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How does the economy really work? (Banks, loans, value, economics)

socaldude

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I’ve always wondered how the economy would work if the US government printed its own money over at the US treasury.

I guess printing money and buying government bonds is the only way to pass the risk on to taxpayers.

Even all throughout history wealthy families would bail out bankrupt governments.

Banks would have to go full reserve banking and taxpayers would pay less taxes.
 
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Guest-5ty5s4

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A very quiet group of private investors who take a nip out of dollars that they handle in our economy.
On further reading, it looks like it's owned by the largest member banks, like an MLM or hierarchy of banking.
 

Tom H.

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Yes, I’ve seen this.

I know what value is, too @Tom H. Most of the people here probably already know this. A lot of the comments here are explaining something more basic.

But the question is really about how more money enters the system and what it means. Obviously money is just a means of exchange - that’s rudimentary.

Obviously money is not value - value can be many things. That is also rudimentary.

The real question is how the banking, lending, and government work in reality.

Money supply is created via fractional reserve banking, meaning I lend out the same dollar ten times, 10x-ing the money supply.

The Fed acquires assets (other people's debt) and pays for them with money created out of thin air. The interest and principe are then paid back as you described, so the Fed makes money off of lending money that they created from nothing.

The system does not work, this is easily seen by charting the value of the dollar since 1913 (or similarly in any central banking system). When the Fed creates money they are stealing value from other people's savings.

Another way it doesn't work: the system diverts investment into less productive projects and it distorts prices, sending confusing signals to entrepreneurs, who then make bad investments. This is the cause of business cycles.

If the system worked you could just save cash instead of investing in stocks, etc. And we wouldn't have boom-bust business cycles.

The system works if you are a banker and you want to steal value without being productive.
 
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socaldude

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Guest-5ty5s4

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Money supply is created via fractional reserve banking, meaning I lend out the same dollar ten times, 10x-ing the money supply.

The Fed acquires assets (other people's debt) and pays for them with money created out of thin air. The interest and principe are then paid back as you described, so the Fed makes money off of lending money that they created from nothing.

The system does not work, this is easily seen by charting the value of the dollar since 1913 (or similarly in any central banking system). When the Fed creates money they are stealing value from other people's savings.

Another way it doesn't work: the system diverts investment into less productive projects and it distorts prices, sending confusing signals to entrepreneurs, who then make bad investments. This is the cause of business cycles.

If the system worked you could just save cash instead of investing in stocks, etc. And we wouldn't have boom-bust business cycles.

The system works if you are a banker and you want to steal value without being productive.
Some very profound insights here.

I had never thought about how this could lead people to make bad investments and/or create business cycles, but that makes perfect sense and we can accurately see that now, for instance:

"Dollars bad!! Must invest more money!!" - that is the name of the game in 2021, and has led to many investments becoming quite overvalued.
 

Tom H.

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Some very profound insights here.

I had never thought about how this could lead people to make bad investments and/or create business cycles, but that makes perfect sense and we can accurately see that now, for instance:

"Dollars bad!! Must invest more money!!" - that is the name of the game in 2021, and has led to many investments becoming quite overvalued.
Right, exactly.

And the most important price that gets distorted is the price of money (interest rates).

If it's really cheap to borrow money, then I might think building a new high-rise is a good idea. If the price of money was not artificially low, then it would be harder for me to get that money for my project and I'd realize that there actually isn't enough demand for me to take on the risk of the high-interest loan.

Instead, rates are artificially low, so I invest in a construction project, and then it turns out consumers don't have enough money to buy condos in my expensive high-rise, so my project fails, I default on the loan, the whole complex chain reaction unfolds.

>"Dollars bad!! Must invest more money!!" - that is the name of the game in 2021, and has led to many investments becoming quite overvalued.

Yea all these asset bubbles will have to pop. Tesla is not creating 100x more value than it did before, it is just an inflated asset because there are too many dollars with no where to go.
 
