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Secure Bitcoin Trading Bot

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millerad

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In some of my spare time, while we are getting another project developed. I started working on something for personal use. I have been a part of bitcoin since 2013 when it was around $300 a coin.
Now that the market is highly volatile and there is a higher interest in it than before, I decided to start working on a trading bot that would beat the natural gain of bitcoin in the 2-4 Week range. I am a python programmer and I knew that GDAX(Coinbase) had an API that I could easily write to. So I started capturing market data every minute and then backtesting, I tried hundreds(if not thousands) of combinations. Finally I found a market analysis that would yield profits in the long run. More than the natural gain of bitcoin, and protect you if the floor drops out of it.

The site: www.aitrader.us

Right now, it is about 56% up in the last 25 days, where as bitcoin is up about 39% in the same period of time. Please let me know if you have any questions.
 
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Ill be honest, I know very little about crypto. Are you the first one doing this? If not, what makes you different from other trading bots?

Do you have this actively managing your wallet right now, is your own skin in the game?
 

millerad

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Ill be honest, I know very little about crypto. Are you the first one doing this? If not, what makes you different from other trading bots?

Do you have this actively managing your wallet right now, is your own skin in the game?
I have around $280 that the bot is trading for me right now. I know it's not a lot, but being a college student, it's a lot for me. Other than me, i have the bot trading about $3700 right now, split between 11 different accounts. After seeing bitcoin, and the bot's performance lately. I put every extra dollar I have into my GDAX account for Ai Trader to trade for me. There are other trading bots, but they are very complex to use and you need a deeper understanding of crypto to be able to use them easily.
 

Roulf

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That is a cool concept. I follow gdax from time to time. What is the base of your bot? Does it only analyse historical data or something live, like the order book or trade volume?

Sounds interesting, hope you can get more clients =)
 
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millerad

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That is a cool concept. I follow gdax from time to time. What is the base of your bot? Does it only analyse historical data or something live like the order book or trade volume?

Sounds interesting, hope you can get more clients =)
Ah, I tried to work with the order book or trade volume and build a machine learning model that would decide to buy or sell. Could only make a profit around 60% of the time. For this, I use historical price data and calculate market trends and then decide to buy or sell based on that. Has really worked out for me. It turns out that the simpler is better in this case.
 

TKDTyler

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While it is not a direct ad, this is a subcription service for $99/month. Shouldn't this be placed in the marketplace?

@millerad
If your system does work, I think it would be smarter to give the service for free and take your $99/month or % from profits. Minimize risk for investors and make it easier to enter the space.

Although there are a ton of questions. What are you going to do if the market crashes? Does your algorithm cover corner cases? What kind of testing have you done?
 

millerad

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@MJ DeMarco
While it is not a direct ad, this is a subcription service for $99/month. Shouldn't this be placed in the marketplace?

@millerad
If your system does work, I think it would be smarter to give the service for free and take your $99/month or % from profits. Minimize risk for investors and make it easier to enter the space.

Although there are a ton of questions. What are you going to do if the market crashes? Does your algorithm cover corner cases? What kind of testing have you done?
Wasn't sure quite where to put it. So I guess that's my bad.
Thought about that, but in order to trade securely; I would rather not touch the users money whatsoever. There is a lot of instability in the crypto world. One of my main focuses was to ensure the users that at any moment they could stop my bot's trading, and secure their funds. This way your money is as secure as GDAX(Coinbase).
As far as backtesting, I have been collecting data since the beginning of November every minute. I have around 40,000 data points for price. Every 30 minutes I run a backtesting script that tests 1000 possible inputs and displays the best values since we started collecting data. This is where the front page percentage comes from.
 
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TKDTyler

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Wasn't sure quite where to put it. So I guess that's my bad.
Thought about that, but in order to trade securely; I would rather not touch the users money whatsoever. There is a lot of instability in the crypto world. One of my main focuses was to ensure the users that at any moment they could stop my bot's trading, and secure their funds. This way your money is as secure as GDAX(Coinbase).
As far as backtesting, I have been collecting data since the beginning of November every minute. I have around 40,000 data points for price. Every 30 minutes I run a backtesting script that tests 1000 possible inputs and displays the best values since we started collecting data. This is where the front page percentage comes from.

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November is an anomaly for your testing as it has been bullish throughout the whole month. Although, it will happen a lot through the next couple years, there will be a ton of swings. Have you extrapolated your testing to sideways markets?

@James Fend does a ton of day trading. I think he may have better questions to validate this this than I do.
 

ApparentHorizon

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Finally I found a market analysis that would yield profits in the long run.

Ai Trader’s algorithm analyzes the bitcoin market every 4 hours and identifies the convergence of the 12 and 26 Day Exponential Moving Average. When the algorithm reads a buy signal, a call is sent to the GDAX API to buy the maximum amount of Bitcoin available in your account.

