Shared Portfolio

[randallg99]

maybe I am wrong, but I think Bobby Casey is fully aware of the global economy.

As for me, my portfolio has been heavy in Chinese companies for quite some time. I did a swing trade with ZSTN even.

But my question was that I was looking for specific companies that drove your YTD at 15% (or annualized at 180%) ... and if there's any other company fulfilling the trend that you're spotting.

Thanks.

 

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[maximus20895]

Last year was the best year in a while for stocks. I loved October 2008 because I knew that so many stocks were going to be so undervalued. When people are freaking out all over the place, that is the time to buy. Period.

I bought most of my stocks in March or April of 2009 as I thought that is when the market was starting to correct itself. Just a few companies I bought was John Deere (DE) and "Potash" (POT). These both are agriculture companies and look what they did at the end of '09.

As a side note, I also bought some energy companies as well. My best performer the whole of '09 was Tenaris (TS) I think I increase my investment on that stock by 96%.

I really don't like saying annualized in terms of stocks as you are assuming way to many variables are going to happen throughout the whole year. That's where people get into trouble assuming, especially in stocks.

I know some people that invested in stocks and within 2 months it rose 50%. He was so ecstatic. I told him to take a deep breath and do more homework on the company and set a point where he should pull out.

He calculated that since in 2 months it rose 50% in a year it will rise 600%. I kept on telling him that he was wrong, but he stayed anyway. Of course, the company ( I forgot what stock it was) fell and he sold for a loss of 11%.

He assumed that just because it rose a great deal in two months that it would rise the same rate in 12. Where have you ever seen a stock rise or even fall at a constant rate? Never.

He assumed and he got hit hard. Most importantly HE GOT EMOTIONAL WITH HIS STOCKS. This is also a big no no. I invest in my stocks and I don't get emotionally involved. The stock is there to make me money an that is that. This is probably one of the most severe problems people make.

 

[GlobalWealth]

Most importantly HE GOT EMOTIONAL WITH HIS STOCKS. This is also a big no no.

Your friend really needs to become acquainted with trailing stops. He could have locked in big gains and severly limited his loss.

When I asked 'how did you capture the opportunity?', what I meant was, specifically, what did you buy that generated a 15% YTD return. But now I see you didn't mean YTD.

What do you mean with a 15% return? 15% annualized? 15% this week?

I agree 100% with watching macroeconomic conditions, or global trends. This is a critical part of my strategy. I personally and not a technician in the markets. I am more of a value investor who hedges and occasionally speculates with options. But global trends are important. For example, right now may not be the best time to invest in a company that sells record players. I hear that industry may be waning...

 

[Jonleehacker]

For example, right now may not be the best time to invest in a company that sells record players. I hear that industry may be waning...

You may be surprised that the vinyl record industry is actually making quite a comeback:

This story is from April. 2009...

Origami Vinyl, exclusively stocks new vinyl LPs, presumed not long ago to be as dead as eight-track tapes.

Moreover, Origami is just one of at least three such shops opening in L.A. this spring; the others are Vacation in Los Feliz and Little Radio, a downtown storefront operated by an Internet radio station and concert promoter. The small boom is the result of a commercial rediscovery and appreciation of vinyl records among collectors and more casual audiences.

In a digital age, vinyl's making a comeback - Los Angeles Times

Wouldn't be putting my money on the line in this industry, but it does fall into the category of "you never know!"

 

[randallg99]

this week was difficult. I was up nicely and prepared for any downturn only to put the stops in a little too late and lost for the week another 1/2% of the port. I am glad my stops went off on Wed and Thurs because those stocks are down from where they were sold at, but there was life at the end of Friday's session.

I really think we are on the cusp of a big rally or a big bear rally. Either way, the long term charts and trends still point to a market in a downturn. Ideally hedging via SPX puts is prudent and I will be looking there this week.

MBS Reits were very resilient this week and showed gains. Of course, I only traded them for a gain, but holding them would have provided better returns for the week.

macro stories affecting the market last week and upcoming week:
1. unemployment numbers are skewed just the way George Orwell liked in 1984- doublespeak works!
2. California is on verge of bankruptcy and might be the best way to go.... remove the fiscal responsibility from the politicians and put them into the courts.

