The *New* Endangered Species... Your Job.

[MJ DeMarco]

Very interesting argument and why entrepreneurship should be given serious thought.

Unemployable humans of tomorrow will be like unemployable horses of yesteryear.

Don't pass it over cuz it's 15 minutes, worth the watch.

 

Dislike ads? Remove them and support the forum: Subscribe to Fastlane Insiders.

[MJ DeMarco]

People have been saying that humans are going to lose their job to automation for decades and it never happens. Just remember, for every job that is "replaced" by automation, a new job is created to implement that automation by someone needed to service, design, manufacture, and monitor the automation.

did you watch the vid? That was my default idea as well. However the exchange isn't quite so even. For example, you could probably replace all the fast food workers at 10 McDonalds and need only 1 or 2 techs to circulate from location to location to service them all. So for every 50 workers displaced, 2 new workers are created in tech.

 

Dislike ads? Remove them and support the forum: Subscribe to Fastlane Insiders.

[brandonrush]

People have been saying that humans are going to lose their job to automation for decades and it never happens. Just remember, for every job that is "replaced" by automation, a new job is created to implement that automation by someone needed to service, design, manufacture, and monitor the automation.

 

Dislike ads? Remove them and support the forum: Subscribe to Fastlane Insiders.

[throttleforward]

I'd expect a lot more corruption. Economic systems don't function at maximum efficiency due in large part to things that are uniquely human - namely greed, a need for power, etc.
The tax code is a good example. What's the most efficient tax code for our economy? Probably a simple one that fits on a sheet or two of paper. That's great right? Companies can direct all that capital tied up in tax compliance/avoidance and payment to more productive activities, government can shrink, etc.
But by doing that, you've done two huge things to those pesky humans that run the system: completely destroyed the infrastructure built on interpreting and complying with the tax code (accountants, lawyers, lobbyists, schools, etc) - you've just fired 10 million people/voters (actually you probably made them nearly unemployable, as they were so specialized to begin with). And, you've removed one of the remaining areas of leverage and favor peddling that power hungry, reelection-seeking politicians have (carving out loopholes in the tax code in exchange for campaign donations).
So what happens - do we get an efficient tax code, or do we grow the tax code every year? No surprise, the humans tend to vote for their continued survival.
Another example that the video touches on is the driverless car. We have it right now, today. So why haven't transport companies started using them? Regulatory and legal impediments. Will we have them? Yes, but it will be unnecessarily delayed, creating market inefficiencies.
It will be a fascinating future - I have no idea what the world my kids will inherit will look like. The only thing I know is that where there are market inefficiencies, there will be entrepreneurship opportunities to exploit.

 

[RHL]

a new job is created to implement that automation by someone needed to service, design, manufacture, and monitor the automation.

No. As the video perfectly showed, 6 cashiers can be replaced with 6 computers. Multiple chains have one service person on call for all of them. So maybe 12 minimum wage jobs (2 8-hour shifts) are replaced by one $65,000/yr job, but the company still nets six figures on the decline in workforce.

The bottom line is that people should be really terrified of this. Specialized fields like medicine, auto repair, artistry, etc that have billions of variables and require great improvisation and intuition and require incredible versatility (lace a boil, take a temperature, and test reflexes) are going to be the last to fall, but ultimately, barring a cataclysmic war that sets everything back triggered by unemployment or overpopulation, the new economy is probably going to look like a modern house.

In 1800, an estate typically had dozens of members: Mom and Dad, 7 children or so, and maybe 5-15 servants or slaves. Today, the average household in the first world has two parents, or maybe one, 1-3 children, and a host of machine slaves that keep it cool, cook food, preserve food, send and receive mail, wash and dry, etc. etc. etc.

The final form of the robot economy will be like that, if it is to stabilize. A small subset of a few hundred million value creators making value for each-other using technology or, in rare instances, their own un-duplicatable skills, will comprise the totality of the species. The problem is, then, what happens to the 6+ billion or so who the new economy and new way of life will not sustain? China has showed us what happens when you try to get your workforce to compete with machine labor-Working 14 hours for two dollars, with no benefits, in hellish conditions, and living in corporation-owned apartments. Scary stuff.

