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What's wrong with this 'FIRE' retirement plan?

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Prince33

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Well the elephant in the room is her and her husband are pulling in around 200K to even play at these numbers. But combined with a low cost of living country I can how it's possible. I know the principals of why FIRE isnt wise. But I'd like to learn exactly why this isn't fastlane/a smart path. So looking forward to any input.
 

Prince33

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However even MJ says in his books that when you're playing with lots of capital and big money the game is very different even with slowlane methods. Why I'd like your guys opinion. I saw some fascinating stuff on wallstreetbets on reddit as well. People throwing 10K+ at stocks and risking it all and just eventually hit after doing it so many times.

Having a lot of capital is surely a different game than most us can even qualify for.
 

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Financial independence is different from being "rich". And you're right. The approach to building up the initial nest egg is different from using a pile of cash to create long-term passive income.

So, your question has to do with the wisdom of throwing cash at different stocks to see which one blooms -- while the others, in fact almost all of them, crash and burn. I think it's crazy and reckless. I HATE to lose money for no good reason or on a stupid bet. If you lose on 9 out of 10 -- on the one you win, you must have a 9 times up side to just break even. How often does that happen? Is that a plan, or a bunch of sequential terrible bets???? But, each to his own.

I'll stick to my slow steady progress in real estate. My program taken me a lot more than 8 years. I admit that I've had a lot of set-backs, trials, and tribulations over the years. But, I'm still here stumbling up the path toward my goals. I gamble everyday with my real money. Sometimes I lose, and most of the time these days I win. I spend time every day upping my odds on my deals. I reject out of hand any deal where the odds are against me.
 

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I didn't watch the video, but I'm aware of FIRE.

basics-arrows.png

Honestly, I believe FIRE should be the default approach for anyone with a Slowlane job—Max out contributions to a Roth 401k and Roth IRA annually via an index fund at the very least.

Then with spare time, work towards the Fastlane. Live with meager living expenses to do that.

That's my plan for now as a recent graduate. Graduating especially into this political, economic, and social climate is a challenge but add future Fastlane and family aspirations. Wow, it's time to work long, hard, and smart!
 

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It's not a bad plan - it just has higher levels of risk than most people on here would want.

It is very close to the line on a lot of things:
- you got to hope no major unplanned expenses or lifestyle changes come up
- you got to rely on the markets and some rate of return
- you got to heavily budget and save and keep an eye on all cash flow

But again it is a plan that can work for some people and suits their personal tastes.

I think it's kinda a watered down Fastlane for people who don't want to (or can't) run a profitable business long term. I would imagine some like it while others didn't really see a better way to retire early and get out of the system.
 

WJK

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I didn't watch the video, but I'm aware of FIRE.

View attachment 39164

Honestly, I believe FIRE should be the default approach for anyone with a Slowlane job—Max out contributions to a Roth 401k and Roth IRA annually via an index fund at the very least.

Then with spare time, work towards the Fastlane. Live with meager living expenses to do that.

That's my plan for now as a recent graduate. Graduating especially into this political, economic, and social climate is a challenge but add future Fastlane and family aspirations. Wow, it's time to work long, hard, and smart!
It also works for a business owner. You can work at the "earn more" issue and then use that cash flow to push you along. You can NEVER overcome being out of control of your spending -- no matter how much $ you make. Your expenses don't have to "meager", but they must be controlled.
 

WJK

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It's not a bad plan - it just has higher levels of risk than most people on here would want.

It is very close to the line on a lot of things:
- you got to hope no major unplanned expenses or lifestyle changes come up
- you got to rely on the markets and some rate of return
- you got to heavily budget and save and keep an eye on all cash flow

But again it is a plan that can work for some people and suits their personal tastes.

I think it's kinda a watered down Fastlane for people who don't want to (or can't) run a profitable business long term. I would imagine some like it while others didn't really see a better way to retire early and get out of the system.
I see it as more inclusive than you've stated because:
The investments don't have to be in the stock market.
I too keep an eye on all cash flows -- in and out. It's prudent to budget.
No matter what plan you work, you must have an emergency plan that accounts for unplanned expenses and lifestyle changes. That includes a savings account to cover those events.