3. Greece - if there's just any one thing anyone can take home from this post today, it's this: remember the late 90s when the Thai bhat collapsed? A little puny country with a lot of exports had a currency crisis set the precedent for the Asian financial crisis that followed just a year later. Let this be the lesson we learn regarding Europe. Greece probably has the same GDP as my kids on a good day at the beach but if their collapse comes to reality then we all better watch out below. the US$ will shoot to the moon and equities will drop like wiley coyote's anvil.

For the week I was down .29%;

YTD down 4.05%.

Versus
dow -3.99%
nas -5.64%
s&p -4.40%

my high beta positions are having a severe impact on the portfolio.

Cash is now approaching 80% (wow) which is a part of the strategy in preparation for the black swan event if one should come

LGHEF 0.00%
MDNNF 0.49%
VNR 2.38%
AVT 5.65%
TYL 3.96%
NLY 3.79%
SDRLF 4.57%
total 20.84%
cash 79.16%
100.00%

 

[randallg99]

Now down -4.54% VS DOW, S&P, Nas all around down 1%

investing in high beta stocks is laying a smackdown on my port.
While I won't stop trading, I plan on deploying my funds into the mbs market again. The 2-10yr spead is highest ever and the quantative easing policy shift is creating some havoc for the sector making some nice values.
gladly I've stayed out for the past couple of months but looking this week to reenter: WAC, CMO and ANH (in addition to the CIM and NLY I had already) All are yielding mid teens at today's prices.

current port:
LGHEF 0.00%
MDNNF 0.48%
RINO 8.23%
EBIX 4.02%
CIM 9.16%
NLY 4.47%
TYL 3.88%
DVN 5.39%
AVT 5.67%
NMM 5.45%
HITK 2.17%
ZSTN 5.44%
VNR 2.60%
SDRLF 4.45%
CASH 38.48%
TOTAL 100.00%

 

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[randallg99]

week 9 results:

LGHEF0.00%
MDNNF0.50%
HITK2.57%
VNR2.61%
NUS2.85%
CMN3.26%
EBIX3.43%
NLY4.59%
KIRK4.76%
SDRLF4.82%
WM5.14%
DVN5.31%
CHK5.32%
NMM5.68%
LIWA5.69%
ZSTN5.85%
CIM6.10%
CASH31.54%

My port -1.44% YTD
DOW +1.32
NAS +2.52
S&P +2.12

I skipped last week's posting. That was one very brutal week and I violated many of the rules I've set for myself. This week I went heavier into higher beta stocks and picked up many of the "stocks on the move" from IBD. Sadly, I was down almost 7% ytd last week while this week I am now "only" down 1.44%.

I just had the biggest week in many years with very little trading. I bought EBIX stock and went long EBIX April15 options on Monday and sold the options today for a 300% gain. of course i hit myself in the head thinking I shoulda margined the whole damn account!

But jst because I had a huge week, I can't say that my trading methods are truly working but I paid better attention to the rules and the discipline is helpful.

sector allocation:
31% cash
18% energy
10% mortgage back

and then a bit of china, about 11%

I really think if we pop up above S&P 1150, then we've begun a new bull market and I'll put an additional 10% of my capital into equities.

Good Luck.

 

[maximus20895]

A bit of china!!!!!???? Why are you not investing in forein markets? That is where the money is at right now. Most business in the USA are pretty much stabilized. BRIC. Brazil, Russia, India and China! That's the $$$ pit!

What is your strategy?

 

[randallg99]

A bit of china!!!!!???? Why are you not investing in forein markets? That is where the money is at right now. Most business in the USA are pretty much stabilized. BRIC. Brazil, Russia, India and China! That's the $$$ pit!

What is your strategy?

My strategy is simple: control my losers by deploying simple rules effectively. The key to this market is to be "right" about 25% of the time with big winners by cutting losers using 8% - 10% stop losses. Keeping this strategy has eliminated much of my risks while allowing me to preserve capital.