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Kak

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@thechosen1 check out Ludwig Von Mises’ writings on “malinvestment” if you are interested in why we have boom/bust business cycles.

What you seem to be asking is how fractional reserve banking works. Start there and branch out.
 
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WillHurtDontCare

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Food for thought:




Take the opinion of doers with a grain of salt, because there's only so much truth that they will want to share or admit to.

Take the opinion of thinkers who aren't doers with a grain of salt, because their lack of experience will limit what they can understand (though they can definitely understand a lot).

This one is also good, simply because economic beliefs are more often closer to religious beliefs when it comes to both capitalism and communism / socialism; so you will need help seeing through the distorting lenses that people view these systems through - The Sublime Object of Ideology - Wikipedia
 

Ernman

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Productive value creation and voluntary exchange is what makes an economy work.
That statement should be in gold BOLD letters. The economy as we usually think of it is nothing more than the system that keeps voluntary exchange for created value moving.
 
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Wow, you're so triggered by me that someone simply tagging me in a post leads you to to have a half-page melt-down?

Seriously, that's not normal behavior. Seriously.

I was going to make a snarky comment that you should talk about me on your podcast, so both of your listeners could hear about your obsession.

But, seeing how fragile you are, that just seems uncalled for at this point.
Can both of you stop this? Let's talk about ideas and our businesses. Let's help each other. We don't have to agree or think in lock-step. BUT we must respect each other!
 

Kak

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Can both of you stop this? Let's talk about ideas and our businesses. Let's help each other. We don't have to agree or think in lock-step. BUT we must respect each other!
I highly disagree. Respect is earned, despite that, I gave him years of respect. He was not even close to worth it.

J has a MASSSIVE people problem. The most important thing in business is making it bigger than you. Leadership. The leverage that gains you. Inspiring others. Lifting them up. Having value created in your name by as many inspired people as possible.

He does nothing, but shit on people. I simply don’t like people like that and I felt like speaking my actual mind instead of wasting energy coming up with some more “respectful” way of typing it. My patience and my filter on this has long been worn thin. Don’t blame him, I clearly threw the first punch here, I was aware he wouldn’t leave it alone when I did it.

Respecting someone, just because, is a ridiculous notion. I’m past that point in life where I need to be scolded about respect. To say I don’t care what J Scott thinks of me, my businesses, or my radio show would be an understatement. I don’t need his approval or respect (which he won’t give anyone anyway). I’m doing just fine without it.
 
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WJK

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I highly disagree. Respect is earned, despite that, I gave him years of respect. He was not even close to worth it.

J has a MASSSIVE people problem. The most important thing in business is making it bigger than you. Leadership. The leverage that gains you. Inspiring others. Lifting them up.

He does nothing, but shit on people. I simply don’t like people like that and I felt like speaking my actual mind instead of wasting energy coming up with some more “respectful” way of typing it. My patience and my filter on this has long been worn thin. I will fully admit that I threw the first punch here, I was aware when I did it.

Respecting someone, just because, is a ridiculous notion. I’m past that point in life where I need to be scolded about respect. To say I don’t care what J Scott thinks of me, my businesses, or my radio show would be an understatement. I don’t need his approval or respect (which he won’t give anyone anyway). I’m doing just fine without it.
I wasn't trying to scold you. I was saying that I hate to watch two adults having a personal fight with each other on this forum. Is there any middle ground for either of you? If you guys feel that you must fight -- go for it. Just remember that there is time and place for everything.
 
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Kak

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Actually, we both know what this is about...

You like to pretend to be the most successful and intelligent guy in the room, and you can't handle being reminded that you're neither.

You try your best to talk a good game and you on put on this facade that you've achieved a level of success that you clearly haven't achieved.

You give advice about how to make money, but you haven't made it yourself.

You want so badly to be a thought leader, but all you do is regurgitate cliche crap that that has been said a million times before.

You think you're edgy and anti-establishment, and yet your entire schtick comes off as a fourth-rate wannabe pundit who conforms to every other wannabe anti-establishment pundit.