So EMA crossover? If the market goes sideways, you're screwed.
What's AI about it? Or is that just for the marketing?
Which AI learning algo is it based on? Is it a black box or are you able to analyze and direct it?
 

mike24601

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As we speak the first crypto index fund is about to launch in a few days. Only 0.5% fee per year, no minimum balance requirement, and a diversified portfolio of the top 20 cryptocurrencies. Tell us why someone might choose your service over the index fund?
 
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millerad

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November is an anomaly for your testing as it has been bullish throughout the whole month. Although, it will happen a lot through the next couple years, there will be a ton of swings. Have you extrapolated your testing to sideways markets?

@James Fend does a ton of day trading. I think he may have better questions to validate this this than I do.
We have seen a 3 day down trend this month. Which my bot used to widen the gap between it and the natural change in bitcoin. As the data base grows the best settings will change and the best settings will always come out on top.
 

millerad

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So EMA crossover? If the market goes sideways, you're screwed.
What's AI about it? Or is that just for the marketing?
Which AI learning algo is it based on? Is it a black box or are you able to analyze and direct it?
Originally I was doing the EMA crossover, but I did find that it would lose money in a sideways market. So I programmed the bot to hold in a sideways market so that It doesn't always place buys and sells. Ai is mostly for marketing, I did play with a couple different classification models, (Random Forest, Decision Tree) and then a ANN. I couldn't get anything that would hold profits though. Ended up with something simpler, but it does profit over the price of bitcoin.
Simply put, Ai Trader buys low, and sells high. You could simply do it yourself, but what if the market drops 20% between 3 and 4 A.M While you're sleeping? Then it turns around and runs up another 10%? Not only would you have lost your 20%, but you wouldn't have gained back the 10. Bitcoin is a 24 hour market. One cannot be up 24 hours a day watching the market and trading. I built Ai Trader so that you could invest your money in bitcoin, and go to sleep at night knowing that if the market falls out; you won't lose everything and you will be back in when it turns around.
Trading is easy if you're an emotionless robot and you can make unbiased decisions. You can't though, no one can say that they can with 100% honesty. My bot can though. It can make buying decisions, not based on fear or anxiety. It makes simple decisions based on technical analysis and math.
 

MrYoshi

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As we speak the first crypto index fund is about to launch in a few days. Only 0.5% fee per year, no minimum balance requirement, and a diversified portfolio of the top 20 cryptocurrencies. Tell us why someone might choose your service over the index fund?

Care to share where this crypto index fund is at?
 
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mike24601

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Care to share where this crypto index fund is at?

I was hesitant because I don't want to appear like I'm selling something. It is called Crypto20 and I have no position in it whatsoever, but I did read the prospectus and thought it was pretty interesting.
 

mike24601

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@millerad I do like your idea a lot though. I see a lot of promise here, especially since it seems the best way to make money in crypto is in trading, but it's also very difficult to chart for traditional investors because patterns emerge and die in days or even hours. As widespread adoption in this realm grows, passive investors will be clamoring for a hands-off system with good returns.
 

c4n

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I am sorry but I am always suspicious of people selling trading bots and/or strategies.

The old question comes to mind: if you really have a winning bot, why don't you keep it a secret, run the bot with all the money you can get your hands on and make gazillion dollars?

Why settle for $99 a month if you can outperform the market by 17% per month? That's 480% on your investment in a year!
 
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millerad

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I am sorry but I am always suspicious of people selling trading bots and/or strategies.

The old question comes to mind: if you really have a winning bot, why don't you keep it a secret, run the bot with all the money you can get your hands on and make gazillion dollars?

Why settle for $99 a month if you can outperform the market by 17% per month? That's 480% on your investment in a year!

Well, that's a good question. Why not put every extra dime that I have in the bot and then let other people use it for $99 a month. Then I will have more money to put into the bot and I will be able to make more money myself. Plus it's an oddly satisfying feeling when You see that someone deposited a couple thousand dollars into their trading account and it is up 10% in two days and they don't have to worry about the volatility of bitcoin.
 

c4n

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Well, that's a good question. Why not put every extra dime that I have in the bot and then let other people use it for $99 a month. Then I will have more money to put into the bot and I will be able to make more money myself. Plus it's an oddly satisfying feeling when You see that someone deposited a couple thousand dollars into their trading account and it is up 10% in two days and they don't have to worry about the volatility of bitcoin.

The thing is, with such returns, $99 is peanuts.

If many people use the same bot/strategy, it's effectiveness diminishes. If it really performs as you claim, it would only make sense to:
  1. sell everything you have + get as much credit as you have and run the bot yourself, or
    ...
    ...
    ...
    (no better alternative to #1 for a looong time)
    ...
    ...
    ...
  2. allow a limited number of others to join but take % of their earnings, not a flat fee

But, as others have pointed out, in such a bullish market anyone can make a profit easily...

Anyway, don't want to get in an argument here, just wanted to warn others about anyone claiming they are selling their hen that is laying golden eggs...
 

millerad

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The thing is, with such returns, $99 is peanuts.