If you lose 50% on a stock, you'll need that stock to double just to recover your initial investment. This is a very rare feat accomplished after the damage is done. This strategy is one of IBD's main premise and it's very effective.

Regarding foreign markets, no matter what you read or hear, there is no other country in the world as solid as the USA in terms of market systems and transparency.

I have about 11.5% exposure to China (ZSTN, LIWA) not inlcuding the shipping company highly dependent upon Chinese exports.

China, as I have feared for a long time has been riding a very large inflated bubble and is about to take a pretty big shit. See this article just publishing tomorrow! Those of us who've been paying very close attention to US bond market auctions have already suspected China was suffering some financial distress:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aIcTfdm5rWdY&pos=2
>March 8 (Bloomberg) -- China plans to nullify all guarantees local governments have provided for loans taken by their financing vehicles as concerns about credit risks on such debt surges.<

 

[maximus20895]

You can not honestly tell me that you read IBD and they do not tell you to invest in foreign markets. If you are not investing somewhere besides USA then you are missing out my friend. It's as simple as that.

Brazil, Russia, India, and China. It's that simple. In most people's portfolios, the foreign stocks yield the highest at this time and will be for the next couple of years. I gained 96% on a Brazil stock a couple month back. You can't tell me that you could do that with a US stock.

If you invest in trends that you can forget about the being right 25% bullshit. That means your main gainers are only 25%. Would you want your highest yielding stock be the stock you put most of your money into?

Right, USA is solid correct. That is not what stocks are about. Walmart is F*cking solid. Solid as a damn rock. Hell, there stock even rose A little bit during the recession, but solid is shit in terms of stocks.

You don't want solid stocks, you want GROWTH and in the USA most of the companies are done growing. Go into other countries where there is a growing middle class that wasn't there a few years back. Now you have TONS of POTENTIAL GROWTH. You don't get money for buying stocks that don't do shit. You get money by buying stock that go up, not stay flat all the damn time.

Yes, I know about China and yes I know about it's bubble, but that doesn't mean that there is still a middle class growing. The stocks that are providing products for this new market is going to boom..bubble or not.

What kind of US stocks are you even in? I would like to know some US stocks that are growing.

 

[GlobalWealth]

You can not honestly tell me that you read IBD and they do not tell you to invest in foreign markets. If you are not investing somewhere besides USA then you are missing out my friend. It's as simple as that.

Brazil, Russia, India, and China. It's that simple. In most people's portfolios, the foreign stocks yield the highest at this time and will be for the next couple of years. I gained 96% on a Brazil stock a couple month back. You can't tell me that you could do that with a US stock.

If you invest in trends that you can forget about the being right 25% bullshit. That means your main gainers are only 25%. Would you want your highest yielding stock be the stock you put most of your money into?

Right, USA is solid correct. That is not what stocks are about. Walmart is F*cking solid. Solid as a damn rock. Hell, there stock even rose A little bit during the recession, but solid is shit in terms of stocks.

You don't want solid stocks, you want GROWTH and in the USA most of the companies are done growing. Go into other countries where there is a growing middle class that wasn't there a few years back. Now you have TONS of POTENTIAL GROWTH. You don't get money for buying stocks that don't do shit. You get money by buying stock that go up, not stay flat all the damn time.

Yes, I know about China and yes I know about it's bubble, but that doesn't mean that there is still a middle class growing. The stocks that are providing products for this new market is going to boom..bubble or not.

What kind of US stocks are you even in? I would like to know some US stocks that are growing.

