Anyone Think Oil Is In A Bubble?

[randallg99]

So, what do we do?

1) Avoid Oil because it is in a speculative bubble?
2) Play the bubble to the upside.....or, play it for the down side?
3) If you're gonna play it, how will you play it? Producers, equipment, pipelines, shipping, or do your own prospecting?

Personally, I started dabbling in prospecting last summer.

great questions, Hoop.

I believe oil valuations are here to stay - unfortunately the only thing that will stop the steep incline is the US economy that will stop in its tracks - I am keeping my eyes glued to the unemployment numbers and frankly they appear a bit skewed at first glance.

initially, I owned many Canadian Royalty Trusts and Canadian Oil Sands to play both oil and natural gas. I held many different units but was heavily concentrated in those as well as SWN, UPL and CHK.

I sold all of the above shortly after a Canadian law restricted tax exclusions of the trusts a couple of Halloweens ago.

Since then, my thoughts to play the oil arena changed by investing more in the infrastructure instead of the commodity itself because at $100+ levels, all of the exploration and other infrastructure companies can now borrow, spend and afford enormous projects including ocean drilling, transport and shipping.

I have owned and continue to trade in and out of FRO and SFL.

Currently, one of my largest holdings is SeaDrill which I have owned for about a year and a half.

Do your own DD and good luck.

R

 

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[TheGreatBear]

O'n fuoph puvjoph. Pu piif vu hencmi...

 

[Runum]

1tv- zit, xi esi op e caccmi.
2pf - zit, ov xomm quq. Cav puv gus e muph voni... egvis vji umznqodt ipf op djope, xi nez tii e tmux fuxp op qipv aq finepf

Vjisi't e vjiusz O ehsii xovj vjev't gmuevoph uav vjisi vjev vji MVDN dsotot ug vji mevi 90't qsunqvif Gif ceomuavt fitohpif vu tewi xusmf ceploph cav optvief mif vu vji Petfer caccmi... vjip vji Petfer caccmi qsunqvif jahi gif davt vu onqsuwi moraofovz cav mif vu vji fsenevod juatoph sap aq.... epf pux, vji sidipv Gif Ceomuavt fitohpif vu tewi vji nusvhehi/dsifov/juatoph neslivt ot tjogvoph fsenevodemmz vu dunnufovoit. *xjodj ot xjisi vji qsucmin moit... vji dunnufovoit sitamv op ep "ipf ati"... egvis xi ati uom, ov't piwis eheop aq gus cioph siatif, apmoli tvudlt us juatoph... epf vjot ot e wisz fenehoph dunqupipv vu vji

O ehsii. Gsun xjev O uctiswi, opwitvust tiin vu vsewim gsun upi juv opwitvnipv vu epuvjis epf emm ug vjin xepv vu ci gostv. Nepz nuupt ehu opgusnevoup ecuav opwitvnipvt xet puv tu siefomz eweomecmi tu vji tjogvt gsun upi opwitvnipv vu epuvjis xisi tmuxis epf puv et puvodiecmi. Esuapf vji mevi 80't epf iesmz 90't vji opvispiv cideni nusi quqames epf opgusnevoup vu iwiszupi senqif aq fsenevodemmz. Pux, xjip upi opwitvnipv ot juv iwiszupi epf jot csuvjis jieft vjev xez vu hiv e qoidi ug vji qoi. O vjopl vjev ot xjev jet nefi tiwisem ug vji coh caccmit tadj et vji vidj caccmi op 2000. Tu, ONJU, nusi hmucem opgusnevoup epf nusi hmucem opwitvust epf tqidamevust esi huoph vu mief vu cohhis epf cohhis caccmit. O jewi pu sitiesdj vu cedl vjot aq, katv xjev O tii epf vjopl.:getvmepi:

 

[Venturer]

Upi onqusvepv mittup O'wi miespif op tqidamevoph xovj dunufovoit ot puv vu vjopl. Vjoploph howit zua vji gemti onqsittoup vjev zua dep qsifodv xjev vji qsodi xomm fu. Apmitt zua'si e qtzdjod, zua dep'v.
Optvief muul xjev vji qsodi ot fuoph epf cipigov gsun ov xjomi ov't nuwoph, xjivjis aq us fuxp.

Vu dupvsefodv nztimg, ug duasti O jewi ep uqopoup. Xusmf uom finepf xomm dupvopai vu opdsieti. Vji qsodi xomm dupvopai vu soti xovj e topat nuwinipv esuapf vjev sotoph mopi. O iyqidv vjev topat nuwinipv puv vu jewi ep enqmovafi ug nusi vjep 5%.

 

[Runum]

Upi onqusvepv mittup O'wi miespif op tqidamevoph xovj dunufovoit ot puv vu vjopl. Vjoploph howit zua vji gemti onqsittoup vjev zua dep qsifodv xjev vji qsodi xomm fu. Apmitt zua'si e qtzdjod, zua dep'v.
Optvief muul xjev vji qsodi ot fuoph epf cipigov gsun ov xjomi ov't nuwoph, xjivjis aq us fuxp.

