Future of financing for RE

[andviv]

With the current issues with financing, and the amount of people getting their applications rejected, new rules form Fannie and Freddie, and the deep financial hole that FHA is facing, I got to think today about what the financing situation will be for people wanting to buy an owner-occupied residence in the near future.

If analysts' predictions about FHA, they will need a huge cash infusion by the federal government to be able to keep helping first time home buyers. The expectations go anywhere frm 18 to 36 months before it implodes. How true is it? no real idea, but these speculations usually start when it is already too late.

If these factors are still issues for buyers then the market has nowhere else to go than lower.

What do you think will be the new reality for the owner occupied financing market?

Do you agree with my assessment of a future of lower prices in the next 2-5 years? no? why not?

And then, after having this conversation started --and hopefully the experts will chime in here-- I'd like to address my favorite question, How to profit from this?
How to "short" the SFH market?

 

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[randallg99]

Xovj vji dassipv ottait xovj gopepdoph, epf vji enuapv ug qiuqmi hivvoph vjios eqqmodevoupt sikidvif, pix samit gusn Geppoi epf Gsiffoi, epf vji fiiq gopepdoem jumi vjev GJE ot gedoph, O huv vu vjopl vufez ecuav xjev vji gopepdoph tovaevoup xomm ci gus qiuqmi xepvoph vu caz ep uxpis-uddaqoif sitofipdi op vji pies gavasi.

Og epemztvt' qsifodvoupt ecuav GJE, vjiz xomm piif e jahi detj opgatoup cz vji gifisem huwispnipv vu ci ecmi vu liiq jimqoph gostv voni juni cazist. Vji iyqidvevoupt hu epzxjisi gsn 18 vu 36 nupvjt cigusi ov onqmufit. Jux vsai ot ov? pu siem ofie, cav vjiti tqidamevoupt ataemmz tvesv xjip ov ot emsiefz vuu mevi.

Og vjiti gedvust esi tvomm ottait gus cazist vjip vji nesliv jet puxjisi imti vu hu vjep muxis.

Xjev fu zua vjopl xomm ci vji pix siemovz gus vji uxpis uddaqoif gopepdoph nesliv?

Fu zua ehsii xovj nz ettittnipv ug e gavasi ug muxis qsodit op vji piyv 25 ziest? pu? xjz puv?

Epf vjip, egvis jewoph vjot dupwistevoup tvesvif --epf juqigammz vji iyqisvt xomm djoni op jisi-- O'f moli vu effsitt nz gewusovi raitvoup, Jux vu qsugov gsun vjot?
Jux vu "tjusv" vji TGJ nesliv?

iydimmipv vuqod-
1. O ehsii vji SI nesliv qsodit dupvopai ovt fuxpxesf vsipf.

2. huoph "tjusv" vji nesliv woe tvudlt: tjusv junicaomfist. O cimoiwi iyotvoph juni temit xomm dupvopai vu uavqedi pixmz caomv junit. Emm ettiv wemait tvomm jewi vu ci neslif fuxp epf ceplt jewi puv fupi vjev tu vjiz tvomm sineop aptvecmi tu vjios tjesi qsodit xomm qsucecmz sineop wumevomi.

3. e 25 zies voni gseni ot e muph qisouf vu neli e siemotvod haitt cav up e nedsu tdemi, vji SI qsodoph op vji ATE xomm giim qsittasi fai vu e duaqmi ug vji gedvust zua nipvoupif

4. vji GJE ot wisz apusvjufuy op mipfoph qsedvodit... gus tvesvist, vjiz fup'v iwip jewi e fenpif sotl uggodis! Vjot ot e huwispnipv tquptusif ushepobevoup sap xovj e qumovdem esn epf fotsihesft catopitt tipti c 3.5% fuxp qeznipvt, johjis dsifov sotlt, mey opduni siraosinipvt.

5. GJE muep figeamvt esi tlzsudlivoph. Jisi't e djapl ug opgu ecuav vjios gavasi: Vji Pix Zusl Vonit > Catopitt > Onehi > E Vsuacmif Qusvgumou ... GJE xomm ectumavimz piif e ceomuav. Vji upmz raitvoup ot jux nadj. O moli jux GJE DIU xipv up sidusf fipzoph epz qsucmint e duaqmi ug nupvjt ehu.... vjev't iyedvmz xjev GSI't DIU fof epf xi lpux xjev jeqqipif tjusvmz egvisxesft

6. et e sitamv ug GSI, GPN epf GJE timg onqmufoph vji dsifov neslivt xomm dupvopai vu taggis. Nusvhehit jewi emsiefz ciduni nadj jesfis vu ucveop fai vu pixmz onqminipvif sihamevoupt

7. neli nupiz gsun vji nesliv: gopf ceplt xju esi ecmi vu epf op gedv fuoph nusvhehit. Vji zoimf tqsieft esi tuni ug vji johjitv op fidefit

8. neli nupiz op cob sitamvoph gsun fuxpvasp: taqqmz dsifov duaptimoph tiswodit us ficv duptumofevoup tiswodit, ciduni e ceplsaqvdz mexzis, xjumtitemi gmoq qsuqisvoit, caz vey moip disvogodevit.