This video (with slightly better narration, sad to say) should be required viewing for High School freshmen. I will eat my wallet with a knife and fork if McDonald's and Burger King restaurants have more than 1-2 full time employees PER LOCATION by the time I turn 60.

 

[tafy]

This is a good thing lets remember, nobody wants to be the operator on that busy toll booth for 8 hours a day or driving a lorry around for forty years.

What should be happening is limiting the population growth and maybe a gradual reduction of the population via a one child policy like china. getting rid of shit jobs is great!

 

[MikeC]

This is pretty crazy. Just thinking about the implications.

Watching this, I don't even think entrepreneurs are "safe". Entrepreneurs may outlast people working in jobs, but the point is pretty clear. Robots are not only becoming versatile at accomplishing repetitive tasks, they're also becoming creative.

Basically... if a robot can write a melody, why can't a robot solve a need in a market?

Just think of how fast humans saturate a market already. Robots will be able to identify needs and solve them incredibly efficiently. They can then create the product and implement it. They can design the website and write the copy, and split test it to absolute perfection.

This movie doesn't just make it seem like some humans will become "unemployable", but that ALL humans will go the way of the horse. Obsolete models.

As mentioned in the video, the human mind is a computer. Once a computer surpasses the human mind, it makes sense that all tasks currently done by humans can be done better by a computer.

The one thing that robots are missing is consciousness. A robot isn't aware of itself.

Also, robot's never suffer. That's the whole point of being a robot. But suffering is what leads to real art. I just listened to a bunch of music written by robots. It's sublime, beautiful stuff – music that I could drift off to.

But what's missing is the STORY. It's pure, beautiful sound. But there's nothing else to it. Listen to Beethoven's Symphony No. 3, and hear the work of a human who made his entire living off of composing music, who just found out he was GOING DEAF. Before he wrote that symphony, he seriously contemplated suicide. He was afraid to leave his house, because he couldn't hear what people were saying, and he didn't want to reveal the fact that he was a composer going deaf.

Then he overcomes it, dedicates himself to writing better music than ever before, and writes his first truly great symphony (he'd write six more). You can hear EVERYTHING in that symphony. It's not just beautiful music... it's HUMAN music.

Robots will never be able to accomplish something like that. A robot CAN create beauty, but not HUMAN beauty.

The really fascinating thing will be to see if or when a robot achieves conscious awareness. Will there be a point when a robot is so intelligent and so capable of improving, it becomes consciously aware? Or will it simply get more and more "computing" power, but never actually attain consciousness?

Time will tell!

 

Dislike ads? Remove them and support the forum: Subscribe to Fastlane Insiders.

[Bouncing Soul]

This is a huge moral dilemma I guess as well. We are choosing to create less jobs so what will we encourage in way of new industries to make up for this? ( GMO/ anti population stuff- doesn't count! )

Do you want to live in a world full of robots and everything being automated as to isolate and remove the human equation?

This change is not a choice. It's a fact. It's an inevitability. The Luddites will never, ever win in the long haul. If we try to force the retention of "living wage jobs", other countries will outcompete us. And eventually attack us with their robots and take our shit.

Employers are increasingly powerful, not less so. What is actually happening is "Careers" are getting shorter, and dollar-based consumption in the post-industrial nations is moderating.

It's an extremely dangerous sentiment, but I think this time is so different from the first industrial revolution that we cannot use it as a model. Industrial factories and battlefields needed more humans than they could get. We remade our educational systems and marketing systems to get people to agree to work in a factory 40hrs/wk, take orders well enough to run machines on the battlefield and repeatedly climb out of trenches to charge machine guns for no damn good reason at all, and modern marketing arose to teach people how to consume so much stuff they had to work, no matter how lousy or dehumanizing those hours were.

