GOOG, Where Now After Earning?

[OptionTradingIQ]

Is anyone considering buying GOOG? The stock is down around 7% today after a bad earning report. The next level of decent support looks to be around $500. So, do you wait for it to fall a bit further, build a base and then get in?

One strategy I am considering is using today's volatility to sell a put credit spread well below the market with a view that it should find support around $500.

Thoughts?

 

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[Guest3722A]

Where's max pain at?

 

[RideHD]

I will wait for it to build a base and breakout to the upside in a rising market before getting on board. Given the current market conditions during an earnings season and based on my investing style, I am not doing any new buying right now. (Waiting on the uptrend to resume -- or break.) Best of luck whatever you decide!

 

[OptionTradingIQ]

Yeah that is definately the way to go, wait for it to build a base and then breakout. Need to wait for this volatility to play out. I guess you subscribe to the Investor's Business Daily view on investing if you're talking about bases?

Will let you know if i place any trades on GOOG

 

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[RideHD]

Yeah, I like William O'Neil's/IBD's techniques although I must admit to modifying the rules a bit for my own style. For instance, I will let a stock run longer and allow stocks up to a 20% loss to work through a shake-out after a run as long as the volume isn't too heavy. Its worked well for me, e.g. Las Vegas Sands (LVS) last year.

I sold GOOG last year as it drifted sideways in a loose consolidation, going nowhere. There are always more opportunities. I really like Opentable (OPEN) and MolyCorp (MCP) as two aggressive examples right now.

All the best - looking forward to hearing about your GOOG position!

 

[Guest3722A]

GOOG looks almost ready. Imho, if it opens up somewhere between maybe 540ish and 530ish and then sells off, I'd consider getting in eod.


Has anyone checked out SINA, BIDU, SOHU, LULU, BIIB or PCLN?

 

[RideHD]

I own both BIDU and PCLN with no plans to sell. They have both held up well through this year's volatility and maintain good institutional sponsorship. I think both would be solid additions on a pullback. PCLN is a bit extended, but it just isn't all that volatile and leads me to think it would be fine for new money. Both have great fundamentals.

SINA, SOHU and LULU have been on my radar, but I bought GMCR again this year after its monster breakout on huge volume as a result of its last earnings report. I think it remains a great candidate for new money.

I also own positions in AMZN and AAPL (older holdings still worth hanging onto), UA, BEXP, JAZZ, and AGQ (leveraged silver ETF). I also have the OCT 100 call on OPEN. I try to max out my positions at 12-15, trim any laggards, and add to winning positions until they become too extended. I currently have about 20-30% in cash, waiting on the next leg up I think is coming. No crystal ball though, so I wait.

 

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[Guest3722A]

No crystal ball though, so I wait.

I hear you about the "crystal ball" analysis in reference to the stock market and am moving my mindset to one of investing (when it comes to securities). I've had a trader's mindset for quite some time with stocks, but am now moving the trades to commodities as they are more geared for short-term trades in regulation, intra-day movement and taxes. Google did what I thought it might do, so far, and I think eod may be a decent entry for a long.

but I bought GMCR again this year after its monster breakout on huge volume as a result of its last earnings report. I think it remains a great candidate for new money.

Ahh yes, Green Mountain... good stuff! Have you taken a look at PEET?

and AAPL

Doubled profits off of the iPhone! ...amazing company.

 

[OptionTradingIQ]

Yeah, I like William O'Neil's/IBD's techniques although I must admit to modifying the rules a bit for my own style. For instance, I will let a stock run longer and allow stocks up to a 20% loss to work through a shake-out after a run as long as the volume isn't too heavy. Its worked well for me, e.g. Las Vegas Sands (LVS) last year.

I sold GOOG last year as it drifted sideways in a loose consolidation, going nowhere. There are always more opportunities. I really like Opentable (OPEN) and MolyCorp (MCP) as two aggressive examples right now.

All the best - looking forward to hearing about your GOOG position!

