The $170BN CRYPTO Industry

[GetShitDone]

What is the Fastlane's thoughts and experience on the $170BN Crypto phenomenon sweeping the globe?

1) Cryptocurrencies As A Whole (Bitcoin, Etherum, etc) - Currently, Bitcoin is at $5,700 and Etherum is at $300.

A lot are saying that Etherum will surpass Bitcoin due to Etherum being more flexible, whilst Bitcoin is limited in functionality.

Not to mention Etherum being the main ICO enabler.

2) ICO (Initial Coin Offerings) - Companies creating their own exclusive cryptocurrency and selling them via crowdfunding on ICO platforms, in order to fund their business goals.

Billions of dollars have been raised through ICOs already and a lot of experts are saying that institutional capital is awaiting on the sideline and will be deployed in 2018 to further boom ICOs and the Crypto market as a whole.

Of course, regulation is lurking as China temporarily halted ICOs and the SEC has also classified ICOs as securities offerings.

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Interested to hear everyone's open minded opinions on the future of Crypto and ICOs.

 

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[C-Jay]

I posted this on reddit a little while ago in a thread discussing "where we're at" in the age of crypto:

****
If the stages are this, in comparison to the internet age:

1. Pioneers (e.g. buying stock in google in the 90's)
   
2. Early adopters (those first cool friends with an internet connection and you just don't get it)
   
3. Developing (most people understand the concept of e-mail, web surfing)
   
4. Mainstream (Vast majority of people of discovering the full potential of the internet)
   
5. Fully institutionalized (internet is considered a basic necessity of life)

We are in stage 2 with a likely breakout into stage 3 in the next year or less.
****

I don't know if it's THE currency of the future, but I definitely think it'll be a currency OF the future (much moreso than now).
I'm an ETH guy. I believe in the tech and it amazes me daily. Bitcoin is, fundamentally, useless. But it has value, both real and perceived. It pioneered cryptocurrency and it has a fixed supply. It holds the value we give it. I think we are still a long way away from the "flippening" (ETH taking over BTC, for those unfamiliar), if it ever comes. For the record, I own both.

I took an absolute pounding trying to time the market through the insanity of the last few months. This was my first painful lesson in the cryptosphere. Luckily, I abided by the principle of not investing more than you can afford to lose. Unfortunately, that's about the only one I abided by the last couple months. For what they're worth, some points of advice for newbies:

1. You have never experienced investment volatility until you've experienced a crypto correction/dive/surge. Be ready for it. Make rational decisions on your guiding principles before it happens, otherwise you'll do like me and start sending fire and forget missiles all over the place and losing a bunch of dough.
   
2. You are probably not any better at timing the market than an infant.
   
3. Margin trading with leverage gets expensive, fast. If you do it, I wish you the best of luck and implore you not to chase profit (I.e switching from long to short and vice versa as you watch live fluctuations). You'll get eaten alive by fees even if you break even on the 50:50 gamble, trust me.
   
4. Just buy and hold. Enjoy the ride. It's going to work out down the road if you buy in and stick with it. I truly believe that.
5. Most ICO (initial coin offerings) are just scams. Do serious research before you jump on any of them.

If anyone wants some advice or wants to chat about this stuff feel free to drop me a line.

 

[jpmartin]

Billions of dollars have been raised through ICOs

Approximately $2.3 Billion as of October 2017. I talk about this and more for those who wish to learn about Blockchain & Cryptocurrency. All I can say is - this is just the beginning.

 

[jpmartin]

I took an absolute pounding trying to time the market through the insanity of the last few months.

I don't know if it was luck, but managed to get the bottom marked - press play on this chart and you'll see how well its been since. The vol stop loss should be around 41.6% from the highest peak.

 

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[James Fake]

Will Bit retain it's value (and go up) after this upcoming fork(s)? It did last time, but something tells me it's due for a little "back down to Earth" type fall.

 

[jpmartin]

Will Bit retain it's value (and go up) after this upcoming fork(s)? It did last time, but something tells me it's due for a little "back down to Earth" type fall.

Corrections are normal part of the cycle. Expect it and it will be easier to handle.

