An UGLY Day for Mr. Bob

[bflbob]

UGG!

Every single short position I held went up today, and all but one long position went down.

Do I know how to pick 'em???:smx8:

 

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[MattThomas]

Sorry to hear that

Unfortunately that's just the nature of investing in any financial market, price fluctuations just aren't predictable.

Perhaps you did pick them well, its just that short-term price changes can go in either direction. Longer-term price movements can be easier to plan for based on general industry directions, upcoming news announcements and some fundamental and technical analysis.

 

[bflbob]

A much better day today.

Pretty much corrected from yesterday.

 

[andviv]

closing any position?

 

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[MJ DeMarco]

This is definitely a trader's market, not an investor's.

 

[bflbob]

closing any position?

Nope...nothing has closed in a few days.

I seem to be cycling between "not good enough to cover" and "not bad enough to stop out" lately.

On top of that, I'm about 50/50 on long and short positions.

I'm close to hitting stops on several positions, since my trading plan tightens stops almost daily.

My profit grabs, on the other hand, are fixed at a 15% gain.

So, by default, I'm likely to hit more stops than gains, but the stops mean the losses are smaller.

Since I started trading this system, I've only had two loss months, so it looks like it works quite well.

 

[andviv]

How long you been doing this Bob? I thought you were kind of a newby doing this?

It's been fun watching your progress/struggle/victories.

 

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[bflbob]

July of 2008...and that was one of my bad months.

I was making a lot of dumb mistakes back then.

December was the other bad month.

That was about the time the big run on shorts ended.

Since then, I've been doing OK on both longs and shorts.

 

[Edge]

Glad you had a better day, options expiration week should be interesting next week.

 

[bflbob]

closing any position?

Yesterday was a big closing day.

I closed 8 out of 17 positions yesterday.

5 were losers...3 winners.

But the winners outdistanced the losers, so I made money on closed trades.


Today...only one trade closed, and it was a winner (short).

I entered 4 new short positions today (RRD, JNS, COH, GE) and 1 new long position (S).

I was up 1.36% for the day, which isn't bad on a flat day.

It was a decent couple of days for me, considering all the brokerage fees.

 

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[Edge]

I entered 4 new short positions today (RRD, JNS, COH, GE) and 1 new long position (S).

I assume (S) was a technical entry, but did you know they announce earnings tomorrow morning?

 

[bflbob]

I assume (S) was a technical entry, but did you know they announce earnings tomorrow morning?

Nope...I don't look at anything like that.

The only thing I try to do is not get too lopsided.

If I'm looking at 5 new positions, I try to not make them all financial, for example.

 

[Edge]

Nope...I don't look at anything like that.

The only thing I try to do is not get too lopsided.

If I'm looking at 5 new positions, I try to not make them all financial, for example.

Well, it looks like that earnings announcement is working out pretty good for ya. You're getting about a 10% pop pre-market.

 

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[bflbob]

Well, it looks like that earnings announcement is working out pretty good for ya. You're getting about a 10% pop pre-market.

WOW! That was a quick ride!

Bought mid-morning yesterday at $2.73...sold at 9:45 this morning for $3.17 for a 16.1% gain overnight.

Of course it's up to $3.32 now, so I'm not looking TOO smart.:cuss:

 

[kimberland]

This is definitely a trader's market, not an investor's.

Well, I don't know about that.
I can invest in Royal Bank here in Canada
and get a basically guaranteed 7.4% return
('cause they haven't had a dividend cut in, well, ever).
That doesn't sound like any big whoop
until I take into account
that I can borrow money for 3%.

What is that?
An infinite return?

And yeah, I know this is slowlane.
Still makes me smile though.
Gotta get my jollies where I can.

 

[Jonleehacker]

Well, I don't know about that.
I can invest in Royal Bank here in Canada
and get a basically guaranteed 7.4% return
('cause they haven't had a dividend cut in, well, ever).
That doesn't sound like any big whoop
until I take into account
that I can borrow money for 3%.

What is that?
An infinite return?

And yeah, I know this is slowlane.
Still makes me smile though.
Gotta get my jollies where I can.