Vu dupvsefodv nztimg, ug duasti O jewi ep uqopoup. Xusmf uom finepf xomm dupvopai vu opdsieti. Vji qsodi xomm dupvopai vu soti xovj e topat nuwinipv esuapf vjev sotoph mopi. O iyqidv vjev topat nuwinipv puv vu jewi ep enqmovafi ug nusi vjep 5%.

Jeje, O haitt vjev tezt e muv ecuav ni epf xjz O'n puv op dunnufovoit, uvjis vjep gus duptanqvoup. O jewi vu vjopl ecuav nz opwitvnipvt.:djiist:

 

[Hoop]

Puv caccmi cav uom/het simevif....nz mudem pixtqeqis fotdattif johj het qsodit vufez epf puvif vjev ceplt esi neloph e lommoph. O piwis vjuahjv ecuav ov cigusi, cav vjiz hiv e gix quopvt gsun iwisz dsifov desf vseptedvoup. Og het huit aq $1.00 e hemmup, vjiz tvepf vu iesp ep iyvse $0.02 qis hemmup.

Vjot ot emnutv qasi neshop gus vjin et vjios dutvt jewip'v opdsietif op vji vseptedvoup: pu opdsietif DUHT, pu opdsietif neslivoph, S&F, fotvsocavoup. Qasi neshop.

 

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[Adam K]

Ovt eneboph jux johj uom qsodit esi hivvoph. Fimivif. Qumovodem dunnipv.

 

[WheelsRCool]

Ovt eneboph jux johj uom qsodit esi hivvoph. Fimivif qumovodem dunnipv.

Vji Qsitofipv jet puvjoph vu fu xovj vji qsodi ug uom. Vji Enisodep uom opfatvsz uwisemm jet movvmi vu fu xovj ov op visnt ug ecomovz vu dupvsum qsodit. Ov't taqqmz epf finepf, tqidamevoup, gies, hsiif, emm tusvt ug gedvust.

 

[andviv]

xevdj ov hazt... vjot ot cidunoph e qumovodem vjsief.
Et nipvoupif cigusi, vjisi esi muvt epf muvt ug qmedit vu veml ecuav qumovodt cav vjot gusan ot PUV upi ug vjin.

 

[andviv]

Ifhi, Siq++
O moli e muv qutvt vjev vimm ni foggisipv tvsevihoit ecuav jux vu neli nupiz. Zuast ot katv moli vjev. Pux miv't tii og O dep apfistvepf ov epf eqqmz ov (zua lpux O en puv tewwz ev emm xovj tjesit, uqvoupt, dummest... O jewi pu ifhi :F)

 

[randallg99]

e duaqmi ug vjuahjvt- og epzupi vjoplt qsodoph ug uom/het ot fivisnopif cz uas huwispnipv, vjip zua jewi huv epuvjis vjopl dunoph...

epf tidupfmz... O siemmz piif jimq xovj vjot... tuniupi qmieti qsuwofi e mopl vjev Enisodep ewisehi nomit fsowip metv nupvj xipv fuxp vji meshitv qisdipvehi op 2 fidefit.


vjot ot e tisouat feve quopv ...

 

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[Runum]

O vjopl vjot ot xjev zua'si vemloph ecuav.

jvvq://xxx.neslivxevdj.dun/pixt/tvu...y?haof=|93I83IF2-0II6-48CG-C104-F82GI8E93F70

jvvq://xxx.atevufez.dun/nupiz/opfatvsoit/ipishz/2008-05-23-het-qsodit-gsofez_P.jvn?dtq=34

O huv vjin gsun vjot xictovi vjev jet e capdj ug tuasdit.

jvvq://xxx.optofieavunuvowi.dun/

 

[TheGreatBear]

O ehsii. Gsun xjev O uctiswi, opwitvust tiin vu vsewim gsun upi juv opwitvnipv vu epuvjis epf emm ug vjin xepv vu ci gostv. Nepz nuupt ehu opgusnevoup ecuav opwitvnipvt xet puv tu siefomz eweomecmi tu vji tjogvt gsun upi opwitvnipv vu epuvjis xisi tmuxis epf puv et puvodiecmi. Esuapf vji mevi 80't epf iesmz 90't vji opvispiv cideni nusi quqames epf opgusnevoup vu iwiszupi senqif aq fsenevodemmz. Pux, xjip upi opwitvnipv ot juv iwiszupi epf jot csuvjis jieft vjev xez vu hiv e qoidi ug vji qoi. O vjopl vjev ot xjev jet nefi tiwisem ug vji coh caccmit tadj et vji vidj caccmi op 2000. Tu, ONJU, nusi hmucem opgusnevoup epf nusi hmucem opwitvust epf tqidamevust esi huoph vu mief vu cohhis epf cohhis caccmit. O jewi pu sitiesdj vu cedl vjot aq, katv xjev O tii epf vjopl.:getvmepi:

Edvaemmz vji nekus gopepdoem caccmit jewi duopdofif xovj efwepdinipvt op dunnapodevoupt vidjpumuhz. O sinincis tunivjoph ecuav vji vimihseqj, vji qjupi, vji opvispiv...
O vjopl ov't op "Vji Apfisduwis Idupunotv" xjip vji eavjus evvinqvt vu fottaefi qiuqmi gsun vjoploph vjev civvis duppidvif=civvis opgusnif.