 

[fhs8]

Cryptocurrency is not the internet. Just because the internet did well doesn't mean cryptocurrency will. The internet was and still is used by common consumers while cryptocurrency is still hardly being used by consumers. 99.9%+ of cryptocurrency transaction volume are nothing more than traders trying to make money. There's no justification for the market cap it's at right now.

Let's compare cryptocurrency with PayPal. Paypal is almost exactly like cryptocurrency except it's based on local currencies and is centralized. PayPal is also used far more than cryptocurrency in commerce. Yet despite this PayPal only had $13.02 billion of deposits in all of it's accounts.
Source: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/starbucks-has-more-customer-money-on-cards-than-many-banks-have-in-deposits-2016-06-09

All I can say is that this won't end well.

 

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[lowtek]

Cryptocurrency is not the internet. Just because the internet did well doesn't mean cryptocurrency will. The internet was and still is used by common consumers while cryptocurrency is still hardly being used by consumers. 99.9%+ of cryptocurrency transaction volume are nothing more than traders trying to make money. There's no justification for the market cap it's at right now.

Let's compare cryptocurrency with PayPal. Paypal is almost exactly like cryptocurrency except it's based on local currencies and is centralized. PayPal is also used far more than cryptocurrency in commerce. Yet despite this PayPal only had $13.02 billion of deposits in all of it's accounts.
Source: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/starbucks-has-more-customer-money-on-cards-than-many-banks-have-in-deposits-2016-06-09

All I can say is that this won't end well.

I'm not a crypto zealot, but I find some of your reasoning specious.

1) Crypto isn't the internet, but blockchain is a protocol. You're right that the success of the internet doesn't guarantee the success of anyone crypto currency, but it stands to reason the blockchain will be a paradigm shifter.

2) You say that paypal is almost exactly like cryptocurrency, except that it's nothing at all like crypto currency. Paypal has way more in common with common banking/credit than it does with crypto. The fact that it only holds $13BN isn't really material - it just means that people are withdrawing their money from paypal as soon as they get it ( unless I'm reading something wrong - correct me if I am ).

I think your assessment that current cryptocurrency won't end well is probably close to the truth ( governments don't like things they can't control ), but the cat is out of the bag and it's only a matter of time before the blockchain is leveraged in just about everything.

 

[jpmartin]

Cryptocurrency is not the internet. Just because the internet did well doesn't mean cryptocurrency will. The internet was and still is used by common consumers while cryptocurrency is still hardly being used by consumers. 99.9%+ of cryptocurrency transaction volume are nothing more than traders trying to make money. There's no justification for the market cap it's at right now.

Ok, I think you have the concepts mixed up here. Cryptocurrency isn't the internet. The Internet is based of a protocol called HTTP / TCP / IP (google them). Cryptocurrency is based off the Blockchain protocol. This is the first time in history, you get a piece of the protocol by investing in the cryptocurrency (i.e. byproduct).

Also, please research what we call the Mosaic / Interface Moment and Kodak Moment. I don't want this to be a promotion for my course - but it's this kind of thinking that I want to clear so people can benefit from this major change that's happening.

For Fastlaners: Blockchain, Cryptocurrency and Beyond - Udemy

Let's compare cryptocurrency with PayPal. Paypal is almost exactly like cryptocurrency except it's based on local currencies and is centralized. PayPal is also used far more than cryptocurrency in commerce. Yet despite this PayPal only had $13.02 billion of deposits in all of it's accounts.

I couldn't make out where you're based from your profile card - but PayPal is NOT ALMOST exactly like. PayPal is centralized, and with centralization it's controlled. Also it's not in every country worldwide. Which means countries like where I'm staying, cannot participate fully using PayPal. This despite being one of the financial hubs in the region. PayPal keeps your money, with Blockchain U& Cryptocurrency - its your money, you are the holder, the bank - its your responsibility - like having your own safe / vault in your house holding some gold / valuables / documents - you have to take care of the security. (What's more in security is hackers will always try to be hacking PayPal and Banks - bcoz that's where the money is!!) Not sure where you got the number of deposits from - but right now the market cap of Bitcoin alone is around what, $90 Billion that's how much is being held in personal wallets around the world. (Again, we're measuring everything in USD... which is where the problem is)

Also, I'm a student of finance, and studied currencies - I can't ramble on more here, so check out the course if you're interested in learning more seriously - or continue to google / search youtube.



