from small districts where the infection was rampant, why stop at Wuhan, expand to all of Hubai. Heck, I just calculated the death rate from Corona in all of china as 0.00035%, that's even better.

This is the fundamental problem with statistics. You can try and make any point you want if you change the input parameters.

Let's see where this goes, as I said in a prior post, I believe by 3/31 it will be painfully obvious what is happening/going to happen in NYC. My opinion, which is of course an option and can be wrong, is that this will still be true. The death rate in NYC is increasing not decreasing, to date there is no indication I see that it's going to stop anytime soon. Also note, that NYC has been completely shutdown, so even when it does decrease, how can we say that the shutdown isn't responsible.

We need a sizable city to just let it rip to compare the benefit of quarantine vs no quarentine.

Is it worth it, and the economic impact?? Not sure, that's up for debate obviously, but I think that the answer to that will be dependent on the outcome.
 

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I honestly don't know what that means?

Are you saying that our leaders are in agreement that we should be getting back to work, and we're not listening to them? I haven't heard them say that.

Are you saying that the scientists that are advising our leaders are saying that we should be getting back to work, and we're not listening to them? I haven't heard them say that.

I keep hear everyone blame the media, but listening to the government response and those the government have put in place to advise on this, it appears to me that those in charge are also saying that there's still a big risk and we should be staying home for at least the next few weeks.

So who are these people who have decided the panic is over that we're not listening to?
Jason,

I am of the belief that the back will be broken on the narrative and that the USA will be adjusting back to semi-conservative normalicy around Easter. There isn't going to be a multi-month quarantine. If my suspicion is correct (that I already had this) and that as we learn more, that the narrative was wrong... then the curve will be broken and the severity of the breakout will be contained.

Some leaders, including the President of the United States, are leaning towards that direction. We will know for certain within the next few weeks, definitively.

There's a percentage of the population that WANTS this to be bad. People who make their living off of it, people who traffic in drama, and people who are scared and bought the narrative. One of the chief architects of the fear has just come out and said that he was... wrong.

This is not the first domino to break favorably. I am hopeful of several more in the weeks to come. I don't think this will be what it was initially thought to be.

Italy is a mess, due in part to the contageon spreading in a NYC type of lack of social distancing BEFORE we even knew what was happening. So there will be pockets where trauma is inevitable.

However, what is happening in NYC is not likely what is happening in Omaha, Nebraska. We can isolate and help the hot spots without pandemonium happening where there is no outbreak. This can and will be (and most likely already is en route to being) contained vs. contageon.
 

Rivoli

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Jason,

I am of the belief that the back will be broken on the narrative and that the USA will be adjusting back to semi-conservative normalicy around Easter. There isn't going to be a multi-month quarantine. If my suspicion is correct (that I already had this) and that as we learn more, that the narrative was wrong... then the curve will be broken and the severity of the breakout will be contained.

Some leaders, including the President of the United States, are leaning towards that direction. We will know for certain within the next few weeks, definitively.

There's a percentage of the population that WANTS this to be bad. People who make their living off of it, people who traffic in drama, and people who are scared and bought the narrative. One of the chief architects of the fear has just come out and said that he was... wrong.

This is not the first domino to break favorably. I am hopeful of several more in the weeks to come. I don't think this will be what it was initially thought to be.

Italy is a mess, due in part to the contageon spreading in a NYC type of lack of social distancing BEFORE we even knew what was happening. So there will be pockets where trauma is inevitable.

However, what is happening in NYC is not likely what is happening in Omaha, Nebraska. We can isolate and help the hot spots without pandemonium happening where there is no outbreak. This can and will be (and most likely already is en route to being) contained vs. contageon.
100% agree.

I understand why China shut down like it did. SARS left a huge scar on China‘s psyche. They didn’t have time to figure out how serious this virus was. If there was a 1% chance it was SARS again, they couldn’t risk it. They had to shut down.

That set the reaction in the world, the business community and the governments of the worlds mind. That + faulty death reporting in Italy ( less than 1,000 people have actually died of the virus in Italy) compounded this.


If this virus started in the US, it would have been a completely different story.
 

.B.

