Stock Market Trading Rotation System

[ljean]

Well i'm pretty much back to even on the year. Lightened up a little more this week and am at about 45% cash in the portfolio.

 

[RahKnee]

@levijean , are you not shorting anything? Most momentum/trend traders I know make their bank on the downside.

 

[ljean]

Lightened up a little more this week. Currently sitting on 50% cash.

 

[ljean]

Lightened up a little more this week. Now sitting on over 60% cash.

 

[ljean]

No notably good trades closed out recently. Got out of a handful of positions today that were going nowhere. Currently sitting on 75% cash.

 

[ljean]

Closed this one out today for a 33% gain. Bought it last summer around $13.50. I've slowly been increasing my stock exposure the past few weeks but still mostly in cash.

 

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[ljean]

Closed out this one today at a 35% gain. Bought for $19 last summer. Was up around 80% in October but now its time to move on.

 

[Kevin88660]

There are many successful long term trend followers who make a living but I believe it is FAR EASIER to make money from short term mean reversion for the following reason.

1)Too many CTA firms are long term trend followers and this diminish returns for such strategies. James Simon sums up in an interview that the kind of beautiful trends you get into the 80s are gone and ever since the 90s they focused on mean reversion only.

2) long term trading is hard because you only realise that the trades do not work out, after a long time. This creates huge opportunity cost for failed long term trend following.

3)Tail risk for well executed mean reversion strategies are exaggerated by black swans lovers.
-short term micro-inefficiencies are abundant and unlikely to go away, even in 2008 a lot of long only stratgies are making money than usual.

-Human discretionary judgement can reduce mean reversion loss easily through simple things like minimizing position size before major news.

 

[ljean]

Got crushed in this position last week during earnings. Closed today for 35% loss.

 

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[ljean]

Nothing too notable to report this month. Performance has been flat - lagging the S&P due to sitting on mostly cash the past few months. As of today though, back to 85% invested. If there IS a recession around the corner the stock market sure isnt anticipating it as we are now back to all-time highs.

 

[MJ DeMarco]

My system simply looks at stocks with the highest price change with a 6-month look back.

So is this the extent of your screening criteria? Just the big performers for the last 6 months? No other technical or fundamental criteria? Min volume? EPS? I'm basically trying to determine how something gets on your radar where you say, "Yea, this is a bet I'll make."

Congrats on the return, the last week hasn't been pretty.

 

[ljean]

Closed out a 30% gain in this one today.

 

[ljean]

Closed out a good one today - bought around $3.00 a few weeks ago.



I'm essentially back to 100% invested in stocks after holding a lot of cash a few months ago. I do have a tiny bit in a T-Bond etf.

Last month the stock screening site I had subscribed to for a few years closed down so I had to scramble to find an alternative. I tried out a few services but they werent quite working out so I hired a programmer to code me exactly what I want. It took some time & expense at $90/hr but he was able to replicate my strategy to produce the weekly buy & sell signals I need.

 

[eliquid]

Closed out a good one today - bought around $3.00 a few weeks ago.

View attachment 25819

I'm essentially back to 100% invested in stocks after holding a lot of cash a few months ago. I do have a tiny bit in a T-Bond etf.

Last month the stock screening site I had subscribed to for a few years closed down so I had to scramble to find an alternative. I tried out a few services but they werent quite working out so I hired a programmer to code me exactly what I want. It took some time & expense at $90/hr but he was able to replicate my strategy to produce the weekly buy & sell signals I need.

Had a question about this.

I have been dis-satisfied with stock screeners myself and HAVE BEEN looking to create my own.

I can code it fine, but where are you getting the raw data from all the stocks from?Meaning the raw feed? I've seen a few providers, but they are all over the place in terms of price, usage amounts, etc.

Been stuck at that stage for a few months going back and forth on who I would use for a feed.

Any info? Thanks for any advice.

Thanks
Jason

 

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[ljean]

Sold this one today for a quick 20%+ profit

 

[ljean]

Well I'm finally ahead of my benchmark once again. Unfortunately I'm still down some 30%ish. Current allocation is 40% bonds, 40% gold, 20% stocks. Gold has not been acting well lately, that may go to cash next week if it fails to improve.

 

[ljean]

Had a crazy November, my entire portfolio was up over 20%. Then this one ended with a huge bang, bought a couple months ago at $3:

 

[Martzee]

Had a crazy November, my entire portfolio was up over 20%. Then this one ended with a huge bang, bought a couple months ago at $3:

View attachment 35828

How do you screen for these stocks?

 

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[vgfdshjn]

I am interested in creating a stock screener for myself. What resources did you use?

 

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[ljean]

I am interested in creating a stock screener for myself. What resources did you use?

I subscribe to data from Quandl and use a Jupiter notebook hosted on AWS to do the computations.

 

[ljean]

This one is a recent disappointment. I bought it back in July around $10 and watched it nearly double. Then the company announced a new share offering in August and the price plummeted. I got out around even and missed the big move up.

 

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[ljean]

I recently started using my brokerage account like a bank account by withdrawing personal expenses out of it via bill pay. Presently, just my mortgage & property taxes are being drafted monthly. Ultimately, the goal would be to have most or all of my personal expenses paid for with capital gains & dividends. I need a 4% annual return to cover my housing cost without drawing down principal which shouldnt be overly difficult. I have a margin account so I can borrow against stock at silly low rates if I dont have any available cash.

Health insurance will be the next big expense to cover.

 

[ljean]

Heres a kick in the shorts, I sold 800 shares of this earlier this month in the $12s for a small loss.

 

[MartijnS]

I subscribe to data from Quandl and use a Jupiter notebook hosted on AWS to do the computations.

Looks like a nice source, but it looks like they do not have Stock Options as datafeed, am I correct?

Does anyone know of feeds that als offer Options feeds? Could definitely be delayed or even daily.

I'm looking to build a 'covered calls' tools, so i would need data for both the options and the underlying equity.

 

[ljean]

@MartijnS I have messed around with options data at QuantConnect.

 

[MartijnS]

@MartijnS I have messed around with options data at QuantConnect.

Thanks! Will check it out!

 

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[ljean]

I have been trading in & out of this over the past year but never getting anywhere. Missed this move unfortunately.

 

[ljean]

Here is a good one closed out this week. Bought a few months ago in the $5s.

 

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[ljean]

Rough day today, down $65k

 

[ljean]

Rough day today, down $65k

Correction - $75k