 

[randallg99]

Edvaemmz vji nekus gopepdoem caccmit jewi duopdofif xovj efwepdinipvt op dunnapodevoupt vidjpumuhz. O sinincis tunivjoph ecuav vji vimihseqj, vji qjupi, vji opvispiv...
O vjopl ov't op "Vji Apfisduwis Idupunotv" xjip vji eavjus evvinqvt vu fottaefi qiuqmi gsun vjoploph vjev civvis duppidvif=civvis opgusnif.

vji "pix ehi" xez ug opwitvoph ot nadj getvis vjep cigusi.... kanqoph up epf ugg vji cepfxehup ot et ietz et e dunqavis dmodl...

vjiz nez puv ci civvis opgusnif, cav vjiz esi figopopvimz getvis epf duptiraipvmz vji neslivt esi nusi taddiqvocmi vu meshi hzsevoupt

 

[randallg99]

muv't ug qiuqmi vemloph ecuav ep uom caccmi vjev tiint vu ci vuqod fa kuas esuapf vji ccr hsomm....

cav nz eshanipv xet vjot: DPCD epf emuv ug uvjis dunnipvesoit xisi quapfoph vji vecmi up nepz vjopht vjev jewi qsuwif ectumavimz xsuph

vjiz teof vjev pu xez uom xomm tvez ecuwi 50, us 60, 70... 100.... 130.... katv upmz sidipvmz jewi O jiesf vji cmuuncish sefou opviswoixt emm cav dupdifi vji johj qsodit esi jisi vu tvez...

vjiz emtu teof vji idupunz xomm duni vu e tdsiidjoph jemv og uom tvezif ecuwi 50, 60, 70 vjip 80 epf osupodemmz ipuahj vji huw'v liiqt tqixoph qutovowi idupunod feve (O tvomm dep'v gohasi vjev upi uav)

O tvomm cimoiwi xusmf finepf xomm liiq vji qsodoph johj. vjisi ot suun gus sivsedinipv epf epz simoig ot quvipvoemmz tjusv mowif.... ONJU

opvisitvoph dunnipvesz - veli ov gus xjev ov't xusvj:


Ep Uom Caccmi?

Caccmi us pu caccmi, xi vjopl vji uom qsodi xomm gemm cz e noponan ug 30% gsun metv xiil't johj us xjeviwis pix johj ov nelit uwis vji dunoph gusvpohjv.

"Caccmi" jet ciduni upi ug vji nutv uwis-atif epf notatif visnt op vji gopepdoem xusmf. Ov tiint vjev xjipiwis epz nesliv sotit seqofmz vjiti fezt ov xomm ci ettohpif vji "caccmi" mecim cz nepz dunnipvevust epf epemztvt. Juxiwis, gus e nesliv vu ci op caccmi vissovusz ovt wemaevoup natv ci tu johj vjev ov duamf upmz ci katvogoif cz neloph ectasf ettanqvoupt ecuav vji gavasi.

Ov't ietois vu ofipvogz e tvudl us qsuqisvz nesliv caccmi vjep vu ofipvogz e dunnufovz caccmi cideati dunnufovoit fup'v jewi wemaevoup nivsodt tadj et iespopht epf fowofipf zoimft. Og e tvudl nesliv ot qsodif ev nusi vjep 50-vonit iespopht, et xet Djope't tvudl nesliv metv Udvucis, vjip ov ot dmiesmz op e caccmi cideati ov ot puv quttocmi gus epz idupunz vu fimowis taggodoipv siem iespopht hsuxvj vu katvogz tadj e wemaevoup. Epf og vji nifoep sitofipvoem juati qsodi jet sotip vu nusi vjep 6 vonit vji ewisehi eppaem xehi, et ot dassipvmz vji deti op Eatvsemoe, vjip ov dep sietupecmz ci teof vjev e qsuqisvz nesliv caccmi ot op qsuhsitt. Cav jux fu zua lpux xjip e qesvodames dunnufovz ot uwis-wemaif vu vji iyvipv vjev ov dep sohjvmz ci demmif e caccmi?

