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Luck shouldn't play such a big role in financial success

WJK

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But isn't 20% a good value? I mean if we look at this list: List of countries by percentage of population living in poverty - Wikipedia
and then sort by $1.90 or $3.20 or $5.50 (percent of people living on less than), Belgium is always near the top 10(least amount of people living on less than).

Obviously one have to get other sources as well, but it doesn't seem like a bad value at all.
Humans have always had a portion of our population in poverty, criminals, sexual deviants, suffering from health issues, etc.
 

WJK

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I've been thinking about this thread for a bit. I don't like the premise, and here's why:

The conclusion anyone on this thread reaches comes directly from the assumptions and worldview they started with. That doesn't make for a discussion that leads to increased knowledge.

If you think luck plays a big role in people's outcomes, then you'll find that it does. If you think luck plays a small role and people's actions play a big one, you'll find that that is true also. You'll arrange the facts and your narrative to fit your assumptions.

This topic is WAY too complex for anyone besides an omniscient being to make sense of. How do you correctly define the amount of impact any set of inputs have on life outcomes? You can't. No one on earth is smart enough.

So, what related topic would make for a useful discussion? How about this: "What worldview results in better life outcomes?" That is something that can be studied and discussed. The results of that new knowledge can help you pick the better path.

There's a bunch of social science research that shows that people with an increased sense of agency (ability to influence things in their life: "I make my own luck" kind of people) have far superior life outcomes compared to people who think everything is luck based.

So, which worldview do you want to adopt?
I am not sure that it is one or the other. Making something happen is like pushing a car that is at a standstill. It's hard to get it rolling. Once you do, it's a lot easier to push. I've found that once I get started on a business or a project that I become attractive to Lady Luck -- I become uber lucky. I not saying that everything goes right for me. But, I am saying that the bumps in the road aren't as hard to roll over. (I have a plan for almost all of them since they are expected. They are part of playing the game.) And, as I go further, I develop more magnetism for good luck and fortunate events. I really, really, really count & glorify those golden moments of good fortune. Maybe it's just that I pay attention to the wins and I deeply discount the problems...
 
G

Guest-5ty5s4

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I've been thinking about this thread for a bit. I don't like the premise, and here's why:

The conclusion anyone on this thread reaches comes directly from the assumptions and worldview they started with. That doesn't make for a discussion that leads to increased knowledge.

If you think luck plays a big role in people's outcomes, then you'll find that it does. If you think luck plays a small role and people's actions play a big one, you'll find that that is true also. You'll arrange the facts and your narrative to fit your assumptions.

This topic is WAY too complex for anyone besides an omniscient being to make sense of. How do you correctly define the amount of impact any set of inputs have on life outcomes? You can't. No one on earth is smart enough.

So, what related topic would make for a useful discussion? How about this: "What worldview results in better life outcomes?" That is something that can be studied and discussed. The results of that new knowledge can help you pick the better path.

There's a bunch of social science research that shows that people with an increased sense of agency (ability to influence things in their life: "I make my own luck" kind of people) have far superior life outcomes compared to people who think everything is luck based.

So, which worldview do you want to adopt?

I think the whole topic is a waste of time.

Luck or not, you control what you can and you don’t what you can’t.

Yes, even trying to “flip society upside down” or whatever is still taking matters into your own hands and performing “hard work.” That’s why the topic is bullshit and mostly a waste of time.

End of story.
 
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runnaboi

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I could say that I have had a run of bad luck. My dads business went bust with my life savings tied up in it before I was 20. Also in my 20s I got cancer and the treatment is still stuffing me up.
Right now I am not in a very good place as far as 2 of the "f"s go (fitness and freedom), but it's not because of luck, it's because of some bad choices I made and not responding to circumstances better.
It's really empowering, because I know things are going to drastically change for the better as I am now making some great, hard choices.
 

ucantseeme3d

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Like the title says, i think luck plays a far too strong role in achieving financial success. I argue that the people at the very top are almost always there because of conditions they couldn't influence:

1. being born in a first world country
2. having a healthy body
3. having a healthy mind
4. access to good infrastructure
5. accesss to good education
6. equality of opportunity
7. people who support you with money and experience

I know hard work is necessary, but take one of these factors out of the equation and it's very likely that you won't achieve financial success in your life.
I also believe, that the first 3 reasons are pure chance, 4 + 5 + 6 are the responsibility of governments and 7 is the responsibility of your parents.

