Tesla Model 3: Anyone else getting one?

[nradam123]

But all of you should agree that Elon is making the world quite an exciting place.

He said he is going to bring down the cost of a mission to mars with hundreds of people in it to much less than a million dollars. That too before 2025 or something. Even if he cannot pull that off, its exciting to know that something like that is a possibility.

At my level of business I watch people like him for inspiration and then get back into building my own little empire.

 

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[nradam123]

The only reason Musk is doing his "partial rollout" is that he needs cheap testers, he cannot afford them, he cannot afford to go through the normal development and testing cycle, and he is desperately trying to outrun his competitors with deeper pockets.

When he says something like, "used correctly" it infuriates me because:
1) The purpose of testing is to "break" the device under test to find out its weaknesses and correct it in the next revision;

You clearly have zero idea about automotive testing. Tesla conducts rigorous testing of all components and assembly in software level, test rigs and also in-field. Yes, those tests are all done in extreme conditions to break the system. You simply cannot clock full lifecycle of any machine in testing phase, all testing is done in extreme conditions. This is true for BMW, JCB or any other manufacturing company.

What Tesla is doing is that they are improving the learning algorithm. And they need a ton of real data for that, not some test cycles in a laboratory or in a few test cars in-field.

 

[AgainstAllOdds]

This sounds great on paper. The reality is somewhat different:

Who gets the ticket when someone switches off the autopilot and drives your car 40MPH over the speed limit? You do.

Who gets the ticket when they go through EZ pass without one? You do.

Who gets the insurance hike and gets sued when they crash the car? You do.

Who gets their name on the title of a $40,000 car that strangers sit in all day, leaving food wrapers, etc. on the floor and steeling change out of the glove box? You do.

I own several cars in a region where public transit is cheap and abundant and runs all day and night because I don't like the idea of sharing a vehicle with a geeking crackhead or sitting in a seat that someone sharted in earlier that morning. There might be a business opportunity here in the future for someone, but I'm going to pass on doing this with any car I have for personal use.

I agree. But I also think all those issues will be ironed out.

Take for example AirBNB. They have $1,000,000 of insurance coverage for each landlord. Most of the risk of having someone stay at your home is eliminated.

We even have a thread about using AirBNB to live rent free here: https://thefastlaneforum.com/community/threads/live-rent-free-in-multiple-countries.59964/.

My opinion: lower-end cars will eventually get to the point where you can drive payment-free.

 

[AgainstAllOdds]

Could you imagine what was said about the original car companies?
No way these will replace horses. What if one runs into my house?

You can live your life in fear or go out and try to change the world.
The man is an innovator. We all should aspire to make grand plans and chase them to the best of our ability.

This.

And I don't find the idea of pushing self-driving cars as "sociopath level crazy". The cars have already driven a few million miles. That's a significant enough sample size to determine their safety.

Yeah, someone will occasionally die, but the number of people that die will be a fraction of that of human-drivers. Take this quote for example: "National Highway Traffic Safety Administration chief Mark Rosekind said at a conference Wednesday the agency is bullish on the potential of autonomous driving technology to reduce the 94 percent of car crashes attributed to human error." (http://www.nbcnews.com/tech/tech-ne...ty-regulator-stands-self-driving-cars-n613941)

Regulators are getting behind the car. 94% of crashes are caused by human error. As long as the probability of computer error is lower than human error, then we'll be fine. From current data, self-driving cars are already safer.

 

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[splok]

This sounds great on paper. The reality is somewhat different:

Who gets the ticket when someone switches off the autopilot and drives your car 40MPH over the speed limit? You do.

Who gets the ticket when they go through EZ pass without one? You do.

Who gets the insurance hike and gets sued when they crash the car? You do.

Somehow car rental companies manage to exist.

 

[firmwear]

You clearly have zero idea about automotive testing. Tesla conducts rigorous testing of all components and assembly in software level, test rigs and also in-field. Yes, those tests are all done in extreme conditions to break the system. You simply cannot clock full lifecycle of any machine in testing phase, all testing is done in extreme conditions. This is true for BMW, JCB or any other manufacturing company.