Again, once you hear my story - you'll understand what I'm talking about and how I got introduced to blockchain last year and have been researching for 12-18 months now. It's the most fascinating development since the internet - and we know how what happened after 1996.

 

[fhs8]

Ok, I think you have the concepts mixed up here. Cryptocurrency isn't the internet. The Internet is based of a protocol called HTTP / TCP / IP (google them). Cryptocurrency is based off the Blockchain protocol. This is the first time in history, you get a piece of the protocol by investing in the cryptocurrency (i.e. byproduct).

I was replying to C-Jay making the assertion that cryptocurrency is going to grow like the internet did.

I couldn't make out where you're based from your profile card - but PayPal is NOT ALMOST exactly like. PayPal is centralized, and with centralization it's controlled. Also it's not in every country worldwide. Which means countries like where I'm staying, cannot participate fully using PayPal. This despite being one of the financial hubs in the region. PayPal keeps your money, with Blockchain U& Cryptocurrency - its your money, you are the holder, the bank - its your responsibility - like having your own safe / vault in your house holding some gold / valuables / documents - you have to take care of the security.

Wrong. The common consumer will never use cryptocurrency without an intermediary. Even "investors" of cryptocurrencies use wallets, exchanges, etc... PayPal keeps your money and so does Mt.Gox (hacked and gone), bitstamp, etc... Saving your money off the internet brings up even more risks.

(What's more in security is hackers will always try to be hacking PayPal and Banks - bcoz that's where the money is!!) Not sure where you got the number of deposits from - but right now the market cap of Bitcoin alone is around what, $90 Billion that's how much is being held in personal wallets around the world. (Again, we're measuring everything in USD... which is where the problem is)

Yeah which bank got hacked and when did PayPal get hacked? I don't think PayPal ever got hacked and people lost money because of it. Show me ONE reputable news article that shows PayPal got hacked and people lost money (not just individual accounts where it was an easy to guess password etc). However I can list a TON of cryptocurrency sites that were hacked and yes people did lose tons of money.

 

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[jpmartin]

I was replying to C-Jay making the assertion that cryptocurrency is going to grow like the internet did.

Apologies - noted.

Wrong. The common consumer will never use cryptocurrency without an intermediary.

I haven't mentioned anywhere the common consumers would not use intermediaries. You've missed the point - PayPal is not global. Blockchain & Cryptocurrencies can work in any country.

Yeah which bank got hacked and when did PayPal get hacked?

While what I said is a general statement, it also applies to crypto exchanges. Paypal per se has not been hacked and yes individual accounts have been compromised. But in terms of banks - SWIFT was hacked - the main banking plumbing system for international transfers. And they took 2-3 months to admit it. When crypto exchanges were hacked - the news came out immediately, not after months.

 

[jpmartin]

At the end of the day, if you're convinced - you'll invest. I don't think we need to convince anyone. I'm not so much about being right or wrong - I'm a trader - I can still be wrong and win. What's more important is that people understand this global development happening and profit from it!

 

[TheOwl8]

I don't think many people are investing in Bitcoin. I think lots of people are speculating on Bitcoin. 99% of Bitcoin transactions are one speculator buying from another speculator. Bitcoin is suppose to be a currency right? How many people are actually using it as a currency to exchange goods and services? Almost none.

Seth Klarman gives a great analogy about sardines. Everyone is going crazy trading sardines, and one day a trader actually opens the can of sardines to taste them, and he realizes they are terrible. When he brings this issue up to other traders, the traders say "These aren't sardines for eating, these are sardines for trading!".

I believe this is what is happening with Bitcoin. Everyone wants to trade it, but very few actually want to taste (own) it.

That being said, I love the idea of a currency not controlled by a government. I do believe that currency free from government monopoly could be one of the great innovations in history.

 

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[jpmartin]

I don't think many people are investing in Bitcoin. I think lots of people are speculating on Bitcoin. 99% of Bitcoin transactions are one speculator buying from another speculator. Bitcoin is suppose to be a currency right? How many people are actually using it as a currency to exchange goods and services? Almost none.