Now, i have an idea for a nonprofit organisation which could solve number 7. This organisation uses an online platform, where people share their life situation and their goal in order to find someone who supports them with their experience and maybe their money. So people who are highly motivated and willing to work hard but don't have parents with a gold mine could find some sort of mentor who knows about their life situation and they can work together until the goals is achieved.

I don't know if money should be involved since it would attract a lot of scammers but maybe it is possible with a milestone system, just like Upwork, where you get some money after you achieved the milestone.

So what do you think? Good idea, bad idea? Did i miss something?

First off its a bad idea, it will be exploited very easily, a lot of background research will have to be done to make sure a "participant" is valid

You are going to get negative responses and people saying you are "downplaying" effort because this is a harsh reality most people don't want to accept

Human societies and the economies that lie therein are an example of "art" imitating nature, well more like "following the direction" than "imitating", imitation implies there's an alternative. Its more like water running through a river, it has no choice but to flow in the direction and through the path laid out that is shaped by reality (by its surroundings)

Think about it, everything in life is a roll of the dice, everything that will make you YOU was decided for you at conception and then further during development in the uterus and the womb

Household
Race
Sex
IQ
Potential
Physical Capabilities
Mental Capabilities
Defects
Allergies
Genetic Diseases
Etc

I remember there was this guy in class who I could never beat in an exam, I remember studying rigorously and telling my friends in the next exam I will beat him or atleast get the same score, well we both know what happened (I didn't beat him nor get a similar score), but why it happened is important.

I asked him how he studies and how often, he told me he barely studies at all, come to find out he just has photographic memory!. With no effort at all he could beat everyone, just coasting through life. He went on to do medical studies and is probably a doctor or something by now, all because of a random roll of the dice that resulted in his genetics.

It would not have mattered how hard I studied, my potential was decided long ago. Even if I spent a ridiculous amount of time studying and beat him once, so what, he could just now put in 25% of my effort and beat me, and either way it would make no difference in the gap of our potential and the path in life he was on. I'd be clinging to some random test I beat him on as a coping mechanism while he moves on to becoming a doctor lol.

The only way for a regular person to be successful in life, is to not stay on the same course as those who are born special, those who are born gifted or talented. They can afford to follow the rules and just follow a basic path in life and still achieve great success.

Those of us that are normal or even below average, have to find loopholes, exploits, even "cheats". There's no point "playing fair" in a world that was never fair to begin with, fairness is an illusion, order is an illusion.
 
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sparechange

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I wonder with the current political climate if it's even going to be possible to operate a small business in the near future.. currently it's illegal to even have a small biz open in certain parts of Canada :wideyed:

See ya at the bread and soup lineup, they even have left over cake from last week!
 
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ucantseeme3d

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I would argue in fact the opposite of your argument. I think that living in a 1st world country decreases your chances of achieving financial success because you have to face less adversity.
1. I might be wrong here, but I'm pretty sure there are more millionaires in first world countries than third world countries (when measured by the amount and the percentage too)

2. Imagine if you applied this logic to physical disabilities and becoming an athlete. Do you know how ridiculous this line sounds?

