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HOT TOPIC Hyperinflation starting? What's happening in your area? Post your ground reports.

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GPM

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The price of milk went up 6% a few months ago for me. Not a huge jump, not also not nothing.
 

gryfny

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Gym equipment here is rising a lot since last year. I bought some stuff beginning of the pandemic, and everything is way more expensive now.
 

Red

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It doesn't work for everyone, but a great option to realize your equity is to sell your house and rent an apartment until the housing market goes back down.

Who knows how long you'll be waiting though.

I think that because our most recent financial crisis involved real estate prices falling (and subsequent foreclosures), everyone thinks that this is the new norm for economic slumps- it's not. Throughout all of the previous economic downturns in the last 50+ years, we've never had a real estate "bust" like 2007/8. I don't believe we're heading for a crash, I believe that this is our new, inflated norm. Which is what happens when your govt prints a full 25% of your money supply in the past year mixed with people being stuck at home & putting money into making it what they want/need. I believe that super-luxury may level a bit, but all the normal people waiting for a housing market crash? ..... I have bad news for you. I believe this is our new baseline of pricing normal.

Also, last I checked, you can hold proceeds from a primary residence home for 18 months before reinvesting in another primary home without being subject to capital gains.... I truly believe real estate prices aren't coming back down in any significant manner in 18 months. I'd bet my own home on it.

I think it’s because with low rates, average salaries can afford to borrow to get into these homes. Once you start getting in the $1m+ you still need a decent salary to get into them.

This is what I'm seeing here in the valley. "Normal" homes are going in bid wars in 48 hours. The nice $1M-$3M homes are taking a few days -but if they're "Pinterest-worthy" they're also gone in an instant, with a bid war. Multi-mil remodels over $5M are taking a few weeks or so (something is really wrong if it's been a month).
 

jsb13

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I believe we are witnessing a massive hyperinflationary event underway as prices continue to skyrocket in all asset classes. Of course, this doesn't happen in 1 day or 1 week, but over the course of a year or two.

Meanwhile, the Fed continues to say inflation is under control. :rofl:

I've extracted some of the posts from the other INFLATION thread -- please use this thread to POST YOUR EXPERIENCE in your area/country/city of higher prices.

The mainstream narrative is that inflation is under control -- I contend that it is running in the double-digits and as always, the media and their sycophants are lying.

Of course, if you have a local experience of LOWER PRICES, feel free to post that too.

The only place I've found lower prices are in consumer electronics like televisions. Got make that propaganda easily accessible!
Here in New Zealand
  • Property up 30% year to June
  • Second hand cars at least 10% more expensive - fewer shipments arriving, higher shipping costs
  • Labour rates trending upwards with closed borders and no migrants
  • Business costs rising everyday with our crazy socialist government
  • Food costs rising 10% plus
  • Building materials substantially more expensive. TImber up 50% in some grades
  • Imports becoming more expensive with global shipping rates so high
  • Delays at the port with C0VlD processing delays costing businesses
  • Farmers here struggling with new compliance costs and regulations from the left wing ideology going on here.
Strangest time Ive seen in NZ in my adult life!
 

Mckenzie

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MitchC

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FritsFlitsFstlne

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I believe we are witnessing a massive hyperinflationary event underway as prices continue to skyrocket in all asset classes. Of course, this doesn't happen in 1 day or 1 week, but over the course of a year or two.

Meanwhile, the Fed continues to say inflation is under control. :rofl:

I've extracted some of the posts from the other INFLATION thread -- please use this thread to POST YOUR EXPERIENCE in your area/country/city of higher prices.

The mainstream narrative is that inflation is under control -- I contend that it is running in the double-digits and as always, the media and their sycophants are lying.

Of course, if you have a local experience of LOWER PRICES, feel free to post that too.

The only place I've found lower prices are in consumer electronics like televisions. Got make that propaganda easily accessible!
Awesome words of truth! Thanks for being honest and brave for the “so many times can’t count them” time!

Message from Holland: houses are enormously high priced... And there are stupid games being played: like overbidding allready enourmous ammounts of money.

I keep working to be ready for a next lockdown to offer my services as a webshop developer! Differentiation by giving merchants absolute control over their webshop.