You act like you don't care what anyone else thinks, and yet it's obvious that what everyone else thinks is the *only* thing you care about.

Then one day, in a thread a long time ago, I come along and see through all your BS and call you out on it.

I lifted the veil on your truth, and from that day forward, you've worked hard to discredit me, because if you can get people to think I'm the idiot, they won't believe what I'm pointing out about you.

The problem is, I don't play into your idiot narrative very well. As you did in this thread, you even go so far as to try to discredit me BEFORE I say a word.

That's how desperate you are to maintain this facade you've created.

Look, I may be an a**hole, but I'm not an idiot. And people here know that. So when I point out your bullshit pseudo-intellectualism, other people start to wake up to it.

And you know this.

And you hate it.

And you hate me for it.

That's what this is about.

Bravo for doing exactly what I said you would do tough guy. You literally proved everything I said in my first post. :rofl:

There is a reason every single time you come here you feel the need to tell us all about how rich and bad a$$ you are, because you’re in some kind of fight where you need to prove your dominance. It is not my fault that it takes more than a dick telling me how great he is to respect him.

Here is your social handbook: Be a dick, tell everyone how stupid and awful everyone with a somewhat popular opinion is, take the opposing viewpoint and then tell everyone how great you are. That is a severely limiting way to live your life. Hey, I’m an introvert too, but this is next level shit.

I have contributed to this forum for 10 years for friendship, fun, and learning. Some people like what I have to say and some don’t. I understand that the world is a place of continued learning. I understand that I stand to gain by learning from others. I’m here to learn first and foremost. That has proven a good and profitable reason to be here. I have also made like a hundred amazing entrepreneurial friends that I talk to off of the forum.

You are here for neither friendship, fun, nor learning, unless your idea of fun is to cut people down and make them feel stupid instead of engaging in a friendly discourse. I couldn‘t care less, but too many people here are afraid of you. Information flow and learning screeches to a halt when you arrive. I really don’t like that. So, I choose to humanize you every so often.

My show is a cheerleader for the entrepreneur. A show for people that get enjoyment out of business and raising the bar. If I had two listeners, it wouldn’t change my lifestyle in the slightest. I host it, and very diligently, because I know I’m going to thank myself for it later. I have said as much on the show.

Congratulations, now you’re the guy that attacked a radio show you know very little about, that many people on this forum get a lot of entertainment value and enjoyment out of. You attacked a successful member of the forum. Have literally called me moneyless and unsuccessful with zero proof to back up your claims.

Notice, I’ve never said such things about you. My only narrative about you is that you're just a dick and your stories suck. I don’t doubt you have some money. But you’ve capped the shit out of your potential by being a total dick. I don’t need to call into question your success. I don’t care J. I seriously don’t.

All you have is hyperbole about how miserably poor everyone is but you.

I don’t ever opine on other people’s levels of success. I don’t ever cut them down. I’m encouraging to the brand new entrepreneur, just like I am to the seasoned one. If this was just about business, I would be happy for you and whatever successes you’ve had. I am the least jealous person on the planet. But this isn‘t about business. You’re a dick, and I don’t like dicks.
 
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Kevin88660

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There are two ways you can approach this. You can buy a used college textbook on monetary policy and learn all the money supply graphs and statistics on how printing money is great. Also, Funny how Woodrow Wilson was a college professor.

OR

You can learn all of this from what I call the “anti-brainwash” perspective. In other words you reject everything academia says and look at things from a fresh perspective. In that case watch the 1996 documentary “Money Masters” by Bill Still.

I already researched all of this. And my views align more with the second.

Banks create all our money and the loan it out through collateralized lending so some other schmuck takes the risk and they incur no opportunity-cost. Oh, and you don’t get “free money” loans if you are not in “the club” of private bankers.