I don't see it as "watered down". To me, it's one step in the process. You must first become financially independent before you can become rich.
Also FIRE usually stands for financial independence through real estate. Just thought I'd mention that...
 

Fox

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I see it as more inclusive than you've stated because:
The investments don't have to be in the stock market.
I too keep an eye on all cash flows -- in and out. It's prudent to budget.
No matter what plan you work, you must have an emergency plan that accounts for unplanned expenses and lifestyle changes. That includes a savings account to cover those events.

I don't see it as "watered down". To me, it's one step in the process. You must first become financially independent before you can become rich.
Also FIRE usually stands for financial independence through real estate. Just thought I'd mention that...

Thanks for giving me a better perspective there.

Any links, books or resources you recommend on it to get properly up to speed?

Ill admit what I have seen so far has not made it very appealing but maybe I was looking at only one perspective.
 

Omsubedi

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Well the elephant in the room is her and her husband are pulling in around 200K to even play at these numbers. But combined with a low cost of living country I can how it's possible. I know the principals of why FIRE isnt wise. But I'd like to learn exactly why this isn't fastlane/a smart path. So looking forward to any input.
Hi Prince33, there are few issues with that:
1. The larger initial capital they are starting with. Not everyone has that amount of capital.
2. The rate of return they are displaying.
It doesn't specify how an average Joe can get those return, or even they will get that return.
3. None of the videos ever features a real person or displays a real person's brokerage account and their net worth page. Have you seen any? I haven't yet. If you've I'd love to watch. Or any followup. There are always plenty of videos like those each year. Please go back 8 to 10 years, and there will be similar videos back then. Are there any new videos updated by them showing how the strategy they show have changed their life? Are those people so busy enjoying their retirement at 40, they didn't have time to post an updated video of their retired life ?

With the 401k approach, as MJ repeatedly mentions, there should be millions of 401k millionares i.e. baby boomers by this time if what the wall street and people like those in the videos showing were to be true. How many are there ? In fact the median net worth of majority of people approaching 65 is around or below 200k, and half of them are below poverty. Where did all the promised money vaporized?
Please alway view these video critically.
 

Prince33

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It's not a bad plan - it just has higher levels of risk than most people on here would want.

It is very close to the line on a lot of things:
- you got to hope no major unplanned expenses or lifestyle changes come up
- you got to rely on the markets and some rate of return
- you got to heavily budget and save and keep an eye on all cash flow

But again it is a plan that can work for some people and suits their personal tastes.

I think it's kinda a watered down Fastlane for people who don't want to (or can't) run a profitable business long term. I would imagine some like it while others didn't really see a better way to retire early and get out of the system.
As MJ said in the book(s) FIRE is in the right neighbourhood but at the wrong house. I'd definitely say it's like a fastlane-lite. Perhaps even a "mid-lane" faster than slow lane but surely slower than the fastlane. Although I'd reiterate that this requires a lot of capital from the jump. To make the simile deeper I'd say this path is like those passes you can purchase in some major cities. In Atlanta they have the "peach pass" where you can bypass most the traffic in the normal lanes. So you move faster than 80% of the rest on the road but you're still limited by the others in that lane as well as the obvious speed limit.

FIRE + a large sum of capital could possibly be a level inbetween slow and fast. But still has lots of risks and you truly aren't in control. So while it's similar to fastlane principals it is very different.
I see it as more inclusive than you've stated because:
The investments don't have to be in the stock market.
I too keep an eye on all cash flows -- in and out. It's prudent to budget.
No matter what plan you work, you must have an emergency plan that accounts for unplanned expenses and lifestyle changes. That includes a savings account to cover those events.

I don't see it as "watered down". To me, it's one step in the process. You must first become financially independent before you can become rich.
Also FIRE usually stands for financial independence through real estate. Just thought I'd mention that...
Well the principal of FIRE from what I know is put money into something that can multiply your money over time. Aggressively. In example on this thread on the FATFire subreddit someone went from 250K to 2.5M in one year. The people on this sub and WallStreetBets call these people 'yoloers'. Basically they take a shit load of money and just gamble. As you can see in the comments on that thread, people aren't happy about it. And you can see several others who do this get a similar reaction.

