We're living in strange times. AI is on the rise, hundreds of thousands of truckers are going to lose their jobs to self-driving trucks in coming years, we have a presidential candidate who's proposing a Universal Basic Income.
Milton Friedman, a nobel prize wining economists who was considered one of the most influential economists of all time proposed a Universal Basic Income back in 1962. Milton Friedman was far from a socialist or even liberal. He was one of the top advisors for the Reagan Administration and was a major advocate for 'hands off' government. But despite all that, he was still a strong advocate for a UBI.
You can hear some of Friedman's thought-provoking arguments here:
But back to AI, many studies (World Economic Forum, ScienceAlert, Bank of England) predicts of millions or 10's of millions of job losses, and while I think it will be one of the biggest technological boons we've ever seen, I still think we have to be careful of the short term effects.
www.technologyreview.com
Again, to be clear, I think AI is going to be the biggest development the world has ever seen. I think in general it will drastically improve our quality of life on an unprecedented level. But I also think we have to make a smart transition for those who are displaced. During the start of the industrial revolution, mass riots broke out by those who were displaced by automation.
Of course the Industrial Revolution worked out great in the long run as we see here:
And AI will likely be a similar boon, but I think it's important to pay attention to the unskilled workers who may be hurt by this.
Do you think that a Universal Basic Income might be a good solution? Or do you think it's pure socialism. Open to discussion.
Milton Friedman, a nobel prize wining economists who was considered one of the most influential economists of all time proposed a Universal Basic Income back in 1962. Milton Friedman was far from a socialist or even liberal. He was one of the top advisors for the Reagan Administration and was a major advocate for 'hands off' government. But despite all that, he was still a strong advocate for a UBI.
You can hear some of Friedman's thought-provoking arguments here:
But back to AI, many studies (World Economic Forum, ScienceAlert, Bank of England) predicts of millions or 10's of millions of job losses, and while I think it will be one of the biggest technological boons we've ever seen, I still think we have to be careful of the short term effects.
Every study we could find on what automation will do to jobs, in one chart
There are about as many opinions as there are experts.
| When | Where | Jobs Lost | Jobs Created | Predictor |
| 2016 | worldwide | 900,000 to 1,500,000 | Metra Martech | |
| 2018 | US jobs | 13,852,530* | 3,078,340* | Forrester |
| 2020 | worldwide | 1,000,000-2,000,000 | Metra Martech | |
| 2020 | worldwide | 1,800,000 | 2,300,000 | Gartner |
| 2020 | sampling of 15 countries | 7,100,000 | 2,000,000 | World Economic Forum (WEF) |
| 2021 | worldwide | 1,900,000-3,500,000 | The International Federation of Robotics | |
| 2021 | US jobs | 9,108,900* | Forrester | |
| 2022 | worldwide | ######## | Thomas Frey | |
| 2025 | US jobs | 24,186,240* | 13,604,760* | Forrester |
| 2025 | US jobs | 3,400,000 | ScienceAlert | |
| 2027 | US jobs | ######## | ######## | Forrester |
| 2030 | worldwide | ######## | Thomas Frey | |
| 2030 | worldwide | 400,000,000-800,000,000 | 555,000,000-890,000,000 | McKinsey |
| 2030 | US jobs | 58,164,320* | PWC | |
| 2035 | US jobs | ######## | Bank of England | |
| 2035 | UK jobs | ######## | Bank of England | |
| No Date | US jobs | 13,594,320* | OECD | |
| No Date | UK jobs | ######## | IPPR |
Again, to be clear, I think AI is going to be the biggest development the world has ever seen. I think in general it will drastically improve our quality of life on an unprecedented level. But I also think we have to make a smart transition for those who are displaced. During the start of the industrial revolution, mass riots broke out by those who were displaced by automation.
Of course the Industrial Revolution worked out great in the long run as we see here:
And AI will likely be a similar boon, but I think it's important to pay attention to the unskilled workers who may be hurt by this.
Do you think that a Universal Basic Income might be a good solution? Or do you think it's pure socialism. Open to discussion.
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