Why is the economy down? Or is it?

[HCBailly]

Some friends and I were watching TV and saw all these commercials about the economy, tough times, and economic stimulus packages. It got us talking about why the economy is down, or if it even really is down at all. I thought I’d share our discussion here. Obviously, the economy is driven by consumer spending, which is way down. There are two possibilities as to why this has occurred: they are unable to spend, or they are unwilling to spend.

I highly doubt that most people are unable to spend. Of course, the stock market crash was terrible, but how many people’s lives did that REALLY affect? I don’t know a single person whose entire income is dependent on the stock market. At worst, I could see the crash impacting people’s retirement plans, but I can’t see that influencing regular spending habits.

The crash in the real estate market has obviously impacted some family’s ability to move where they want to live or even the increase in their mortgage payments. To my knowledge, this really has only affected a small percentage of the population who had these bad mortgages.

Then, there are job losses, which I could see how that could impact spending ability. If you take all three of these factors together, I would think that you might have AT MOST 10% of our country’s population. It seems highly improbable that a loss of 10% of the population’s spending ability would create such an incredible impact on total consumer spending.

Thus, we came to the conclusion that consumer spending is down because they are unwilling to spend. People have the money. It’s not like it vanished into thin air. The money had to go somewhere. So why are people unwilling to spend?

Fear. Why people are afraid of spending money, I don’t know. Are people afraid of spending because their retirement fund might go down? I seriously doubt that. I can see how fewer homes selling could impact some spending, but that’s not based on fear.

The only thing I can think of is that people are afraid of their living expenses increasing and/or losing their job. Even that really isn’t logical. Maybe it’s because I actually have a budget and can monitor the increase in my expenses, but they haven’t increased that greatly from year to year.

As for the job market, I know that massive layoffs are terrible, and I don’t mean to belittle the impact it has on the economy. But that sort of thing happens all the time. It just gets more coverage now, because people perceive the economy to be down. Last time I checked, unemployment wasn’t nearly that bad, relative to other periods in history. So why are people afraid of that?

I guess if people thought it through, they probably wouldn’t be so afraid. Fear is almost never logical, I suppose.

 

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[CMCarlin]

Just out of curiosity, have you been able to watch or read any news shows / wesbsites / papers at all in the last 6 months or so?

One thing is in your post, you make broad assumptions based on opinion, then base the rest of your assumptions off that. It's always good to gather facts first, then move on.

Also, a record breaking number of layoffs just doesn't 'happen all the time'. If you've been reading up, you'd realize that what has been happening in our economy over the last few years is unprecedented.

I say it's a great mix of people NOT ABLE to spend what they were used to and people not wanting to. People that are still OK financially see what's been happening so they are saving up and tightening their belts to prepare for their own personal economic storm. Consumer and investor confidence is at a historic low.

 

[HCBailly]

I think that story is being blown out of proportion, which is creating the fear that I speak of. Yes, there are a record number of layoffs, but unemployment is based on a percentage of the total population. We are still well below 10% unemployment, which does happen all the time. During the Great Depression, it went over 20%. I think people need a reality check and realize that things aren’t nearly as bad as they could be.

 

[CMCarlin]

While I do agree that there is a lot of FEAR out there, and while some may be over-reaction I think a lot of it is not irrational thought. At today's numbers, even if unemployment reaches half (10%) of what is was in 1934 (20%), it is still about 5 million more that it was at that record breaking time. Also, it's not just about the severity of the numbers, it's also because everything is happening really really fast. Envision a roller coaster going into a downslope, picking up more and more speed except in this roller coaster, you don't know when you'll hit bottom. That's where the fear is coming from. This is all happening relatively fast and no one knows when the ride will end so people are tightening their seat belts, trying to ride it all out.

 

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[MJ DeMarco]

I think the opposite of you ... I believe the economy is worse than we know. The last 5 years the economy was fueled by cheap and fictitious money due to the housing boom. That funny money was then exponentiated thru the system in the form of assets, derivatives, etc that further escalated the funny money in the form of unrealized gains, overvalued assets, etc.

IMHO, things will get worse.