Yep, i'm really kene to open this GOOG position but i know i need to be patient and wait for it to build a base. It's at a key Fibonnaci level right now, so if that doesn't hold it could go south pretty quickly. Will re-evaluate next week.

 

[GlobalWealth]

I would consider selling the June 480/470 put spread for about 1.80. Seems like a pretty safe bet to me.

 

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[RideHD]

Ahh yes, Green Mountain... good stuff! Have you taken a look at PEET?



Doubled profits off of the iPhone! ...amazing company.

PEET went through some crazy gyrations in early March, didn't it? I was watching it and the huge volume that swung it up to 48, then down to 42, and then back up again so quickly kept me away. Honestly, I haven't gone back to re-evaluate it lately but will watch it.

Man, was anyone in on the Biogen (BIIB) action today? Crazy jump today in reaction to earnings and good news on their MS pill. Their competition was crushed, too, including the old favorite TEVA. Hate I wasn't in for the gain in BIIB but that was speculative play IMHO. I will stick with JAZZ for now.

 

[Guest3722A]

Imo, what the qqq's did today was impressive! I've been theorizing for a while now that since the Dow and S&P have broken to new highs since the tech bubble, but the Nasdaq hasn't followed and only since retraced 50% (from the low), I believe it is going to make a run out of the range it has been in for the last decade or so. It is my belief that this recent consolidation relates to what is going on with this index and today's close is making me think it is close to breaking out. ...next week may be it!

 

[Guest3722A]

Google did what I thought it might do, so far, and I think eod may be a decent entry for a long.

My pseudo entry in GOOG was solid and today it broke above the 10 ema. Many traders would add to their positions here and if it broke down and closed below the ten, they would take this addition off. As a speculation, it may bounce around between 540 and 550 in here a bit and MAY build it's base.

 

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[RideHD]

Looks like you are close on the GOOG call. It will be interesting to see if it holds here.

AGQ was quite a ride; I caught that one too late really. OPEN's CEO shake-up really shocked the market and hit the stock hard, perhaps too hard. Oh well. I have a couple of positions on hold for now but most are holding up fairly well.

GMCR is back to its old self!

 

[Guest3722A]

Yup green mountain is on a caffeine buzz again! That stock is really something else. I like how the company is positioned. Word is Dunkin is talking about going public and i have to confess, that is the coffee i have in my freezer and is my all-time favorite!

CHSI looks interesting along with DISH, and NNBR has some momentum behind it.
CRR (wow!), KAI, GGG, IPCM, ECPG looks like a breakout after a base, and maybe take a look at VSI. not too bad.

 

[OptionTradingIQ]

Looks like you are close on the GOOG call. It will be interesting to see if it holds here.

AGQ was quite a ride; I caught that one too late really. OPEN's CEO shake-up really shocked the market and hit the stock hard, perhaps too hard. Oh well. I have a couple of positions on hold for now but most are holding up fairly well.

GMCR is back to its old self!

Still holding out on GOOG, not liking the current state of the market with everything going on in silver, the dollar and the end of QE2. Also looks like a flag pattern may be developing similar to the one in late April.

 

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[RideHD]

Still holding out on GOOG, not liking the current state of the market with everything going on in silver, the dollar and the end of QE2. Also looks like a flag pattern may be developing similar to the one in late April.

I am holding out as well. Any buying done right now should be very selective.

On a positive note, Polypore (PPO) rewarded me nicely last week! I think they have a bright future. JAZZ not so much but holding.

I am no expert, but I am trying my hand at running a free website (some ads now) that has my portfolio and such on it. If your interested, PM me for the URL - not really trying to advertise but visits never hurt!

 

[GlobalWealth]

I would consider selling the June 480/470 put spread for about 1.80. Seems like a pretty safe bet to me.

Just for kicks, I looked this trade up today. If you would have sold it on 4/21 like I stated for $180, you could buy it back to close today for $63, giving you a $117 profit for less than 2 weeks holding period.

That works out to a 40% annualized return. Rinse and repeat.