Your books have catapulted me in the direction of progress and “grinding.” I have still a lot to learn- but at least im playing the game!

hope this wasn’t off topic to much. Greetz Frits!
 

c4n

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I just realized I am guilty of committing shrinkflation too :wideyed:

I didn't raise my SaaS plan prices, but a few months ago I reduced the amount of service each plan receives. My existing clients were not affected by this, but all the new ones are.
 

loop101

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Is there a simple anti-inflation investment if you have some extra money you don't plan to spend for a few years? I found the TIPS ETF which seem inflation-nullifying, but I think they are otherwise just a market index. It seems like the market is high, so I was afraid to put too much money in it. I guess there isn't an instrument that nullifies everything if you are willing to give up gains. For example, I think the TIPS goes up with inflation, but only keeping pace with it, not making a profit more than the inflation itself.
 

Bekit

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Here's a recent example of shrinkflation.

I just got toilet paper at Costco.

I still had a package of the same brand of TP that I bought before the pandemic. So I was curious to see if they had changed anything about it.

Yep.

Feb 2020:
Price: $16.99
Rolls: 30
Sheets per roll: 425
Total square feet: 1593.7

July 2021:
Price: $16.99
Rolls: 30
Sheets per roll: 380
Total square feet: 1425

0718211842.jpg
45 fewer sheets per roll, and 168 fewer total square feet.

Interestingly, they've managed to make the package look about the same size. But you can tell that the rolls in the top package are stuffed so full they're like rounded squares, while in the bottom package, they're just round circles.
 

TinyOldLady

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Here's a recent example of shrinkflation.

I just got toilet paper at Costco.

I still had a package of the same brand of TP that I bought before the pandemic. So I was curious to see if they had changed anything about it.

Yep.

Feb 2020:
Price: $16.99
Rolls: 30
Sheets per roll: 425
Total square feet: 1593.7

July 2021:
Price: $16.99
Rolls: 30
Sheets per roll: 380
Total square feet: 1425

View attachment 38999
45 fewer sheets per roll, and 168 fewer total square feet.

Interestingly, they've managed to make the package look about the same size. But you can tell that the rolls in the top package are stuffed so full they're like rounded squares, while in the bottom package, they're just round circles.
But they are thicker than ever before!
 

GPM

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Oh no! My trusted Kirkland brand is doing it too. That makes me more sad than you could ever know. As soon as I see Kirkland I don't even need to research it, I already know it's quality
 

e_fastlane

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Is there a simple anti-inflation investment if you have some extra money you don't plan to spend for a few years? I found the TIPS ETF which seem inflation-nullifying, but I think they are otherwise just a market index. It seems like the market is high, so I was afraid to put too much money in it. I guess there isn't an instrument that nullifies everything if you are willing to give up gains. For example, I think the TIPS goes up with inflation, but only keeping pace with it, not making a profit more than the inflation itself.
Unfortunately not.

The best tools to fight inflation on your $$ is stocks/bonds. They also don't historically beat inflation, BUT as long as you keep it in through the ups/downs, the frenzies and bull markets end up making up for times of inflation/stagnation and crashes along the way. This is exactly why the markets are still going crazy even through economic turmoil. Where else are you going to put the money? You've got nowhere to go. So you put it in the shitty , but historically best option.
 

WJK

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Unfortunately not.

The best tools to fight inflation on your $$ is stocks/bonds. They also don't historically beat inflation, BUT as long as you keep it in through the ups/downs, the frenzies and bull markets end up making up for times of inflation/stagnation and crashes along the way. This is exactly why the markets are still going crazy even through economic turmoil. Where else are you going to put the money? You've got nowhere to go. So you put it in the shitty , but historically best option.
Or real estate...
 

e_fastlane

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Or real estate...
Kind of. Real estate on average is barely better than inflation. If you include renting out your real estate, thats now a business in itself and not just investing your money. I think we all agree business is the best!
 