All sorts of investments are speculations at some point in time. If you're referring to trading - that is different. While Bitcoin started out as a currency - there are various forms of currency. Right now, Bitcoin cannot be used as medium of exchange because of the high volatility. This doesn't mean it or other currencies are not being used. A currency should not have more than 1% fluctuation in a month. This is why Amazon has not yet accepted it. Imagine you buy something and the price (in dollar terms) drops by 20%.

This is not to say people are not using it - that's too much of a generalization. Take for example the site Purse.io and you'll see how many people are using their Bitcoins to buy stuff from Amazon. Hundreds of websites are accepting it slowly. Here's another example of someone using Bitcoin in a store to pay for stuff. or for rent, or for purchasing an apartment. The reason why the price went up few months back was because the Japanese were accepting it for plane tickets. So how do you say its almost none?



But people are using Bitcoin for exchange of goods and services, but not at a critical mass level - it was the same with the Internet in the early days. Again, I refer to the User Interface Moment (see below).

Seth Klarman gives a great analogy about sardines. Everyone is going crazy trading sardines, and one day a trader actually opens the can of sardines to taste them, and he realizes they are terrible. When he brings this issue up to other traders, the traders say "These aren't sardines for eating, these are sardines for trading!".

There is a utility value to some of these cryptocurrencies, for example ETH and smart contracts - which spawned a boom in ICOs. Those are practical applications. And here's why the VC industry are closely watching this (an old chart, see more in my presentation):

 

[C-Jay]

I was replying to C-Jay making the assertion that cryptocurrency is going to grow like the internet did.

I wasn't implying that it would grow like the internet, but I used the internet as a basis example to highlight where I think crypto is at in it's integration.

 

[C-Jay]

There's a lot of chatter in this thread about bitcoin and how it's "not a currency" and "not often being use like a currency."

Bingo.

Bitcoin sucks. It's the goliath-sized pet rock of cryptocurrency. It has ZERO smart technology or capability. It has less use than gold; you can't even make jewelry out of it. But what it does have is name recognition. Bitcoin is crypto and crypto is bitcoin.

This is why other coins (many of them ethereum-based) are developing smart contracts, payment systems with checks and balances, etc etc. This is why people who actually understand the potential of the technology believe bitcoin will inevitably be overtaken by smarter coins.

The ironic part is that the coin with the second highest market cap (ethereum) is likely being held down in price DUE to the massive influx of ICO`s, almost all of which are ethereum-based or only accept ethereum in exchange for their token, which decreases trading and buy pressure for ethereum as people dump thousands of them into ICOs. Because, again, bitcoin sucks.

 

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[MarekvBeek]

Interesting how the discussion in this thread repeats itself on this new thread.

There is clearly a group that believe 100% in the blockchain/crypto's

There is another group that doesn't believe in this whole blockchain/crypto at all. (maybe calling it a fad)

And there is a group that is in between. Who are looking for answers, and the latest tips.

Let me tell you one thing. Nobody... really nobody knows, if the prices will continue to go up or go down. Or even if this whole thing will be a game changer.

I believe their will be some change in some industries.

When I look in the past I see the same pattern people have when new technology arrives. Everybody gets pumped up. Even the same behaviour occured back in 2013 and 2014, when the price of bitcoin exploded and bursted.

I invest in crypto's myself. But I do so in a way that I can also short the downside. So I don't care if the prices go up or down. The more buzz there is, the higher the volatility, the higher returns I get.

In this way I don't really contribute to the whole technology. But it gives me the opportunity to do so in other areas where my contribution is needed the most. And I hope you people can experience the same.

For everyone who's interested in this world, please dive into it. It might be the biggest opportinity of your lifetime.

 

[MJ DeMarco]

There's no justification for the market cap it's at right now.

And do you think Netflix is worth 200X earnings? A lot of things have no justification for their market cap.

Here's another example of someone using Bitcoin in a store to pay for stuff.

Well that didn't look easy or convenient.

 

[Napoolion]

And do you think Netflix is worth 200X earnings? A lot of things have no justification for their market cap.



Well that didn't look easy or convenient.