I love it Kimber. Now is the first time in my life I've ever purchased dividend paying stocks. (Maybe proof that I'm getting old... lol)

Especially when you factor in the dividends are half taxed, and the interest on money borrowed to invest is tax deductible.

Where are you getting money at 3%, some kind of home equity loan?

 

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[kimberland]

Yeah, a heloc.
The house is paid off,
then I borrow against it for investments.
The loan is tax deductable.

I thought you were going to say
you're shorting Royal Bank, Jon.
You know me and timing
(in 5 years, I'll be up - tomorrow? Not so sure)

That's why I only buy stocks that pay.
I suck at timing
(plus I vacation too much
to keep an eye on stocks that closely).

 

[bflbob]

Where are you getting money at 3%, some kind of home equity loan?

I'm able to borrow on my Business LOC at only 2.25%.

 

[kimberland]

Freakin' right, Bob.
2.25% is pretty much free.

THIS is the time to create wealth, folks.
I've NEVER seen the opps I do now.

 

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[bflbob]

VERY good day today!

Aside from the "S" trade above, many of my shorts went shorter.

On top of that, I have a large position in AZO, which was up 6.75% for the day.

Overall, I was up 5.44% for the day. The best in a long time.

 

[Jonleehacker]

Question for you Bob.

What would be a minimum portfolio size to enable proper risk management and still provide decent profit opportunities when trading a system like yours?

 

[bflbob]

I started this at $20k.

I risked a maximum of 3% on any one position ($600).
That's RISK, not position size.
So, if I set a stop of a $1 loss on a $10 stock, I'd trade 600 shares ($6,000 position).

I also risked a maximum of 25% of my pool.

So, $20k X 25% = $5,000 total risk.

$5,000/$600 = 8 positions...or 25%/3% = 8 positions

As my account balance grows, I decreased my risk per position.
Now, I'm below 2%.

So...25%/2% = 12 positions

I can now spread my risk over more positions.

I'll be glad to share more in AZ when I do my presentation, or when we're out on the town.

 

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[bflbob]

Took on three new short positions this morning...

CAT -- 6.25% gain for the day
LUK -- 5.19% gain for the day
BXP -- 7.08% gain for the day

Did well on them compared to the market change.

 

[bflbob]

For those of you who saw my presentation at the B&P, I've had some GREAT days since then.

Three days of 5%+/- gains, and one loser.

Big time short on stocks right now.

 

[andviv]

hey Bob, more than a month after the last update... and the market has been acting up kind of "teenager" mode... how you doing?

 

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[biophase]

Hey Bob,

Thought I'd post an update on my use for Bob's trend trading system. I started on March 24, approximately a month after Bob's B&P presentation. Since most of you know how lazy I am, Bob's system seemed to fit what I was looking for.

So here we are 30 days later, I started with $10,000 and I am up $891 in 6 trades. 8.9% in a month isn't bad. I think it's mainly due to the fact that the market has been steadily rising. The only trade in which I lost money was a short. I also screwed up my first 3 trades in that I sold too early due to an error in entering trades.

Last week I had 2 trades hit the 15% gain limit and sell off. My portfolio consists of JCP, FCX and AN right now.

As I type this, I'm putting in an order for DRI. :groove:

 

[Jonleehacker]

Bio & Bob... any updates?

 

[bflbob]

Bio & Bob... any updates?

I've had good and bad luck lately. Since March's B&P, I'm down. I got caught in the change from shorts to longs.

Right now, I'm 100% long. Yesterday was, to the best of my recall, the biggest % gain I ever had in a day. My account was up nearly 10% for the day. As of early afternoon, I'm up another 1.34% for today.

I've been studying Option Trading, and I'm considering seeing if I can make out better by using Options to mimic the standard trades I do now.

Thanks for asking!

 

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[TaxGuy]

Congrats Bob!

I definitely have to go over my notes from B&P on your prez and David's as we don't want to put our "excess" in a savings account when we have an opp to gain 10-15%/mo instead of 1-2%/yr :smxB: