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HOT TOPIC Chinese stock market

T

TheGreatBear

Guest
Oil is down $1 today.
Oil was down $3 last thursday with a small bounce on Friday. Monday markets were closed but it went up $1 in international trading.
Today gold is down $12 as well.
If upward momentum in oil is broken, it'll crash..hard..fast, something like $10 in a week as speculators liqudate and head for the exits.
Looks good for my sugar short....
 

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T

TheGreatBear

Guest
Down $1.75 as of now.
9:05 NYSE time.
Looks like we'll be seeing a debacle today.
My forecast: S&P will move up strongly, but will then recede in the next few days as people realize oil prices are still way above $100.
 
T

TheGreatBear

Guest
Close down over $4.
Expecting slight bounce on overnight trading and another down day tomorrow. Agri commodities fell sharply as well.
S&P strengthened for the moment.
 
T

TheGreatBear

Guest
I'm sorta preoccupied, but I'll leave a note.
Check out rice prices.
Check out wheat prices.
I feel these speculative climaxes mark the end of the agricultural bull market...
 
T

TheGreatBear

Guest
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TNX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p03587656016
10 year note yields rising above 200 day MA despite oil crashing.
Hm Looks like copper stockpiles are building up(though they fell by 5000 tons in Shanghai last week), I think sentiment is turning on commodities, copper is breaking technical lines.
Looks like it'll be another massacre day for oil. S&P premarket index futures are down though.
Chinese indices fall further.
If corn for ethanol use is discouraged, it looks like agricultural commodities may go into a bear market, unless there's a major drought.
 
T

TheGreatBear

Guest
Oil was down $2 today but then recovered after DOE inventory report. Peaked at around a +$1.5 gain, now back in the red.
Soybeans and gold weakened despite oil's leap.
This reminds me of wheat... Wheat was limit down one day and went from limit down to limit up on covering by a MFGlobal trader. And that was the peak...
 
T

TheGreatBear

Guest
A Chinese business newspaper conducted a poll online and found out that out of 15000 participants, 80+% believed that 3000 is the bottom for the Shanghai stock index.
I was joking to a friend when I heard some people talking about a bottom on the subway, we'll be seeing 2000 before yearend.
I'm only half joking.
 
T

TheGreatBear

Guest
Dammit, oil crashed but agri is soaring. Seems like all the BS floating about agri still isn't signalling a top. The masses score one, helped by the weather(which has obstructed planting of soybeans and corn) and rebellious Argentinian farmers..........
 
T

TheGreatBear

Guest
Unemployment jumps to 5.5% and Dollar weakened, with oil soaring, so my top picking was premature.
Commodities are crazy now, sugar still looks bearish though.
Bearish on equities worldwide. Fundamentals don't matter, if stocks fall, it'll cause people to lose confidence in Fed intervention. With rates at 2% and inflation popping higher the Fed can't do much more anyway, so the markets are in a pretty bad spot.
 
T

TheGreatBear

Guest
A Chinese business newspaper conducted a poll online and found out that out of 15000 participants, 80+% believed that 3000 is the bottom for the Shanghai stock index.
I was joking to a friend when I heard some people talking about a bottom on the subway, we'll be seeing 2000 before yearend.
I'm only half joking.
We're near lows. Newspaper says "irrational drop" so it seems we might see further declines in Shanghai.
 
T

TheGreatBear

Guest
Saudi increases oil production and oil prices soar.
The ironic thing is that if oil rises, people will feel Saudi's last bullet is spent and more people will jump on the bandwagon.
Soybeans near new highs, I was totally wrong about the agriculture commodity bull market ending. Well I wouldn't have been able to predict the floods...
Chinese stock market continues falling, nothing new there(2850)
 

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T

TheGreatBear

Guest
Oil $141
Gold looks like a buy here.
Stocks are falling. Fed can't lower rates anymore. It's ironic. Some people think the US is devaluing the Dollar on purpose, which it may be doing so intentionally or not. But it's causing commodity prices to soar(one of the reasons anyway, people jumping on the bandwagon now that the ECB is gonna raise rates and the Fed is still keeping them at 2%)and that's making inflation and the economic situation worse.
 
T

TheGreatBear

Guest
Despite poor fundamentals(supply/demand-wise) gold is technically bullish and with the ECB raising rates(and the USD weakening) and stocks falling(money flooding commodities) it's bullish,$920 when I posted last time, $945 now, it's a buy.
 
T

TheGreatBear

Guest
Market worries are piling up, more money is being printed, gold will soar.($970+ as of now) Technically bullish, breaking out of 3 month range. Extremely favorable risk reward.

Shanghai stocks are stabilizing. I don't think they'll hold up in the face of a world bear market. Who knows, supposedly valuations are very attractive(as market pundits would say, it's selling for a cheap 22 PE, with 20-30% growth each year, cheaper PEG than the S&P), but I believe earnings are bloated. Lots of reported earnings last year came from investment gains. Which will turn into investment losses this year. Macroeconomic outlook is good for China in the long run but it'll hurt plenty this year. Lots of firms threw their money into real estate and the stock market when they could not find a better home for their money. It is interesting to note that though housing prices have fallen in large cities, home prices are still up 10% on average in 70 cities in China.