 

[CMCarlin]

Precisely. In this case, the more you know about the situation, the more scary the reality becomes. In your original post, you made multiple comments about assuming or guessing. I think if you have read up on the various mortgage schemes that have happened and why all these banks have had to write off losses these last couple of years you would be much more fearful of what's to come. MJ is right. A lot of wealth was built upon a house of cards. "A lot" would be an under statement. Anyway, this house of cards is now coming down. Everything was leveraged to the max and now we are seeing a correction.

 

[HCBailly]

Wow, I never expected to hear such doom and gloom from such a wealthy group of people. So what are we supposed to do? It can’t be that nobody is making money from stocks, real estate, business, or jobs.

You make it sound like the world is coming to an end and we might as well just kill ourselves now. Obviously, that’s not the case, but you guys seem to be far more afraid than the crowd I hang out with.

 

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[Edge]

Wow, I never expected to hear such doom and gloom from such a wealthy group of people. So what are we supposed to do? It can’t be that nobody is making money from stocks, real estate, business, or jobs.

You make it sound like the world is coming to an end and we might as well just kill ourselves now. Obviously, that’s not the case, but you guys seem to be far more afraid than the crowd I hang out with.

Don't confuse someone correctly identifying a large transfer of wealth with doom-and-gloom.

Too many people hear the word "crash" and they either decide to stay out of that market or seize up in fear. As an investor, when you hear the word crash, you need to figure out how to profit from it and run towards the situation. A crash is a large transfer of wealth, all you need to do is funnel a little tiny bit of that wealth towards you.

 

[Kung Fu Steve]

A crash is a large transfer of wealth, all you need to do is funnel a little tiny bit of that wealth towards you.

I agree with JScott. Rep+ for this profound statement!

Although I think HCBaily has some good points. This is going to be the excuse of the century "well... you know how the economy is..."

"Why don't you want to sign up for martial arts?"
"Well, you know how the economy is..."

"Why don't you want to go do something fun?"
"Well, you know how the economy is..."

"Why don't you adopt a puppy?"
"Well, you know how the economy is..."

"Why don't you go grocery shopping?"
"Well, you know how the economy is..."

"Why is it so damn cold this winter?"
"Well, you know how the economy is..."

Ha ha it gets a little old. That's why I love this crowd, everyone here is focused on solutions instead of excuses!

 

[randallg99]

Wow, I never expected to hear such doom and gloom from such a wealthy group of people. So what are we supposed to do? It can’t be that nobody is making money from stocks, real estate, business, or jobs.

You make it sound like the world is coming to an end and we might as well just kill ourselves now. Obviously, that’s not the case, but you guys seem to be far more afraid than the crowd I hang out with.

I can sympathize with your sentiments .... after being in a couple of posh restaurants in the past few months and seeing a lot of twenty-somethings (I like trying to be young) partying like it's 1999 again has me believing that a lot of people are either resilient or simply oblivious to the situation...

I am in my late 30s and you're in your 20s.... so the peers have possibly different outlooks which can determine & shape your own perspective.

people on this forum are hitting the nail on the head though - until credit markets loosen up and asset devaluations finish, we are going to face a mound of wealth depletion...

while I agree with most peoples posts and their responses to you, I have to disagree that a wealth transfer is NOT happening. Actual net asset values have simply been depleted because they were artificially inflated.

 

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[randallg99]

and to continue my thoughts... Edge has it right.... it's our job to create the opportunity and seize it. From your post, you may have already done just that if the economic downturn has not affected you

 

[MattThomas]

I think the opposite of you ... I believe the economy is worse than we know. The last 5 years the economy was fueled by cheap and fictitious money due to the housing boom. That funny money was then exponentiated thru the system in the form of assets, derivatives, etc that further escalated the funny money in the form of unrealized gains, overvalued assets, etc.

IMHO, things will get worse.

A few months ago ft.com stated that the recession we are facing is changing from one that was a credit crisis/financial meltdown recession, to an old fashioned, high employment and low customer spending recession.

While there are a lot of bad assets out there, the market is and has been over-correcting company valuations based on this fictitious money. It wouldn't be fair to say that these bad assets have been accounted for as far as valuation, but a good amount of it has been identified and it is only a matter of time before more and more regulation is put into place to deal with these toxic assets appropriately. Plus, the fed has been pumping the economy with liquidity and a 0% fed funds rate, to keep banks lending.