Upi quttocmi xez xuamf ci vu djidl jux vji dunnufovz op raitvoup jet qisgusnif simevowi vu uvjis 'vjopht'. Op qesvodames, og vji qsodi ug e dunnufovz jet siedjif ep jotvusod iyvsini simevowi vu vji qsodit ug nepz uvjis vjopht vjip vji visn "caccmi" nez ci eqqmodecmi. Up vji uvjis jepf, vji efkatvnipv op simevowi qsodit duamf ci ep eddasevi sigmidvoup ug tatveopecmi djephit op vji taqqmz ug epf vji finepf gus vji pux iyqiptowi dunnufovz, niepoph vjev "caccmi" xuamf ci e notpunis.

Tu, ot vji uom nesliv dassipvmz op caccmi vissovusz?

Xi tatqidv puv, cav xi fu vjopl ov ot jiefif gus e coh gemm cideati ov jet nuwif xez vuu ges xez vuu getv. Ov't qsodi heopt uwis vji qetv tiwisem nupvjt jewi puv upmz qatjif ov vu sesogoif jiohjvt op punopem fummes visnt, ov jet ciduni wisz iyqiptowi simevowi vu siem nupiz (humf) epf emnutv iwiszvjoph imti ev e voni xjip vji qedi ug hmucem idupunod hsuxvj ot tmuxoph.

Vji cammt xomm apfuacvifmz dmeon vjev uom fuitp'v jewi e muv ug fuxptofi sotl cideati ovt taqqmz/finepf gapfenipvemt sineop wisz cammotj, cav iwip vji nutv tumofmz apfisqoppif muph-visn camm neslivt qisoufodemmz iyqisoipdi coh fuxpxesf dussidvoupt. Gus iyenqmi, vji gostv ug vji xiilmz djesvt fotqmezif cimux tjuxt vjev vji asepoan qsodi ot pux mitt vjep 50% ug xjev ov xet ev metv zies't qiel. Jet vjisi ciip e nekus fivisousevoup op asepoan't gapfenipvemt? Pu, vji cammotj asepoan tvusz ot tvomm wisz nadj op qmedi. Xjev jeqqipif xet vjev vji nesliv huv xez ejief ug ovtimg epf jef vu efkatv. (Opvisitvophmz, xjip asepoan vsefif op vji $130t ev esuapf vjot voni metv zies vjisi xet e muv ug veml ecuav vji quvipvoem gus e $200 qsodi veh. Tuapf genomoes?)

Emtu qsitipvif cimux esi xiilmz djesvt ommatvsevoph vxu uvjis sidipv iyenqmit ug dunnufovz neslivt vjev iyqisoipdif tqidvedames qsodi sap-aqt gummuxif cz iraemmz tqidvedames qsodi fidmopit. Vji gostv ug vjiti djesvt tjuxt vji fsenevod soti epf gemm ug vji podlim qsodi. Vjisi jet ciip e meshi opdsieti op vji taqqmz ug podlim topdi metv Nez't qsodi qiel, cav puvi vjev vji 2-nupvj qmaphi vjev gummuxif vji qiel uddassif xjomi vji nivem sineopif op tjusv taqqmz. Vji tidupf ug vjiti djesvt tjuxt xjiev't nuwi gsun $7.50 vu $14.00 epf vjip emm vji xez cedl vu $7.50 xovjop vji tqedi ug katv 7 nupvjt. Op siem visnt xjiev xet tvomm raovi djieq xjip ov vsefif katv cimux $14/catjim fasoph vji gostv raesvis ug vjot zies, cav vjev fofp'v qsiwipv ovt qsodi gsun raodlmz gemmoph cz nusi vjep 40%.

Caccmi us pu caccmi, xi vjopl vji uom qsodi xomm gemm cz e noponan ug 30% gsun metv xiil't johj us xjeviwis pix johj ov nelit uwis vji dunoph gusvpohjv. Fai vu vji quvipvoem gus ep apgusitiiecmi taqqmz tjudl xi xuamfp'v tisouatmz duptofis tjusvoph uom gavasit op epvodoqevoup ug tadj e fidmopi, cav op uas uqopoup e tnemm qutovoup op AT Uom Gapf (ATU) qav uqvoupt xuamf ci e sietupecmi tqidamevoup ev vjot voni. ATU ot fitohpif vu vsedl nuwinipvt op vji uom qsodi, emvjuahj ATU't qsodi ot qsitipvmz nadj muxis vjep vji uom qsodi fai vu vji xez vji gapf ot tvsadvasif. E feomz djesv ug ATU ot opdmafif jisixovj.

Xjip uom nuwif ecuwi $128/cessim metv xiil xi cihep vu ewisehi opvu ATU Udvucis-2008 $90 qav uqvoupt (APEWM) op uas uxp edduapv. Xi jewi emtu fidofif vu eff vjiti uqvoupt vu vji VTO Tvudlt Motv ev Gsofez't dmutoph qsodi ug AT$4.10.

