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Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency Discussion (And Predictions)

MJ DeMarco

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Regarding GOLD vs BTC ... as it stands right now, BTC can buy a lot more things than GOLD.

Have yet to hear any place taking gold coins in lieu of cash.
 
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James Fake

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IMG_6830.jpeg

Here's my treasure map that's followed along very eerily so far. The sad part is I have missed more than I would have liked to; even with a stupid 2021 almanac right dead in my face; talk about an idiot lol.

Anywho... you holders keep holding cause this... is... going... to... get... interesting....
 

Timmy C

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Don't forget to have fun in all of this guys.

Take some of the table if you want to and enjoy the memes.

20210220_181249.jpg
 

Timmy C

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AceVentures

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A rather long read, but worth it if you're interested in getting a vision for what a digital future can look like with crypto as it's infrastructure.

Below is the TL;DR from the article.
  • Crypto is laying the foundations for a self-sovereign financial system, an open creator economy, and a universal digital representation and ownership layer via NFTs (non-fungible tokens).
  • The Metaverse is coming; trends indicate our direction of travel. Our next great milestone as a networked species awaits us: 7B digital souls with the option to exist almost exclusively online and participate in a virtual economy with societal impact.
  • More time spent online will lead to more value created and consumed digitally.
  • In order to maximize willingness of individuals to allocate serious time and capital to virtual environments, establishing trust in their durability as well as economic robustness is paramount.
  • As education of web 2.0’s shortcomings rises, users will prefer credibly neutral platforms that lack altogether the capacity for arbitrary censorship, undue rent extraction (also in the form of privacy cost), or sudden cessation.
  • All of these threats are only amplified by increasingly immersive, pervasive, and interconnected digital environments.
  • Decentralized networks provide a unique and unmatchable degree of assurance, whilst a universal erosion of trust in institutions is forcing the desire for alternatives.
  • NFTs on top of them enable a standardized universal digital representation and ownership layer for any natively digital “thing” such as game assets, digital art, or domain space.
  • Early breakout successes will drive FOMO as onlookers scramble to understand the new tool sets available. The network effects of these protocols prove difficult to overcome; their open nature compounds permissionless innovation incredibly quickly as each additional creator builds on the shoulders of all who came before.
  • Owning core pieces of these new worlds brings great financial returns to those who believed; many of whom will be from emerging markets who were quick to move on the opportunities available.
  • Beyond wealth, the initial players are granted additional advantages. As pioneers of a variety of new business models and technologies, their accumulated IP and know-how provide a significant moat.
  • In the same way the rise of mobile forced large buyouts and talent acquisition, so too will the rise of crypto across gaming and the creator economy.
  • In hindsight, it will be obvious that crypto’s role in the Metaverse was the most imperative yet least explored by those speculating on its emergence.
 

MTF

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The Metaverse is coming; trends indicate our direction of travel. Our next great milestone as a networked species awaits us: 7B digital souls with the option to exist almost exclusively online and participate in a virtual economy with societal impact.

That sounds horrible. If that's our next "great" milestone, the future is bleak.
 

JamesQB8

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That sounds horrible. If that's our next "great" milestone, the future is bleak.

Yeah I also got that weird dystopian vibe of ready player one. The more digitalised the world gets the more valuable nature and disconnection becomes imo.

Also reminds me of the book Cryptonomicon

It makes me think of how Social Media executives highly limit their kids use as they understand the danger. I feel like the people that really make money in the new metaverse space will know the value of disconnecting from it and not being absorbed by it.

One more note is that I was one of those guys buying runescape gold off ebay with money I earned from selling sweets at school haha
 

AceVentures

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That sounds horrible. If that's our next "great" milestone, the future is bleak.

Wording of the author - not mine :p I agree with you in the sense that my personal values favor the opposite, that I spend as much time in nature instead.

Whether I like it or not, the direction that the collective pursues is outside the control of any individual. If the new generation wants to attend digital concerts, pull up in their digital limited-edition ferraris, flash their digital one of a kind costumes on their avatars, and engage with the world from that plane of manifestation - who am I to place a value judgement on the morality of the happening?

"Over the last 20 years, the communities formed around games have evolved into real economies. Gamers ascribe value to virtual goods based upon perceived status and utility. In doing so, these digital worlds present unique environments in which to study economics whilst being able to track (almost) all inputs and outputs. They allow us to glimpse how emergent value is given to natively-digital goods, as well as how that value leaks into the real world"
 

scottmsul

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Watching the price explode these last few months has been a fun and wild ride, given I bought a large sum back at the halving. I explained my reasoning in earlier in this thread:
I bought a lot of BTC back in May around the halving. The last two halvings were followed by bull markets that lasted 12-18 months, so I'm fairly optimistic.

34337


image source

The way I think about it, price is an equilibrium between supply and demand. For bitcoin, supply is the number of new bitcoin sold each day, and demand is the number of new dollars sold each day. Dividing new dollars by new bitcoin gives units of (dollars/BTC), eg a price. There's three components to understanding bitcoin supply and demand: difficulty adjustments, halvings, and network effects.