There are high levels of unemployment and low levels of consumer spending, but if one thing is for certain, it is that financial markets and the economy as a whole is LARGELY emotional. Humans do not behave in a rational manner and will act on feelings first. People will prepare for the worst, even if the worst hasn't happened yet.

There is a lot of fear in the system, which is a huge driver for how customers are spending their money. The media does a great job at making things seems depressing and gloomy, because depressing and gloomy sells.

That said, yes our situation is bad, very bad. But it is cyclical, we have faced similar crises before, we have faced recessions before. When commenting on this recession, a finance professor I had said it best: we have been through a lot worse: two world wars, a great depression, presidential assassinations, a civil war and still our market and economy bounces back and breaks records. So our economy is suffering right now, but its not doom and gloom, we are just in a valley right now instead of a peak.

 

[CMCarlin]

For years, Americans were told that they needed to save more money...now they're starting to do it, and it's having ripple effects throughout the entire monetary system...

I just happened to catch this article. Seems pretty relevant:

Americans Saving More When Economy Needs Spending Most

 

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[bflbob]

I just read about California running out of cash.

I can see a new problem coming down the road from this.

One thing they AREN'T paying is state income tax refunds.

Due to the high mortgage values in CA, property taxes are high in $'s.
People used their state income tax refunds to pay their property taxes.
Now, due to the state, they can't make those payments.

Here's what I see coming:

State Tax Guy: Here's your $12,000 refund, a year late. We've added 3% interest ($360) for the delay, which is well over market interest rates.

Property Tax Guy: Here's your $12,000 property tax bill. We've added 20% in late fees, plus charged you $800 for legal ads notifying your neighbors of your tax delinquency. You've got 30 days to pay the $15,200 balance or it goes to tax sale.

 

[I85]

You make it sound like the world is coming to an end and we might as well just kill ourselves now. Obviously, that’s not the case, but you guys seem to be far more afraid than the crowd I hang out with.

J/W, who is this crowd you speak of? Friends? Coworkers? Family?
How much do they have to lose? How much do they have saved back? It is a lot easier to not worry, when you don't have much to lose.

I know of multiple people who have been laid off in the past 12 months, from jobs they were at for over 10 years. I also know quite a few small business owners who are having one of the toughest times ever and some of them have been in business for over 30 years(these aren't new startups). Nothing is a guarantee right now.

Personally, I am saving up as much as I can. Of course I plan on using that money in the near future, not just sticking it in the bank and letting it sit.

I could make a call any night of the week and find a bunch of buddies that are out at the bar blowing all their money, doesn't mean everything is fine and it certainly doesn't mean I'm gonna go blow all my money.

 

[HCBailly]

I live in the Chicagoland area and the people I’m talking to are mostly my friends, but also my family and clients. We’re not even close to rich, but certainly well off, and we all have steady income. Maybe it’s because my friends and I are young and dumb (perhaps a little naïve too), but we see plenty of ways to at least get through this economy. While I admit I’m not doing great right now, it certainly could be a whole lot worse.

I did an interesting calculation recently. I was considering the worst case scenario where I would lose my home. How much would that impact my cashflow compared to wherever else I would have to live?

It was surprisingly not as much as I thought. In fact, I could rent out my two extra bedrooms for under market value and be in the same place as if I downgraded to a 1-bedroom condo. I’ve already got my brother to get a job and start contributing soon.

On the bright side, through all of this, my taxes are way down from 2007; albeit, partially due to a sharp decrease in gross income. Until a month ago, business was doing okay, probably due to the winter season. I’m sure things will get better in the spring, as they always do. I’ve got some ideas that I’m sure will make a solid impact. Until then, I just have to tough it out.

 

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[CMCarlin]

What you see in front of you may not be the same case as others. Other people may be experiencing this event entirely different.

 

[hatterasguy]

I think that story is being blown out of proportion, which is creating the fear that I speak of.

I know people who have been laid off.

I know people who have lost their companies and lost multi million dollar real estate projects.

I know people who have lost millions in the markets, and I know other people who may not be able to retire for many, many years because of this.

Everyone who owns property has taken a nice hit on the equity side.