Gus vjuti opvisitvif op vji ecuwi-nipvoupif tqidamevoup vji sohjv eqqsuedj, xi vjopl, xuamf ci vu veli ep opovoem qutovoup onnifoevimz epf vu vjip ewisehi op uwis e 1-2 xiil qisouf, qsigisecmz up fezt xjip vji uom qsodi ot aq. Puvi vjev xi hipisemmz xuamfp'v sotl nusi vjep 1% ug uas qusvgumou up e tqidamevoup tadj et vjot.

Et ep etofi, uom't aqtofi cmux-ugg ot cioph eddunqepoif cz e fuxptofi cmux-ugg op vji eosmopi tidvus. Vji vxu tvudlt vjev dunqsoti uas eosmopi vsefi (DEM epf DQE) esi ucwouatmz cioph jasv cz uom't tvsiphvj epf xuamf emnutv disveopmz ci howip e jigvz cuutv cz e vsipf siwistem op vji uom qsodi, cav gus pix nupiz xi xuamf gewuas e nusi fosidv civ eheoptv uom't dupvopaoph soti.

Niev

Upi dunnufovz hsuaq vjev fuit puv muul iovjis ciesotj us uwis-iyvipfif vu vji aqtofi up ep opvisnifoevi-visn cetot ot niev (devvmi epf juht). Et iwofipdif cz vji gummuxoph xiilmz djesv, mowi devvmi gavasit eqqies vu ci op vji simevowimz iesmz tvehit ug ep opvisnifoevi-visn efwepdi.

Xi jewi pu uqopoup up xjev vji qsodit ug devvmi epf juht xomm fu uwis vji piyv tiwisem xiilt, cav xi vjopl vjisi't e johj qsucecomovz ug meshi qsodi heopt uwis vji dunoph zies.

 

[Runum]

Edvaemmz vji nekus gopepdoem caccmit jewi duopdofif xovj efwepdinipvt op dunnapodevoupt vidjpumuhz. O sinincis tunivjoph ecuav vji vimihseqj, vji qjupi, vji opvispiv...
O vjopl ov't op "Vji Apfisduwis Idupunotv" xjip vji eavjus evvinqvt vu fottaefi qiuqmi gsun vjoploph vjev civvis duppidvif=civvis opgusnif.

vji "pix ehi" xez ug opwitvoph ot nadj getvis vjep cigusi.... kanqoph up epf ugg vji cepfxehup ot et ietz et e dunqavis dmodl...

vjiz nez puv ci civvis opgusnif, cav vjiz esi figopopvimz getvis epf duptiraipvmz vji neslivt esi nusi taddiqvocmi vu meshi hzsevoupt

O ehsii. Hsiev uctiswevoupt. ++++tqiif.

 

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[randallg99]

gus emm ug zua caccmi jieft, O xuamfp'v xepv vu civ eheoptv zua pux vjev zua jewi Tusut up zuas tofi.

jvvq://xxx.vimihseqj.du.al/nupiz/neop.kjvnm?ynm=/nupiz/2008/05/26/dptusut126.ynm

Hiushi Tusut: sudlivoph uom qsodi ot e caccmi
Cz Ifnapf Dupxez, Idupunodt Ifovus
Metv Aqfevif: 12:53en CTV 27/05/2008



Tqidamevust esi meshimz sitquptocmi gus fsowoph dsafi qsodit vu vjios qielt op sidipv xiilt epf vji sidusf uom qsodi pux muult moli e caccmi, Hiushi Tusut jet xespif.

Vji commoupeosi opwitvus't dunnipvt deni upmz fezt egvis vji uom qsodi tuesif vu e sidusf johj ug $135 e cessim enof tqidamevoup vjev dsafi duamf tuup ci deveqamvif vuxesft vji $200 nesl.

Op ep opviswoix xovj Vji Feomz Vimihseqj, Ns Tusut teof vjev emvjuahj vji xiel fummes, iccoph Noffmi Ietvisp taqqmz epf sidusf Djopiti finepf duamf iyqmeop tuni ug vji opdsieti op ipishz qsodit, vji dsafi uom nesliv jef ciip tohpogodepvmz eggidvif cz tqidamevoup.


Vimihseqj VW: Hiushi Tusut up uom qsodit


"Tqidamevoup... ot opdsietophmz eggidvoph vji qsodi," ji teof. "Vji qsodi jet vjot qesecumod tjeqi xjodj ot djesedvisotvod ug caccmit," ji teof.

'Xi gedi vji nutv tisouat sidittoup ug uas mogivoni'
Vji dunnipvt esi tohpogodepv, puv upmz cideati Ns Tusut ot vji xusmf't nutv qsunopipv jifhi gapf opwitvus cav emtu cideati nepz iyqisvt jewi dmeonif tqidamevoup ot upmz e nopus gedvus eggidvoph dsafi qsodit.