Maybe time for fast, easy and not awkward bitcoin transaction system ?

 

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[C-Jay]

Maybe time for fast, easy and not awkward bitcoin transaction system ?

This is exactly what other coins are aspiring to do, and they're all ethereum-based. OmiseGo (OMG) is a coin that got mad-hyped (and over-priced) but looks extremely promising. They've partnered with McDonalds Thailand to integrate crypto-payment in the future.

Bitcoin as it is right now is completely unsuitable for quick and easy transaction. Sending bitcoin on blockchain from one address to another can take up to two weeks (when compared to ethereum, which takes seconds after the recent Byzantium fork).

 

[jpmartin]

Well that didn't look easy or convenient.

Neither was the internet when we were using dial up connections But things have changed for the better since... haven't they??

 

[jpmartin]

Sending bitcoin on blockchain from one address to another can take up to two weeks

How much are you sending? We never have that problem! Max is 30 min. Are you choosing the lowest fee?

 

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[jpmartin]

And do you think Netflix is worth 200X earnings? A lot of things have no justification for their market cap.

The markets can stay irrational, longer than we can stay solvent.

 

[C-Jay]

How much are you sending? We never have that problem! Max is 30 min. Are you choosing the lowest fee?

Sorry, I wasn't clear. I was referring to when the backlog is especially high (tens of thousands unconfirmed, usually during ATH periods) and people send with minimal fee and the transaction gets "stuck" for days because it's so congested. 2 weeks was an exaggeration for effect; I've only heard of those cases a couple times.

How much are you sending? We never have that problem! Max is 30 min. Are you choosing the lowest fee?

 

[fhs8]

And do you think Netflix is worth 200X earnings? A lot of things have no justification for their market cap.

I did a little research and I found out that their top line revenue has been increasing very strongly year over year and they're going worldwide and should continue to increase. Their revenue was $8.9 billion in 2016 but they spend about $6 billion in content. My guess is that in the future content and streaming expenses should decrease so that the p/e ratio would actually be quite low if prices stood the same in the future.

Netflix is projected to have an EPS of $5.36 in 2020 which would give it a P/E of 40 and revenue is projected to grow 26% over the next 5 years. My guess is that firms have projections on Netflix for 2030 and beyond. If EPS grew 25% from $5.36 in 2020 to 2030 it would have an EPS of $49.91 which would make it have a P/E of 4 which would be really cheap when you consider future growth beyond that. This is not unreasonable at all when the infrastructure of running Netflix itself is almost 10% of gross revenue and decreasing as technology improves. Almost all the expense is in content. My guess is that there are projections for even faster EPS growth.

The same was said about Amazon a few years ago. P/E way too high. Now Amazon is projected to make almost $30 EPS in 2020. If Amazon stood at $100 a share it would have a P/E of 3 in 2020. Now you know why it's been going up. Stocks can go up years before they are actually profitable because of projections.

Bitcoin itself on the other hand doesn't produce anything.

 

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[TheOwl8]

The same was said about Amazon a few years ago. P/E way too high. Now Amazon is projected to make almost $30 EPS in 2020. If Amazon stood at $100 a share it would have a P/E of 3 in 2020. Now you know why it's been going up. Stocks can go up years before they are actually profitable because of projections.

Amazon is projected to make $30 EPS in 2020? That's three years away, I'm sure nothing will change in three years. And even if Amazon does have earnings of $30 per share, its current price is over a thousand bucks per share. So you're investing a thousand bucks for a projected return of $30 per share per year?

Value investing must be dead.

 

[fhs8]

Amazon is projected to make $30 EPS in 2020? That's three years away, I'm sure nothing will change in three years. And even if Amazon does have earnings of $30 per share, its current price is over a thousand bucks per share. So you're investing a thousand bucks for a projected return of $30 per share per year?

Value investing must be dead.

No. It wouldn't be investing a thousand bucks for a projected return of $30 per share per year because earnings beyond 2020 are expected to continue to grow. By the way if you had invested $10,000 in Amazon IPO you'd have over 5 million today and taxed at a low rate if you were to sell.

 

[Chinobey]

What is the Fastlane's thoughts and experience on the $170BN Crypto phenomenon sweeping the globe?