Credit is damn near impossible to get, even hard money is hard to come by. ( pun, lol!)

I took a nice hit selling a used house.

So far I thankfully only know one person who has killed themselves as a result of this crash.

So while I agree the media loves throwing fuel on the fire, I say you should open up the Wall Street Journal more often...because these days the pages are covered in blood...most financial, sadly some real.

My favorite Rothschild quote, which I picked up several years ago is turning to be quite true indeed. Once when asked how should an aspiring fortune builder, build his fortune Mayer Amschel Rothschild advised him to "buy while blood was running in the streets."

Its amazing how history repeats, and how a 300 year old sentence can be so pertinant today.

 

[randallg99]

didn't want to rehash this but I was recently at dinner with friends talking about the current environment and made the following observations:

first- several of my friends:
1. civil engineer - had to switch firms recently due to lack of work, for less pay
2. lumber distributor sales - scared for his job
3. vp of regional bank sales - very concerned for the outlook for his own job and his bank has just been bought out
4. national sales for shoe company has lost many clients due to GOB
5. commercial landlord who owns 1mil square feet of space is losing the little hair he has left due to delinquencies
6. a video producer has been out of work for 6 months
7. flower importer is seeing his recievables get out of hand
8. friend selling plastic surgery materials switched to pharma... not enough people buying silicone today


the ones who are doing good:
1. friend who owns 15 burger kings has seen revenues skyrocket
2. another friend who owns 7 supermarkets and several liquor stores are all expanding margins as retail food pricing remains level while shipping costs have dropped

 

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[GLC65]

Wow, I never expected to hear such doom and gloom from such a wealthy group of people. So what are we supposed to do? It can’t be that nobody is making money from stocks, real estate, business, or jobs.

You make it sound like the world is coming to an end and we might as well just kill ourselves now. Obviously, that’s not the case, but you guys seem to be far more afraid than the crowd I hang out with.

It is not a bunch of doom and gloom but it is the FACTS. Things will get worse before it gets better. I don`t know what planet you are on, but forget watching the news, look around and see it for yourself. Go around and drive by around subdivisions and see how many foreclosure for sale signs are out there. Drive by and visit the car dealerships, and I don`t mean the exotic ones, the regular ones. Talk to business people and friends and relatives and see what they have to say; not opinions but ask them about their friends who are hurting. Banks are not lending since last October and this country is about to print over a trillion dollars worth of money due to poor leadership(my opinion). You need to free up lending so small to middle class business owners can borrow, grow, hire, and expand.

 

[Runum]

As you can see in my profile to the left I'm 49 yo. I went through stagflation in the 70's. I went through unbelievable interest rates in the early 80's.(I still remember the day the DJIA broke 1000) I went through the DJIA crash in 1987 and the S&L crash in the late 80's early 90's. I also went through the tech crash in the early part of this decade. In each case, the sky was falling, we were doomed.

Throughout all of those scenarios I played the victim. I was scared, mad, and worried all at the same time. My only action was to sit at the lunch table and gripe like my coworkers. That I can recall none of us made any plans or took any action. We all just kept doing what we were doing being good little employees. We lost economic ground in 100% of those cases.

I'm going through this now just like the rest of you. The only difference is my reaction. I am doing, planning, trying new things. What has been working isn't working now. The rules to the game have changed. I agree, change is uncomfortable and painful.

But, I refuse to go back to those lunch tables and sit around with those guys that are still there bellyaching and griping about the economy. I refuse to be a victim. I may lose ground but it won't be from inaction. I choose, everyday, to take some action, learn something new, try something new, make a new contact.

Yes, I am concerned. My tenants have just now caught up on all of their back rents. They are struggling. I have one vacancy that is troubling. I am not ignoring the problems but I am not going to dwell on them either.

Changes I am making....I am back to reading more books on subjects I have had no interest in. I have lunches with people I haven't seen in many years. I am working out and lost weight. I am learning Spanish to help me rent to more tenants. I am trying to adapt to the new rules in this economy and use them to my advantage.