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Lets go back to Wuhan. I know at this point it's inconvenient, but the death toll there was .03% of the populous. And, a significant % of those would have died if they caught the common cold that turned into pneumonia with their pre-existing conditions.

China is NOT a disaster. In fact, China's back to work. You have to talk about WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENED IN CHINA, not what was forecasted, because the forecasts were wrong. NOW, even the guy heralded as the town crier that did the forecasts that based the pandemic hysteria - says he was dramatically wrong.

Does NY need more ventilators? Yes. Does that mean Iowa City, IA should be on lockdown? 0% chance.

Too bad Ravioli was such a sociopath, because I'm starting to think he was right.
If the Chinese government could see first-hand that it is a nothing burger, they would have seen it before the end of February.

And if indeed it is a nothing burger, then why did the Chinese government decide to keep the lockdown for 2 months and then plan to remove it progressively despite the economic cost?

Just wondering.

"The lockdown in Wuhan, the Chinese city where the global coronavirus outbreak began, will be partially lifted on 8 April, officials say."
source: Wuhan to ease lockdown as world battles virus
 

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Some leaders, including the President of the United States, are leaning towards that direction. We will know for certain within the next few weeks, definitively.
But you are already making definitive statements without knowing the outcome.

You also seem to be basing your beliefs on the assumption that you personally have already been infected with COVID-19 based on your severe illness in February. While that is possible the testing has shown a high rate of sick people tested negative for COVID-19, meaning they were almost certainly sick with something else. That really sucks for those people because they thought "Oh, maybe I'll be immune after this!" and then they find out they haven't even been infected yet.

Potentially, you just had a severe non-flu illness that also wasn't COVID-19. So to make any assumption one way or the other doesn't make sense when you don't have an anti-body test available to confirm your belief. Other people who also believe that they already were infected cannot confirm their beliefs without an anti-body test either.

I hope that there will be a conclusive anti-body test to determine who and how many have been infected without showing symptoms, but until then, I am not going to make any assumptions and I'm certainly not going to form any definitive beliefs without evidence.
 

msufan

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I think part of what makes the people on this forum attracted to Fastlane thinking is that we tend to be a bit contrary. When the rest of the world zigs, we zag -- that sort of thing. So we see on this forum a disproportionate amount of distrust in authority figures and the claims of media members, politicians, and experts. And that way of thinking has served us all well in the past; it's what allows us to create opportunities that others don't see.

I am hopeful that Vigilante is right -- that we have massively, overwhelmingly underreported the numbers of people infected with COVID-19. I mean, the literal best-case scenario would be that everyone in the world already had it and just didn't know it.

I think that's overly optimistic, though.
 

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LightningHelix

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100% agree.

I understand why China shut down like it did. SARS left a huge scar on China‘s psyche. They didn’t have time to figure out how serious this virus was. If there was a 1% chance it was SARS again, they couldn’t risk it. They had to shut down.

That set the reaction in the world, the business community and the governments of the worlds mind. That + faulty death reporting in Italy ( less than 1,000 people have actually died of the virus in Italy) compounded this.


If this virus started in the US, it would have been a completely different story.
Faulty death reporting, on what basis?

Right now, the reported death is 8215, that is a decrepancy of more than 7215, why would they fake reporting deaths on this scale?
 

Rivoli

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Damn, I didn't know you were doing autopsies in Italy, mate.
I’m not. The Institute of Health in Italy is.


“On re-evaluation by the National Institute of Health, only 12 per cent of death certificates have shown a direct causality from coronavirus, while 88 per cent of patients who have died have at least one pre-morbidity - many had two or three,” he says.”
 

Rivoli

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Faulty death reporting, on what basis?

Right now, the reported death is 8215, that is a decrepancy of more than 7215, why would they fake reporting deaths on this scale?
They aren’t faking it. It’s just not an apples to apples comparison. See the link I just reported.

99% of deaths reported as due to COVID in Italy have one two or even three pre-morbidities.
<—-link to study

Only 12% of reported deaths are actually primarily caused by COVID - see the source I just posted
 

Vigilante

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But you are already making definitive statements without knowing the outcome.