Its common sense that adversity impedes success not increases its likelihood. You (and many others) are watching too many movies. For every success story you know of where someone "overcame adversity" there are thousands of failures who never tasted success because of adversity
 

WJK

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First off its a bad idea, it will be exploited very easily, a lot of background research will have to be done to make sure a "participant" is valid

You are going to get negative responses and people saying you are "downplaying" effort because this is a harsh reality most people don't want to accept

Human societies and the economies that lie therein are an example of "art" imitating nature, well more like "following the direction" than "imitating", imitation implies there's an alternative. Its more like water running through a river, it has no choice but to flow in the direction and through the path laid out that is shaped by reality (by its surroundings)

Think about it, everything in life is a roll of the dice, everything that will make you YOU was decided for you at conception and then further during development in the uterus and the womb

Household
Race
Sex
IQ
Potential
Physical Capabilities
Mental Capabilities
Defects
Allergies
Genetic Diseases
Etc

I remember there was this guy in class who I could never beat in an exam, I remember studying rigorously and telling my friends in the next exam I will beat him or atleast get the same score, well we both know what happened (I didn't beat him nor get a similar score), but why it happened is important.

I asked him how he studies and how often, he told me he barely studies at all, come to find out he just has photographic memory!. With no effort at all he could beat everyone, just coasting through life. He went on to do medical studies and is probably a doctor or something by now, all because of a random roll of the dice that resulted in his genetics.

It would not have mattered how hard I studied, my potential was decided long ago. Even if I spent a ridiculous amount of time studying and beat him once, so what, he could just now put in 25% of my effort and beat me, and either way it would make no difference in the gap of our potential and the path in life he was on. I'd be clinging to some random test I beat him on as a coping mechanism while he moves on to becoming a doctor lol.

The only way for a regular person to be successful in life, is to not stay on the same course as those who are born special, those who are born gifted or talented. They can afford to follow the rules and just follow a basic path in life and still achieve great success.

Those of us that are normal or even below average, have to find loopholes, exploits, even "cheats". There's no point "playing fair" in a world that was never fair to begin with, fairness is an illusion, order is an illusion.
Years ago I raised two boys. (Their mother abandoned them and I was living with man who had been their stepfather.) They were "throw away" kids -- born to a Cholo (Mexican bad guy) and a run away teenager on the streets of Los Angeles. Both were FASA (fetal alcohol syndrome) kids. Their mother drank & used drugs when she was pregnant with them. The older boy had serious brain damage. He loved computers and it the early days of that type of equipment. He couldn't write very easily -- but, he could type. And he loved to take things apart. In time, he learned to put them back together. I used to remind him all the time that everyone is given a special gift. We just had to find his. Today he is in his late 40s and he's able to live independently. He still loves electronics -- his special gift.
 
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Ing

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A friend who is unemployed and lives frugally from some small savings says:
there is some percentage of people living as unemployed. So thats my part in society.

admittedly he is not living on Gouvernements cost. so this statement skews the truth a bit: that he worked hard decades and has retired early For a slowlane life.
 

ZahScr

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We're part of a complex system and unless we want to kill off life, luck is always going to play a role. Luck even plays a bigger role than we like to admit.

Anyways, I think the value in your idea (at least from the perspective of the person that's receiving aid) is that it increases their exposure to potentially "getting lucky" and it's one more avenue they can use to try to better their situation.

Hope you can find a way to make it happen
 

fastlanedoll

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I've written about this in several threads over the years...

If you're young and want a great opportunity at $5-10M, there's a pretty clear formula for getting a degree, going to Silicon Valley and finding the right startup. I wrote about this a few years ago on this forum, and still think this is the best way to make a lot of money with relatively little risk over a reasonable (10-15 years) period of time.

For those that wouldn't be interested in going this route, if you're smart, disciplined and willing to work hard, there are some pretty clear formulas for accumulating cash from nothing and then compounding it. It's not hard to make well into the 7-figures over a 5-10 year period (and potentially much more, if you're lucky).

It mostly requires hard work and discipline.

The "formula" is basically just creating a flow of active income by starting a low-risk business. Grow that active income by growing the business, building additional businesses, or using the cash flow to acquire other businesses that are already generating cash.

Then take that active income and plow it into cash flowing assets to compound growth. This works especially well in an inflationary environment like what we've seen the past 20 years in this country, and likely to continue to see.

