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What are the keys for right decisions?

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Daemonyos

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I'm bad at examples, but the question should be clear I think.
How do you choose between multiple life-changing paths?

Like raising a child or not, going to college or not, becoming an entrepeneur, choosing the right friends...
Or if you would use a loan to fund a project?
Just tricking your brain to truly accept that you are doing the right thing based on rational thought and empirical data.

We're playing mind games with ourselves - cognitive biases and dissonance being a part of that - so are there any systems you use for the art of deciding?

What variables do you look at?
Are there any others than pros and cons?
 

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spElle

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Like raising a child or not, going to college or not, becoming an entrepeneur, choosing the right friends...
Or if you would use a loan to fund a project?
Just tricking your brain to truly accept that you are doing the right thing based on rational thought and empirical data.
I don't look at variables, I just look at what I want generally.. I'm not playing mind games with myself, I'm just getting what I want. I'm not going to raise a child or go to college because my time is valuable and I haven't reached my business goals yet. You're not tricking your brain into accepting that it's the right thing, if you just do the thing that feels the most correct
 

Kid

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There is only one variable:
Past.
 

TonyStark

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Lol you think we’re actually making decisions here?

Making choices are for the undecided.

When you’re doing everything right in life, the right path presents itself.

If it doesn’t, then you haven’t dug deep enough into the issue.

Get to work.
 

TheGreek

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Social programming, past experiences, other people's opinions, and your own desires are some of the factors that affect your decisions. Usually, people avoid the most painful decision. In some cases, they go for their desires.

People predict the possible outcomes from their decisions based on previous experiences, beliefs, and other people's examples.

For example, when a person decides to get married or not, some of the following things with affect this decision:

The marriage of his/her parents, the marriages of friends and other relatives, expectations from marriage based on his/her beliefs, peer pressure (are their friends married?), community pressure (in some countries they get married in younger ages than others), religion, culture, parent pressure, fear of losing a partner, fear of being alone in life, financial changes after getting married, etc.

Most people are afraid to get criticized or rejected if they don't do what society and other people expect from them to do. This is a huge factor for every decision of an average person.

The problem is that they don't consider all these things consciously. This is why they make wrong decisions all the time. Their fears and insecurities decide for them.

People think that they decide to get married based on their love for the other person. The truth is that they have made the decision to get married a long time ago and just look for the right person. Then, they find another average person with similar beliefs and problems to get married.

This is only an example. It applies almost everywhere.
 

SchenkFinancial

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When it comes to good life decisions, it isn't that you have to be so good at doing things that are difficult, it's more about avoiding things that are difficult. Find things that are easy.

When Charlie Munger bought the Daily Journal Corporation, that was easy. What they are doing now in this software business is difficult, but due to the accident of these good associations and the fact that these old colleagues have lived so long, they're doing pretty well in the new business. It has potential.

How many declining newspapers have hundreds of millions of marketable securities lying around and a new business with some promise? They're like the last of the Mohicans.

Now there is a part of life which is about scrambling out of your mistakes without them costing too much. Warren and Charlie have done some of that too. If you look at Berkshire Hathaway, think of its founding businesses. A doomed department store, doomed New England textile company, and a doomed trading stamp company.

Out of that came Berkshire Hathaway. Now they handled those bad cards pretty well when they bought into them very cheaply, but of course the success came from changing their ways and getting into the better businesses.
 

socaldude

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For most people their life is full of bad decisions. Tremendous PAIN is usually what inspires people to self reflect on their thinking. Most people don’t self reflect for fun or for kicks. They just go through the motions of life

So there has to be something here. Self reflection HAS to be a key to decision making theory. Only without having pain as the inspiration for it. Think about it, there is no awareness, reflection or understanding for what seemed like a good idea at the time. Now you look back and it’s a big mistake.

A solid decision theory model HAS to have this key component. Your mind has to be able to invert itself and “check” itself like secondary failure check.

That why when you fly on a plane. The plane gets inspected then inspected again. It’s kinda of like six sigma philosophy of manufacturing.

But to me this is something so complex and difficult that very little progress gets made in these areas.
 

Ismails

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I think study and apply this: Opportunity cost
 

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