My take since last posting.
Russia - My sense is that the casualties are high even for the Russian military, I am still perplexed why they are not employing their full battle capabilities, we saw the airstrikes in the west of Ukraine with standoff missiles was pretty effective. Something is off here, it's almost like Russia wants this impression that they are floundering, I have been suspicious of why they are not employing a scorched earth policy to minimize casualties on their side, brutal but that's their MO.
I'm starting to see some maneuvering on the Russia side internationally and it looks like Russia wants to drag China into the fight both diplomatically/economically/militarily(hardware mostly symbolic). This is going to put China in a bind if they refuse because it could destabilize Russia, and if Putin and the hardliners fall Russia has the potential to become a vassal state of the U.S and there goes the energy China needs as well as a whole new Ukraine vassal state right next to them.
I would not underestimate Putin here and the Russian leadership, if this is indeed the case we may get a cease fire soon, as if the U.S thinks China will back Putin solidly/publicly they may get Zelensky to back off as it is not in the interest of the U.S for China to publicly/substantially back Putin, it would mean a real challenge to U.S hegemony and pieces of the world order would fall sooner than planned for.
United States - Things are getting tricky for the United States in this scenario, the Iran ballistic missile attack on structures in Iraq which were very close to U.S installations is a message that other actors are willing to escalate. I wouldn't rule out a NK nuke test or further ballistic missile tests in the near future as they take advantage of the chaos.
Trouble Spots for the U.S:
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The Pentagon - The military leadership seems to be wary of escalation and it looks like they shot down the idea of transferring the fighter planes to Ukraine. The escalation ladder has reached its last rung for now in Ukraine, nothing further can be done for Ukraine. However, this standard set in Ukraine is not going to be applicable for countries like Iran/NK, it looks like some of the leadership especially the neocons want a war anywhere really, Iran/NK/Ukraine, etc. However, the west has now set a very open standard that shipping in MANPADS/SAMs/Anti Tank Missiles/etc. in large quantities is acceptable in proxy conflicts. This is going to cost U.S/Western military lives in the next proxy conflict as countries like Russia/Iran/China have been hesitant to provide these in large numbers, as seen in Ukraine for fear of escalation, these systems are deadly against modern militaries. The biggest weapons the U.S has faced in the last major wars have been RPG and AK-47s and homemade roadside bombs, that era is now over. Expect these weapons to start showing up in Iraq/Syria and used against the U.S military there.
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The State Department - This is the entity that is supposed to be pushing for diplomatic solutions but in terms of Ukraine/China/other countries, it has become an arms broker and an economic warfare department. This is the most dangerous entity in the U.S government that seems to be edging the U.S towards further engagement/escalation in Ukraine and anywhere really and declaring some type of economic war on China if they support Russia. Other agencies like the Pentagon/CIA seem to be very mindful of escalation while the state department seems to want a war anywhere really.
- Biden - I don't have a sense of where this guy stands in terms of anything really, him and his son are very closely linked to Ukraine and their scandals before this war even started, he used to be a big war hawk, but seems to be pushing for deescalation also, has been very firm in saying no direct boots on the ground so I give him credit for that.
- India/Israel/Iran/NK/Saudia Arabia/etc. - These countries are going to become a headache for the U.S as they are all pursuing their own military/economic/political interests apart from U.S
goals. Israel wants to preserve the status quo before the war, and works closely with Russia in the Middle East with respect to holding down Iran/Syria. A diminished Russia is bad news for Israel as Russia/China will want to use Iran and Syria as a proxy agains the U.S and they are about to start getting better tactical weapons as I outlined above, heck we already saw that with the ballistic missile launches against Iraq, the explosions looked pretty big and honestly scary how fast those ballistic missile warheads came in on the videos. Israel is most likely pushing Zelensky to negotiate. Israel maintains economic ties with China as they seem to be hedging that China will become a major power that will eclipse the USA or be a near peer.
India - I did not expect this from them as they seem to have been growing close to the U.S but it looks like the massive sanctions on Russia gave them cold feet, the Indians seem to sense that the U.S will not let them become a great economic and military power in the Pacific/Indian Ocean either. So it seems they are running the same calculus and coming to the same rough conclusion as the Russians and the Chinese. It looks like they don't consider themselves a vassal state, I thought they had made the full transition under Trump, but perhaps they took Trump at face value, that he didn't want to expand the empire.
Iran - This Ukraine mess is a boon for them, the sanctions regime that was largely abided by China and Russia is now dead it looks like. They are now a valuable chess piece to Russia and China and the sanctions stronghold is most likely over. Heck they might get the Russians to help them build up a nuclear weapons program now. People are forgetting that Russia becoming an international pariah means they have little to lose by help NK/Iran and whomever else wants to jump into their sphere for nuclear know how. The U.S seems to be rushing for an Iran deal but Iran has regional dominance aspirations and doesn't want to be a vassal state, so they most likely don't want a deal either.
Saudi Arabia - A big loser in all this, a better armed Iran and perhaps nuclear is around the corner, a better armed militia in Yemen is around the corner also, meanwhile as a vassal state of the U.S it cannot go nuclear. It might explain why they are not taking Biden's calls but are talking to Putin.
Ukraine - Still getting torn to shreds as a country, infrastructure getting demolished, however "they are winning". Cruel and ironic but the war in Ukraine really has nothing to do with Ukraine from a strategic standpoint, fate has simply chosen them as the next Vietnam/Iraq/Aghanistan/etc.
Long summary, my thoughts, hope you get value out of them, I have studied these regions/countries for many years and enjoy reading about history and the different actors. The better informed we are as a population the better decisions we can make and the better country we can be. The USA is a great country but it must be aware that it is part of a global community made up of countries with their own sovereign ambitions.
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