If you can create a business that's throwing off low 6-figures per year (which isn't too difficult if you know what you're doing), you should have no problem growing your net worth to mid- to upper-7 figures within 10 years without much extra work or risk.

Btw, I like real estate, but anyone who thinks it's possible to make a LOT of money with real estate investing without having an additional source of active income is fooling themselves. Real estate is a great way to grow/compound wealth, but not a great way to build wealth.

Build a low-risk business (or several businesses) to generate income, and then use real estate to compound.

Thanks!
I've got a high paying job, which I think is good for funding real estate.

Graham Stephan says ~95-98% of properties won't be cash flowing :(
What's the best way, in your opinion, to source out the ones who do? Is it really as simple as seeking out rundown properties in a good location then fixing them up? XD

Thanks!!
 
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Madame Peccato

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The fact that any of us is alive and able to post on here is enough luck that it looks more like a miracle. Somehow the big bang happened, the dinosaurs went extinct, some monkeys started walking on two legs and developed a pre-frontal brain cortex, they then understood they could create fire out of "nothing", they invented writing, they figured out how to cultivate the earth, they created wonderful civilizations, they spread through the world, they fought in countless wars, and somehow I happened to come to the world in this specific time period, reading on an internet forum about how luck plays a role in our life.

The whole universe is about randomness (or chaos, if you prefer a more scientific-friendly term), BUT you can do your best to influence the outcome of the randomness. Think of a slot machine but you can actually manipulate the results to some extent.

Do it for long enough and you might just be able to win...you might not win the biggest payout at your first attempt, but it will teach you that you are, in fact, able to partially control the slot machine.

Do it 10000000000000 times, if you still don't strike gold, you have been unlucky, THEN you will be allowed to complain about luck. Until then, I suggest rolling with the odds, you never know what the next outcome will be.
 
D

Deleted78083

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1. I might be wrong here, but I'm pretty sure there are more millionaires in first world countries than third world countries (when measured by the amount and the percentage too)

2. Imagine if you applied this logic to physical disabilities and becoming an athlete. Do you know how ridiculous this line sounds?

Its common sense that adversity impedes success not increases its likelihood. You (and many others) are watching too many movies. For every success story you know of where someone "overcame adversity" there are thousands of failures who never tasted success because of adversity
.
 

Raoul Duke

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Sounds like a bunch of bullshit.

REPLACE LUCK WITH FORTUNATE.
 
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Knugs

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Like the title says, i think luck plays a far too strong role in achieving financial success. I argue that the people at the very top are almost always there because of conditions they couldn't influence:

1. being born in a first world country
2. having a healthy body
3. having a healthy mind
4. access to good infrastructure
5. accesss to good education
6. equality of opportunity
7. people who support you with money and experience

I know hard work is necessary, but take one of these factors out of the equation and it's very likely that you won't achieve financial success in your life.
I also believe, that the first 3 reasons are pure chance, 4 + 5 + 6 are the responsibility of governments and 7 is the responsibility of your parents.

Now, i have an idea for a nonprofit organisation which could solve number 7. This organisation uses an online platform, where people share their life situation and their goal in order to find someone who supports them with their experience and maybe their money. So people who are highly motivated and willing to work hard but don't have parents with a gold mine could find some sort of mentor who knows about their life situation and they can work together until the goals is achieved.

I don't know if money should be involved since it would attract a lot of scammers but maybe it is possible with a milestone system, just like Upwork, where you get some money after you achieved the milestone.

So what do you think? Good idea, bad idea? Did i miss something?

I'm split on this.

My parents were born and lived in an old classic communist country that was extremely poor at that time. No access to fruits or chocolates or items that were "western". They used to have vouchers for items and had to register to purchase "luxury items". Everybody was poor, no infrastructure, no education, no opportunity (at least it appeared so). The richest people were cab drivers who exchanged foreign currency with local currency. They escaped the country and eventually became one of these in the 1% of people. I guess rule 1,4,5,6,7 didnt exist before they moved.

