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GuestUser4aMPs1
Guest
The "Tried-and-True" is harder than the Wild West, and I’ll prove it.
We live in a world that’s obsessed with pushing everyone through a narrow, “proven” path. Even in business, mass consensuses exist within business communities, often called “best practices” that keep organizations stuck in a rut.
Best practices aren’t “best” if everyone does them.
Every innovation falls into this trap too, and every innovator recognizes they exist in cycles. The real innovator, the guy who doesn’t do what “works” according to the consensus, stays on top by constantly seeking new untapped opportunities and divesting at the right time.
Imagine yourself and every productive individual in the economy as a miner — Because in some sense you are. Every miner attempts to extract gold (Value) from the ground (Market). Every hole in the ground is a market, and there’s a LOT of untapped Gold left to be discovered that don’t exist in mines.
Now, you observe something curious: Most miners prefer to dig in the same holes, regardless of the dwindling rewards of doing so. You also know that miners who struck it early with the most gold got out.
You continue to observe dozens of miners pile into this hole.
They refuse to dig new mines.
...Why?
Because nobody wants to risk digging in the wrong place.
But what’s the consequences of never digging new mines?
Soon enough, with little gold left to mine, many of those late miners dwindle away as the hole is stripped bare of its remaining gold.
So, where are the early miners?
Since they got out at the peak of the action, they’ve since dug new mines hidden from the prying eyes of the mass miners. They’ll continue to dig tiny mines, Making small bets along the way, based on their geological indicators, until they strike gold.
Once they strike Gold, it’s go time. Their mine MUST extract as much value possible, out of the prying eyes of mass miners, until the mine hits maturation. At this point it’s safe to exit. Leaving too early or too late will kill your upside.
A mine (or market) cycle looks like this…
1: Wild West (Unproven)
2: Gold Struck (Growth)
3: Full Extraction (Peak Interest)
4: Saturation (Courses / Guruism)
5: Decline (Late Miners)
Notice how most of the value has been extracted by the time the market hits peak interest. At this point, Course/Guruism becomes the defacto offramp for early players — They know they’ve extracted most of the value, but can sell the shovels to miners who want to dig up the little remaining Gold.
In business, it’s always worth testing unproven ideas in small ways that don’t cost much. Doing your best to ensure success actually hurts your odds in the long term:
Real success lies beneath the surface where nobody else has dug.
Stop doing what works, because it’ll stop working soon.
We live in a world that’s obsessed with pushing everyone through a narrow, “proven” path. Even in business, mass consensuses exist within business communities, often called “best practices” that keep organizations stuck in a rut.
Best practices aren’t “best” if everyone does them.
Every innovation falls into this trap too, and every innovator recognizes they exist in cycles. The real innovator, the guy who doesn’t do what “works” according to the consensus, stays on top by constantly seeking new untapped opportunities and divesting at the right time.
Imagine yourself and every productive individual in the economy as a miner — Because in some sense you are. Every miner attempts to extract gold (Value) from the ground (Market). Every hole in the ground is a market, and there’s a LOT of untapped Gold left to be discovered that don’t exist in mines.
Now, you observe something curious: Most miners prefer to dig in the same holes, regardless of the dwindling rewards of doing so. You also know that miners who struck it early with the most gold got out.
You continue to observe dozens of miners pile into this hole.
They refuse to dig new mines.
...Why?
Because nobody wants to risk digging in the wrong place.
But what’s the consequences of never digging new mines?
Soon enough, with little gold left to mine, many of those late miners dwindle away as the hole is stripped bare of its remaining gold.
So, where are the early miners?
Since they got out at the peak of the action, they’ve since dug new mines hidden from the prying eyes of the mass miners. They’ll continue to dig tiny mines, Making small bets along the way, based on their geological indicators, until they strike gold.
Once they strike Gold, it’s go time. Their mine MUST extract as much value possible, out of the prying eyes of mass miners, until the mine hits maturation. At this point it’s safe to exit. Leaving too early or too late will kill your upside.
A mine (or market) cycle looks like this…
1: Wild West (Unproven)
2: Gold Struck (Growth)
3: Full Extraction (Peak Interest)
4: Saturation (Courses / Guruism)
5: Decline (Late Miners)
Notice how most of the value has been extracted by the time the market hits peak interest. At this point, Course/Guruism becomes the defacto offramp for early players — They know they’ve extracted most of the value, but can sell the shovels to miners who want to dig up the little remaining Gold.
In business, it’s always worth testing unproven ideas in small ways that don’t cost much. Doing your best to ensure success actually hurts your odds in the long term:
Real success lies beneath the surface where nobody else has dug.
Stop doing what works, because it’ll stop working soon.
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