What Tesla is doing is that they are improving the learning algorithm. And they need a ton of real data for that, not some test cycles in a laboratory or in a few test cars in-field.

I clearly do understand automotive testing processes for software and hardware. I developed components for OEMs from 2007-2015.

The most successful safety-critical product that I developed was mass-produced 8 million units over 5 years without revision. Zero defects. How many units have you mass produced?

The last 5 years I developed a component specifically for EV/HEV. At the time I quit, that product alone had MP contracts from the Big 3 and JLR.

I know all the standards for automotive hardware/software including AEC-Q100/-Q200, MISRA, ASIL, AUTOSAR, ISO26262, and whatever else you want to deal with (FMEA, FTA, &c). I have dealt with all the suppliers in the software field, countless semiconductor vendors, and purchasers for all the major manufacturers. Unlike a lot of people on this board, I have also dealt with purchasers from Tesla. Guess what they visited my employer to purchase?

I have read Tesla specs for their suppliers and I know their software supplier (Vector Informatik) so don't you condescend to me.

And by the way,

You simply cannot clock full lifecycle of any machine in testing phase

Actually, yes you can. Google HALT testing. Everybody does it, not just in the automotive industry. YOU clearly have no idea about testing hardware.

For the record, I hope Tesla succeeds simply because I don't like to see people get hurt/killed, and I don't like to see people lose their jobs.

However, in my experience, the worst people I have personally had to deal with in the world are managers in corporations. A surprisingly large proportion of them, when offered a choice between:
1) Delaying development for a few more months of testing and earn scrutiny from their manager; or,
2) Keeping the original schedule and collecting a bonus/raise/promotion at the end of the development cycle
will invariably choose door #2.

I quickly recognize the mentality of people who will open door #2.

Oh yes, not personally, but I have worked for an employer that suffered a recall and also had to deal with the NHTSA. Neither experience is enjoyable, to say the least. But as an engineer, personally, I can think of nothing worse than knowing that something you made, did not test well enough, and put out there got somebody killed.

I remember reading an NHTSA complaint, and 8 years later I can still remember as clear as day, "my beautiful new car tried to kill me." Just that one line. I have worked with a lot of people and I have seen, over and over again, junior engineers thinking they know it all and nothing could go wrong, until it does.

 

[nradam123]

Actually, yes you can. Google HALT testing. Everybody does it, not just in the automotive industry. YOU clearly have no idea about testing hardware.

Jesus Christ, HALT is an accelerated testing. You test the product in a high stress condition so that you do not have to test for 100000 hours or something. The point of any accelerated testing is to decrease the time/cost to complete testing so you are not clocking the full life cycle.

For example, you might test a vehicle gearbox at max load at max allowed RPM in that load for a specific amount of time given in the duty cycle so that you can find the weakness as quickly as possible.

The moment I saw this i stopped reading your post.

And by the way, I did not mean to call you out or anything. I just told what I know from my experience working in the automotive industry last 3 years. And yes, I quit my job and now I am in a fastlane journey so all these are past to me. Good luck with your fastlane journey, thats all.

 

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[firmwear]

Jesus Christ, HALT is an accelerated testing. You test the product in a high stress condition so that you do not have to test for 100000 hours or something. The point of any accelerated testing is to decrease the time/cost to complete testing so you are not clocking the full life cycle.

For example, you might test a vehicle gearbox at max load at max allowed RPM in that load for a specific amount of time given in the duty cycle so that you can find the weakness as quickly as possible.

The moment I saw this i stopped reading your post.

And by the way, I did not mean to call you out or anything. I just told what I know from my experience working in the automotive industry last 3 years. And yes, I quit my job and now I am in a fastlane journey so all these are past to me. Good luck with your fastlane journey, thats all.

You clearly have zero idea about automotive testing.

LOL, you are full of shit and I pegged you on it. I used to supervise junior engineers running HALT tests and you just explained it back to me like you know better. If I wanted an online education I'd register at the University of Phoenix online, thank you very much.

You are a total clown.