From reading your post it seems you are saying everyone has (or should have) the same investment philosophy. This is not correct. And while you say stocks like Walmart are solid but non performing, this really depends on how you manage your portfolio. There are as many was to manage a portfolio as there are portfolio managers. For example, Verizon is also one of those 'solid' but non performing stocks. I made over 25% last year on VZ using options. Not too shabby considering it is a non performer and the stock stayed in a tight trading range all year. I made about 12% on Walmart btw. And last year, there were lots of US stocks that returned 96% in one year. But last year was an anomaly and can lead one to believe they are actually a brilliant trader when in fact they were just riding the wave. When the fed adds a couple of trillion dollars to the economy it tends to filter out to the stock market. Of course we had a huge run up. I hope we all rode the wave. But, like Randall, I hope we are all keeping stop losses too as just like every other bubble, they tend to pop. I do agree that we all need some international exposure. I just bought EWJ, the Japan large cap ETF. Currently its trading at an aggregate 6.5x cash flow and about 9x P/E. With the S&P500 trading at about 25x P/E, Japan is cheap. India is likely my next target. I have also diversified with companies like Philip Morris International. This is the international divisision of Altri (old Philip Morris) and has 100% international exposure with a huge market share in Asia. And yes,this is one of those non peformers but including dividends I made about 30% last year on this one.

 

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[randallg99]

You can not honestly tell me that you read IBD and they do not tell you to invest in foreign markets. If you are not investing somewhere besides USA then you are missing out my friend. It's as simple as that.

IBD strictly follows company's fundamentals regardless of their location and places emphasis on their entry and exit points.

As I stated in my previous post, about 11.5% of my port is in China, and I have another 25% foreign exposure via NMM, SDRLF and there are American companies like WM & EBIX which have a lot of worldwide exposure.

Brazil, Russia, India, and China. It's that simple. In most people's portfolios, the foreign stocks yield the highest at this time and will be for the next couple of years. I gained 96% on a Brazil stock a couple month back. You can't tell me that you could do that with a US stock..

When you say "most peoples'" exposures, who do you refer to? Page C1 of today's wall street journal partially sums up my sentiment.

See the article "Is the Roar too load in China?"

I made about 300% on long EBIX calls just last week so you can have nice returns with managed risks in US equities.

A quick screen just showed American company RCNI making about 500% 1 year return on its stock investment. (I don't have a position)

If you invest in trends that you can forget about the being right 25% bullshit. That means your main gainers are only 25%. Would you want your highest yielding stock be the stock you put most of your money into?.

this would be very poor risk management, IMHO. Your tolerance for risk might be much different than mine and you can sustain significant losses relative to your portfolio if they come.

If you get a 100% return on 25% of your portfolio while losing 10% on the other 75% on your port, then you will have made a very handsome return on your portfolio that maybe only a fraction of investors ever realize.

You don't want solid stocks, you want GROWTH and in the USA most of the companies are done growing. Go into other countries where there is a growing middle class that wasn't there a few years back. Now you have TONS of POTENTIAL GROWTH. You don't get money for buying stocks that don't do shit. You get money by buying stock that go up, not stay flat all the damn time..

This is where we would partially disagree. The equity market and its relationship to the bond markets are a direct reflection of the health of the economy and companies.

And there are ways of making money if stocks stay flat. (see kidgas's thread about collars. thankfully he's back!)

There are many stocks that have done very well in the 2000's (considered to be the lost decade) while the markets stayed flat.

Yes, I know about China and yes I know about it's bubble, but that doesn't mean that there is still a middle class growing. The stocks that are providing products for this new market is going to boom..bubble or not..

this reminds me of the mentality during the internet bubble when I lost several hundred thousand dollars and some people I know lost 80% of their wealth and/or retirement savings and to this day they still have not recovered. Everyone was saying "you can't lose" on companies like CMGI, ARBA, JDSU, BRCM among many others.

I am afraid we are seeing some of that same mentality driving the "BRIC" stocks with much disregard to the macro and geopolitical circumstances.

With proper risk management, stop losses and a strong awareness of the macro environment, people made a LOT of money in that internet bubble era despite the aggregate loss of wealth that proceeded. (see Warren Buffet)

What kind of US stocks are you even in? I would like to know some US stocks that are growing.

Here are 4 US stocks, all up 10% or more YTD. Or annualized at 60% to 200%.