If many people use the same bot/strategy, it's effectiveness diminishes. If it really performs as you claim, it would only make sense to:
  1. sell everything you have + get as much credit as you have and run the bot yourself, or
    ...
    ...
    ...
    (no better alternative to #1 for a looong time)
    ...
    ...
    ...
  2. allow a limited number of others to join but take % of their earnings, not a flat fee

But, as others have pointed out, in such a bullish market anyone can make a profit easily...

Anyway, don't want to get in an argument here, just wanted to warn others about anyone claiming they are selling their hen that is laying golden eggs...
Well, I appreciate your feedback. I do believe in my programming and the power of bitcoin though. I would be willing to let you try the site for a month or two for free. Just to change your mind if nothing else. Send me your email, I will set you up with a free account. You can start trading on GDAX with as little as .01 bitcoin.
 
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Vanderbilt

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could someone use this who is Trading with CFDs on Bitcoin?
 

Leigh Farrell

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As we speak the first crypto index fund is about to launch in a few days. Only 0.5% fee per year, no minimum balance requirement, and a diversified portfolio of the top 20 cryptocurrencies. Tell us why someone might choose your service over the index fund?
Got a name on that fund?
 
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James Fake

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Hmm... I tried to figure out the best way to add in my comment.

There are a few things that don't add up in all of this, sorry.

For one; stocks and crypto operate in two different ball games with different rules. Football and baseball both use balls & athletes, but pretty much entirely different. With that said; anyone purely basing trades using technical analysis signals designed for stock market is working against a huge handicap imo.

Stock trader using majority techniques used in stocks < Seasoned crypto trader < John Doe Wayne who bought a few Bitcoin & lost his Coinbase password & hasn't checked for years.

See here; even the order of the type of people who make the most money off crypto is "backwards" compared to anything we've ever came across.

The second; is what @ksc23 quoted. I think it's self-explanatory.

Sorry, just my take from the info provided... I could be very wrong.
 

millerad

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Hmm... I tried to figure out the best way to add in my comment.

There are a few things that don't add up in all of this, sorry.

For one; stocks and crypto operate in two different ball games with different rules. Football and baseball both use balls & athletes, but pretty much entirely different. With that said; anyone purely basing trades using technical analysis signals designed for stock market is working against a huge handicap imo.

Stock trader using majority techniques used in stocks < Seasoned crypto trader < John Doe Wayne who bought a few Bitcoin & lost his Coinbase password & hasn't checked for years.

See here; even the order of the type of people who make the most money off crypto is "backwards" compared to anything we've ever came across.

The second; is what @ksc23 quoted. I think it's self-explanatory.

Sorry, just my take from the info provided... I could be very wrong.


Not everyone who has been a part of bitcoin for several years is a millionaire now. I have always thought of bitcoin as a currency. Although now I understand it as more of an asset or commodity.
Hands down. I spent weeks hunched over a keyboard writing code, not talking to anyone with a single goal: Place buy and sell orders on the GDAX Exchange in such a fashion as to avoid the depths of the market and make a small percentage over time. I am only releasing Ai Trader now, because I feel as though I have done that. I know that my bot works, your belief in it does not effect me. I am just sharing one of my creations with the world. If anyone wants more information or to try out my bot for a while, Let me know. I give out free accounts all the time. I appreciate all of your feedback. I understand that criticism and skepticism is just a part of the game. Please let me know if you have any additional questions! I am happy to answer them.
 
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Thetaker24

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so this bot daytrades for you?
is it free? How much are the fees?

And why should we trust your bot then the other ones?

what is so secure about?

And is it always profit or can we lose money too?
 

millerad

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so this bot daytrades for you?
is it free? How much are the fees?

And why should we trust your bot then the other ones?

what is so secure about?

And is it always profit or can we lose money too?
As with anything in this world. Nothing is 100% If you bought your bitcoin today at 9960 and the floor fell out of the market, but you had your money trading with Ai Trader. You might lose ~10%. But it would buy as soon as the market turned around, and you would recapture your losses, and would make a profit over the natural market because you would have only suffered 10 of a possible 20% price swing that has happened in the past.
 

Thetaker24

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As with anything in this world. Nothing is 100% If you bought your bitcoin today at 9960 and the floor fell out of the market, but you had your money trading with Ai Trader. You might lose ~10%. But it would buy as soon as the market turned around, and you would recapture your losses, and would make a profit over the natural market because you would have only suffered 10 of a possible 20% price swing that has happened in the past.
so if i buy bitcoin for 10k and it goes down to 5k what then...? does it stop trading or what?

And how secure is it? Got any proof that you made profit with?
 
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TKDTyler

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If you're making those kinds of gains, why don't you take out a loan for 10k and let your bot trade it?

You'll be making far more than the interest you'd pay.
 

James Fake

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I appreciate all of your feedback. I understand that criticism and skepticism is just a part of the game.

Either way the bot goes; I do applaud you for having a millionaire's mindset. Whether this bot or the next idea, if you keep this same foundational thinking - you'll break through with something (especially as you have plenty of years post-college!)
 

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