Youth today, care little about cars, they are purchasing so few Detroit is getting nervous. They have been trained to consume free products, software based networks and media is pretty much available in any kind in any amount for only the cost of a smartphone; people have proven to demand these beyond anything. Smartphone and gaming console demand did not slow down in 2009 like everything else, they grew. Legal drugs are also increasingly available and consumed, including the Soma of BNW. These are cheap, and getting cheaper, financial, legal and social/reputational costs all . This is lucky, because we also are running up against resource limitations as the democratization of value through computers brings up people around the world. We are not going to be able to dangle Mustangs and ever bigger houses in front of 10billion people as motivation to go to work and keep from causing trouble. Even within the US we seem to have run out of the ability to do it this way. We eat so much it kills us, we live in houses so big we text message each other at home rather than interact, we worship brands, in our stuff and educations, and we need 3 car garages, along with a mini-storage, to secure all our unused stuff. We grew these appetites to the point the majority has to go in to massive debt to support the lifestyle.

We are headed to a new place, and the pace of change is unprecedented save for natural disasters.

 

[DeletedUser394]

I'm looking forward to leading my robot army into battle.

 

[MJ DeMarco]

Very interesting time we are living in.

If you ask me, I think the producers to consumer ratio is about to get realllllllly bad. It's bad now!

 

Dislike ads? Remove them and support the forum: Subscribe to Fastlane Insiders.

[pickeringmt]

We will know that we have reached this point when the ONLY commercial on TV is for the ITT Technical Institute Certificate for Robot Maintenance Technician program.

 

Dislike ads? Remove them and support the forum: Subscribe to Fastlane Insiders.

[Yeezy]

In Grandmas backyard with no access but a 30 inch gate on the side of the house?

There are robots on mars. I'm sure we can work something out to get them to do some gardening in grandmas backyard.

 

[RogueInnovation]

Do you even want to spend your life working in a factory? I don't.
Do you believe that giving people menial jobs is a perfect solution to their financial situation? I don't.

Do I believe this can impinge on jobs? Absolutely. In slow to change industries it just equals layoffs. Those layoffs will then be squeezed on as companies get overly comfortable with new tech. They then will not have the same budget for workers as before.
Decreased budgets, mean less pay to the working class.

Bring people into planting trees and stuff, creating better information, creating things for the machine owners and POOF new jobs!
BUT that isn't easy, nor has it really ever been implemented.

So long as there is money you can extract it, THEORETICALLY.

The real thing to fear is in yourself, because if you can't adapt this stuff will hurt you.
And how this will realistically affect markets during transition periods, who knows?
Certainly it will then face regulations.


Computer tech is like agriculture. Agriculture allowed us to build cities. Yes it made hunter gatherers extinct, but now thats recreation.
I think this is good, I just think we should track it and interveine before budgets dry up for workers.

We just need to check that everybody catches up and moves through the transition, then its GOOD for humanity.

 

[nitrousflame]

People have been saying that humans are going to lose their job to automation for decades and it never happens. Just remember, for every job that is "replaced" by automation, a new job is created to implement that automation by someone needed to service, design, manufacture, and monitor the automation.

While this has held true so far, I'm not so sure it will continue forever. As the video suggests, horses had nothing to worry about prior to the early 1900's because in the previous centuries there was only an increase in their utility, but then the auto(mobile)s came about and replaced horses in a matter of years.

In an exponential adoption pattern, the change starts slow, but gains speed rapidly:

"Imagine a magic pipette. It is magic because every drop of water that comes out of it will double in size every minute. So the first minute there is one drop, the second minute there are two drops, the third minute four drops, the fourth minute eight drops and so on… This is an example of exponential growth. Now, imagine a normal sized football stadium. In this stadium you are sitting on the seat at the very top of the stadium, with the best overview of the whole stadium. To make things more interesting, imagine the stadium is completely water-tight and that you cannot move from your seat. The first drop from the magic pipette is dropped right in the middle of the field, at 12pm. Here's the question: Remembering that this drop grows exponentially by doubling in size every minute, how much time do you have to free yourself from the seat and leave the stadium before the water reaches your seat at the very top? Think about it for a moment. Is it hours, days, weeks, months?

The answer: You have exactly until 12:49pm. It takes this tiny magic drop less than 50 minutes to fill a whole football stadium with water. This is impressive! But it gets better: At what time do you think the football stadium is still 93% empty? Take a guess.