Ebix Inc Share Price Chart | EBIX - Yahoo! Finance

The IBD has a very extensive list of companies that are growing fundamentally. I prefer to review their "stocks on the move" page because it's very helpful in identifying the most watched stocks which already have strong fundamentals (eliminates a lot of screen search work) but because they're on the list there is either news looming or large institutional purchases occuring.

 

[randallg99]

What kind of US stocks are you even in? I would like to know some US stocks that are growing.

KACHING!!!!
:banana:
Ebix Announces Record Fourth Quarter and Full Year Results - Yahoo! Finance

 

[randallg99]

I went long EBIX calls yesterday.
the portfolio was up .41% for the day vs. indices being down.

Along with EBIX JUN longs (15 & 17.5) I also bought ATHR for a swing trade with a tight stop.

Momentum trading with tight stops seem to be prudent for the majority of the equities. P/E historical average is 16.36 and today it's 20.64- A price leg down of 10-20% should NOT be unexpected .... so mitigatating risk in this environment is a must.

 

[randallg99]

NLY got an analyst rating cut this morning. Perfect buying opportunity.

Up about 25% on the position while collecting 20% yield. It's been a great performer in my portfolio. This is more or less fast lane stuff.

seems to be good timing for this rating cut as we approach another dividend run up

I'll be adding another block to my holdings today.

do your own DD.

 

[randallg99]

NLY got an analyst rating cut this morning. Perfect buying opportunity.

Up about 25% on the position while collecting 20% yield. It's been a great performer in my portfolio. This is more or less fast lane stuff.

seems to be good timing for this rating cut as we approach another dividend run up

I'll be adding another block to my holdings today.

do your own DD.

my bid was off by 3 cents from the low and I never added to the position. Damn.

quite happy with my performance today despite not making any trades.

portfolio outperformed major indices past 3 sessions and it's looking solid with just almost all positions being gainers and only 1 loser (CMN) about to trigger a stop loss.

another fine day for EBIX and long EBIX calls.

S&P reaching a very pivotal point of 1150. This is an important level and if penetrated then we'll see significant upside.

 

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[randallg99]

market's knocking at S&P's 1150 mark all week.... very anxious to see if a break out occurs.

I am very pleased that my port outperformed Nas, Dow and S&P by a couple of hundred basis points during 3 week period of Feb 19 through Mar 13.

YTD- down .83% while Dow, Nas and S&P are all up more than 2.7%

trades this week:
added a few hundred shares of NLY but most of my bids were lower than their trading range and couldn't add the blocks I looked for.... this week might be another great opportunity to add to mortgage back sector. Lot's of downgrades by analysts who don't really understand the sector should provide that opportunity. CIM has biggest upside potential but also has highest risk.

Traded in and out of EBIX calls

Sold NUS

ZSTN, KIRK and HITK all had banner weeks.

now sitting at less than 25% cash. and I increased my trailing stops from 7/8% to 5/6% to preserve more profits. A down draft is inevitable in this market and I think there are opportunities to buy even cheaper. VOlume in the markets are very low which makes this recent run up a little uneasy for me to sit comfortable.

I am also very uncomfortable with the lack of political will to address the debt problem and the affect on the markets will be profound. Raising taxes to spend more money is going impact growth.

good luck

 

[Jonleehacker]

Any thoughts on what is happening with NLY today?

Buying opp?

 

[BurnBright]

I can't say if it is a buying opp but the CEO stated that their may be volatility in the in the payouts by the delinquent-loan programs of the government which is the reason for the higher payouts. This was in the dividend announcement. Randall knows the opperations better then me, I do not own shares but do know that the management of NLY is respected in the business.

 

[randallg99]

Any thoughts on what is happening with NLY today?

Buying opp?

sorry about late response. was in discussions all day and spent very little time at the computer.

the dividend announcement shocked me. The mortgage back securities are in a real sweet spot because the yield curve is very favorable but there's always a monkey wrench thrown in.

that said, there are other elements affecting their business model that I really didn't expect. Quantitative Easing and other government intervention methods. changes the entire paradigm and heavily affects their operations. Things are different this time.