WJK

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Kind of. Real estate on average is barely better than inflation. If you include renting out your real estate, thats now a business in itself and not just investing your money. I think we all agree business is the best!
And the stock market is a big gamble. Since the 1990s when the Saving and Loan/Thrift industry failed, the bond and stock market have taken over RE financing. We'll see how that all works out. Several segments of the RE are teetering on the brink of the great abyss. There's no known history to guide the way out of the danger. There are fewer shares of stocks on the market now than in the past -- with a lot more money chasing them causing price inflation and unrealistic PEs. I'm not sure there are safe harbors around right now. So, my path is run lean and mean. That means seriously managing known risks; doing debt management through pay downs and no new leverage; controlling expenses as much as possible; making sure that I have an adequate emergency fund; watching the markets like they were my own kids; keeping my ear to the ground for changes in direction by the human herd...
Uncertainty is sure in the air.
 

e_fastlane

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And the stock market is a big gamble. Since the 1990s when the Saving and Loan/Thrift industry failed, the bond and stock market have taken over RE financing. We'll see how that all works out. Several segments of the RE are teetering on the brink of the great abyss. There's no known history to guide the way out of the danger. There are fewer shares of stocks on the market now than in the past -- with a lot more money chasing them causing price inflation and unrealistic PEs. I'm not sure there are safe harbors around right now. So, my path is run lean and mean. That means seriously managing known risks; doing debt management through pay downs and no new leverage; controlling expenses as much as possible; making sure that I have an adequate emergency fund; watching the markets like they were my own kids; keeping my ear to the ground for changes in direction by the human herd...
Uncertainty is sure in the air.
Kind of . I am talking about index funds like VTSAX or S&P500, not individual stocks or small funds. Past performance can't guarantee future performance but data of 100+ years is as good a guarantee as you are gonna get. It's at minimum no less of a guarantee than predicting real estate either. Every single boom and bust there are people that say its different this time. To their credit, IT IS different every time, but it always ends the same. A boom that goes for an unpredictable length of time, then a bust, which is followed by a boom again. Human ingenuity continues and the economy rebounds and grows. The next best thing to owning a business is having a steak in others businesses! As long as your time horizon is decades and you don't need your investment money tomorrow, history shows that it doesn't matter what the market is doing. Even putting in money at the worst times in history (lets say bottom of great depression) leads to a positive portfolio in real terms 10 years later and a spectacular one decades later. If the stock market doesn't keep growing over the long term, we have much more serious issues and your real estate bet aint worth it's weight either.

Volatility is high, but volatility doesn't mean risk in actual loss. Just temporary fluctuations. The key is only to use money that you don't need to touch for 10 years or longer (or have a calculated withdrawal plan ahead of time). If you can't stomach temporary low's then the market isn't for you. But then I have no idea what you can do with your money to prevent it being eaten alive by inflation. Real estate also comes with risks and volatility. Wait till the idiots in charge decide rent control everywhere is great or the CDC declarers a public health emergency on poverty and does another eviction moratorium lol
 

WJK

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Kind of . I am talking about index funds like VTSAX or S&P500, not individual stocks or small funds. Past performance can't guarantee future performance but data of 100+ years is as good a guarantee as you are gonna get. It's at minimum no less of a guarantee than predicting real estate either. Every single boom and bust there are people that say its different this time. To their credit, IT IS different every time, but it always ends the same. A boom that goes for an unpredictable length of time, then a bust, which is followed by a boom again. Human ingenuity continues and the economy rebounds and grows. The next best thing to owning a business is having a steak in others businesses! As long as your time horizon is decades and you don't need your investment money tomorrow, history shows that it doesn't matter what the market is doing. Even putting in money at the worst times in history (lets say bottom of great depression) leads to a positive portfolio in real terms 10 years later and a spectacular one decades later. If the stock market doesn't keep growing over the long term, we have much more serious issues and your real estate bet aint worth it's weight either.

Volatility is high, but volatility doesn't mean risk in actual loss. Just temporary fluctuations. The key is only to use money that you don't need to touch for 10 years or longer (or have a calculated withdrawal plan ahead of time). If you can't stomach temporary low's then the market isn't for you. But then I have no idea what you can do with your money to prevent it being eaten alive by inflation. Real estate also comes with risks and volatility. Wait till the idiots in charge decide rent control everywhere is great or the CDC declarers a public health emergency on poverty and does another eviction moratorium lol
I wasn't saying that RE is superior to the stock market. For you, the stock market may be the cat's meow. For me, RE is just less risky since that's the world I really, really know.

