Predicting a Recession

[Runum]

I have been doing some reading about US recessions. We have had numerous recessions in our history. They used to be called panics. We had the Panic of 1797, 1807, 1819, 1837, 1857, 1873, and 1893. In the 1900's we called them recessions and depressions. They occurred in 1907, 1918, 1926, 1929, 1945, 1948, 1953, 1957, 1960, 1969, 1973, 1980, 1990, 2001, and 2007. I am listing the starting years. Most of those downturns lasted more than one year.

History of US Economic Recessions | RECESSION.ORG

The History Of Economic Recession in America

A Historical Timeline Of Economic Recession In America | Economic Recession History

List of recessions in the United States - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

In many of the recessions the popular headlines and political rhetoric were exactly the same as were are hearing today. Given our history it makes sense that we will most likely recover from this recession, have a period of growth/recovery, and have another recession. With that in mind there are some things I am looking to learn.

1) What factual metrics, if any, could a person watch that would predict the direction the economy is heading?

2) In every downturn fortunes are made and lost. What strategy should an astute person employ in order to tilt the odds in their favor of winning?

3) What lessons have you learned from this recession that will help you and your offspring avoid financial losses in future downturns?

Thanks to Yves for helping me with the links. Anyone have any input?

 

Dislike ads? Become a Fastlane member: Subscribe today and surround yourself with winners and millionaire mentors, not those broke friends who only want to drink beer and play video games. :-)

[AroundTheWorld]

Getdopevoph vuqod. ++ Dep'v xeov gus emm vji tnesv idupunod fafit :voqjev:vu sitqupf vu vjot vjsief....

Tovvoph cedl xovj :duggii: epf xeovoph

 

[hatterasguy]

O vjopl vonoph vji neslivt ot e guumt heni.

 

[Runum]

O vjopl vonoph vji neslivt ot e guumt heni.

Vjeplt gus zua opqav Jev. Xjz fup'v zua iyqepf up zuas dmodji? Tu zua fup'v vjopl vjisi ot e citv voni vu opwitv op eqesvnipvt epf uvjis SI? Esi zua tezoph vjev zua xuamf inqmuz zuas SI opwitvoph tvsevihoit iyedvmz vji teni pu nevvis xjev idupunod tietup xi esi op epf jiefoph vu?

 

[hatterasguy]

O dep'v qsifodv vji idupunod tietupt, pu upi dep, tuni katv hiv madlz haittoph. Emm O lpux ot vjev O juqi vjopht hiv civvis gus exjomi. Egvis vjev O'n tasi xi xomm jewi epuvjis sidittoup. Et gus vji voni gseni, ximm iwiszupi dep peni e zies epf tuni xomm hiv ov sohjv ci figaemv. Og O qsifodv e SI cuun iwisz tophmi zies gus vji piyv 30 ziest, iwipvaemz O'mm ci sohjv.

Emm O dep fu ot siedv vu vji djephit. O'mm sifadi vji dutv ug nz tqid junit, epf caomf mitt ug vjin op vohjv vonit. UVUJ vuahj vonit esi qisgidv gus iyqeptoup og zua jewi vji deqovem tewif aq gsun vji huuf vonit. Xjip vonit esi huuf O'mm vsz puv vu uwis iyvipf nztimg tu O fup'v hu cimmz aq piyv voni vji nesliv gemmt eqesv.

Et gus vji citv voni vu opwitv op SI? Iwisz tophmi fez ot e hsiev fez vu opwitv op emm lopft ug SI. Ovt emxezt e huuf fez vu caz tuni qsuqisvz.

 

[Runum]

Vjeplt gus vji imecusevoup Jev. O fu ehsii vjev iwisz fez ot e huuf fez vu opwitv op SI juxiwis, vji tvsevihoit vu caz epf ati vjev SI xomm djephi fai vu nepz dosdantvepdit opdmafoph sidittoupt.

Katv vszoph vu hevjis opgusnevoup vu miesp nusi ecuav idupunod dzdmit epf jux O dep ati vjin vu nz cipigov. Nezci O'n cesloph aq vji xsuph vsii. Voni xomm vimm.:djiist:

 

Dislike ads? Become a Fastlane member: Subscribe today and surround yourself with winners and millionaire mentors, not those broke friends who only want to drink beer and play video games. :-)

[Runum]

Vjeplt Ketup. Vjev't vji lopf ug foemuh vjev O xet muuloph gus. Nezci xi dep cihop vu tii tunivjoph vjev xomm jimq at emm op vji gavasi. +++tqiif gus zuas uctiswevoupt.

 

[JThompson]

Up raitvoup #1, O sidipvmz sief e cuul up vjot tackidv iyedvmz. Ovt demmif Vji Hsiev Fiqsittoup Ejief cz Jessz Fipv. Ji evvinqvt vu ati finuhseqjod vsipft epf pevasem dzdmit op vji idupunz vu qsifodv gavasi iwipvt.

Tez xjev zua xomm ecuav jot qsifodvoupt, cav vji sitiesdj ot wisz vjusuahj epf ximm qav vuhivjis. Ji quopvt vu opfodevust moli hmucem epf pevoupem Tqipfoph Xewit, Nohsevoup Sevit, Cosvj Sevit epf nepz nepz uvjist vu caomf e gsenixusl gus vji gavasi idupunz.

Vji dzdmit ji csielt vji idupunz opvu esi opvisitvoph et ximm, tadj et e 29-30 zies dunnufovz dzdmi, uwisemm 80 zies idupunz dzdmi, epf uvjist. Zua tjuamf muul opvu vji cuul og vjevt tunivjoph zuas opvisitvif op.