Apparently there were one time events of GSEs buying back their debt from NLY thus taking potential revenue stream NLY's books.

here's an analyst report that shines a lot of insight:

https://jefferies.bluematrix.com/docs/html/84188.html


just read Fitch's rained on Portugal's party and dropped it's rating. Look for more flight to American securities and bonds.

Good luck to us all.

 

[Jonleehacker]

Talked about stock picks, proven and strongly suggested!
change dot word to a dot symbol and paste this Link in your browser

[badstocks dot info]

Can we pull out the ban hammer and rid ourselves of the Stephen Kid disease please

 

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[randallg99]

hi, I hope everyone is doing well. Now that I have something to share that can help others make money....

I've been busy with a million and one projects so I've taken steps to eliminate as many distractions as possible. I've frequented the forum quite a bit and would like to see more discussions regarding equities markets. It's probably the easiest way to turn that 3k into 1mm. Not that obtaining 1mm in profits is ever easy, but reality is that it can be done with the least amount of effort compared to opening businesses and operating real estate properties.

Part of my 2010 goal (which I listed here last year but cannot find the posting) was to achieve a weekly income from the stock market. I did not quite get there as I underperformed the markets terribly. My 2010 portfolio only creeped up 5% for the whole year, with all of the gains coming in December. So yeah, 2010 was a very long dreadful year of investing in equities.

I spent a few hours at my desk shortly after thanksgiving to evaluate my mistakes. There were a few, but would you know that about 75% of the stocks I sold or got stopped out are currently higher today? As a matter of fact, couple of them are over 100% higher. My main mistake was simply selling them too soon. I have even written about their potential on this forum yet I sold them! I had the conviction to buy the company but lacked stomach to handle the gyrations. The volatility was simply too much for me to handle and after suffering severe losses in real estate and in my businesses, I spent a lot of effort preserving my capital instead of growing it. This defensive stance cost me a lot of opportunity.

But now, my mindset changed and I realized that I should have been much more aggressive to accumulate money, especially with the stock market and I am using strategies that I used years ago. I am buying more calls, selling naked puts and buying puts.

Most of my gains are coming from buying call options. I can elaborate later on my strategy but here are some basic rules I follow:

1. I keep the options combined value under 20% of my total portfolio
2. buy in-the-money at least 2 months out.
3. I will usually sell half the position before an earnings announcement
4. If I hold the calls through an earnings announcement, I buy short term puts equal to half the open call position
5. I follow IBD's stocks on the move and look for "cup and handle formations"
6. For those times I violate the above rules, I hold the position for no longer than 2 weeks.

Regarding stock holdings, about 40% of my port is energy related - mostly oil and drilling.

YTD return through end of day 2/11/2011: +14.82%

Good Luck.

current positions (and size in percentage in relation to rest of portfolio):

MDNNF 0.53%
NG 3.13%
CYS 7.41%
ARR 2.87%
CNQ 4.78%
FRO 5.77%
MVO 4.04%
MS 1.64%
CVI 2.11%
WTSLA 1.30%
MKTX 2.34%
MAIN 4.24%
VRX 4.42%
VNR 6.84%
SDRL 7.81%
UFPT 6.71%
WNR Mar 19 2011 11.0 Call 1.00%
BAC Jan 21 2012 10.0 Call 2.86%
JPM Apr 16 2011 41.0 Call 1.95%
AAPL Mar 19 2011 330.0 Call 3.21%
MOS Jun 18 2011 70.0 Call 2.15%
HES May 21 2011 72.5 Call 2.22%
C Mar 19 2011 3.0 Call 1.02%
C Jan 21 2012 2.5 Call 0.80%
YHOO Mar 19 2011 17.0 Call 0.96%
NG Feb 19 2011 14.0 Call 0.48%
CCME Jun 18 2011 20.0 Call 0.14%
JAG Mar 19 2011 7.5 Call 0.00%


here are the closed positions since Jan 1, 2011 and their respective gains: (refineries being the biggest winners)

