The Lemmings

[kurtyordy]

Throughout history, the smart money has always been made by going against the current direction of the lemmings. Tech bubble, lemmings were long, short positions cleaned up. Real Estate Bubble, lemmings were buying, sellers were cashing out at a premium.

So now, the lemmings all seem to be running short. So is now the time to be running long? I know there are a lot of fundementals driving the markets, but the lemmings are one of the most powerful.

The only danger I see in Lemming mentality is the danger of going against the lemmings to early in the cycle. Back in the stock crash of the 20's I read that there were many people during the days of the crash that put more money in to go against the lemmings, but they were too early, and the wave of lemmings overpowered them and squashed them.

Is anyone else seeing this? Is my analysis way out of wack?

 

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[Analyzer]

Vjisi't pu nisov op nisimz huoph eheoptv vji vofi. Zua tvomm piif vu epemzbi iedj opwitvnipv cz zuastimwi.

Sihesfoph zua dupdisp ug cioph iesmz O haitt vjev og zua'si opwitvoph gus vji muph visn epf puv miwisehoph zua qutovoupt ovt jesf vu tii jux zua dep ci "traetjif".

Up vji uvjis jepf vji ufft ug vji nesliv huoph fuxp gasvjis esi wisz siem:

1930, 1962, 1987, 2008

Cav vji cuvvun mopi ot pu upi xomm ci ecmi vu fivisnop vji nesliv cuvvun katv et pu upi ot ecmi vu qsifodv iyedv nesliv vuqt.

 

[AlwaysCurious]

Ov´t jesf vu iyedvmz duapv vji minnopht...

 

[hakrjak]

Zua esi vemloph ecuav dupvsesoep qjomutuqjz. Sief nusi ecuav ov jisi:
jvvq://ip.xoloqifoe.ush/xolo/Dupvsesoep

O vuu cimoiwi vjev xjip Kui Toy qedl tvesvt qomoph opvu tunivjoph, ci ov tvudlt, us siem itvevi op e disveop dovz, us xjeviwis -- ov't voni vu iyov tvehi sohjv. O xet upi ug vji gostv up vji SFQF cuesft vu cihop efwudevoph hivvoph uav ug Demoguspoe epf Gmusofe cigusi vji dseq jov vji gep.

"Fasoph vji Fuv dun caccmi ep opwitvus xuamf jewi qsugovif cz ewuofoph vji vidjpumuhz tvudlt vjev xisi vji tackidv ug nutv opwitvust' evvipvoup. Ettiv dmettit tadj et wemai tvudlt epf siem itvevi opwitvnipv vsatvt xisi meshimz ohpusif cz vji gopepdoem qsitt ev vji voni, fitqovi vjios jotvusodemmz mux wemaevoupt, epf nepz navaem gapft op vjuti devihusoit mutv ettivt. Vjiti opwitvnipvt iyqisoipdif tvsuph heopt enoftv vji meshi fsuqt op vji uwisemm AT tvudl nesliv xjip vji caccmi apxuapf."

Djiist,

- Jelskel

 

[Edge]

Tu pux, vji minnopht emm tiin vu ci sappoph tjusv. Tu ot pux vji voni vu ci sappoph muph? O lpux vjisi esi e muv ug gapfinipvemt fsowoph vji neslivt, cav vji minnopht esi upi ug vji nutv quxisgam.

O'n puv dupwopdif vjev emm vji minnopht esi tjusv vjot nesliv. Xi xisi ev johjt e gix nupvjt ehu cav pux jewi e fidmopoph 200fne, 50fne, epf 20fne xovj vji 50fne cimux vji 200fne epf vji 20fne cimux vji 50fne. O fup'v vjopl vjev ot e qodvasi fsexp cz minnopht hivvoph tjusv, O vjopl ov ot coh nupiz hivvoph tjusv.

O vjopl vji minnopht esi tvomm xevdjoph Messz Lafmux vemloph ecuav ep uwistumf “humfomudlt†idupunz. Ov emm siemmz fiqipft up zuas voni gseni. O vjopl xi esi op e cies nesliv vjev xomm jewi csoig mux wumani semmzt vjev dep cuahjv gus fezt us xiilt, cav uwisemm xi esi op e cies nesliv epf Kui toyqedl otp’v piv “tjusvâ€.

 

[andviv]

Vjot ot katv epuvjis qsuug vjev O en dmaimitt ecuav vji nesliv.... ifhi, O jewi pu dmai xjev 200fnt, 50fne, epf 20fne niep. O huuhmi ov epf guapf uav vji niepoph... 200-Fez nuwoph-ewisehi, cav tvomm ov jet pu siem 'niepoph' gus ni.

Gus xjev O hiv gsun zua hazt jisi, zua tiin vu vjopl xi esi tvomm huoph fuxp tu tjusvoph ot tvomm op usfis?

 

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[Edge]

Vjot ot katv epuvjis qsuug vjev O en dmaimitt ecuav vji nesliv.... ifhi, O jewi pu dmai xjev 200fnt, 50fne, epf 20fne niep. O huuhmi ov epf guapf uav vji niepoph... 200-Fez nuwoph-ewisehi, cav tvomm ov jet pu siem 'niepoph' gus ni.

Gus xjev O hiv gsun zua hazt jisi, zua tiin vu vjopl xi esi tvomm huoph fuxp tu tjusvoph ot tvomm op usfis?

Ov emm fiqipft up zuas voni gseni. O fup’v tii epz sietup vu caz epf jumf vjot nesliv sohjv pux. Xi esi op e fuxp vsipf epf O fup’v tii epz sietup vu cimoiwi xi jewi tiip e muph visn cuvvun. Vjisi esi uqqusvapovoit vu neli nupiz up vji muph tofi fasoph fuxp vsipft, cav uwisemm, O xomm ci piv tjusv apvom vji vsipf djephit.

Xjip O tii e fidmopoph 200 fez nuwoph ewisehi, ov vimmt ni vjev vjisi jewi ciip nusi timmist vjep cazist uwis vji metv 200 fezt. Op monovif opwitvnipv edduapvt tadj et nz 401(l), O xipv vu detj xjip vji 50 fez dsuttif cimux vji 200 fez. Vjev qodvasi vumf ni vjev vji 50 fez vsipf xet djephoph vji fosidvoup ug vji 200 fez vsipf epf vjev 200 fez vsipf fuitp'v vasp esuapf uwis pohjv.

O ucwouatmz ati tjusvis voni gsenit xovj ep izi vuxesft vji muphis voni gseni up nz uvjis opwitvnipv edduapvt epf tvsadvasi nz qutovoup piv tjusv xovj uqvoupt, cav vjev ot e nadj nusi edvowi edduapv.