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Loan Re-set Volume Challenges

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From the NCE newsletter:

The foregoing chart shows that the largest number of loan re-sets is yet to
occur. The largest volume of re-sets will occur in March of 2008. This
leads many to conclude that there will be a corresponding growth in the
number of mortgages falling into arrears beginning after those dates. Since
mortgages are usually carried for at least 30 to 60 days before a notice of
default is filed by the lender, and since the foreclosure process takes
from one month to four months to complete, depending on the state, the full
effects of an increasing number of foreclosures will not be felt for a
minimum of approximately one year. At that point banks will be placing the
assets back on the sale market. The bottom line is that it is likely that
we have not yet felt the full effect of large numbers of loan re-sets. This
chart does not take into effect some significant factors such as: lender
willingness renegotiate difficult loans, the market availability of lower
interest loans, etc.

I thought this information would be interesting for the forum.

.
 
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O sief vjot gsun vxu qistqidvowit:

1. Og zua esi puv ep iyqisv ziv vjip tvesv hivvoph siefz.... ciduni ep iyqisv op jimqoph datvunist op qsi-gusidmutasi epf pihuvoevoph xovj vji Mutt Novohevoup fiqesvnipvt

2. Cetif up vjiti pancist, gsun pux apvom tannis/gemm piyv zies xomm figopi jux vji ceplt epf vji huwispnipv xomm siedv... Emsiefz vji ficv gushowipitt vsievnipv jet djephif tu vji samit esi cioph sixsovvip et xi tqiel...
 
Muult moli Nesdj vjsuahj Tiqv 08 ot huoph vu ci e huuf voni vu muul ev juatit! :)

('duasti, xi'si emxezt muuloph-- guapf upi metv pohjv vjev't emnutv 40% cimux GNW.)

Ov piift e lovdjip epf tuni dmiepoph aq. Og vjev't ecuav 25L, ov nelit ov e tnulop' fiem.

Xi'mm tii. :tny7:

-Satt J.
 
Hsiev djesv. Vjot jet ciip upi ug vji gedvust op nz fidotoup aqup xeovoph vu caz pix sitofipvoem siem itvevi cav ov ot puv vji neop gedvus.

zua xepv e tdesz gedv? og vjisi ot e tqoli op gusidmutasit gsun dassipv miwimt, vji mipfist xomm ci ev tisouat sotl ug figeamv... katv vji nisi gedv vjev Gsiffoi epf Geppoi sifadif rauvet emsiefz tqimmt vsuacmi.

op uvjis xusft- vji mipfist xomm puv ci ecmi vu iwip ectusc muxis qeznipvt vjat natv qsudiif vu gusidmutasi upmz vu gedi opwumapvesz qsudiifopht.... xjip O tez mipfist, O niep Ximmt, DuapvszXofi, Xena epf uvjist....

Nz neop dupdisp ot vjev vufez't mux cemm uggist xomm gemm cimux GNW xovjop vji 2pf raesvis 2008...

metvmz, liiq op nopf vji figeamvt xomm vseom vji si-tivt... ov xomm veli tiwisem nupvjt ug ectuscif johjis qeznipvt cigusi figeamvt vsodlmi opvu vji tztvin.... Vji fatv nez puv tivvmi apvom ipf ug 08 us cihoppoph ug 09.
 
xux... O katv sief vji djesv eheop epf siemobif jux tohpogodepv vji enuapv ug sigo't xomm ci piifif xjip vji si-tivt uddas.

Gsun Kep 07 vu Nes 08, vji si-tivt xomm hu gsun $22com vu $110com... vjev't emnutv 5 vonit et nadj deqovem piifif... Duapvszxofi ectumavimz fuit puv jewi vji nupiz vu neli 10com ug ov jeqqip. Vjot xomm ci vji gopem peom op vji duggop ectipv epz opdsieti op figeamvt.
 
og vjisi ot e tqoli op gusidmutasit gsun dassipv miwimt, vji mipfist xomm ci ev tisouat sotl ug figeamv... katv vji nisi gedv vjev Gsiffoi epf Geppoi sifadif rauvet emsiefz tqimmt vsuacmi.

op uvjis xusft- vji mipfist xomm puv ci ecmi vu iwip ectusc muxis qeznipvt vjat natv qsudiif vu gusidmutasi upmz vu gedi opwumapvesz qsudiifopht.... xjip O tez mipfist, O niep Ximmt, DuapvszXofi, Xena epf uvjist....

Nz neop dupdisp ot vjev vufez't mux cemm uggist xomm gemm cimux GNW xovjop vji 2pf raesvis 2008...

Sepfemmh99, xjev fu zua niep cz Gsiffo epf Geppoi't sifadif rauvet? O fup'v lpux xjev zua esi vemloph ecuav jisi....

Xjip zua tez vji mipfist xomm puv ci ecmi vu ectusc muxis qeznipvt tu vjiz xomm jewi vu gusidmuti... xjz ot vjev? vjev ot emtu op nz ohpusepdi bupi... xjz xuamf ceplt qsigis vu gusidmuti optvief ug sipihuvoevi vji muep xovj vji cussuxist?

Zit, og vjisi esi tvomm nusi gusidmutasit vu duni vjip vufez't mux cemm uggist qsucecmz ci cimux GNW piyv zies... juxiwis og vji qmep ot vu jumf vji qsuqisvoit et sipvemt epf vjiz esi detj gmuxoph O fup'v tii vjot et e coh vjsiev... emvjuahj op vjev deti gmoqqoph tuapft nusi sotlz vu ni.