Description Gain(%)
AAPL Feb 19 2011 320.0 Call 35.59
AAPL Jan 22 2011 330.0 Call 10.91
ACH Feb 19 2011 24.0 Call (67.35)
AMERICAN CAPITAL AGENCY COR (AGNC) 11.48
AVP Jan 22 2011 32.0 Call (99.57)
CAT Feb 19 2011 100.0 Call 36.24
CAT Feb 19 2011 100.0 Call 40.72
FIRST NIAGARA FINANCIAL GRO (FNFG) 1.88
HOC Mar 19 2011 41.0 Call 163.18
HOC Mar 19 2011 41.0 Call 166.18
HOC Mar 19 2011 41.0 Call 214.07
IBM Feb 19 2011 150.0 Call 130.78
ANNALY CAPITAL MGMT INC (NLY) 1.34
PATRIOT COAL CORP (PCX) (12.42)
PCX Feb 19 2011 25.0 Put 15.39
PAREXEL INTL CORP (PRXL) (9.34)
SVM Jun 18 2011 11.0 Call (57.71)
SKYWORKS SOLS INC (SWKS) 53.04
UTX Feb 19 2011 80.0 Call 12.00
WNR Mar 19 2011 11.0 Call 109.17

 

[Rickson9]

Good luck!

For those interested in another method of investing they can read about my adventures in the equitites markets on my website which is located in my sig.

Best regards!

 

[Guest3722A]

CCME Jun 18 2011 20.0 Call 0.14%

If you weren't already aware, CCME apparently has accounting issues and lawsuits.

53 Days Left - Kahn Swick & Foti, LLC and Former Louisiana Attorney General Remind Investors With Large Financial Interests | TradingMarkets.com

Just a heads up!

 

[randallg99]

If you weren't already aware, CCME apparently has accounting issues and lawsuits.

53 Days Left - Kahn Swick & Foti, LLC and Former Louisiana Attorney General Remind Investors With Large Financial Interests | TradingMarkets.com

Just a heads up!

the stock has been on a roller coaster and it's been gut wrenching.... the negative press seems to have been conjured by shorts with access to a lot of press (Muddy Waters and Mike Citron)

the other side of the coin is there are a couple of shrewd, large investors who are largely invested (Hank Greenburg is one) and I would think they've done a lot more DD than the small short outfits.

The company has done a lousy job refuting serious allegations, but I don't know the real story...

Typically on a stock beaten down like this I will sell out, but this may be worth waiting for the outcome

This is the chance when buying Chinese securities as discussed earlier in this thread.

 

[Guest3722A]

Gutsy to say the least! I'll definitely be rootin' for you on this one. I've been bucked off of CCME a few times myself! Have you looked at potash lately? 3:1 coming up in a couple days.

 

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[randallg99]

Gutsy to say the least! I'll definitely be rootin' for you on this one. I've been bucked off of CCME a few times myself! Have you looked at potash lately? 3:1 coming up in a couple days.

interesting you mention POT.... I've been looking to expand into fertilizers again. I did very well with POT some time ago. Here is current port as of today around 2pm.

the CCME position has violated all of my rules, so at this point I am waiting to see what happens before making a final decision. If I followed my rules, I would have sold it weeks ago.... but I have until June to find out if it pays off or not.

heavier this week into refineries. Until oil pricing trend changes, I will continue to stay long .

I have some stink bids on a couple of low volume stocks.

do your DD before investing. Just because i have these in my port does not make them "buys" in yours.... good luck all.

my port is:
YTD +17.49% including cash
YTD +23.42% without cash holdings
vs S&P +6.54%


MDNNF0.51%NG3.26%FRO5.93%MVO4.18%MS1.71%CNQ5.32%WTSLA1.32%CVI2.38%MKTX2.41%MAIN4.36%VNR6.91%VRX4.52%SDRL8.23%UFPT7.02%WNR Mar 19 2011 11.0 Call1.56%JPM Apr 16 2011 41.0 Call2.35%BAC Jan 21 2012 10.0 Call2.95%AAPL Mar 19 2011 330.0 Call3.41%HES May 21 2011 72.5 Call2.90%GLBL Mar 19 2011 7.5 Call1.17%MOS Jun 18 2011 70.0 Call2.06%C Mar 19 2011 3.0 Call1.07%C Jan 21 2012 2.5 Call0.83%POT Jun 18 2011 165.0 Call3.04%WFC Jan 21 2012 25.0 Call2.00%ILMN Mar 19 2011 70.0 Call0.91%CCME Jun 18 2011 20.0 Call0.29%JAG Mar 19 2011 7.5 Call0.00%CASH17.40%total100.00%