Simultaneously while you cant influence where you were born, you can still influence where you will live and unless you have an uncontrollable disease (really the minority), all points from 1 to 7 can be changed and influenced. I go as far to argue that people who have moved for improving their lifes have basically far stronger mindsets and will take more risk to achieve success than local people. That attitude is the biggest factor in success and why so many immigrants make it.

We live in a globalised world where it became easier to move and where most "suppressed" people have access to free information. There are many legal avenues to immigrate to the USA or any other western country that I sometimes dont understand why people immigrate illegally. For the USA sake, one of the more difficult countries to get in nowadays, you can:

-Play the DV lottery, win the green card
-Student VISA, Study a masters, get a H1B job, get the green card
-Student VISA, Marry an American for 2 years, get green card
-Be a highly qualified profession in your own country, apply for employment, get a H1B job, get the green card
-L Visas for corporate transfers. YOur corp transfers you, you work in the US.
-J-1 Visas for exchange. Has waiver programs
-the business visas E-X. Can result in unlimited stay.
-O-1 Visas for the talented. Hard to get.
-All the visa waivers that allow non intent visas to turn into intent-visas.
-Or simply, you are a political asylum seeker.

aka. you just need to work for it
 

fastlanedoll

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I'm split on this.

My parents were born and lived in an old classic communist country that was extremely poor at that time. No access to fruits or chocolates or items that were "western". They used to have vouchers for items and had to register to purchase "luxury items". Everybody was poor, no infrastructure, no education, no opportunity (at least it appeared so). The richest people were cab drivers who exchanged foreign currency with local currency. They escaped the country and eventually became one of these in the 1% of people. I guess rule 1,4,5,6,7 didnt exist before they moved.

Simultaneously while you cant influence where you were born, you can still influence where you will live and unless you have an uncontrollable disease (really the minority), all points from 1 to 7 can be changed and influenced. I go as far to argue that people who have moved for improving their lifes have basically far stronger mindsets and will take more risk to achieve success than local people. That attitude is the biggest factor in success and why so many immigrants make it.

We live in a globalised world where it became easier to move and where most "suppressed" people have access to free information. There are many legal avenues to immigrate to the USA or any other western country that I sometimes dont understand why people immigrate illegally. For the USA sake, one of the more difficult countries to get in nowadays, you can:

-Play the DV lottery, win the green card
-Student VISA, Study a masters, get a H1B job, get the green card
-Student VISA, Marry an American for 2 years, get green card
-Be a highly qualified profession in your own country, apply for employment, get a H1B job, get the green card
-L Visas for corporate transfers. YOur corp transfers you, you work in the US.
-J-1 Visas for exchange. Has waiver programs
-the business visas E-X. Can result in unlimited stay.
-O-1 Visas for the talented. Hard to get.
-All the visa waivers that allow non intent visas to turn into intent-visas.
-Or simply, you are a political asylum seeker.

aka. you just need to work for it

So theoretically, I can start a company using my dad's name, then I 'work' for him, then he can 'corp transfer' me to the States? XD
 

Lyinx

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I know this is a common refrain and I'm not discounting hard work (especially if you want to make $100M or more)...

I also don't discount the idea that you have to work hard to make that first million or two starting from scratch...

That said, as a lazy person who has made a decent amount of money in my lifetime, I think hard work is overrated. If you can figure out how to make the first million or two, and you can get your head around the key principles of making money, the next five or ten million really doesn't require that much hard work.

The problem most people have is that they try to apply the same principles to making the next $5M that they did to making the first $1M (which was mostly hard work), without realizing that that first $1M can be used as an amazing tool to generate the next $5M much, much more easily.

Again, if you want ridiculous amounts of money, you'll never stop working hard. But, if you approach it the right way, you can have FU money without sacrificing your entire life.

At least in my opinion...
never said that I worked hard :) I like to work smart if I can... and give others the "opportunity" to work hard for me :)
 
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fastlanedoll

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I personally think cash flow is overrated. Don't get me wrong -- if you don't have cash reserves and/or you plan to live off the cash flow in the near future, then cash flow is imperative. But, if the goal is to build long-term wealth, then cash flow is much less important.

