A call for a housing bottom worth listening to

[MJ DeMarco]

Alan Greenspan famously declared the worst was over back in November of 2006. And the National Association of Realtors' erstwhile chief economist David Lereah called the bottom a few times, starting in May 2006.

More...

 

Dislike ads? Remove them and support the forum: Subscribe to Fastlane Insiders.

[hatterasguy]

I agree with them, its impossible to predict these things, but I think they are pretty close to the mark.

 

[Rickson9]

I don't think the future is predictable. That's the underlying investment belief that I run with anyway.

I'm only speaking for myself of course.

 

[Bilgefisher]

Goes back again to buying right. If you are paying more then 70% for a house including fixup, you are paying to much. With 70% all in you can take a drop in the market and not be totally devastated. Build in your own appreciation, never rely on a macro market you simply cannot control.

 

Dislike ads? Remove them and support the forum: Subscribe to Fastlane Insiders.

[Gaulkin]

Real estate is all local, listening to them is not going to help you make sound financial decisions.

 

[phlgirl]

Real estate is all local, listening to them is not going to help you make sound financial decisions.

Exactly. While it may be helpful to stay in touch with happenings of the greater economy, when it comes to making specific real estate investing decisions, the research needs to be focused locally.

As a good friend of mine says frequently, tracking the national real estate news is like tracking a national weather report/average. It's not going to help you decide between a bathing suit and a down parka.

 

[Russ H]

. . . a good friend of mine says frequently, tracking the national real estate news is like tracking a national weather report/average. It's not going to help you decide between a bathing suit and a down parka.

This is a perfect analogy!

Mind if I borrow it?

-Russ H.

 

Dislike ads? Remove them and support the forum: Subscribe to Fastlane Insiders.

[hakrjak]

Some good news out here in Colorado Springs this month.... For the first time, well, EVER... My property manager is telling me she has zero vacancy in her 800 units under management. Apparently people not being able to buy houses is starting to pay off for us landlords Reduced vacancies should hopefully allow us to start raising rents this year, and keep more money in our pockets.

Regarding property values -- we haven't lost any, but I gave up hope a few years ago of values rising and being able to sell and pocket big equity. Those days are long gone, and aren't coming back for maybe 15-20 years in my opinion.

Cheers,

- Hakrjak

 

[Rickson9]

My property manager is telling me she has zero vacancy in her 800 units under management.

This seems to speak to the following article in Bloomberg and USA Today:

Apartment Occupancy Up Amid Foreclosures (USA Today)
"Landlords are seeing a surge in apartment rentals as mounting foreclosures reduce homeownership and an improving job market for young adults encourages them to find their own places. The number of occupied apartments increased by 215,000 in the 64 largest U.S. markets in the first half of the year, according to MPF Research. That's almost double the increase in occupied units in all of 2009 and the most since the firm began tracking rates in 1992. The vacancy rate declined to 6.6% in June from 8.2% in December." - USA Today
http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/housing/2010-07-28-apartments28_ST_N.htm

Apartment Rentals Surge In U.S. on Foreclosures, Jobs (Bloomberg Businessweek)
"“The rental market will be robust for the next few years,” Cisneros said. Effective rents, or what tenants pay after concessions or breaks from landlords, increased 1.4 percent in the biggest markets in the first half, according to MPF Research. Rents may rise 4 percent to 6 percent in both 2011 and 2012, compared with a gain of about 2 percent this year, Willett said. AvalonBay, which took a nine-month hiatus from construction in 2009, said in April it had seven communities under development and would increase rents for tenants renewing in the second quarter. It raised its forecast last month for second- quarter and 2010 earnings based on “improved operating trends.”" - Bloomberg
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-07-27/apartment-rentals-surge-in-u-s-on-foreclosures-jobs.html

 

[Bilgefisher]

My coach has been pushing his students into rentals for the last year or so. He's even picking his portfolio up again. Many folks who lost their homes simply don't want to go back to apartment living. With home ownership rate dropping 3-5% (1% equaling over 1 million households.), this bodes well for landlords.

I think home ownership is down to 65% from a peak of 69%.

Denver is down below 6% vacancy.

 

Dislike ads? Remove them and support the forum: Subscribe to Fastlane Insiders.