Well I'll tell you the secret now. did the research on there. 80% of the people on that sub are striving to FATFire over yeeeears of work and saving. And the 20% that did achieve it are like 35-40+. If not 50s. And when they do it's pretty much this story.

Went to school + grad(sometimes) = 4-6~ years
Got a STEM, FAANG and/or Big Finance job
Worked there for years and "budget" = 10-15 years~
Invested in stocks/assets
Retire "early" in their 30s/40s.
Very rarely 20s, and when they do they even admit it was luck and due to their background, and he made 8 figures, didnt retire and again everyone in the comments pretty much say it doesnt count.
So about a 14-21 year process.

More often than not they have a spouse too so really it's two incomes.

So when they see some 20 something earn millions in one year just because they got 'lucky' it pisses them off. Thus they say "OH YOU JUST YOLOED THAT DOESNT COUNT". How dare they be able to not have to work in their 20s?!

This guy turned 37K into 1.75M with crypto
Same story "oh you just got lucky with crypto!" but if you look at his history he has been betting on different cryptos and stocks over and over.

When in reality these young guys didnt get lucky they simply risked huge sums of money over and over and over until something popped. Wether that's a viable solution is another discussion entirely. But making 1.75-5Million risking large sums of capital; and it taking you 5-10 years to do so is no different in my eyes than building something that takes 10 years to make that or doing the 'safe' FIRE route.

So to the original point I'd say it is watered down in the sense that most likely it will take you much much longer to get fastlane that way because you're taking the safe route. Which often is longer. That's life 101. Travel the road most know and the rewards arent as big as everyone else takes the same road.(401K, FIRE, stocks) Risk taking the state roads and you could be stranded, but you might also discover you can get there in half the time. (Productocracy, fastlane, Wallstreetbets(imo)) As all those require failure after failure after failure to succeed. In the new book MJ said the average person on here has 8 businesses before the one they start takes them fastlane. Trump, Tim Ferris, many other successful businessmen also talk about having to file for bankruptcy/reset several times.

Risk and Reward are two sides on the same scale in life.

Moral of the story. Everyone on this forum know what can be done in 14-21 years.
That's why it's watered down.
Hi Prince33, there are few issues with that:
1. The larger initial capital they are starting with. Not everyone has that amount of capital.
2. The rate of return they are displaying.
It doesn't specify how an average Joe can get those return, or even they will get that return.
3. None of the videos ever features a real person or displays a real person's brokerage account and their net worth page. Have you seen any? I haven't yet. If you've I'd love to watch. Or any followup. There are always plenty of videos like those each year. Please go back 8 to 10 years, and there will be similar videos back then. Are there any new videos updated by them showing how the strategy they show have changed their life? Are those people so busy enjoying their retirement at 40, they didn't have time to post an updated video of their retired life ?

With the 401k approach, as MJ repeatedly mentions, there should be millions of 401k millionares i.e. baby boomers by this time if what the wall street and people like those in the videos showing were to be true. How many are there ? In fact the median net worth of majority of people approaching 65 is around or below 200k, and half of them are below poverty. Where did all the promised money vaporized?
Please alway view these video critically.

Completely agree with all those points. I've never seen someone wit ha report after the 8-10 years on youtube. I have on reddit(above) but it often takes much longer than just 8 years even between two people with high salary jobs.
 

WJK

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As MJ said in the book(s) FIRE is in the right neighbourhood but at the wrong house. I'd definitely say it's like a fastlane-lite. Perhaps even a "mid-lane" faster than slow lane but surely slower than the fastlane. Although I'd reiterate that this requires a lot of capital from the jump. To make the simile deeper I'd say this path is like those passes you can purchase in some major cities. In Atlanta they have the "peach pass" where you can bypass most the traffic in the normal lanes. So you move faster than 80% of the rest on the road but you're still limited by the others in that lane as well as the obvious speed limit.