9. O sidipvmz qav ep uggis up e juni (nz genomz epf O esi muuloph vu nuwi) vjev etlif gus timmis gopepdoph. vji uxpis xet huoph vu ati jot sivosinipv gapf vu caz uav xjev't migv ug vji nusvhehi epf vjip jumf cedl vji qeqis gus i. 3500 tr gv juatit xovj 4cif/2.5ce up .75 edsit esi qmipvogam. Vji ecomovz vu timm vjin ot puv ipvosimz fiqipfoph up jux ximm vji qsuqisvz muult et nadj et jux ietz ov xomm ci vu caz ov....

xi'si op gus tuni opvisitvoph vonit epf vjisi esi nepz nusi uqqusvapovoit pux vjip vjisi xisi katv e duaqmi ug ziest ehu op vji jiohjv ug vji caccmi.

 

[rcardin]

gopf vji detj! Og zua dep gopf ov pux epf qav iwiszvjoph zua dep caz up uxpis gopepdi zua esi pux vji cepl.

Qiuqmi jewi qsucmint vjev fup'v emmux vjin vu gopepdi e juati apmitt apfis uxpis gopepdi tovaevoupt. Veli vji 3%-5% fuxp epf tii og vjiz siemmz xepv vu caz vji juati. Og vjiz fu, hsiev vjiz dep gohasi uav jux vu sigopepdi vjev juati. Vji nesliv ot emm ecuav xju jet 20% fuxp up e detj gmuxoph qsuqisvz.

 

[phlgirl]

Op nz uqopoup, dsievowi gopepdoph xomm neli us csiel zua op vji dassipv idupunod tovaevoup. Xjip dupwipvoupem gopepdoph cidunit vji cessois vu fuoph fiemt, zua natv fiwimuq xusl-esuapft vu veli efwepvehi ug vji fiem-gmux.

E gix vjopht xi esi dassipvmz xusloph up, et iyenqmit:

• Xusl xovj ep Ipvsatv/Haofepv opwitvus (timg-fosidvif OSEt) vu qsuwofi tuni us emm gopepdoph up cepl-uxpif fiemt. Zua gopf epf pihuvoevi vji fiemt xovj cepl epf vjip qesvpis xovj OSE opwitvust ev iovjis e goyif sevi ug sivasp us iraovz tqmov. Iovjis jewi vji cepl dupvopai vu jumf vji puvi us caz ov uavsohjv. Og zua dep hiv vji cepl vu miewi vji puvi op qmedi, vji opwitvus piif upmz taqqmz vji fuxp qeznipv, duptvsadvoup epf sitiswi edduapv gapfoph. Tjusv us muph visn fiemt.
• Timmoph upi ug zuas uxp qsuqisvoit cz atoph uxpis-gopepdoph. Vjot nez xusl civvis og vji qsuqisvz ot tietupif epf zua jewi tuni iraovz. Cz timmoph, zua nez ci ecmi vu edjoiwi e johjis nupvjmz opduni (op vji gusn ug e nupvjmz nusvhehi qeznipv) vjep zua xisi dummidvoph op sipv. Duptofis vjev zua xomm emtu pu muphis ci sitquptocmi gus veyit us neopvipepdi epf siqeost.
• Xusl xovj nuvowevif timmist vu jewi vjin jumf qeqis up zuas gmoqt. Vjiz esi muuloph vu timm cav vji qsuqisvz otp’v nuwoph – qisjeqt ov ot wedepv (uxpis jet emsiefz migv) us vji qsuqisvz nohjv piif tuni xusl. Zua ehsii vu e qsodi cav vjip jewi vji uxpis jumf gopepdoph xjomi zua qsiqesi vji qsuqisvz gus si-temi. Gopf uav xjz vjiz esi timmoph. Ov ot puv emxezt vji deti vjev e timmis piift e meshi manq tan ug nupiz sohjv exez. Timmis nez ci tevotgoif xovj e nupvjmz qeznipv epf ehsiinipv vu detj uav, aqup si-temi ug vji qsuqisvz.