The US equity markets were jubilant and bounced hard, especially financials, but now they're sober again. Took them 15 minutes to get over their hangover, looks like the market's confidence is ebbing. Think about it, in summer last year, it only took the Fed to cut discount rates 50 bps(surprise) to send US equities to a new high. Even Chinese equities rallied 20% over the next few months beginning on that day's cut. Now legislators are talking about lending FNM FRE $300 billion, Fed discount window is open to them, and confidence ebbs in a few minutes.

I still believe soybeans/corn will face an oversupply in the coming years. Demand for plant oil(soybean oil) etc grows at about 5% worldwide, but there are more than enough acres to go around. Floods might have hurt this year's crop, but if we get rid of corn ethanol, freeing 3 billion bushels, there'll be enough land to feed the world and send food prices down down down. Of course lots of the rise is from people sending their money from stocks into soybeans.
Interestingly, soybeans and corn are down today. They've been up on most days the market is down. Are we seeing a turn?
 
T

TheGreatBear

Guest
Gold corrected due to oil's large drop.($930 now) Soybeans and corn literally crashed 10-20% from highs.
I believe the main reason for oil's drop is Semgroup's bankruptcy. It was imperfectly hedged which caused it to go into bankruptcy and cover shorts in oil futures. The market sensed it and was gouging them so that kept oil prices high. After they finished covering everyone just sold. Bernanke's more sober outlook on the economy and the OPEC demand outlook cut was just a trigger.(As was Bush's well-timed offshore drilling talk... even an optimistic outlook would be that it takes 5 years to get that oil onto the market)

I believe the main issue that will drive oil prices in the next few weeks will be "The United States has given Iran until Aug. 2 to respond to the latest — and most serious — offer of cooperation". If an unexpected truce is reached(which I believe will be reached, the US has to deal with Afghanistan first, allies are not coping well... to put things in perspective the USSR had 120,000 troops in Afghan and failed) oil prices will probably crash. For the short term. Any dip to around $100 is a buy.

As to Chinese stocks, they are stabilizing and may be nearing a bottom. No buys yet, not calling a bottom yet, but it's wait and see. Fund holdings of cash are near records highs, and corresponding holdings of stocks are near record lows. So this might indicate panic selling. If oil falls hard then a rally may begin in Shanghai. Some economist in the US, Kruger or something, suggested that since so many Chinese were afraid of a post-olympic slump, stocks in China may actually rise after the Olympics. It could be possible.
 
T

TheGreatBear

Guest
Hmm gold 910, I misread this one, oil prices falling so sharply probably weighed on it. I'm going to have to cut losses even though it might bounce back right away *grimaces*. Waiting for a better entry I guess. Let's see if my guess on oil works out.
 
T

TheGreatBear

Guest
July CPI 6.3%, "better than expected"
It's funny, these analysts are really weird. Everyone knows pork prices have been falling for 21 weeks straight, everyone sees all sorts of stuff falling and yet the analysts assumed price inflation was gonna get worse, because they got caught into that mentality.
More later.
 
T

TheGreatBear

Guest
Short CAF. 10% premium over NAV with China in a bear market. Short short short.
 
T

TheGreatBear

Guest
Oil bounces off 200 day MA, high jump in oil inventory, but oil prices eeked out a gain yesterday. Oil is rather strong today as of now, with many currencies showing an oversold bounce. Soybeans are pushing upwards again and we may see some upside in commodities for now.
One thing that irks me, or rather reinforces my convictions is how many analysts are quick to call this the end of the commodity bull market. That doesn't really happen at peaks does it?
 

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T

TheGreatBear

Guest
Downgrading oil at $117. Dollar is rather strong and the only news that supports oil is Russian bluffs. I don't think the Russians will take any actions that will disrupt oil supply since the Europeans are pretty meek anyway.
Rogers and Goldman restating their great expectations for oil. So I think we should leave oil gold and etc alone right now.
 
T

TheGreatBear

Guest
Chart of the Day - www.chartoftheday.com
September is the weakest month historically for stocks.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac | Fire the bazooka | Economist.com
Between them, the firms have more than $200 billion of debt to roll over in the next month, and the markets are queasy.
I think this will be one of the biggest issues for the market to face in Sept,
Oil is rather weak despite Gustav and Russia. Dollar gained strength despite weak income/personal spending data so it may continue the uptrend. Weaker oil prices may help bolster markets though Sept is good to bet against.
 
T

TheGreatBear

Guest
European Central Bank and Bank of England are deciding rates today. British pound has acted strongly against the USD after the rate announcement. Since both currencies have literally crashed over the last month or two (over 10% fall) due to expectations of smaller interest rate differentials, a "sell rumor buy fact" situation may take place.
So far we are seeing it today, as the GBP moves strongly against the USD after rate announcement.
 
T

TheGreatBear

Guest
I'm buying some gold here. I believe that confidence is eroded now even in money markets... The huge liquidation in gold we saw a few months ago will pave the way for a new bull market.
 

Kevin88660

Silver Contributor
I've Read UNSCRIPTED
Speedway Pass
Feb 8, 2019
620
563
241
Singapore
Institutional money has been building bullish position in China for a year. Chinese market has been flat. I am building my position for the next rally in Chinese equities.
 

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