You also seem to be basing your beliefs on the assumption that you personally have already been infected with COVID-19 based on your severe illness in February. While that is possible the testing has shown a high rate of sick people tested negative for COVID-19, meaning they were almost certainly sick with something else. That really sucks for those people because they thought "Oh, maybe I'll be immune after this!" and then they find out they haven't even been infected yet.

Potentially, you just had a severe non-flu illness that also wasn't COVID-19. So to make any assumption one way or the other doesn't make sense when you don't have an anti-body test available to confirm your belief. Other people who also believe that they already were infected cannot confirm their beliefs without an anti-body test either.

I hope that there will be a conclusive anti-body test to determine who and how many have been infected without showing symptoms, but until then, I am not going to make any assumptions and I'm certainly not going to form any definitive beliefs without evidence.
So the only assumptions that one can make are ones that match the current narratives? There are two distinct schools of thought here, and then a mushy middle. It's OK to have an opinion, one way or another. There are 90 pages of data here from which one can draw conclusions. I'm not going to become an apologist for strengthening a position and moving out of the mushy middle. Data is breaking favorably towards the crisis being overblown, and the cure being more harmful than the virus.
 
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Vigilante

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I think part of what makes the people on this forum attracted to Fastlane thinking is that we tend to be a bit contrary. When the rest of the world zigs, we zag -- that sort of thing. So we see on this forum a disproportionate amount of distrust in authority figures and the claims of media members, politicians, and experts. And that way of thinking has served us all well in the past; it's what allows us to create opportunities that others don't see.

I am hopeful that Vigilante is right -- that we have massively, overwhelmingly underreported the numbers of people infected with COVID-19. I mean, the literal best-case scenario would be that everyone in the world already had it and just didn't know it.

I think that's overly optimistic, though.
Fair enough.
 

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One thing I find hard to comprehend is that some people want this outcome to be as bad as possible. Even though that won't happen, that's the vibe some people give off. Could it be because they want to continue deferring mortgage payments? Getting free money from the government? Not paying bills? I don't know.

Italy's numbers "seem" bad. That's the keyword. They SEEM bad.

Mortality rate is number dead/total number of reported patients.

This is heavily biased depending on the number of tests you do and who you test. If we were to choose a country to set the mortality rate standard it would be South Korea and they are at 0.9%. However, the total number of reported patients is more like DOUBLE of what was reported due to people being infected without any symptoms whatsoever. In that case, mortality rate is 0.45%.
 

GIlman

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Faulty death reporting, on what basis?

Right now, the reported death is 8215, that is a decrepancy of more than 7215, why would they fake reporting deaths on this scale?
Because @Rivoli is intent on making absurd arguments. He is saying if anyone has any medical condition and dies with corona virus pneumonia we should blame the medical condition not the pneumonia. Let’s ignore the fact that they would have lived years and decades had they not gotten pneumonia.

But I can one up him, I can out do his absurdity. The death rate of covid is 0%, everyone’s that going to die was bound to die eventually already. Beat that @Rivoli, I came up with an even better statistic than you.

@GIlman drops mic
 

.B.

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I see what you're saying, but can we believe the Chinese government? Their numbers don't line up with other evidence, such as the massive amount of bodies that were being cremated, the millions of discontinued cell phone accounts, and the continued the empty streets.

And skipping China for a moment, there's Italy. They're about to pass China in terms of the number of people infected. To me, this seems to suggest China was seriously underreporting their numbers. I've also seen reports that China has made of show of closing their hospitals, only to shuffle the activity to the suburbs -- more as a public relations move than as actual progress.

And, in the best of times, China doesn't have a terrific reputation for honesty and transparency. Call me cynical, but I'm not buying their happy talk.
At least we are more likely to get the real numbers from Italy when this is all over.

But by then we will be in the middle of it (other European countries that didn't put proper preventive measures in place, the US,...)

Italy was "only" at 2.500 deaths a week ago (they were at 800 deaths the week before)

now, they got another 5.500 deaths in this last week.

And on a side note, we know that those numbers are only the reported confirmed deaths:

2 weeks ago I saw videos pass of doctors in Italy saying they had to refuse 5 people out of 6 who were coming to the hospital with COVID19 symptoms.

If it's true. And assuming that they accepted those who had the best chances of survival (that seems to be the procedure in this situation),
then the question is:
Is any of the overwhelmed doctors taking the time to call the people they sent home to see if they are still alive fighting the virus on their own? If not, you can +/- x5 the reported death toll

Just random thoughts.