Remember, real estate provides 4 benefits:

1. Cash Flow
2. Appreciation
3. Tax Benefits
4. Amortization

#1 is always great. It gives you the ability to compound faster, as IRR increases the sooner the equity being built is reinvested. But, if you don't need the cash flow, you can buy break-even properties easily and simply benefit from the other three aspects...

#2 is where I've made a lot of money. I'm not talking about natural appreciation -- values going up over time. In fact, historically, housing values have tended to mirror inflation, so in most places, you won't get much natural appreciation above and beyond the rate of inflation. But, if you can buy below-market and renovate to bring the value up, you have built-in equity the day the renovations are complete. This equity can be captured through selling (if you don't want to keep the property), through a refinance (my favorite way) or by using the property as a collateral for a line of credit (investment HELOC).

#3 is very important for those of us with a decent amount of ordinary income. Sounds like you are in this category as well. I literally write off 6-figures per year in deductions through depreciation of my properties. Let's say you own $2M in rental property (which could easily be acquired for $500K or less using leverage). That can easily generate over $50K per year in deductions from your top line of ordinary income. If you're in the 32% marginal tax bracket, that's a real savings of about $17K per year that can be used to reinvest.

Also, unlike with other investments, if you decide you want to trade your real estate for other real estate (perhaps you found a better deal, you want to trade houses for hotels, etc), this can often be done without paying capital gains. You can essentially kick that tax bill down the road as far as you'd like.

#4 is where the real wealth is built. Letting your tenants pay down your mortgage. I like 20 or 25 year fully amortized loans, knowing that in 20 or 25 years (or sooner, if I pay down the mortgages faster), I now have assets that I purchased for 25 cents on the dollar out of pocket (if I get 75% loan-to-cost loans against them), and are now worth full price. Not only do you 4x as much value as the cash you put in, but you are probably generating tremendous cash flow on those paid off properties.

Long story short...

If you want to be truly passive, take your income from your job, find nice houses in nice neighborhoods, ignore #1 and #2 above (so these deals are easy to find and you don't have to do any renovations), and get wealthy through #3 and #4.

Buy 1 or 2 houses per year, and let time do the rest...

Sure, it will take a decade or two which seems like a long time. But, for any 20 year olds reading this, when you turn 40 and can retire, you'll realize it was a good decision. Most of your 40 year old friends will still be living paycheck to paycheck, and you'll be living off a dozen or two rent checks per month...
Thanks five million!!

Last question: do you think the States is the best place to do this? I'm thinking of buying my next rental in Philippines or something due to strong appreciation / rental yields.
 
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ucantseeme3d

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I used to remind him all the time that everyone is given a special gift.
There are a lot of children that aren't going to be lucky enough to encounter someone like you to begin with (I'd wager the majority of children in situations you described won't encounter someone like you).

The exception proves the rule

Also no, not everyone is given a "special gift", that is quite literally not how reality works, some people are born with literally no redeeming characteristics (well not redeeming enough to help them carve out a path in life for themselves). Also some people are born into circumstances they will never escape (like being born a poor child in Africa destined to starve to death, only living a short life filled with suffering).

Reality doesn't play out like something nice you'd read on a hallmark card.

Your son did great, but again, he's the exception, most people with that level of disability will go on to accomplish nothing and will probably have to live on welfare.

On another note, I am really glad my parents were great and my mother wasn't the type to drink whilst pregnant. Your story is actually a perfect example of the "roll of the dice" we are all at the mercy of. Were all helpless in the womb and everything our mother consumes affects our growth and potential, and its completely out of our control.
 
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There are two possibilites:

1. Luck plays a huge role in success.
2. Luck doesn't play a huge role in success.

Either way, you should do the same thing: put forth as much effort as necessary into being successful, if that is the outcome you desire.