What, specifically, are you doing now, today?:cheers:

 

[GLC65]

I filed personal bankruptcy back in 1991 during our last recession. I make mistakes but never want to make the same mistakes twice. Never ever in my wildest dreams did I think the credit markets will be shut down. I agree with Runun and am doing something about our economic turmoil instead of sitting around and whine and feel sorry for myself with a bunch of friends who are all depressed and are waiting for a pot of gold to fall on their lap. Whenever I had major down units, 300 plus as an example, I was always able to call my bank and get a six month signature bridge loan. Not anymore. What I do is as long as I am profitable globally, I do not panic and do as many as we can afford on a monthly basis and try to downsize our staff and reduce expenses. Just grateful that we are profitable and able to pay our mortgages and utility bills. I no longer take payment plans. Anyone who has not paid by the fifteenth of the month goes to eviction. Things will get worse for me before it gets better. The banks want their money and the utility company wants theirs as well and do not have any problems shutting down utitlities on a 400 plus unit community if they do not get their money. Also, utility companies are demanding ridiculous deposits if you are not timely with their money. Due to the current and future dim economic situation, it is survival of the fittest and I have no other choice but to be black and white with all of my tenants.

 

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[Runum]

I filed personal bankruptcy back in 1991 during our last recession. I make mistakes but never want to make the same mistakes twice. Never ever in my wildest dreams did I think the credit markets will be shut down. I agree with Runun and am doing something about our economic turmoil instead of sitting around and whine and feel sorry for myself with a bunch of friends who are all depressed and are waiting for a pot of gold to fall on their lap. Whenever I had major down units, 300 plus as an example, I was always able to call my bank and get a six month signature bridge loan. Not anymore. What I do is as long as I am profitable globally, I do not panic and do as many as we can afford on a monthly basis and try to downsize our staff and reduce expenses. Just grateful that we are profitable and able to pay our mortgages and utility bills. I no longer take payment plans. Anyone who has not paid by the fifteenth of the month goes to eviction. Things will get worse for me before it gets better. The banks want their money and the utility company wants theirs as well and do not have any problems shutting down utitlities on a 400 plus unit community if they do not get their money. Also, utility companies are demanding ridiculous deposits if you are not timely with their money. Due to the current and future dim economic situation, it is survival of the fittest and I have no other choice but to be black and white with all of my tenants.

Thanks Gus. Just a suggestion...Have you considered taking on a partner or partners to share the load?

 

[biophase]

I live in the Chicagoland area and the people I’m talking to are mostly my friends, but also my family and clients. We’re not even close to rich, but certainly well off, and we all have steady income. Maybe it’s because my friends and I are young and dumb (perhaps a little naïve too), but we see plenty of ways to at least get through this economy. While I admit I’m not doing great right now, it certainly could be a whole lot worse...

It was surprisingly not as much as I thought. In fact, I could rent out my two extra bedrooms for under market value and be in the same place as if I downgraded to a 1-bedroom condo. I’ve already got my brother to get a job and start contributing soon.

On the bright side, through all of this, my taxes are way down from 2007; albeit, partially due to a sharp decrease in gross income. Until a month ago, business was doing okay, probably due to the winter season. I’m sure things will get better in the spring, as they always do. I’ve got some ideas that I’m sure will make a solid impact. Until then, I just have to tough it out.

Didn't Mayor Daley warn of huge layoffs coming soon from large Chicago corporations? I think you are not looking at the larger picture. You and all your friends may have secure jobs so you may think that other people losing their jobs or cutting spending does not affect you.

When others stop spending it will affect you but maybe not right away.

For example, a person gets a pay cut, decides not to pay child support because he can't. The mother therefore can't afford to pay rent to the landlord. This causes the landlord to miss mortage payments and go into foreclosure. This foreclosure affects a small bank in the neighborhood.

Or people get laid off, they all cut back on toys or clothes, this lowers sales at a local shop causing them to lay off a few people and the cycle starts again and stores eventually close. This affect distributors and they begin lowering their purchase requests. This affects the large corporation that you work for and they announce a round of layoffs.

So it may not affect you now and you maybe can't see how 8,000 people layoffs in a different state would affect your job now, but the cascading effect will eventually reach out to you in some way.

 

[GLC65]

Thanks Gus. Just a suggestion...Have you considered taking on a partner or partners to share the load?