The answer: At 12:45pm. So, you sit and watch the drop growing, and after 45 minutes all you see is the playing field covered with water. And then, within four more minutes, the water fills the whole stadium. This means that you think you are safe because it seems that you have plenty of time left, whereas due to the exponential growth you really have to take immediate action if you want to have any chance of getting out of this situation."

So, assuming the automation adoption pattern is exponential, where are we on the timescale today? Interesting to think about.

 

[Iwokeup]

If my software solution takes off, it will save companies at least six figures...and cost a lot of jobs.

 

Dislike ads? Remove them and support the forum: Subscribe to Fastlane Insiders.

[Testament]

Hm...pretty scary stuff. But that does seem to beg the question, (with those consequences) why automate that much? If 99% of the world is unemployable and therefore without money, where will the money come from to keep paying for people to continue increasing robot productivity?

 

Dislike ads? Remove them and support the forum: Subscribe to Fastlane Insiders.

[hotshot]

How can YOU prove that you are "aware" of yourself?

I don't think it's possible to prove self awareness to another individual. It's one of our greatest dilemmas. Much the same way that you can never truly convey the "greenness of green" to another individual. How can I ever be sure that my green is the same as your green, it's my personal biological interpretation of an EM wavelength.

On the subject of robots becoming self-aware. It is definitely possible. In Thomas Metzinger's book "The Ego Tunnel" he describes precisely what consciousness is. Here's a quote which sums up the minimum requirements for creating a conscious robot: "...every conscious system needs a unified inner representation of the world and that the information integrated by this representation must be simultaneously available for a multitude of processing mechanisms." This doesn't sound too difficult does it? He actually advises against creating conscious robots because of ethical issues. The earliest generations of conscious robots are sure to have defects and we'll have no way of knowing exactly how they feel inside. And humans will become obsolete of course.

 

[DennisD]

This video makes me SO EXCITED. The future is going to be a wonderful place.
I get REALLY angry at people who fear such changes. It's unfounded, selfish, and shortsighted.

The idea that "jobs" are even a thing or a concern is retarded.
I remember watching the news and there was a PersonOnStreet interview with a woman asking what she thought about global climate change. She said she was upset that it was even a political issue, she said it's not political, and that what the politics should be about is "Job Creation".

Lady, It's not anybody's F*cking problem to make sure YOU have a F*cking JOB.
JOB = Value you bring to society.
YOU figure out on your own how to bring value to your fellow human.

Even with everything automated, even with free labor, free energy, and free food all around the table and ALL the current 'jobs' stripped, You can STILL find a way to bring value to other people.

It's RETARDED if you think that the only way to earn a wage is to help OTHER PEOPLE do things THEY TELL YOU TO DO.
If you can't find a way to bring value to society BY YOURSELF... what is the point of you?

 

[Mattie]

If you can't find a way to bring value to society BY YOURSELF... what is the point of you?

I'm going to say this because I've walked the walk and journey. People like you add no value to society when you demoralize human beings like I was in that drove around in car with fix a flat, a gas tank literally falling off a car, broken windshield wipers and sticking your head out the window hoping not to get in a car accident just to keep a job. Who fixed my car? Usually neighbors that were in the same boat adding value and sharing resources, because people like you said, put some rain-x on the windshield.

I could give you lots more examples of me jumping over hurdle after hurdle to get here and still jumping hurdles. I don't share my story for one reason. I'm bigger than my story or the people that were road blocks in my life and tried to tell me it was all my problem and issue. I probably won't be in this forum much longer, because of this kind of crap, and I'm sure in the future I will be a success because I worked my butt off every day for the last four years night and day to get there. It's not because I'm lazy, or unintelligent, or take action, it's because people have the same attitude is you. Thinking somehow you add value to society by saying what's the point of you.

