Hi guys,
After reading up on some guys who trade crypto I've become intrigued about the validity of Technical Analysis for both cryptos and conventional stocks.
From a rudimentary viewpoint I don't see how the past can predict the future. Trying to recognize patterns is fair but there seems to be enough of a variety of terms and then some vagueness to fit almost any graph/scenario. There's also a ton of random variables that graphs can't communicate.
I also read this on Motley Fool's website -
The more you dig, the weighter the evidence against technical analysis gets. An October 2009 study by New Zealand's Massey University tested more than 5,000 technical analysis strategies in 49 different countries. The result? Not one strategy generated returns that aren't predicted by chance.
Let me repeat that. Not one.
I can't find the original study but it's a reputable source. Also cryptos have been heavily manipulated since their inception by guys with big money. So that makes the price history even more unreliable.
Can anyone demonstrate that TA has some validity as a method, and that it's not just a case of some guys getting lucky and riding the wave of variance?
After reading up on some guys who trade crypto I've become intrigued about the validity of Technical Analysis for both cryptos and conventional stocks.
From a rudimentary viewpoint I don't see how the past can predict the future. Trying to recognize patterns is fair but there seems to be enough of a variety of terms and then some vagueness to fit almost any graph/scenario. There's also a ton of random variables that graphs can't communicate.
I also read this on Motley Fool's website -
The more you dig, the weighter the evidence against technical analysis gets. An October 2009 study by New Zealand's Massey University tested more than 5,000 technical analysis strategies in 49 different countries. The result? Not one strategy generated returns that aren't predicted by chance.
Let me repeat that. Not one.
I can't find the original study but it's a reputable source. Also cryptos have been heavily manipulated since their inception by guys with big money. So that makes the price history even more unreliable.
Can anyone demonstrate that TA has some validity as a method, and that it's not just a case of some guys getting lucky and riding the wave of variance?
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