So it doesn't matter :D Isn't that beautiful?
 

bracknelson

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There are two possibilites:

1. Luck plays a huge role in success.
2. Luck doesn't play a huge role in success.

Either way, you should do the same thing: put forth as much effort as necessary into being successful, if that is the outcome you desire.

So it doesn't matter :D Isn't that beautiful?
Of course, there could be two different possibilities. But in both cases, you need to work hard. Yes, I agree if you are lucky there is much possibility to get success very soon and on the other hand, an unlucky person might suffer from lots of hardships, failures, struggle. But in my opinion, only an unlucky person can feel the real success.
 

luniac

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Like the title says, i think luck plays a far too strong role in achieving financial success. I argue that the people at the very top are almost always there because of conditions they couldn't influence:

1. being born in a first world country
2. having a healthy body
3. having a healthy mind
4. access to good infrastructure
5. accesss to good education
6. equality of opportunity
7. people who support you with money and experience

I know hard work is necessary, but take one of these factors out of the equation and it's very likely that you won't achieve financial success in your life.
I also believe, that the first 3 reasons are pure chance, 4 + 5 + 6 are the responsibility of governments and 7 is the responsibility of your parents.

Now, i have an idea for a nonprofit organisation which could solve number 7. This organisation uses an online platform, where people share their life situation and their goal in order to find someone who supports them with their experience and maybe their money. So people who are highly motivated and willing to work hard but don't have parents with a gold mine could find some sort of mentor who knows about their life situation and they can work together until the goals is achieved.

I don't know if money should be involved since it would attract a lot of scammers but maybe it is possible with a milestone system, just like Upwork, where you get some money after you achieved the milestone.

So what do you think? Good idea, bad idea? Did i miss something?

Yea you're 100% right, so now what you gonna do with your life?
 
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WJK

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There are a lot of children that aren't going to be lucky enough to encounter someone like you to begin with (I'd wager the majority of children in situations you described won't encounter someone like you).

The exception proves the rule

Also no, not everyone is given a "special gift", that is quite literally not how reality works, some people are born with literally no redeeming characteristics (well not redeeming enough to help them carve out a path in life for themselves). Also some people are born into circumstances they will never escape (like being born a poor child in Africa destined to starve to death, only living a short life filled with suffering).

Reality doesn't play out like something nice you'd read on a hallmark card.

Your son did great, but again, he's the exception, most people with that level of disability will go on to accomplish nothing and will probably have to live on welfare.

On another note, I am really glad my parents were great and my mother wasn't the type to drink whilst pregnant. Your story is actually a perfect example of the "roll of the dice" we are all at the mercy of. Were all helpless in the womb and everything our mother consumes affects our growth and potential, and its completely out of our control.
I don't see the world like you see it. I have mentored -- and I still mentor several people. You're right. Most of the time, it doesn't work. The whole process usually fails. BUT, when it works, it's worth all the effort and all the failures.

I have a woman who I helped over the last year. She was considered disability because they thought she was retarded. She's not. When I met her, I hooked her up with the local tutoring program. She was reading on the 3rd grade level. With the help of her tutor, now she is reading on a high school level. She's past her test and acquired a learner's permit for driving. She now working on her GED. She wants to become a nurse. For the first time in her life, she's standing up for herself. I found out that when she was about 11 years old, her mother sold her to a cousin. Her mother got $1,000 per month and the cousin bought this girl as a sex slave. No wonder she with drew into herself...

If there's life, there is hope.
 

fastlanedoll

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I don't see the world like you see it. I have mentored -- and I still mentor several people. You're right. Most of the time, it doesn't work. The whole process usually fails. BUT, when it works, it's worth all the effort and all the failures.

I have a woman who I helped over the last year. She was considered disability because they thought she was retarded. She's not. When I met her, I hooked her up with the local tutoring program. She was reading on the 3rd grade level. With the help of her tutor, now she is reading on a high school level. She's past her test and acquired a learner's permit for driving. She now working on her GED. She wants to become a nurse. For the first time in her life, she's standing up for herself. I found out that when she was about 11 years old, her mother sold her to a cousin. Her mother got $1,000 per month and the cousin bought this girl as a sex slave. No wonder she with drew into herself...