I didn't ask for the situation I'm in, nor was it because of my actions that led to this situation. And I take responsibility for everyone else's choices and actions anyway, because I learned it's always my fault and I'm always to blame why other people choose to do what they do. It's been one hell of a journey to get here and my mindset and you talk like everyone has an easy path to becoming an entrepreneur especially where you came from where I did. And no I'm not play victim here. It's just stupid that I have the same mindset as most of the people in this forum and the only difference may be you have the resources as in money to do things right at this moment in time. And no I don't give a crap about how much money you have, I know my opportunity will arrive when it does. In the mean time I have to listen to people like you tell me I add no value to society because somehow you think you're better than the rest of the world.

And what I have learned is I don't ever want to treat people like you once I get there. Because I know how tough it is, I see people struggling and fighting to get there and the pain and suffering they're in, and sure there are some lazy people, and there are people like me that do everything they can to be where they want to be. It's all B.S. if you ask me, because every single person had to go through obstacles and hurdles to get here, and I'm sure I'm not the only one here trying to make that path and maybe you were born in a rich family and never had to go through a lot of stuff, who knows, but obviously if you have, you've forgotten the journey.

 

[kph200]

As an engineer and studying automation for years I am certain that most jobs can be replaced by robots. F*ck Jobs.
Fastlane is the only way to go.

 

Dislike ads? Remove them and support the forum: Subscribe to Fastlane Insiders.

[kph200]

First, people like to deal with people for a lot of things

I agree with your opinion but robots can provide great assistance in service industries too. Let's say I go to Spain and I walk in to a restaurant, now I can't speak a word in Spanish but a bot can speak to me in my native language and read out all menu and take order.

The only point here is we are limited to our imagination.

 

[LateStarter]

If human factors are worth so much, why do people use ATM's? Why do people pump their own gas? Why do people buy anything online? If what you are saying was true small town America, with all it's local Mom & Pop shops, would still be bountiful today. I don't say this to poke holes in your theories or opinions but merely to present that you're trying to look at the future through the lens and limitations of the present.

Take the phone automation example that you stated. I think you're assuming that its the best tech we'll ever see for that application. That's not the case. Just because the current iteration sucks doesn't mean that future versions will also. Imagine what future versions of Siri/Ok Google could be like. Now imagine that interface to this kind of a system. Would it still suck? If current voice recognition systems continue to advance at the exponential rates they have been, it won't be very long until 80+% of the people probably wouldn't even know it was an AI system answering their calls.

Without sounding too much like a futurist, AI, infinite computing, IoT are all going through explosive changes right now. It's not just the "useless people" that need to worry about their jobs. Neural networks are enabling computers to learn without the benefit of prior history. Computers are beginning to be able to program software and optimize algorithms. While this is still in it's relative infancy, that growth path is also exponential. As access to information grows and is democratized, and computing power continues along Moore's path, computers will be able to analyze and determine optimal solutions for highly complex problems. This will enable computers to start replacing white collar workers as well as blue. I believe that it will start with roles that are more technical than creative. Don't believe me? Look at the current Qualcomm Tricorder X Prize. If doctors can begin to be replaced, or deemed unnecessary in some limited capacity to start with by this device, who is next?

Need more evidence? How about an algorithm replacing staff to prescreen job applications? "Our analysis of 17 studies of applicant evaluations shows that a simple equation outperforms human decisions by at least 25%." While it's not a robot in the traditional physical sense like you're alluding to, it's certainly able to replace a person's role in the company.

Expand your mind!

 

Dislike ads? Remove them and support the forum: Subscribe to Fastlane Insiders.

[pickeringmt]

That is wild.

It makes total sense, but the idea of there no longer being any need for the human element on the producing side of the economy is mind-bending.

I realize that this is the fantasy of the majority of people out there, but where will the means to consume come from?

Raises a lot of questions....

 

[The-J]

People have been saying that humans are going to lose their job to automation for decades and it never happens.

Not all humans are going to lose their jobs. Just a lot of them. Look at stock brokers and travel agents. There are some around, but not as many as there were.

When robots become (1) just as good or better than humans at a job AND (2) become cheaper to use than humans AND (3) not too painful to implement for the company or organization, then they will take over a position.