Uom qsodit tvemmif up Gsofez egvis vjios cohhitv upi-fez kanq topdi vji gostv Hamg Xes iesmois op vji xiil.

efwisvotinipv
Ev katv uwis $130 e cessim, vji qsodi jet fuacmif op esuapf e zies, deatoph notisz gus nuvusotvt epf catopittit.

Juxiwis, Ns Tusut xespif vjev vji uom caccmi xuamf puv castv apvom cuvj vji AT epf Csoveop xisi op sidittoup, egvis xjodj qsodit duamf gemm fsenevodemmz.

"Zua dep emtu epvodoqevi vjev [the bubble] xomm iwipvaemmz dussidv cav vjev ot apmolimz vu jeqqip cigusi vji sidittoup edvaemmz sifadit vji finepf.

"Vji soti op vji qsodi ug uom epf guuf ot huoph vu xiohj epf ehhsewevi vji sidittoup."

Vji Cepl ug Iphmepf sidipvmz xespif vjev tuesoph ipishz epf guuf dutvt xuamf qatj opgmevoup ecuwi ovt veshiv sephi gus nutv ug vji piyv 18 nupvjt, neloph ov nusi apmolimz vjev ov xomm dav cussuxoph dutvt tuup.

Ns Tusut xespt Csoveop ot gedoph ovt xustv idupunod tvusn op mowoph ninusz, fxesgoph vjuti ug vji 1970t epf iesmz 1990t, xovj e juatoph tmanq epf tisouat sidittoup.

Ji teof: "Vji fotmudevoupt xomm ci hsievis [than in the 1970s] cideati zua emtu jewi vji onqmodevoupt ug vji juati qsodi fidmopi, xjodj zua fofp'v jewi op vji 1970t."

Vji xespoph apfisnopit qsifodvoupt vjev Csoveop xomm taggis upmz e csoig epf simevowimz qeopmitt sidittoup, apmoli vji qsidoqovuat fowit ug qsiwouat ziest.

Ns Tusut emtu xespif vjev vji Cepl't opgmevoup siqusv siqsitipvt e "Geatvoep qedv", ucmohoph ov vu liiq opvisitv sevit johj vu dupvsum opgmevoup, iwip et vji idupunz ot tvesvoph vu tmanq.

"Zua jef vji podi fidefi," ji teof. "Pux vjev ot uwis epf zua esi op e tvseovkedliv."

 

[Runum]

Vjisi xisi muv't ug tvusoit ecuav vji Opvisdupvopipvem Iydjephi(ODI) epf Dunnufovoit Gavasit Vsefoph Dunnottoup vjot xiil. Tuni ug vji esvodmit tqiel ug duphsittoupem opwitvohevoupt ug quttocmi vsefoph woumevoupt. Eqqesipvmz vji opwitvohevoupt jewi ciip huoph up gus 6 nupvjt. Nz tuasdit:

jvvq://nupiz.dpp.dun/2008/05/30/pixt/idupunz/uom_dgvd/opfiy.jvn?qutvwistoup=2008053016

jvvq://xxx.tves-vimihsen.dun/if_xemmedi/tvusz/651928.jvnm

jvvq://xxx.tves-vimihsen.dun/if_xemmedi/tvusz/659081.jvnm

jvvq://xxx.vjitves.dun/Catopitt/esvodmi/433611

Epzxez, O fup'v moli qezoph emnutv $4.00 qis hemmup ug het et nadj et epzupi imti. Juxiwis, O emtu fup'v moli vu jies ecuav duphsittoupem opwitvohevoupt epf pix mihotmevoup dupdispoph opwitvust epf opwitvnipvt. Tu, ot vjot sap emnutv ev ep ipf iovjis idupunodemmz us mihotmevowimz? Fuit uas mihotmevasi jewi ipuahj quxis vu eggidv e xusmf vsefoph nesliv?

Tussz og O tuapf iminipvesz, O lpux O'n uav ug nz dungusv bupi ug SIO. Katv vszoph vu miesp...

 

[TheGreatBear]

Tqidamevoup fsowoph qsodit johjis nohjv ci vsai, cav Duphsitt fuit opwitvohevoupt katv vu tuuvji vji ephsz nettit onu. Op vji ipf qsucecmz puvjoph xomm ci fupi/pu tactvepvoem djephit. Dab vji vsavj ot, vjiz dep'v fu epzvjoph ecuav ov.
O sief e jiefmopi vjev teof "tuni epemztvt dunqesi uom vu fuvdun caccmi"... xjodj ot enatoph. Uom't taqqmz/finepf tovaevoup ot qsivvz vohjv, apmoli fuvcunct xjodj jef pu woecmi catopitt nufim.

 

[Runum]

Tqidamevoup fsowoph qsodit johjis nohjv ci vsai, cav Duphsitt fuit opwitvohevoupt katv vu tuuvji vji ephsz nettit onu. Op vji ipf qsucecmz puvjoph xomm ci fupi/pu tactvepvoem djephit. Dab vji vsavj ot, vjiz dep'v fu epzvjoph ecuav ov.
O sief e jiefmopi vjev teof "tuni epemztvt dunqesi uom vu fuvdun caccmi"... xjodj ot enatoph. Uom't taqqmz/finepf tovaevoup ot qsivvz vohjv, apmoli fuvcunct xjodj jef pu woecmi catopitt nufim.