FIRE + a large sum of capital could possibly be a level inbetween slow and fast. But still has lots of risks and you truly aren't in control. So while it's similar to fastlane principals it is very different.

Well the principal of FIRE from what I know is put money into something that can multiply your money over time. Aggressively. In example on this thread on the FATFire subreddit someone went from 250K to 2.5M in one year. The people on this sub and WallStreetBets call these people 'yoloers'. Basically they take a shit load of money and just gamble. As you can see in the comments on that thread, people aren't happy about it. And you can see several others who do this get a similar reaction.

Well I'll tell you the secret now. did the research on there. 80% of the people on that sub are striving to FATFire over yeeeears of work and saving. And the 20% that did achieve it are like 35-40+. If not 50s. And when they do it's pretty much this story.

Went to school + grad(sometimes) = 4-6~ years
Got a STEM, FAANG and/or Big Finance job
Worked there for years and "budget" = 10-15 years~
Invested in stocks/assets
Retire "early" in their 30s/40s.
Very rarely 20s, and when they do they even admit it was luck and due to their background, and he made 8 figures, didnt retire and again everyone in the comments pretty much say it doesnt count.
So about a 14-21 year process.

More often than not they have a spouse too so really it's two incomes.

So when they see some 20 something earn millions in one year just because they got 'lucky' it pisses them off. Thus they say "OH YOU JUST YOLOED THAT DOESNT COUNT". How dare they be able to not have to work in their 20s?!

This guy turned 37K into 1.75M with crypto
Same story "oh you just got lucky with crypto!" but if you look at his history he has been betting on different cryptos and stocks over and over.

When in reality these young guys didnt get lucky they simply risked huge sums of money over and over and over until something popped. Wether that's a viable solution is another discussion entirely. But making 1.75-5Million risking large sums of capital; and it taking you 5-10 years to do so is no different in my eyes than building something that takes 10 years to make that or doing the 'safe' FIRE route.

So to the original point I'd say it is watered down in the sense that most likely it will take you much much longer to get fastlane that way because you're taking the safe route. Which often is longer. That's life 101. Travel the road most know and the rewards arent as big as everyone else takes the same road.(401K, FIRE, stocks) Risk taking the state roads and you could be stranded, but you might also discover you can get there in half the time. (Productocracy, fastlane, Wallstreetbets(imo)) As all those require failure after failure after failure to succeed. In the new book MJ said the average person on here has 8 businesses before the one they start takes them fastlane. Trump, Tim Ferris, many other successful businessmen also talk about having to file for bankruptcy/reset several times.

Risk and Reward are two sides on the same scale in life.

Moral of the story. Everyone on this forum know what can be done in 14-21 years.
That's why it's watered down.


Completely agree with all those points. I've never seen someone wit ha report after the 8-10 years on youtube. I have on reddit(above) but it often takes much longer than just 8 years even between two people with high salary jobs.
Besides me (& MJ), has anyone in this thread actually gone out and done it successfully? Talk. talk, talk... You can plan and scheme all you want. You can figure it all out on paper. What happens when you get off your keester and go out to try it for yourself? What if it takes you 20 or 30 years? What if you make your fortune and then lose it -- and then must start over again. What if you flat fail... a few times? What if, what if, what if...

I took a lot more time to build my little nest egg than you guys are talking about here. Does that negate my efforts and achievements? When I think of all of my other accomplishments over those years, I forgive myself for the time my journey took. You might think about trying it yourself before you make up your mind about how it should go.
 

marcuslim

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As MJ said in the book(s) FIRE is in the right neighbourhood but at the wrong house. I'd definitely say it's like a fastlane-lite. Perhaps even a "mid-lane" faster than slow lane but surely slower than the fastlane. Although I'd reiterate that this requires a lot of capital from the jump. To make the simile deeper I'd say this path is like those passes you can purchase in some major cities. In Atlanta they have the "peach pass" where you can bypass most the traffic in the normal lanes. So you move faster than 80% of the rest on the road but you're still limited by the others in that lane as well as the obvious speed limit.