Like the vid said, when 30 part-time cashiers lose their jobs, they are replaced by 1 to 3 humans who oversee the machines that have replaced them. Those cashiers didn't just disappear.

Farmers in the US tend to their field with GPS-guided tractor units. They don't even have to navigate, they basically just sit and make sure nothing F*cks up.

I personally welcome our robot overlords. The more machines there are, the less machine we realize ourselves to be. Right now, we need human management of the machines. Soon, machines will manage themselves based on algorithms.

Programmers tell machines what to do by writing code. Soon, machines will write the code for other machines (in fact, you can already do this).

Engineers teach machines how to do new things. Soon, machines will be able to teach other machines based on research done jointly by humans and machines.

Many people around the world fight and kill other humans in international disputes. Today, we use drones in addition to fighter pilots. Soon, we will create unmanned robots that are designed to fight. Other nations will follow suit, not wanting to kill their own people. Less humans will kill each other in war. Think Star Wars: The Clone Wars. But that's way in the future.

There's a LOT more examples, but as our current technology gets cheaper and easier to use, more and more people will get replaced by robots.

 

Dislike ads? Remove them and support the forum: Subscribe to Fastlane Insiders.

[The-J]

What should be happening is limiting the population growth and maybe a gradual reduction of the population via a one child policy like china. getting rid of shit jobs is great!

We don't need one of those. The average family sizes are going down. Birth rate goes down as death rate and life expectancy goes down. Every single time.

Population will level itself out as fewer people desire to have kids (which is happening now, look at Japan with its negative population growth! Now if you think about any country in terms of robots, Japan would be it.) However, what will there be to do with the people who are out of work? Make them become programmers and engineers? Will the 'cashier' of today be the 'robot manager' of tomorrow?

 

[brandonrush]

Hmmm... I don't know guys. the first thing that comes to mind is that sure a tractor trailer can be driven by a bot, but the total job of an operator has too many variables and new events. I can see how using a bot for driving a rig ideally would seem to improve a company's bottom line, but they can't even get gps right yet for truck routes. Old tech needs to work accurately first to communicate effectively with the new. Otherwise, people could get hurt.

The Google driver-less car has already completed 700,000 miles on public roadways. In those 700,000 miles the car has only had TWO accidents. First accident occured when the vehicle was being driven manually, and the second accident was the result of a the driver-less car being rear-ended. I don't think 700k miles on one car is a perfect example, but I think it's a great start!

 

[NVaz]

Scary...at least.

What material are robots made of, there'll be a lot of demand

 

[fasteddienc]

Hm...pretty scary stuff. But that does seem to beg the question, (with those consequences) why automate that much? If 99% of the world is unemployable and therefore without money, where will the money come from to keep paying for people to continue increasing robot productivity?

That's the thing, is it really necessary to live an existence where our very survival depends on whether we have money for food, shelter, clothing, etc. Remember, we made it all up. The monetary system, taxes, the value of things, etc. I know it goes against everything we have ever known, but humans can do better. If you unleash science and technology to provide anything and everything for everyone, how can that be a bad thing.

Right now there are literally dozens of communities online that advocate a moneyless society. Check out The Venus Project, The Zeitgeist Movement, The Free World Charter, Moneyless Society, etc. Yes it all sounds hokey/new age and many will poo poo the idea cause it goes against all they know or have known.

Imagine a world of MJ DeMarco's that don't need the money, but are willing to contribute to the betterment of society as a whole. MJ doesn't has to provide this forum or write books, but he chooses to give something back. So yes, plenty of people would be inspired to find cures for cancer and other major problems without the need for profit. True passion in its purest form.

 

Dislike ads? Remove them and support the forum: Subscribe to Fastlane Insiders.

[AdrianMC]

The one thing that robots are missing is consciousness. A robot isn't aware of itself.

Great post, but I just wanted to ask. How can YOU prove that you are "aware" of yourself? This is taken from the movie Transcendence, where some humans ask the AI "Can you prove that you are self-aware?" and the AI responds, "Can you?"

 

Dislike ads? Remove them and support the forum: Subscribe to Fastlane Insiders.

[fasteddienc]