This is my 5th business cycle, so I have a different take on it. Yes, it looks and smells different each time. But, if you scratch it, the unlying elements are eerily similar. The boom/bust cycle in the single-family housing market is SO familiar. It feels like the early 2000s and the run-ups that came before that bubble. The problems in the office space market feel like the 1990s. The inflation bump is shades of 1980. I believe that history repeats itself over and over, just wrapped in different clothes.
 

e_fastlane

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I wasn't saying that RE is superior to the stock market. For you, the stock market may be the cat's meow. For me, RE is just less risky since that's the world I really, really know.

This is my 5th business cycle, so I have a different take on it. Yes, it looks and smells different each time. But, if you scratch it, the unlying elements are eerily similar. The boom/bust cycle in the single-family housing market is SO familiar. It feels like the early 2000s and the run-ups that came before that bubble. The problems in the office space market feel like the 1990s. The inflation bump is shades of 1980. I believe that history repeats itself over and over, just wrapped in different clothes.
Gotchya. Seems like we are on the same page. The best is what you know and are comfortable with, thats for sure! Most people, including myself, have no real experience with RE so we would be going in blind. I answered the posters question with the assumption that he doesn't already have good places to put the money into (like strong RE experience or a business needing investment).
 

MitchC

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I wasn't saying that RE is superior to the stock market. For you, the stock market may be the cat's meow. For me, RE is just less risky since that's the world I really, really know.

This is my 5th business cycle, so I have a different take on it. Yes, it looks and smells different each time. But, if you scratch it, the unlying elements are eerily similar. The boom/bust cycle in the single-family housing market is SO familiar. It feels like the early 2000s and the run-ups that came before that bubble. The problems in the office space market feel like the 1990s. The inflation bump is shades of 1980. I believe that history repeats itself over and over, just wrapped in different clothes.
Based on all this experience I’m just wondering what you are doing/suggest doing right now?

Just ride it out and hold on through the bust or sell now and watch your money deflate for a further unknown length of time
 

WJK

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Based on all this experience I’m just wondering what you are doing/suggest doing right now?

Just ride it out and hold on through the bust or sell now and watch your money deflate for a further unknown length of time
I did a lot of debt reduction and consolidation while the other RE investors were into leverage. I tried to tell them about 1990, but they couldn't hear me. They were neck-deep in their systems. They countered that I really didn't understand RE and how to make money. I ignored them and went right on with preparing for the next cycle.

Then the pandemic hit that triggered the lockdowns and evict restrictions. It wasn't the way I expected the next cycle to raise it nasty head -- so, I waited to see what was going to happen. I continued rehabbing my mobile homes to expand my rental business. I daily went to work just like usual. But, I didn't do any other investing -- while I nurtured and increased my nest egg. Now I'm actively seeking to purchase privately-owned trust deeds. And I'm making offers on vacant land and under-improved properties. I have systems for each of those market segments. I'm actively working a network of RE professionals to support me in those efforts. Oh, how I LOVE referrals!

The single-family house market is too hot for me to make a reliable profit. (I'm always running the opposite of the market.) Also, our winters here are a major barrier. You must get that house purchased, vacated, rehabbed, and sold before winter hits.

Is that what you wanted to know? Hope it helps...
 

GPM

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Just got back from Costco in Canada after being gone for 2.5 months.

Today I was surprised at the prices would be an understatement. Beef, fish and pork is all up roughly 25%. The super cheap stewing beef I normally get for soup was $12/kg or so. $17 now. The cheapie steaks under $20/kg. It's $25/kg now.

The fish is a smaller package and the price was up too. I couldn't believe it. A single shopping cart not even close to full, with a toddler in it to boot, came to $430. A trip of this size is usually close to $300-350 for me. Inflation rate my a$$, I was gone less than 3 months
 

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The developed countries are flush with cash but without many productive investments to put them in at the moment, the RE is the only option to store value in them against inflation. Many people have remarked here on the forum that they can't even get people on the phone to do some paid work anymore, and of course we have the employment problem of people not wanting to do simple, relatively underpaid work anymore.

But somehow stuffs are still being made, guess who is making them? My opinion is that the C0VlD responses completely reversed the course of the Trump trade war of the past four years: China is back being the factory of the world and a lot of capital is flowing back to them, since they are the ones that are still making stuff for the developed country while people here in the US does not want to work for $15/hr.
 

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