Difficulty adjustments keep the supply constant. Currently 6.25 bitcoin are issued every 10 minutes, and miners will sell some of that in order to pay for electricity. Every two weeks, the difficulty is readjusted to keep blocks at 10 minutes. So the supply curve is extremely inelastic, even flat or negative. If the price skyrockets, the same amount of bitcoin get mined (unlike most commodities, eg oil), and less might get sold since miners don't have to use as many BTC to pay for electricity.

Halvings introduce supply shocks. Every four years the number of new BTC issued per block drops in half, with the most recent being in May. Naively, this should double the BTC price, assuming the price is determined by inflows and outflows. However it takes a while to adjust the price because most of the selling volume probably isn't miners but day traders or long-term holders selling their position. I'm curious to see data on this.

Network effects are the real kicker though. One of bitcoin's main use cases is digital gold - it preserves wealth but doesn't pay interest (which is good right now given low interest rates and potentially high inflation). Most investors don't like bitcoin as a store of value because of high volatility. However, as price goes up, volatility goes down, so demand should go up. The fact that bitcoin's demand should increase with price is rather crazy.

The market cap is only $200B which is small compared to many stocks and very small compared to gold. Because it's small in relative terms there's a lot of upside so it's a pretty asymmetrical bet. An econometrics guy under the pseudonym Plan B is predicting $288K for this cycle using a stock-to-flow model but that feels high IMO. The (cycle peak/price at halving) were about 100x and 30x for the last two halvings respectively, so it may be getting weaker each time. 10x seems pretty reasonable though. In the end it's unpredictable but the outlook seems pretty good right now.
I imagine a lot of people are trying to come up with post-hoc rationalizations of why the price is going up, but IMO it all comes back to the halving. The update to Digitalik's chart is quite dramatic (source):

1613866343441.png

One plot that demonstrates the reduced supply is the bitcoin held on exchanges (source):
1613866820749.png
One thing I was not expecting was the corporate FOMO. Normally corporations with extra capital would buy back stock, give dividends, or re-invest in the company. I suppose given the money printing we're in for some high inflation, and corporations need an independent SoV, especially if they have large treasuries relative to their free cash flows. For technical reasons bitcoin is the superior SoV compared to gold/real estate/stocks/bonds/treasuries, but with the high volatility I wouldn't have expected anyone to come out the gates storming like Michael Saylor. There's rumors that even Oracle is buying bitcoin (source), and I would expect some more announcements in Q1/Q2 reports this year.

I suppose it's ironic that I'm on an entrepreneur forum, making FU money, without having started a fastlane business...
 
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Timmy C

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Gold was confiscated in the past by government for those smart enough to hoard it.

So can gold really be considered a good hedge?
 

socaldude

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I view gold and silver as more of a scarce physical resource. Like oil or land.

We will be back where we started if gold was “money”. I’ll have to go to a bank and deposit it with them so I can get “digital” credits in their lame a$$ banking database.

Like depositing $100 into a slot machine at the Wynn and seeing the “$100” on the screen. LOL
 
Last edited:

Kevin88660

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Gold was confiscated in the past by government for those smart enough to hoard it.

So can gold really be considered a good hedge?
It is a global currency. Still used as saving and dowry in South Asia and Middle East.

All the central banks still have gold holdings as back up plan. This speaks volume on what they think about gold.
 
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csalvato

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It is a global currency. Still used as saving and dowry in South Asia and Middle East.

All the central banks still have gold holdings as back up plan. This speaks volume on what they think about gold.

And what will it say when central banks start also holding bitcoin and stop buying gold for that purpose?
 

Timmy C

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It is a global currency. Still used as saving and dowry in South Asia and Middle East.

All the central banks still have gold holdings as back up plan. This speaks volume on what they think about gold.

Yeh, sure.

But what does it say about is effectiveness as a store of value when it's easily confiscatable?
 

Timmy C

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Frinys

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Just wanted to add some more pictures. This is what Google Trend looked like in the end of September 2017.

Screenshot 2021-02-21 at 14.48.51.png As we all can see, the trend blew past the previous ATH (Dec 2013).

And let's look at another picture. What the trend looked like at the end of 2017.
Screenshot 2021-02-21 at 14.48.29.png
As we can see, the trend transformed into a rocket. The ATH from 2013 seems close to irrelevant.

It's fair to assume that the same thing will happen again this time.
 

Timmy C

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Just wanted to add some more pictures. This is what Google Trend looked like in the end of September 2017.

View attachment 36902 As we all can see, the trend blew past the previous ATH (Dec 2013).

And let's look at another picture. What the trend looked like at the end of 2017.
View attachment 36903
As we can see, the trend transformed into a rocket. The ATH from 2013 seems close to irrelevant.

It's fair to assume that the same thing will happen again this time.
Nice find.
 
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csalvato

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View attachment 36904

For anyone wanting to learn a bit more about Bitcoin.
Pretty sure bitcoin doesn't fit the description of a pegged currency though.


It's unfortunate, because the rest of the doc is pretty good.
 
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Timmy C

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D

Deleted78083

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Where do you get crypto news from?

I'm not talking about prices, but more about what projects different blockchains are working on and what it means for the future.
 

Kak

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