Oh, and the federal reserve system is cleverly designed so that if shit hits the fan, they can blame someone else for it. Hyperinflation? What are you talking about?
Even the mainstream academics debate about effect of money printing. You also have the unorthodox schools like Austrian and post-keynesian/minsky school of thought.

The new classical school (chicago school) simply hold a money neutrality view that money is just a tool for bartering.

The neoclassical (old keynesian)school views money as largely neutral but not entirely neutral. Having some inflation is a good things because lenders rather than savers are the engines of the economy. But when interest gets to near zero monetary policy become useless. The lower of cost of borrowing can no longer encourage business expansion or consumer spending. Hence you need government to take the role of deficit spending. This is what they call a liquidity trap at zero percent. Major proponent of this school of thought is Paul Krugman.

The monetarist school (Milton Friedman and his disciple Ben Bernanke) believes that during normal time moderate inflation is good. But during a crisis aggressive monetary stimulus is needed to ensure there is no liquidity crisis, which leads to massive bankruptcy. Liquidity trap at zero percent is nonsense because the central bank can push negative interest rate and buy up assets directly in the market. When your financial assets hold value market participants are unlikely to liquidate and continue the vicious cycle. 2008 was the example when banks toxic assets are recapitalized, they are not in pressure to call back loans for self preservation. There is less pressure on the entire cashflow chain in the real economy.

The Austrian school will say its the easy money and low interest during the boom years thats the problem which leads to bad investment and bad debt, and we should do nothing during the crisis because this is the time to detox and let bankruptcy take its course. Peter schiff is a proponent of this.

The post keynesian/minsky school will say it is not about whether u should print money but how you should print money. The real problem is private debt is too high (business and consumers) relative to their ability to make an income. So when you recapitalize banks through QE the banks look at the business and individuals and say “These people and business are near broke and I dun dare to lend them money”. Because when private banks create a debt/loan, they create liability for themselves. If they lend the credit to a businessman and its business man spent the credit on a supplier and then went bankrupt, now the bank owes credit to the supplier. So what QE is doing is making banks sitting on cash doing nothing. It makes stock market billionaires richer. And the stock market billionaire say “wow let me cash out to invest in real business operations. But gee.. the people are broke..the consumers have high debt and are broke and can only shop at walmart..I cannot make money in real business and I better reinvest back into the stock market”. Thats why we have rocket high inflation in the asset prices but not much inflation (some here here will say otherwise) and stimulus in real business activity so far despite having QE. And the right solution is to have “People’s QE”-mailing cheque to average people. Steve keen the professor from Australia is a proponent for that, and ironically after covid the governments are doing this, not because they adopted his opinion but it seems to have no choice when you have to put people at home not working.
 
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Kevin88660

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I've heard this a lot, and the question I always come back to is - who owns the Fed?

All the Rothschild conspiracy stuff aside, this is a very convoluted and backwards banking setup, IMO.

It would appear we are all slaves to the Federal Reserve, at least on paper.
Central banks are in theory privately owned but in practice publicly controlled for public interest.

It is basically a cartel in collaboration with the power of the state, and the public accepted it because it did offer a better consumer experience than the chaotic past of “free market”.

Before central bank in place you have thousand of banks running the lending business. Basically they have gold deposit reserves and create credit (which is paper notes that promise to pay physical gold). When time is good everyone enjoyed the convenience of using paper and credit expansion. In crisis everyone rushed to redeem their papers for real gold. And many banks suffered a bank run a collapsed.

The issue is banks are in competition against one another. When bank A is in trouble bank B will not help it by lending its excess gold, also in part of fearing the bank run as well. What happens when Bank A goes down. Bank B customer are going to ask themselves the question “Are my golds safe”. Bank B eventually go down as well.

So after the banking panic in the early 20th century the more affluent bankers led by JP morgan decided to put a stop on this mess. Because if people do not trust banks they are just going to put their gold at home. And the industry can never grow. So the central bank is a collective insurance scheme that promise to “act as lender of last resort”. The banking industry is special is that while everyone competes with one another everyone needs to also collaborate with one another to ensure the survival of the industry as a whole.