1) Cryptocurrencies As A Whole (Bitcoin, Etherum, etc) - Currently, Bitcoin is at $5,700 and Etherum is at $300.

A lot are saying that Etherum will surpass Bitcoin due to Etherum being more flexible, whilst Bitcoin is limited in functionality.

Not to mention Etherum being the main ICO enabler.

2) ICO (Initial Coin Offerings) - Companies creating their own exclusive cryptocurrency and selling them via crowdfunding on ICO platforms, in order to fund their business goals.

Billions of dollars have been raised through ICOs already and a lot of experts are saying that institutional capital is awaiting on the sideline and will be deployed in 2018 to further boom ICOs and the Crypto market as a whole.

Of course, regulation is lurking as China temporarily halted ICOs and the SEC has also classified ICOs as securities offerings.

---

Interested to hear everyone's open minded opinions on the future of Crypto and ICOs.

CryptoCurrencies have been good to me was introduced to them a year back but started day trading them in august and thanks to that i have nearly reached the goal i set for myself this year. As for bitcoin,ethereum etc. as an actual currency that will be used i am not sure if it will be as big as everyone expects it to be but hey only time will till. As for ico's not really a fan sure you get the odd good one here and there but in the few months i have been trading i must have seen atleast 5-10 scam ico's that taking upwards of a hundred thousand then just gradually becoming obsolete be careful around ico's and have patience with investments and cryptocurrencies can be very profitable.

 

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[TheCj]

My thoughts on bitcoin ... Person thought wouldn't it be great to be my own bank and create my own money... Bitcoin is born he creates a huge amount of coins for himself easily quickly.. Convinces enough people it is useful/valuable, makes his own rules on how much will be created how people will be paid to create it and how much people will pay and be paid per transaction to use it.. Genius..

Other currencies are created to follow the money, I am probably missing the point, but as far as i have read there are still transaction fee's someone at someone point created the rules for it.. So it being decentralized and border less might matter to some but other currency like US dollars can be used in more than one country..

I would treat it like currency trading, so if you trade currencies then you would be interested in these new currencies..

Would i want to use money that changes in value as much as bitcoin nope...

The people creating the currencies are obviously the people that are making the most from this..

I don't find it hard to believe someone at some time will find a way to compromise this type of currency, maybe aided with ai to create a hack that can attack modify millions of transactions.. I don't know much or enough just my thoughts on light reading about it...

Interesting though..

 

[GetShitDone]

Great responses guys.

I believe in 2018 we will see a boom in Institutional Investment.

1) This article just came out yesterday of a legendary investor's Hedge Fund committing 30% of their $154M fund to Bitcoin:

$154 Million Hedge Fund Stakes 30% of Assets in Bitcoin

2) Today, the world's largest derivatives exchange just announced that they'll have Bitcoin Futures on their platform next year:

Derivatives Giant CME Group to Launch Bitcoin Futures Contract - CoinDesk

Which massively increased the price of Bitcoin today based on the above announcement.

---

We will see institutional capital pour into Bitcoin, Ethereum, ICOs, and more cryptos in 2018 onwards. Which is why I expect this current $170BN Crypto Market to surge even further along with the current major crypto prices.

Bitcoin as @jpmartin mentioned is being accepted day by day by companies. Once the massive speculation begins to cool down and become stable, I believe Bitcoin may then become a tradable day to day currency by the masses... as thats when companies like Amazon will come in and others will follow suit in herd mentality. Which will ultimately skyrocket the price up even more. Or we might just see one of these new coins overtake BTC.

For now, I think we're simply in high speculation mode and the market is using Bitcoin more as a tradable "storage of value" like Gold as opposed to a "currency" like the Dollar.

Nonetheless, speculation will continue to increase more and more as institutional capital pours in 2018 along with more announcements: Which will simply drive the price up closer and closer to the wide range of estimates ranging from $20K all the way to $1M out there.

Whilst that happens, other coins will continue to grow even further like Ethereum as Ethereum begins to be used by more enterprises like JP Morgan and in the real world as a whole.

In my opinion, 2018 will be another bull year for Crypto (Mainly Bitcoin and Ethereum).

Hold is gold.