It is like pulling teeth for me now but I am managing. I like to go at a faster pace but due to budget constraints, I can only do a little at a time. There was a time last year where I was losing $500,000.00 per month. I am above water now and globally profitable. I had alot of bad experience in long term partnerships and do believe in them but not on long term deals like apartment complexes. I am somewhat stabilized but the losses I took last year is still a big hit to swallow. I learned a lot and now realize anything and everything is possible. Seen a lot of people in the same business I am in go belly up. Just need to be positive, like you said, and learn from your past mistakes, the economy, and take it day by day and have a productive day every day. You let your guards down, everything you have worked for can go down the drain. Like climbing a mountain. Very challenging going up but easy to fall down. I am open minded though for a partner in the future. It is like having property in the ghetto. I had partners before but do not want to go back to having partners again. Like to be small and enjoy my freedom and not report to anyone. I don`t want to start all over again in the ghetto either. I am 44 and it is different than when I was 34 and do not have the patience to deal with the drug dealers, gang members, prostitutes, and hear bunch of bull shit every single day.

 

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[callmelucid]

well unemployment is 7.6%

those people arent spending and that doesnt include all the people struggling to get by or people who have their time cut at their jobs.

plus a lot of people retirement plans have been cut by 50% or more.

so when there is little money moving and government is spending trillioins of dollars more than it usually spends and congress is giving itself raises, where do you think this transfer of wealth/power is going to?

 

[cfittowin]

Good posts guys, as many of you probably already know, more millionaires were made during the great depression than in any other time period in U.S. History. Unemployment has hit staggering levels and this is a very real scenario, but fear is the driving factor which many of you have mentioned. Fear is a powerful motivator in all aspects of life. Employers fear the economy will not turn around and lay workers off. Banks will not extend credit lines to companies in fear they can't repay the debt. Employees fear they could lose their jobs or have already lost their jobs and spend less. Investors fear they will lose their investment even though deep down they know there are sound companies out their with superb balance sheets to handle these tough times. You probably get the point by now. The government has moved faster than the Japanese in their "lost decade" to thwart these dire situations, but these actions will take time before we see problems fixed.
Now this all goes back to MJ's and many other posts. Like what Runum and GLC are doing in the posts above, the self-millionaires during the great depression did not spend their evenings hanging out and listening to the radio. They were people just like us who created their own opportunties by looking for what humans need and then build companies which satify those needs. Rather than waiting for bailouts more businesses need to be created in the free enterprise system we live in today.

 

[hatterasguy]

well unemployment is 7.6%

those people arent spending and that doesnt include all the people struggling to get by or people who have their time cut at their jobs.

plus a lot of people retirement plans have been cut by 50% or more.

so when there is little money moving and government is spending trillioins of dollars more than it usually spends and congress is giving itself raises, where do you think this transfer of wealth/power is going to?

"whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness."
-Jefferson

The criminals in DC would do well to remember these words.

 

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[randallg99]

....

So it may not affect you now and you maybe can't see how 8,000 people layoffs in a different state would affect your job now, but the cascading effect will eventually reach out to you in some way.

when someone is laid off from their job, they usually do not have enough resources to support themselves and/or family through hardships and will have to rely on others.

Well, when the recently unemployed goes to their brother/sis/parent/cousin/friend to hit them up for a $100 or 1k or 10k, then those who just lent that money will immediately cut back on discretionary spending.

the fallout is very catalytic and spreads fast.

 

[andviv]

"whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness."
-Jefferson

The criminals in DC would do well to remember these words.

I really wonder two things from this post:

1) What are you trying to communicate with this message? no, seriously... what?

2) Why do you think we care here in this forum? Haven't you noticed that we are looking for ways to profit/benefit, no matter the conditions?

I honestly believe you thought this was that other forum and posted this here by mistake.


Comments like this takes us nowhere (or at least no positive ending can come out of this).

It is not entirely your fault... this post was doomed since its inception... there was no way this topic will stay out of trouble.

Seriously though, isn't there anything good/positive/productive we can talk here other than this, that takes us nowhere?

I know, I know, it is very cool to play Bernanke, or threat to overthrow the government, or pretend that we know better than everybody else and we are always right... but c'mon, this is not the forum to do it. Or am I the one that is confused here?