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Chinese stock market

Discussion in 'Investing/Trading/Cryptocurrency/Altcoins' started by imirza, Oct 28, 2007.

  1. imirza
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    I notice a lot of financial commentators are referring to the Chinese stock market as a 'bubble' and comparing it to the Nasdaq of 1999. Not too long ago Goldman Sachs and a few other Wall Street firms came out with a sell rating on China citing excessive valuation or something to that extent. I however believe the Chinese stock market will continue moving higher possibly doubling or more in the next 12 months. I remember when people were screaming bubble back in 2003-04 when the US real estate prices were rocketing. The RE market surged even higher in 2005 on the back of this. Infact by mid to late 2005, a lot of those people who were screaming 'real estate bubble' were busy concocting reasons to justify the RE growth citing solid fundamentals and other reasons which ultimately proved false.

    I don't believe a bubble is a bubble until even the most die hard critics join in and agree the excessive price rise is justified . Happened back in late 1999 early 2000 with the Nasdaq when everyone tried to offer a rational explanation for the price increase.
    I believe this will happen with the Chinese stock market as people currently screaming 'bubble' will probably join in the next 12 months and agree the price rise is based on solid fundamentals :hurray:

    When I start hearing of seminars titled ' How to make money in Chinese stocks' , when I start seeing books titled " Shanghai Composite 100,000" at the local Barnes and Nobles and when my neighbours and people I meet at cocktail parties start talking to me about how much money they are making in Chinese stocks, then that will be the time to sell China. Not before.
     
  2. TheGreatBear
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    I'm betting on a sharp fall after the Olypmics. There might be a correction now or then in between though...
    *Offers imirza another glass of champagne*
     
  3. MJ DeMarco
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    MJ DeMarco Raving Lunatic Staff Member Read Millionaire Fastlane I've Read UNSCRIPTED FASTLANE INSIDER Speedway Pass LEGENDARY CONTRIBUTOR Summit Attendee

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    I true sell signal. Dumb money always shows up at the end!:chatter:
     
  4. piranha526
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  5. MJ DeMarco
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  6. china
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    Isn't this sort of an "apples and oranges" comparison? How do the Nasdaq and USA homebuilders compare to Japan's bubble market that lasted over many more years?

    Charts are pretty to look at, but all I can deduce from this chart is that "things go up in a bubble" and "US homebuilders and the Nasdaq had similar runs."

    There are also some people who think that the Naz is going to continue to fall and that we are merely taking a pause in falling (the dead cat bounce).

    Anyway, I don't think you can time the Shanghai index according to the Nasdaq composite index or the homebuilders index.
     
  7. piranha526
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    I’ll start by saying one thing: I am not trying to throw punches here BUT:
    What you just said shows your lack of understanding of markets in general. US in 2000, US in 1987, US in 1929, US in 1800's, China, UK, Holland in the 1600’s: It’s all human psychology.

    Patterns repeat because humans will never change. Markets are markets, whether you trade stocks, commodities, forex, trade in the US, trade in China, etc…

    No one is trying to time the market but history does show us that bubbles don’t rise and fall so quickly. That’s all!

    The NASDAQ and China markets have everything in common: HUMANS TRADE THEM! HUMANS WILL NEVER CHANGE, EVER!

    MJ, we can deduce that the bubble most likely has legs. That’s all. CONTINUE TO TRADE THE TREND and don’t try to pick a top. When it reverses, you will know – then get off the trend. That’s all – no predictions here!
     
  8. china
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    I think that was pretty much what I was trying to say. You can't make timing predictions based on charts like these.

    One question for you: How can Americans buy stocked listed on the Shanghei stock market? Most Chinese stocks listed here in the US are on the Nasdaq market.
     
  9. TheGreatBear
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    Looks like the Chinese market might correct now...
    No time to post a chart sorry.
     
  10. TheGreatBear
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    EDIT: It is at the 50 day MA though it looks heavy, who knows.
     
  11. TheGreatBear
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    I posted at open, Shanghai indices were down 70-90 points, now its down 271 at close.
    Sliced thru support like fruitcake. Seems like a correction is coming.
     
  12. china
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    I think the only way we can bet on the Shanghai market from the US is via a fund or ETF.
     
  13. TheGreatBear
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    CAF and FXI are showing topping patterns as well...
    I don't think we have seen the top yet, I believe this is still a correction for Chinese markets, but what do I know. I'll see what the market does...
    So far US markets have been weak, S&P slicing thru 200 day MA so I'll predict more blood for Shanghai tomorrow if things don't turn around.
     
  14. TheGreatBear
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    Frightening CPI numbers but Chinese market stabilizes and heads up today... Hmm...
     
  15. TheGreatBear
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    20% correction in 2 months, volume shrank and expanded now on accumulation. All-in.
     
  16. TheGreatBear
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    Bank reserve ratios increased, stocks gap down at open but close very strong. The bull trend continues.
     
  17. TheGreatBear
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    Inflation hits new highs. Strong accumulation in indices plus poor sentiment. US markets stabilizing. So.. still bullish for now I think.
     
  18. TheGreatBear
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    US markets look solid, rates were hiked again for the 6th time in China and Shanghai continued a strong gain, after a brief gap down. Bullish all the way.
     
  19. TheGreatBear
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    Somehow, this chart doesn't bode well to me. I feel like selling stocks, they're nearing resistance and world markets appear weak. I'll sell half(heavy in mining, gold stocks etc) and maybe look for other better stocks. This just doesn't feel right to me.
     
  20. TheGreatBear
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    Cleared out. The selloff in the Western markets is finally hitting Chinese markets. I wish stock index futures were out now... This is like seeing a load of money but being unable to get it.
     
  21. TheGreatBear
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    Reserve requirement ratio raised by 0.5%.
    Every time this happened in the past, the market would gap down at open and move up strongly.
    Today, the market gapped down, moved up but has been selling off for the last 2 hours it is currently testing 50 day MA and down 2.3% with no end to the selling in sight.
     
  22. TheGreatBear
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    A chart of today's close.
     
  23. TheGreatBear
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    This looks like a buy to me. All in. I'm betting this is a correction and the Chinese market is still in a bull market.
    Maybe I'm wrong, but if I'm right, some of these stocks are at 200 day MA, and will rise a lot in the coming months.
     
  24. TheGreatBear
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    Bounces appear to be weak. I believe it is still bullish, though of course the Western slowdown will affect China sometime, it won't be now. That's my bet. I've probably have an over 50% chance of being right(most corrections in a bull market aren't followed by a bear market AND the Shanghai index dropped like 18% in 6 days AND I have a 12% profit cushion already) and a huge upside if I'm right and limited downside if I'm wrong.
     
  25. TheGreatBear
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    I will withdraw my bullish stance as newspaper polls show market participants to be bullish (read: hopeful). I will be selling off my stakes tomorrow.
     

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