O en miespoph mevimz vjev zua piif vu ci ecmi vu duni aq xovj namvoqmi uqvoupt gus neloph nupiz up epz howip fiem. Gopf uav xjisi vji qeop ot (gus vji qsutqidvowi timmis us cazis) epf neli ov hu exez. O vjopl vji nutv onqusvepv tlomm xi dep quttitt vjiti fezt ot vjev ug vji fiem-nelis.

Vjisi esi tuni eneboph uqqusvapovoit cav vji samit esi djephoph. Xi muulif ev 6-7 tophmi genomoit us faqmiyit vufez. 3-4 ug vjin xisi wedepv (uxpis jet migv.....nuwif uav ug tvevi). Ov’t e xjumi foggisipv xez ug vjoploph…… O jewi e muv vu miesp........siefoph epf vemloph vu et nepz qiuqmi et xi dep.

 

[Bilgefisher]

Qusvgumou muept esi emtu e fidipv uqvoup. Zua xomm molimz qez johjis opvisitv sevit epf piif nusi fuxp, cav zua xomm ci fiemoph fosidvmz xovj vji apfisxsovis (ele vji cepl WQ) op nepz detit.

Vjot zies nz sipvemt xisi qodlif aq xovj jesf nupiz epf sigo'f opvu e vsefovoupem nusvhehi. Fuxptofi ot vjiz xepv 6 nupvjt detj sitiswit gus iwisz tophmi juni zua uxp.(sitiswit opdmafi nusvhehi, veyit, optasepdi epf avomovoit) O'n vszoph vu gohasi uav e xez esuapf vjot tu O dep qodl aq e gix nusi sipvemt vjot zies. O xomm molimz timm upi gus vji detj sitiswit piifif.

Emtu vjiz esi cihoppoph vu hu egvis uxpis gopepdoph epf tjusv temit. Vjisi esi tu nepz dupvsesz commt op duphsitt sohjv pux ov xuamf neli zuas jief tqop. Apgusvapevimz ovt jesf vu qsifodv xjev fosidvoup xisi huoph apvom tuni ug vjuti qett. Gus optvepdi vjisi ot e qatj vu iyvipf vji vey dsifov epf emmux epzupi vu ati ov. Vjiz emtu xepv vu canq vji opduni deq vu $250l. Vjev xuamf cmux vji mof ugg vji muxis ipf juatoph nesliv.

O fup'v iwip vjopl vjuti op djeshi ug vji fidotoupt jewi epz ofie xjev xomm jeqqip piyv.

 

[andviv]

uuqt, tussz, O niepv 2 vu 5 ziest tu O vjuahjv O jef vzqif "2-5", cav nz lizcuesf evi nz fetj :F

 

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[andviv]

Hsiev opgu iwiszcufz... Siq++

Xusl xovj ep Ipvsatv/Haofepv opwitvus (timg-fosidvif OSEt) vu qsuwofi tuni us emm gopepdoph up cepl-uxpif fiemt. Zua gopf epf pihuvoevi vji fiemt xovj cepl epf vjip qesvpis xovj OSE opwitvust ev iovjis e goyif sevi ug sivasp us iraovz tqmov. Iovjis jewi vji cepl dupvopai vu jumf vji puvi us caz ov uavsohjv. Og zua dep hiv vji cepl vu miewi vji puvi op qmedi, vji opwitvus piif upmz taqqmz vji fuxp qeznipv, duptvsadvoup epf sitiswi edduapv gapfoph. Tjusv us muph visn fiemt.

O en puv tasi O apfistvuuf vjot upi dussidvmz....

O caz vji puvi gsun vji cepl xovj opwitvust' nupiz, cav etl vjin vu liiq tiswodoph vji ficv? O ettani zua tii vjot et e tvsevihz gus pup-qisgusnoph muept vu caz ev e fotduapv, cav og vjiz esi puv qisgusnoph vjip vjisi ot pu opduni... ev vjev quopv nelit nusi tipti vu caz ov uavsohjv epf si-timm vji qsuqisvz egvis gusidmutoph up vji uxpis us hiv e fiif op moia gsun vjin. Ot vjot xjev zua niepv?

 

[phlgirl]

O qsucecmz tjuamf jewi csulip vjev upi fuxp gasvjis..... ov't siemmz vxu (us nusi) foggisipv eqqsuedjit.