This being said, I really hope that @Vigilante is right.
 

Rivoli

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Because @Rivoli is intent on making absurd arguments. He is saying if anyone has any medical condition and dies with corona virus pneumonia we should blame the medical condition not the pneumonia. Let’s ignore the fact that they would have lived years and decades had they not gotten pneumonia.

But I can one up him, I can out do his absurdity. The death rate of covid is 0%, everyone’s that going to die was bound to die eventually already. Beat that @Rivoli, I came up with an even better statistic than you.

@GIlman drops mic
I’m not saying that. I posted word for word the Institute of Health in Italy’s statement. They are absurd?

If someone has heart disease from smoking, eating unhealthy, and recently had a heart attack, gets sick from Covid, and then dies. What killed him? The Heart Disease Or the flu?
 

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So you go on record. We're at 1,000 deaths in the USA. Do you still think there will be 3,000,000 (as per the predictions that created the SHELTER IN PLACE hysteria)? Or 2,000,000? Or 1,000,000? Or 100,000?

What will happen is the message will change to "see, we flattened the curve" but it now is appearing, based on the guy that AUTHORED THE CURVE, that the forecasted curve itself was incorrect.

Meanwhile, I have a lot of canned spam to consume.
I have no idea how many deaths there will be, but I doubt the worse is over. I hope I am wrong.

I like to look at data and then think of all the possible outcomes based on it. That's pretty much how I conduct business, life, etc...

I will tell you what I did. In February, I sold 90% of my stocks. I also, ordered many more supplies for my business from USA suppliers (because they were getting them from China). I also bought food, toilet paper, ammo, etc... All before things were hoarded.

In hindsight, I get upset that I didn't commit all the way and sell 100% of my stocks, I didn't short the market. I did not purchase masks or sanitizer.

I did predict (although I didn't tell anyone except my friends and family) that many things would get worse and be really affected by the virus. In hindsight it seems obvious that the NBA season would get cancelled. It seems obvious that March Madness wasn't going to happen. I kick myself because I wonder how I missed that with the given data.

For the NBA, my thought was that if one player got the virus, he couldn't play. If a few players on a team got it, they would be forced to forfeit. Then of course, they would complain that the season wasn't fair. That was the extent of my thinking.

It didn't occur to me that if one NBA player got it, the whole team would be quarantined. I didn't take the next logical jump to think, wait that would mean that any team they played in the last week would also have to be quarantined. Hence, the domino effect leading to the season being cancelled.

So to answer your question Dave, I look at this data from Italy and Spain. I look at what measures China took and how their "curve" went. I look at how the American public is acting and treating this virus. I don't see anything in the data that suggests that this is going to go well for us. Please point me to any positive data about our situation. I only go by data, not by faith or opinions or hope.
 

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I’m not saying that. I posted word for word the Institute of Health in Italy’s statement. They are absurd?

If someone has heart disease from smoking, eating unhealthy, and recently had a heart attack, gets sick from Covid, and then dies. What killed him? The Heart Disease Or the flu?
No as a matter of fact you did not post word for word. Here is a direct copy and paste from the article of their conclusions.

“On re-evaluation by the National Institute of Health, only 12 per cent of death certificates have shown a direct causality from coronavirus, while 88 per cent of patients who have died have at least one pre-morbidity - many had two or three,” he says.

This does not mean that Covid-19 did not contribute to a patient's death, rather it demonstrates that Italy's fatality toll has surged as a large proportion of patients have underlying health conditions.

What they are saying is very clear. What you have stated is a profoundly false and misleading characterization of this article. You read the green line above, quit reading, then made an absurd extrapolation of this statement that is not accurate or true. Then completely ignored the bold part of the quote above.

Direct cause of death means the lungs failing and person dying, ONLY because the lungs failed. However, the reason people with other illnesses dying (comorbidies) is because they can be pushed into heart failure, kidney failure, liver failure, etc due to the pneumonia. If you are not completely healthy something like severe pneumonia can push you over the edge faster. Had these people not gotten covid pneumonia they would have lived years or decades longer just fine, just with their existing medical conditions. So yes, from a medical cause of death standpoint, someone with preexisting heart disease may die because their heart fails. That does not mean that the pneumonia did not put stress on their weak heart to fail.
 