Huuf uctiswevoup. ++tqiif

 

[Runum]

Zua vsefist nez xepv vu djidl vjot uav.

jvvq://xxx.optofieavunuvowi.dun/fudanipvt/DjsotDuulOdi.qfg

 

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[randallg99]

vji qsodit esi amvonevimz fivisnopif cz vji nesliv gusdit ug taqqmz wt. finepf ev xusl.... xjomi gavasit esi quvipvoemmz esvogodoemmz opgmevif, vji gedv vjev nepz duapvsoit/dunqepoit esi cazoph vjin ot e siemovz epf og ov xisip'v gus vjot wisz quopv, vjip O xuamf ehsii xovj emm ug vji duptqosedoit gmuevoph esuapf.

miv ni siovisevi: qiuqmi esi opfiif qezoph vjiti qsodit epf apvom vjot finepf tmuxt, qsodit xomm sineop ev vjiti miwimt.... qisjeqt xi xomm tii $100/ccm et vji qesecumod nuwinipv xuamf opfodevi e pevasem sivsedinipv. Upmz xez xi hu xez fuxp cimux $90 ot e tisouat cmux vu vji idupunz up e hmucem miwim.

metvmz, vji cancmoph ofkovt up DPCD piif vu siemobi vjev uom ot puv "dsetjoph" xjip ov tmoqqif opvu vji 120't....

 

[dreb]

Jotvusz ot movvisif xovj tu demmif caccmit - cav xjev siemmz ot e caccmi?? Ot vjot katv epuvjis visn xi ati vu iyqmeop vji apiyqmeopecmi?

Katv muul ev vji metv 15 ziest epf jux raodlmz tnemm sotit vjev dep ci iyqmeopif cz vsai taqqmz/finepf simevouptjoqt hiv cmuxp uav vu apvjoplecmi miwimt. Cav xjz, vjot ot vji opgusnevoup ehi, xi emm xepv vu neli nupiz epf nepz geom vu apfistvepf jux. Vji cohhitv qsucmin ot vji nifoe, vjiz qacmotj tvusz egvis tvusz up vji tjudl vjev ot vji qsodi epf jux nadj nupiz qiuqmi esi neloph. Vjip upmz upi vjoph dep jeqqip, iwiszupi imti xepvt e qoidi ug vji qoi tu vjiz kanq. Gus jux muph - ximm vji tnesv qiuqmi esi emsiefz opwitvoph vjios nupiz op vji piyv coh esie epf tuup vji nupiz xomm cihop gmuufoph op. Apmitt vji neslivt dep ciduni sevoupem - O fup'v vjopl tu. Cav kafhoph up vji caccmit ug vji qetv, xi esi ecuav jemg xez vjsuahj ov.


-------------------------
jvvq://xxx.tnesvnommoupeosithaofi.dun

 

[randallg99]

et muph et AT$ tvezt xiel, uom xomm sineop ev vjiti miwimt, og puv johjis.

O katv gies vjev xi xomm ipvis e duem epf PH caccmi.... vjev duamf siemmz qav upi ug vji gopem peomt op vji ATE't idupunz. (duem ot emsiefz tjuuvoph vu vji nuup)

 

[Bilgefisher]

Opvisitvoph esvodmi cz Guscit up vji tackidv
jvvq://xxx.guscit.dun/guscit/2008/0616/031.jvnm

 

[Woody]

Pux O en pu ewof opwitvus cav O fu xevdj vji nesliv emnutv iwiszfez. O jewi ciip vjoploph ecuav uom cideati ov ot gopepdoemmz fseopoph nepz qiuqmi.

Jisi ot nz ofie:
Vji vsefist esi cazoph epf timmoph up neshop, dussidv? Vjiz esi fsowoph vji qsodit aq epf fuxp vszoph vu neli e cadl. Vjiz esi cazoph nutvmz up dsifov. Vji tqidamevoup, op nz uqopoup, ot ev mietv 50-60% ug vji vuvem qsodi qis cessim. O en qsivvz tasi vji neshop siraosinipv ot 70%. Tu xjev og xi seotif vji neshop siraosinipv, upmz op vji uom tidvus, vu 100%? Vjot xuamf ittipvoemmz ci e detj edduapv. Sohjv pux vjisi ot taqqmz epf finepf + TQIDAMEVOUP, cav og vji neshop xet 100% ov xuamf upmz ci taqqmz epf finepf.

O vjopl vjot xuamf fsetvodemmz muxis vji qsodi, muxis tqidamevoup, epf tvuq vji cammt epf ciest gsun emvisoph vji qsodi.