You can criticise central banking for all you want but it restored the confidence people have. Today even if you know that the bank do not own the real paper money backing your million dollar deposit account but you wont freak out to withdraw them and put it under the safe.

Eventually the world moved towards central banking because the state wants to have the central bank to back it in time of emergency. In theory some central banks are “privately owned” and the private owners enjoy a share of dividends, the appointment of key holders are often done by the state official. The government grants the banking industry power in returns that in times of crisis like war, it can get the financial support through massive inflation. The state is a war machine and survival is its higher political objective.

Some people subscribe to the “bankers control everything” conspiracy but it is obvious that state power and its bureaucracy is the higher power. There were decades (1940-1970 in U.S.) when bankers are not popular and government imposed heavy rules against them on banning business related to leverage and speculation, also due to politicians who do so to reflect public opinion. And in recent years Uncle Sam is going oversea going after Swiss bankers and Swiss government and pressure them into submission if they were suspects of helping Americans to hide their wealth oversea for tax dodging.
 
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WJK

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Even the mainstream academics debate about effect of money printing. You also have the unorthodox schools like Austrian and post-keynesian/minsky school of thought.

The new classical school (chicago school) simply hold a money neutrality view that money is just a tool for bartering.

The neoclassical (old keynesian)school views money as largely neutral but not entirely neutral. Having some inflation is a good things because lenders rather than savers are the engines of the economy. But when interest gets to near zero monetary policy become useless. The lower of cost of borrowing can no longer encourage business expansion or consumer spending. Hence you need government to take the role of deficit spending. This is what they call a liquidity trap at zero percent. Major proponent of this school of thought is Paul Krugman.

The monetarist school (Milton Friedman and his disciple Ben Bernanke) believes that during normal time moderate inflation is good. But during a crisis aggressive monetary stimulus is needed to ensure there is no liquidity crisis, which leads to massive bankruptcy. Liquidity trap at zero percent is nonsense because the central bank can push negative interest rate and buy up assets directly in the market. When your financial assets hold value market participants are unlikely to liquidate and continue the vicious cycle. 2008 was the example when banks toxic assets are recapitalized, they are not in pressure to call back loans for self preservation. There is less pressure on the entire cashflow chain in the real economy.

The Austrian school will say its the easy money and low interest during the boom years thats the problem which leads to bad investment and bad debt, and we should do nothing during the crisis because this is the time to detox and let bankruptcy take its course. Peter schiff is a proponent of this.

The post keynesian/minsky school will say it is not about whether u should print money but how you should print money. The real problem is private debt is too high (business and consumers) relative to their ability to make an income. So when you recapitalize banks through QE the banks look at the business and individuals and say “These people and business are near broke and I dun dare to lend them money”. Because when private banks create a debt/loan, they create liability for themselves. If they lend the credit to a businessman and its business man spent the credit on a supplier and then went bankrupt, now the bank owes credit to the supplier. So what QE is doing is making banks sitting on cash doing nothing. It makes stock market billionaires richer. And the stock market billionaire say “wow let me cash out to invest in real business operations. But gee.. the people are broke..the consumers have high debt and are broke and can only shop at walmart..I cannot make money in real business and I better reinvest back into the stock market”. Thats why we have rocket high inflation in the asset prices but not much inflation (some here here will say otherwise) and stimulus in real business activity so far despite having QE. And the right solution is to have “People’s QE”-mailing cheque to average people. Steve keen the professor from Australia is a proponent for that, and ironically after covid the governments are doing this, not because they adopted his opinion but it seems to have no choice when you have to put people at home not working.
That's really interesting. You're telling the theories behind the events and business cycles that I have lived for all of these years. I just have seen it as the normal ebbs and flows of our economy -- time after time. It's like living on an earthquake fault line. Disruptive events of varying levels are expected and almost predictable.