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I have no idea how many deaths there will be, but I doubt the worse is over. I hope I am wrong.

I like to look at data and then think of all the possible outcomes based on it. That's pretty much how I conduct business, life, etc...

I will tell you what I did. In February, I sold 90% of my stocks. I also, ordered many more supplies for my business from USA suppliers (because they were getting them from China). I also bought food, toilet paper, ammo, etc... All before things were hoarded.

In hindsight, I get upset that I didn't commit all the way and sell 100% of my stocks, I didn't short the market. I did not purchase masks or sanitizer.

I did predict (although I didn't tell anyone except my friends and family) that many things would get worse and be really affected by the virus. In hindsight it seems obvious that the NBA season would get cancelled. It seems obvious that March Madness wasn't going to happen. I kick myself because I wonder how I missed that with the given data.

For the NBA, my thought was that if one player got the virus, he couldn't play. If a few players on a team got it, they would be forced to forfeit. Then of course, they would complain that the season wasn't fair. That was the extent of my thinking.

It didn't occur to me that if one NBA player got it, the whole team would be quarantined. I didn't take the next logical jump to think, wait that would mean that any team they played in the last week would also have to be quarantined. Hence, the domino effect leading to the season being cancelled.

So to answer your question Dave, I look at this data from Italy and Spain. I look at what measures China took and how their "curve" went. I look at how the American public is acting and treating this virus. I don't see anything in the data that suggests that this is going to go well for us. Please point me to any positive data about our situation. I only go by data, not by faith or opinions or hope.
Don’t misunderstand. I still agree that it is going to accelerate. I’m just listening to the experts that predicted the original curve state that based on current data it’s not going to be as bad as they thought it was going to be. Deaths are still going to increase before they decrease. It’s just not going to become Armageddon. There will be hot spots in the United States of calamity but those will be Isolated, contained, and managed.
 

Rivoli

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I have no idea how many deaths there will be, but I doubt the worse is over. I hope I am wrong.

I like to look at data and then think of all the possible outcomes based on it. That's pretty much how I conduct business, life, etc...

I will tell you what I did. In February, I sold 90% of my stocks. I also, ordered many more supplies for my business from USA suppliers (because they were getting them from China). I also bought food, toilet paper, ammo, etc... All before things were hoarded.

In hindsight, I get upset that I didn't commit all the way and sell 100% of my stocks, I didn't short the market. I did not purchase masks or sanitizer.

I did predict (although I didn't tell anyone except my friends and family) that many things would get worse and be really affected by the virus. In hindsight it seems obvious that the NBA season would get cancelled. It seems obvious that March Madness wasn't going to happen. I kick myself because I wonder how I missed that with the given data.

For the NBA, my thought was that if one player got the virus, he couldn't play. If a few players on a team got it, they would be forced to forfeit. Then of course, they would complain that the season wasn't fair. That was the extent of my thinking.

It didn't occur to me that if one NBA player got it, the whole team would be quarantined. I didn't take the next logical jump to think, wait that would mean that any team they played in the last week would also have to be quarantined. Hence, the domino effect leading to the season being cancelled.

So to answer your question Dave, I look at this data from Italy and Spain. I look at what measures China took and how their "curve" went. I look at how the American public is acting and treating this virus. I don't see anything in the data that suggests that this is going to go well for us. Please point me to any positive data about our situation. I only go by data, not by faith or opinions or hope.
Did you look at South Korea too? What about Taiwan? Singapore? Did you look at how deaths are reported?

Finally, did you ever think, what would happened if every influenza death in the 2017-2018 outbreak/pandemic was reported endlessly like we are reporting Covid?

We know that in hindsight we got through it fine, and doing nothing was the write thing. Viruses burn themselves out. No lock down, no jobs lost. We did almost nothing during that outbreak. 900,000 people were hospitalized. 80,000 people died.

If every one of those 80,000 deaths were reported like COVID is. If every uptick in hospital demand was noted, we would have had the same hysteria right now, even though both viruses are both just about as deadly.
 

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