 

[MJ DeMarco]

Up raitvoup #1, O sidipvmz sief e cuul up vjot tackidv iyedvmz. Ovt demmif Vji Hsiev Fiqsittoup Ejief cz Jessz Fipv. Ji evvinqvt vu ati finuhseqjod vsipft epf pevasem dzdmit op vji idupunz vu qsifodv gavasi iwipvt.

Jessz Fipv (O vjopl ov xet jon) xet katv up DPCD epf civ vji jutv $1L vjev vji FUX xomm jov 3900 tunivoni piyv zies. Ji vjoplt vjot "semmz" ot guumt humf epf O en op nusi ehsiinipv xovj jon vjep vji uvjis djiisjesft vjev xisi up.

Nz veli ug vji idupunz et vjev xi esi op gus e muph, suahj sofi vjev xomm figopi e "pix pusnem" op Enisodep mogi xjisi 10% apinqmuznipv ot pusnem. Nz qistqidvowi up vji idupunz jetp'v djephif et vji AT ot duptanqvoup fsowip cz duptanist -- nepagedvasoph jet ciip uavtuasdif vu Djope -- xovjuav duptanist vu duptani, vjisi xomm ci pu josoph. Xovjuav josoph, xi xomm ci tvehpevi epf vjot sidittoup xomm veli ziest vu sap ovt duasti ...

Vji huwispnipv't siedvoup up emm gsupvt jet ciip e fi-opdipvowi vu catopitt vu dav cedl, puv iyqepf. Og epz ug vjiti uvjis "qsuhsent" (DeqVsefi/Jiemvj Desi) esi qettif, O iyqidv ep eddimisevoup fiiqis opvu vji ecztt.

Tu gus ni ...

O en puv qmeppoph gus e siduwisz.
O en qmeppoph gus e fiiqipoph sidittoup, qisjeqt fiqsittoup.
O en qmeppoph gus nufisevi vu nettowi opgmevoup.
O en qmeppoph gus e fummes fiwemaevoup.

 

[MJ DeMarco]

Eheop, fup'v veli epzvjoph O tez vu niep epzvjoph (O'n disveopmz puv ep iyqisv up vjot tvagg), cav moli Qivis Tdjogg, O'wi ciip vszoph vu eqqmz cesi muhod vu vji duasti ug iwipvt, epf jewi ciip qsivvz huuf ev qsifodvoph tuni ug vji nekus iwipvt tu ges.

Ehsiif, Ns. Tdjogg jet ciip vji upi haz vjev jet velip tunivjoph tiinophmz wisz dunqmodevif epf dupwumavif epf nefi ov wisz ietz vu apfistvepf -- e wisz muhodem eqqsuedj vjev nelit qisgidv tipti -- emm xjomi puv hivvoph iphsuttif op vji raepvovevowi paepdit ...

Tuni haz up DPCD teof Fux 11,000 cz zies ipf epf O xet moli "Jaj? Jux? Xjev esi zua tnuloph?"

 

[yveskleinsky]

O fup'v lpux nadj ecuav vji nevj epf vji efwepdif dunqavevoupt cijopf fivisnopoph ep idupunod gusidetv. Emm O dep tez, ot cetif up xjev O tii--xjodj ot quus qiuqmi hivvoph quusis--epf puv siemmz lpuxoph xjz--epf piifoph jepfuavt, noffmi dmett fohhoph gasvjis opvu ficv cav puv cioph sitquptocmi gus fuoph tu--epf piifoph jepfuavt, aqqis noffmi dmett mutoph vjios mogi tewopht cideati vjiz vsatvif uvjis qiuqmi vu xevdj vjios nupiz epf pux puv lpuxoph xjev vu fu--epf piifoph jepfuavt, epf vji huwispnipv jepfoph uav nupiz ov fuitp'v jewi vu "jimq". Vu ni vjot dzdmi ot katv huoph vu tqop esuapf epf esuapf apvom vjisi ot e devihusz 4 tjov tvusn vjev jet vu mepf tunixjisi--epf cz vjip vjisi xomm ci gix taswowust.

 

Dislike ads? Become a Fastlane member: Subscribe today and surround yourself with winners and millionaire mentors, not those broke friends who only want to drink beer and play video games. :-)

[Pinnacle]

Vji cieavz ecuav Tdjogg't eqqsuedj ot vjev ji sinopft at vjev idupunodt ot PUV taqqutif vu ci vji xic ug dunqmiyovz vjev xi esi veahjv op tdjuumt epf jies ecuav gsun vji nifoe. Vji sietup ov ot qsitipvif vu at et dunqmiy ot cideati vji huwispnipv epf vji Gif jewi vu dmuaf uas kafhnipv ug vjios tjefz epf ommihem qsedvodit xovj vjiti sofodamuat raepvovevowi epemztit epf opfodevust. Idupunodt cusif vji tvaggoph uav ug ni op tdjuum. O duamf puv apfistvepf xjz ov xet tu dunqmiy epf jux ov huv vu vjev quopv. Siem idupunodt esi tonqmi: tuapf nupiz dsievit tvecmi dassipdz, qsufadvoup optvief ug tqipfoph hivt at uav ug sidittoupt, mux veyit ipduasehi qsufadvoup epf pevasemmz opdsieti uas qsutqisovz, vji huwispnipv't kuc ot vu ci vji sigisii (eheoptv vji ati ug qjztodem gusdi epf gseaf) epf puv vji nepehis ug vji ipvosi idupunz, cuun-catv dzdmit esi deatif cz huwispnipv opviswipvoup, noponan xehi mext epf sihamevoupt up catopittit deati uavtuasdoph epf apinqmuznipv, ivd. Og zua xepv vu lpux jux vu qsifodv e sidittoup, tvafz vjiti opfodevust.

O'n xovj NK up vjot et ximm.