FIRE + a large sum of capital could possibly be a level inbetween slow and fast. But still has lots of risks and you truly aren't in control. So while it's similar to fastlane principals it is very different.

Well the principal of FIRE from what I know is put money into something that can multiply your money over time. Aggressively. In example on this thread on the FATFire subreddit someone went from 250K to 2.5M in one year. The people on this sub and WallStreetBets call these people 'yoloers'. Basically they take a shit load of money and just gamble. As you can see in the comments on that thread, people aren't happy about it. And you can see several others who do this get a similar reaction.

Well I'll tell you the secret now. did the research on there. 80% of the people on that sub are striving to FATFire over yeeeears of work and saving. And the 20% that did achieve it are like 35-40+. If not 50s. And when they do it's pretty much this story.

Went to school + grad(sometimes) = 4-6~ years
Got a STEM, FAANG and/or Big Finance job
Worked there for years and "budget" = 10-15 years~
Invested in stocks/assets
Retire "early" in their 30s/40s.
Very rarely 20s, and when they do they even admit it was luck and due to their background, and he made 8 figures, didnt retire and again everyone in the comments pretty much say it doesnt count.
So about a 14-21 year process.

More often than not they have a spouse too so really it's two incomes.

So when they see some 20 something earn millions in one year just because they got 'lucky' it pisses them off. Thus they say "OH YOU JUST YOLOED THAT DOESNT COUNT". How dare they be able to not have to work in their 20s?!

This guy turned 37K into 1.75M with crypto
Same story "oh you just got lucky with crypto!" but if you look at his history he has been betting on different cryptos and stocks over and over.

When in reality these young guys didnt get lucky they simply risked huge sums of money over and over and over until something popped. Wether that's a viable solution is another discussion entirely. But making 1.75-5Million risking large sums of capital; and it taking you 5-10 years to do so is no different in my eyes than building something that takes 10 years to make that or doing the 'safe' FIRE route.

So to the original point I'd say it is watered down in the sense that most likely it will take you much much longer to get fastlane that way because you're taking the safe route. Which often is longer. That's life 101. Travel the road most know and the rewards arent as big as everyone else takes the same road.(401K, FIRE, stocks) Risk taking the state roads and you could be stranded, but you might also discover you can get there in half the time. (Productocracy, fastlane, Wallstreetbets(imo)) As all those require failure after failure after failure to succeed. In the new book MJ said the average person on here has 8 businesses before the one they start takes them fastlane. Trump, Tim Ferris, many other successful businessmen also talk about having to file for bankruptcy/reset several times.

Risk and Reward are two sides on the same scale in life.

Moral of the story. Everyone on this forum know what can be done in 14-21 years.
That's why it's watered down.


Completely agree with all those points. I've never seen someone wit ha report after the 8-10 years on youtube. I have on reddit(above) but it often takes much longer than just 8 years even between two people with high salary jobs.
Thanks for the insight. I suppose not everyone is cut out for business, having to fail multiple times before hitting the jackbox. In that case the slower road of 401K, FIRE etc is still better than nothing!
 

WJK

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Thanks for the insight. I suppose not everyone is cut out for business, having to fail multiple times before hitting the jackbox. In that case the slower road of 401K, FIRE etc is still better than nothing!
"better than nothing!"????? "having to fail multiple times before hitting the jackbox." (sic) ??????

I read what you said and I asked myself -- how has your journey developed... changed you... fulfilled you... directed you and your thinking...

And then I realized. I'm NOT sure that you know that the odds are stacked against you. It's like your odds of becoming a top earning professional athlete or a world famous actor. It's rare that people become notably successful -- especially in their 20s or 30s. I am NOT saying you can't do it. I am saying that you would be a total stand-out compared to almost everyone around you. Even if you did it slower over your lifetime, you'd still be one of the few who break out of the pack. Think about it. What is the percentage of people who become financially independent -- let alone become rich? Knowing that, should you aspire to climb that hill? Sure. Why not.