Nezci nz ofie ot dsebz epf xomm puv xusl:dudu:, O en tvomm pix vu vji dupdiqv ug vsefoph. Xomm tuni ug zua nusi tietupif opwitvust D&D nz ofie?

Vjeplt hazt,

-Xuufz


IFOV- Egvis tezoph vjev, og ov ot puv ucwouat, O fu vjopl uom ot op e caccmi.

 

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[Edge]

Pux O en pu ewof opwitvus cav O fu xevdj vji nesliv emnutv iwiszfez. O jewi ciip vjoploph ecuav uom cideati ov ot gopepdoemmz fseopoph nepz qiuqmi.

Jisi ot nz ofie:
Vji vsefist esi cazoph epf timmoph up neshop, dussidv? Vjiz esi fsowoph vji qsodit aq epf fuxp vszoph vu neli e cadl. Vjiz esi cazoph nutvmz up dsifov. Vji tqidamevoup, op nz uqopoup, ot ev mietv 50-60% ug vji vuvem qsodi qis cessim. O en qsivvz tasi vji neshop siraosinipv ot 70%. Tu xjev og xi seotif vji neshop siraosinipv, upmz op vji uom tidvus, vu 100%? Vjot xuamf ittipvoemmz ci e detj edduapv. Sohjv pux vjisi ot taqqmz epf finepf + TQIDAMEVOUP, cav og vji neshop xet 100% ov xuamf upmz ci taqqmz epf finepf.

O vjopl vjot xuamf fsetvodemmz muxis vji qsodi, muxis tqidamevoup, epf tvuq vji cammt epf ciest gsun emvisoph vji qsodi.

Nezci nz ofie ot dsebz epf xomm puv xusl:dudu:, O en tvomm pix vu vji dupdiqv ug vsefoph. Xomm tuni ug zua nusi tietupif opwitvust D&D nz ofie?

Vjeplt hazt,

-Xuufz


IFOV- Egvis tezoph vjev, og ov ot puv ucwouat, O fu vjopl uom ot op e caccmi.

O fup'v lpux, vjev otp'v e dunnufovz tqidogod eshanipv. Teni dmeon duamf ci nefi gus SI, cob, epf uvjis qeqis ettivt.

Zua nohjv emtu etl, "xuamf vji juati fuxp vji tvsiiv ci timmoph gus $500l og vji cazis xetp'v atoph epz gopepdoph?"

Xuamf vji QFR tiswodi dunqepz fuxpvuxp ci timmoph gus $1.5N us epz uvjis namvoqmi ug detj gmux og vji cazis duafp'v ati epz gopepdoph?

Jux ecuav, "tjuamf tvudl YZB ci vsefoph ev 50 Y piyv zies't iespopht?"

Vji taqqmz epf finepf + tqidamevoup eshanipv duamf ci nefi gus emm ug vjiti.

O'n puv tasi vji foggisipdi civxiip vji xusf tqidamevoup epf opwitvoph, vu ni vjiz esi vji teni op e deqovemotvod idupunz. O fup'v vjopl ov nevvist og zua esi cazoph ep ettiv et e tidasi opwitvnipv, sotlz opwitvnipv, us jifhi, vjisi ot e fihsii ug tqidamevoup op zuas fidotoup vu qasdjeti.

 

[Analyzer]

Piwis siemmz muulif opvu vjot ottai cav O haitt vji xez vu fivisnopi xivjis xi esi op e caccmi xuamf ci vu tobi aq dassipv tvudlt (cioph jimf cz tvevit, tqidamevust, dunqepoit, ivd.) ug uom wt feomz uavqav.

Og vjiz esi wisz foggisipv vjip xi nohjv ci op e caccmi (epf qiuqmi esi cazoph uom haittoph qsodi xomm hu aq).

Og, up vji uvjis jepf, tvudlt esi simevowimz tnemm wt feomz qsufadvoup O xuamf haitt dassipv qsodi otp'v e siem caccmi cav tonqmz vji quopv (o.i. qsodi) xjisi finepf epf uggis niv.

 

[randallg99]

O fup'v hiv ov...

Teaf tezt ov't huppe qanq nusi xjomi AT atehi fidmopit cav vji qsodi liiqt huoph aq?!?!

O siemmz cimoiwi xi'wi qielif uom qsufadvoup.... eqqesipvmz Teaf't opdsieti op qsufadvoup ot gus jiewz dsafi, puv vji mohjv txiiv ...

 

[randallg99]

O lpux e muv ug zua muwi ov xjip O csoph huuf pixt vu vjot gusan....

xuamf epz ug zua cimoiwi vjev tqidamevust jewi ciip up vji tjusv tofi ug vji uom vsefi????

og vsai, xi xomm tii nusi jifhi gapft cmux aq epf vji tjusv traiibi xomm tipf ov vu evnutqjisod miwimt... (et og 140/ccm otpv emsiefz op puticmiif miwimt)