Hey, Mike.
Been hired many times and done the hiring far more.
That range is pretty typical. You're not going to get it sorted much tighter because it depends far more on the individual dev or shop. Publish the work scope, get 10-15 quotes from seemingly trustworthy devs (however you want to judge that - my criteria will be different than yours), toss the tossers (anyone who doesn't answer the handful of specific questions you should always include), throw out the top and bottom 15%, average the rest and you'll be in the right ballpark.
Example
* $500, 750, 1000, 1000, 2500 (toss low bids)
* $5000, 6000, 6500, 7000, 8000, 10,000 = $7,000 average
* 12,500, 15,000, 25,000 (toss high bids)
$7,000 makes it pretty likely you'll get it finished in a reasonable amount of time without too much pain in suffering.
That approach has worked as well as anything else over the years for outsourcing. The variability comes from the same things as hiring any contractor: free time to fill, just finished something similar and can reuse it, knows a newer platform for knocking it out in 1/5 the time, already familiar with the API, overeager sales department, etc. Derek Sivers has a good post on hiring devs here: How to hire a programmer to make your ideas happen | Derek Sivers.
Personally, I always hire two candidates for larger projects, tell them it's a competition and see who does the best job on Phase 1. For something over $15K, I'd even consider starting with three decent candidates to pick an eventual winner. Obviously, that costs more $$$ upfront, but the time wasted with a bad hire followed by even more time to replace them is really painful especially when customers are waiting. Feel free to DM.
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