There is one common element in that journey. Everyone standing on the top of the heap -- really, really, and I mean really -- wants to be there with every fiber in their being. The failures and setbacks along the way are viewed as necessary steppingstones. The sweat and struggles are just the price of the ticket to try. It takes a level of grit that is very rare in the human experience. I am saying to give the journey, and its few notable stars, a sense of deserved gravity and respect!
 

Johnny boy

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This shit is just slowlane with sprinkles

Build a business, use the idea of specialized units, follow CENTS, drive a lambo in your late 20's.

If anyone around me uses the words '401k' non-ironically when talking about their financial plans, more often than not they are a time waster.
 

WJK

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This shit is just slowlane with sprinkles

Build a business, use the idea of specialized units, follow CENTS, drive a lambo in your late 20's.

If anyone around me uses the words '401k' non-ironically when talking about their financial plans, more often than not they are a time waster.
I agree. 401Ks are a way for money managers to make their yearly 1%. I've been told by professional money managers to sell off my real estate and buy stock -- and they'll be happy to manage it for me. Uh? I bet they would...
 

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Thanks for the insight. I suppose not everyone is cut out for business, having to fail multiple times before hitting the jackbox. In that case the slower road of 401K, FIRE etc is still better than nothing!

The screams of a lottery mindset, as if business is pure luck. Sure some luck is involved, but I'll take 2 shots at calling a coin flip instead of one, or none. When you manipulate variables in the game and stick to mathematically based principles, it becomes mostly skill and some luck, instead of mostly luck and some skill.

So yes, I think FIRE is a great starting point for a FASTLANE. Yes, better than nothing. It is a great practice in discipline, delayed gratification and financial management. As a way to live? Hell no. Because FIRE is not DELAYED gratification -- it is NO gratification and a lot of mental gymnastics to justify the asceticism.
 

WJK

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As a way to live? Hell no. Because FIRE is not DELAYED gratification -- it is NO gratification and a lot of mental gymnastics to justify the asceticism.
MJ, are we talking about the same thing? I don't think of it as a situation of "asceticism". I find that there are a lot of perks to being financially independent -- the FI in FIRE. Yes, real estate (the RE in FIRE) is at times a pain since it must be regularly tended. But, it's hell of a lot better than having a Slowlane job with a long commute -- even one with a high salary. Or trying to retire on Social Security checks. Yes, the FIRE cash flow is usually more limited than the cash flow from a multi-million dollar Fastlane business. You're right about that.

I put it all in perspective. If I had been born just a few years earlier, I would have had 5+ kids to tend. If I was a working mother, I would have had a job rather than profession. I could have been a clerk, a secretary, a cashier, a hair dresser, or maybe even a teacher or a nurse -- if I had really stepped out. Almost all the other professions were closed to women. I could NOT have had my own credit file or qualified for a loan -- women's salaries weren't considered at that time. So, being a real estate investor was a closed possibility for me when I first became an adult. Before the Fair Credit Act (became law in 1974), birth control pills, and the Women's movement, my entire odds of moving up the financial ladder rested on who I married and how well he did in life. Since I came from a low income, rural area, that wouldn't have worked very well at all for me.

All that has changed during my lifetime. And I'm VERY grateful for my real estate career. I've lived a long life, with many ups and downs. Even with all of that said, I think I'll stick to my tried-and-true real estate investing. I know that I LOVE to collect my rents and my streams of passive income.
 

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118
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WScd62Xjh6I


Well the elephant in the room is her and her husband are pulling in around 200K to even play at these numbers. But combined with a low cost of living country I can how it's possible. I know the principals of why FIRE isnt wise. But I'd like to learn exactly why this isn't fastlane/a smart path. So looking forward to any input.
That video isn’t really FIRE… they’re basically maxing out their 401k and letting SPY do it’s thing. So yeah, no focus on increasing their income, dependent on Wall Street, and no focus on creating a business that they can then sell is why it’s not a smart path. They do have good points about performing geo arbitrage and moving to Africa though. But like they said, they will probably change that plan in the future once they realize their pitfalls (namely no external locus of control and depending too much on stock market returns)
 

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