This financial moment for me started about 4 years ago... when I felt the earth under my feet getting ready to move again. While the people around me were taking on huge RE mortgages, I was retiring debt. They kept telling me about how they were using leverage in RE. I was retorting by telling them about 1980 -- when suddenly the interest rates went to 21% and 22% to curb inflation. And about the 1990s in Los Angeles where we had a decade-long recession in the RE market -- during which most of my friends who were heavily leveraged went bankrupt. The people around me dismissed me and my warnings. I was stupid and I didn't understand the RE business. And then the virus hit last year with a dull thud. It rocked their little worlds really hard. I'm here and still standing.
 
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Timmy C

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Just to clear this up, so we all know, I am the real and God of the fasltane forum.

My palms are so sweaty she's nervous..
When I cash those billion-dollar checks I know you look at me like a goIMG_20210424_025959.jpgd.

Like don't, like the future.
Like elongate

Few
 
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Kid

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Just to clear this up, so we all know, I am the real and God of the fasltane forum.

My palms are so sweaty she's nervous..
When I cash those billion-dollar checks I know you look at me like a goView attachment 37704d.

Like don't, like the future.
Like elongate

Few
When politicians start taking something into their own hands its time to worry.
But go ahead,hodl, increase in assets rarely is correlates with increase in iq anyway.
 
D

Deleted78083

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Money supply is created via fractional reserve banking, meaning I lend out the same dollar ten times, 10x-ing the money supply.

The Fed acquires assets (other people's debt) and pays for them with money created out of thin air. The interest and principe are then paid back as you described, so the Fed makes money off of lending money that they created from nothing.

The system does not work, this is easily seen by charting the value of the dollar since 1913 (or similarly in any central banking system). When the Fed creates money they are stealing value from other people's savings.

Another way it doesn't work: the system diverts investment into less productive projects and it distorts prices, sending confusing signals to entrepreneurs, who then make bad investments. This is the cause of business cycles.

If the system worked you could just save cash instead of investing in stocks, etc. And we wouldn't have boom-bust business cycles.

The system works if you are a banker and you want to steal value without being productive.
Thank you, this is entirely correct.

@thechosen1 if you listen to MacroVoices episode 265, they explain this whole thing.

They also explain that the FED wont be able to keep on printing as they run out of debt to swap...until they find out a new way to do so ofc.
 

Timmy C

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When politicians start taking something into their own hands its time to worry.
But go ahead,hodl, increase in assets rarely is correlates with increase in iq anyway.
HFSP.
FEW.

Enjoy eating grasshoppers.
 
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We need a Thunderdome on the forum where ppl can go to argue. I will bring snacks.
 

Primeperiwinkle

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Hey, I wouldn’t expect a bunch of individualistic, ambitious, maverick-type of people to get along all the time.

Comes with the territory and the mindset!

A person who always “goes along to get along” or “goes with the flow” is unlikely to get rich.
I wasn’t being sarcastic. I really want a section of the forum to be titled ‘Thunderdome’ then when anybody wants to get into it they can just go there and we can vote on who we think won.
 
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Guest-5ty5s4

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I wasn’t being sarcastic. I really want a section of the forum to be titled ‘Thunderdome’ then when anybody wants to get into it they can just go there and we can vote on who we think won.
Haha that would be entertaining. I don’t like the idea of someone “winning” an argument though, because in many ways, opinions cannot win or lose. So you fall to who had the best burn or roast. Which is really kind of stupid.
 

Primeperiwinkle

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Haha that would be entertaining. I don’t like the idea of someone “winning” an argument though, because in many ways, opinions cannot win or lose. So you fall to who had the best burn or roast. Which is really kind of stupid.
Yea they’d give each other some little bites and get bruised egos, maybe. Meanwhile, keeping a record of who fights who and says what would benefit the circus. We’d be able to see how often somebody acts like a dick, who won’t listen to whom, and who fails to back up their claims. I mean, at the end of the day unless we all share bank accounts it’s he said she said anyways. Might as well make it entertaining.
 

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