 

[randallg99]

hopefully I properply formatted the list for easy viewing. I've made a couple of minor changes during the last 10 trading days due to vomitting after a couple of trading days. The swoons have been absolutely unreal and I am taking steps to limit the volatility in the port.

1 - I eliminated some of my stop loss limit orders to avoid getting blown out. With options, it's hard to get back in if a stop loss kicks in. I've used trigger alerts on the underlying stock price to notify me via email if a stock hits a certain level at which time I'll evaluate the option. This keeps a strong focus on the stock which is where the attention is required.

2 - I trimmed some of my VNR and SDRL. They've been stellar holdings, but taking up a lot of portfolio. They spit out fantastic dividends so they're worth keeping. I've had each for a few years. This is what winners look like and this is what you always want to keep in the portfolio. Solid, growing companies. (shame all of my holdings aren't this pretty)


Seadrill Limited Ordinary Share Stock Chart | SDRL Interactive Chart - Yahoo! Finance


Vanguard Natural Resources LLC Stock Chart | VNR Interactive Chart - Yahoo! Finance

3 - I got spooked out of UFPT in the $18 area and would like to buy back (it's around $17 now)

4 - For trading ideas, I signed up for Gorilla Trades. I have executed a couple of trades. One of which I mistakenly added too many shares by accidentally hitting the wrong key... this was a serious error on my part and could have been devestating. Obviously I will be trimming that position (MANT)

5 - lot's of talk about the "oil" crisis. I think it's too early for any soap box predictions so I'm simply going for the ride. My portfolio is about 45% energy which is consistent with my theme of a global dependence. Libya is a non-factor (but don't tell the speculators that) It's Saudi Arabia that holds the key to oil's future pricing.

6 - I am limiting my risk by buying more deeper in the money calls with longer strikes. Again, reiterating my strategy, I want to buy calls that overlap at least one earnings announcement.

7 - up 9.87% for the year vs. S&P +4.97% .... I took a tremendous hit last week with a couple of my tech holdings. But still squeaked out a gain in February.

Good Luck everyone.

MDNNF 0.53%
NUS 3.67%
MINI 3.97%
MANT 5.14%
WTSLA 2.84%
MVO 4.69%
CNQ 5.99%
MAIN 4.56%
VRX 4.67%
VNR 7.46%
SDRL 8.72%
GLBL Mar 19 2011 7.5 Call 1.52%
CVI Apr 16 2011 15.0 Call 1.97%
HES May 21 2011 72.5 Call 3.07%
JPM Apr 16 2011 41.0 Call 1.72%
MOS Jun 18 2011 70.0 Call 2.04%
CAT Apr 16 2011 105.0 Call 1.05%
SSO Mar 19 2011 51.0 Call 0.93%
C Jan 21 2012 2.5 Call 0.74%
VLO Jun 18 2011 27.0 Call 0.80%
WFC Jan 21 2012 25.0 Call 1.91%
C Mar 19 2011 3.0 Call 0.90%
SLB Mar 19 2011 95.0 Call 0.29%
GOOG Mar 19 2011 610.0 Call 0.69%
POT Jun 18 2011 55.0 Call 2.95%
VLO Mar 19 2011 32.0 Call 0.33%
CCME Jun 18 2011 20.0 Call 0.15%
JAG Mar 19 2011 7.5 Call 0.00%
FNFG Mar 19 2011 15.0 Call 0.00%
MFEBX 0.00%
MMUBX 0.00%
MMUFX 0.92%
MWOBX 0.01%
CASH 25.77%
TOTAL 100.00%