If there's life, there is hope.

That's horrible.

It's shit like this that makes you realize how lucky you are. Forget about making a billion dollars. Just be glad you weren't sold as a sex slave.
 

ShepardHumphries

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Like the title says, i think luck plays a far too strong role in achieving financial success. I argue that the people at the very top are almost always there because of conditions they couldn't influence:

1. being born in a first world country
2. having a healthy body
3. having a healthy mind
4. access to good infrastructure
5. accesss to good education
6. equality of opportunity
7. people who support you with money and experience

I know hard work is necessary, but take one of these factors out of the equation and it's very likely that you won't achieve financial success in your life.
I also believe, that the first 3 reasons are pure chance, 4 + 5 + 6 are the responsibility of governments and 7 is the responsibility of your parents.

Now, i have an idea for a nonprofit organisation which could solve number 7. This organisation uses an online platform, where people share their life situation and their goal in order to find someone who supports them with their experience and maybe their money. So people who are highly motivated and willing to work hard but don't have parents with a gold mine could find some sort of mentor who knows about their life situation and they can work together until the goals is achieved.

I don't know if money should be involved since it would attract a lot of scammers but maybe it is possible with a milestone system, just like Upwork, where you get some money after you achieved the milestone.

So what do you think? Good idea, bad idea? Did i miss something?
I too have read that book, and also what Nassem Talib said about it. Good points in part. Many people who do all the Top 10 lists of 1) work hard, 2) be passionate, etc don't wind up like the billionaire being interviewed who credit working hard, being passionate etc. I get it.

It occurs to me that we are all born with certain pros and cons, and how we design and conduct our lives plays a big role. Over the last 10 years, everyone on this forum could have afforded 100 BTC, which today would allow you to retire. Some bought, some didn't. Luck? Kinda, but when I first bought BTC in 2014 at $300-ish, it was because I was at an anarcho-capitalist conference and speakers discussed it and some guy sold me a couple hundred dollars worth.

Was it luck that I choose to live in a wealthy geographical location? (mom and I moved here in 89 when I was 16, she worked as a maid at motel 6, and I worked as a dishwasher) Was it luck that a wealthy girlfriend years ago told me, "The closer you are to the money, the more stress you will have, and the more money that will rub off on you." Was it "luck" that I failed a bunch of businesses, and then finally made one work nicely so that I could afford to travel to a conference? Was it "luck" that I was at THAT conference as a result of study done after being in politics and getting disgusted with the government? Was it luck that I met a btc geek that had enough patience to teach me and help me? Was it "luck" that I bought less than one coin? Was it luck that I spent 90% of that coin at that conference? Was it "luck" that I lost the keys for the remaining little bit?

"Privilege" exists for all of us. Luck certainly plays a role. The stoics suggest that we accept that which we can not change, and focus on what we can change. I can live in a wealthy county, I can read hundreds of books, I can make hundreds of videos, I can bla bla bla... these things don't guarantee me success. They are however, within the pile of things that I can control, and somehow good things frequently "happen" to me.
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fngbyY_M790&t=2s
 
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Wout Haksteen

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Luck is completely relative. Of course, growing up in America instead of some third world country could be described as 'luck'. However, you could suggest that being succesful is also relative. If you grew up in a very poor country and somehow moved to the US and got a middle-class paycheck that would probably make you see yourself as succesful.

If people born in America were so 'lucky', how come less than 10% of all working class citizens make more than 100k a year?

The point is, there is always someone 'luckier' than you. Working your a$$ off will get you financially succesful, regardless of how 'unlucky' you may be.
 

WJK

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That's horrible.

It's shit like this that makes you realize how lucky you are. Forget about making a billion dollars. Just be glad you weren't sold as a sex slave.
Luck is personal perception.
 
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