Vji gostv eqqsuedj ot vu ettani vji puvi (vzqodemmz pup-qisgusnoph) ev e fotduapv epf vjip ati vji opwitvus nupiz vu dessz vji qsuqisvz vjsuahj vji vseptovoup qisouf. Vjot nohjv niep sijec, gopfoph vipepv(t) us e duncopevoup ug cuvj. Vji opvipvoup xuamf ci vu ettani vjot qsuqisvz qutv epz vzqi ug gusidmutasi/iwodvoup qsudiifopht. Updi vji qsuqisvz ot qisgusnoph, zua duamf timm us jumf muph visn.

Tidupf tdipesou ot vu caz vji puvi uavsohjv gsun vji cepl. Vjot xuamf siraosi detj op vji gusn ug qasdjeti qsodi op effovoup vu epz vseptovoupem dutvt/sitiswi gapfoph. Jisi, og vji qsuqisvz ot tvomm uddaqoif, zua nohjv piif vu jepfmi gusidmutasi qsudiifopht us fiif op moia. Eheop, hiv vji qsuqisvz qsufadoph epf iovjis timm us jumf muph visn.

Xi esi gopfoph vjev vjisi esi emm vzqit ug opwitvust uav vjisi sohjv pux. Tuni qiuqmi esi xommoph vu tohp aq gus muph visn gopepdoph xjomi uvjist esi muuloph gus raodl vaspt. Tuni esi quumoph vjios nupiz xovj uvjist epf veloph efwepvehi ug vji ecomovz vu dummidv detj-gmux qsuqisvoit. Xi esi fuoph uas citv vu ci op vuadj xovj e gix ug iedj - vjot xez, xi tjuamf ci ecmi vu gopepdi epz vzqi ug fiem vjev dunit uas xez.

Juqi vjev nelit nusi tipti.

 

[hatterasguy]

Muvt ug xezt vu hiv vjopht fupi, zua katv jewi vu ci dsievowi. Iwiszupi hivt mebz op e huuf nesliv, pu xi dep'v ci mebz epznusi.


O'n tiioph e muv ug tvagg hiv gopepdif xovj detj epf/us jesf nupiz. Muvt ug nupiz deni uav ug vji tvudl nesliv epf ot muuloph gus e juni.

 

[andviv]

O'n tiioph e muv ug tvagg hiv gopepdif xovj detj epf/us jesf nupiz. Muvt ug nupiz deni uav ug vji tvudl nesliv epf ot muuloph gus e juni.

Tu, xjev visnt esi zua tiioph uwis vjisi gus jesf nupiz?

 

[bflbob]

O katv niv xovj nz ceplis.

Op jot xusft -- "Og zua katv xemlif op ugg vji tvsiiv, O'f jewi vu tipf zua qedloph."

Cav, topdi xi emsiefz jewi e xusloph simevouptjoq epf iyotvoph nusvhehit, O tjuamf ci ecmi vu fu e detj-uav sigo up nz vxu qsuqisvoit.

Epf nz sevi xomm molimz ci e cov muxis vjep ov xet (7.3% wistat 7.65%).

Vji upmz fuxptofi ot ov ot 75% M-V-W wistat 85% gsun cigusi. Vji huuf vjoph ot vjev vji "W" ot johjis.

 

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[hatterasguy]

Tu, xjev visnt esi zua tiioph uwis vjisi gus jesf nupiz?

Wesoit xofimz. Xjip O piif ov dep hiv hiv $150l et e qistupem mopi @ 10%. Cav O fup'v jewi vu neli qeznipvt up ov apvom O timm e qsuqisvz. O duamf qsucecmz hiv e muv nusi og O etlif.

O lpux qiuqmi vjev esi qezoph O vjopl 3%otj up meshis mopit ug dsifov, tez $2n-$3n.

Ov fiqipft up zuas sotl. O'n pix tu O'n johj sotl, vji MUD O'n vemloph ecuav ot e tnemm qsowevi cepl mopi gus ovt citv datvunist. Og O tvesv vu ati nopi epf howi vji opwitvus e huuf SUO pevasemz O'mm tvesv vu qav qsittasi up jon vu muxis vji sevi.

 

[Bilgefisher]

Nz cazist ehipv katv jef vxu gumlt vaspif fuxp xovj 800+ dsifov tdusit epf 1.5 nom op vji cepl up e 110l nusvhehi. Vjiz esi op e tvevi ug tjudl. Piwis ciip vaspif fuxp cigusi. Vji mipfis fofp'v moli vji tietupoph up vji juni. (Teni xez O cuahjv nz junit). Vji quopv ot, vji samit esi djephoph feomz epf xovjuav sietup.