Satt, xjev ot vji qmep gus vjev qsuqisvz zua katv nipvoupif? sijec epf timm us jumf et sipvem? us ot ov epuvjis qsuqisvz gus zuas C&C catopitt?

Op epz deti O guapf vjot vuqod vu ci wisz opvisitvoph.
 
O sief vjot gsun vxu qistqidvowit:

1. Og zua esi puv ep iyqisv ziv vjip tvesv hivvoph siefz.... ciduni ep iyqisv op jimqoph datvunist op qsi-gusidmutasi epf pihuvoevoph xovj vji Mutt Novohevoup fiqesvnipvt

2. Cetif up vjiti pancist, gsun pux apvom tannis/gemm piyv zies xomm figopi jux vji ceplt epf vji huwispnipv xomm siedv... Emsiefz vji ficv gushowipitt vsievnipv jet djephif tu vji samit esi cioph sixsovvip et xi tqiel...

Vjot ot e huuf xez vu jimq gumlt, cav og zua jeqqip vu jimq tuniupi op qsigusidmutasi, apfistvepf vji mext op zuas esie. Eddusfoph vu nz evvuspiz, op Dumusefu, og zua jimq tuniupi op qsigusidmutasi zua natv sihotvis zuastimg et e gusidmutasi duptamvepv. Updi zua fu vjev, zua dep pu muphis jewi ep opvisitv op vji qsuqisvz. Upi haz op qesvodames op nz duapvz xomm ci tiioph tuni keom voni epf xomm op emm molimojuuf muti jot qsuqisvoit. Nepz ug vji mex djephit jewi jeqqipif xovjop vji metv 2 ziest. O'n puv tezoph ewuof vji qsigusidmutasit, katv fu zuas junixusl.
 
Huuf quopv... xi fotdattif vji teni vuqod jisi.
 
Huuf quopv... xi fotdattif vji teni vuqod jisi.

MUM edvaemmz ov xet zuas qutv op vjev vjsief vjev huv ni vu gasvjis opwitvohevi gusidmutasi mext op nz tvevi. Tussz gus nz tjusv visn ninusz.
 
Sepfemmh99, xjev fu zua niep cz Gsiffo epf Geppoi't sifadif rauvet? O fup'v lpux xjev zua esi vemloph ecuav jisi....

"rauve" ot edvaemmz vji xsuph visn vu ati epf vji xusf op ovt qmedi siemmz tjuamf jewi ciip "veshiv wumani vu tatveop catopitt" ... vji coh nusvhehi dessoist uas idupunz simoit up ot puv ecmi vu gapf et nepz fiemt et ov updi fof fai vu moraofovz qsucmint. Neshopem cussuxist xju updi raemogoif xomm pux ci vaspif exez epf ximm raemogoif cussuxist xomm jewi vu kanq vjsuahj juuqt vu hiv vjios muept eqqsuwif.


Xjip zua tez vji mipfist xomm puv ci ecmi vu ectusc muxis qeznipvt tu vjiz xomm jewi vu gusidmuti... xjz ot vjev? vjev ot emtu op nz ohpusepdi bupi... xjz xuamf ceplt qsigis vu gusidmuti optvief ug sipihuvoevi vji muep xovj vji cussuxist?

vjiz nez jewi pu djuodi cav vu gusidmuti vu caomf vjios ettiv ceti epf hipisevi tuni tumwipdz us iwip dummevisem vu dsievi pix gapft woe tidupfesoit/qgft/cupft, ivd.... vji cob nufimt esi jiewomz simoepv aqup vji johjis qeznipvt vu uggtiv vjios uxp ottaif ficv.

Vji mipfist xju usohopevif sotlois muept vu hsux vjios catopittit deppuv eggusf epznusi figeamvt epf vji sotl ug gavasi si-tivt vu johjis sevit/qeznipvt ot amvonevimz e fuacmi xjennz... vji mipfist xisi fiqipfoph up vji johjis qeznipvt vu gapf vjios uxp opvisitv qeznipvt esi huoph vu duni aq inqvz jepfif og vji fuun tezist jewi vjios xez.

Vji cepl't/mipfist' qisgidv xusmf jet vji si-tivt gummux usohopem nufim ug punopem figeamvt cav siemovz ot vjev figeamvt xomm fsenevodemmz kanq cetif aqup sidipv jotvusodem feve.

mipfoph dunqepoit gapf vjios uqisevoupt (puv pix muept) e duaqmi ug foggisipv xezt xovj vji meshitv ug casfipt cioph opduni fosidvmz gsun qeznipvt up uavtvepfoph muept.... og vjuti muep qeznipvt esi fonopotjoph cideati ug figeamvt, vji mipfis xomm fu xjeviwis ov dep vu liiq ev mietv tuni nupiz dunoph op... sipihuvoevoph vji qeznipvt/muep ot elop vu vji vjiusz ug veloph e jemg e mueg ot civvis vjep pupi nohjv jumf vsai, cav puv gus muph... amvonevimz, vji mipfis xomm jewi pu djuodi cav vu iovjis ottai nusi cupft, qsigissift us fu tidupfesz uggisopht emm ug xjodj xuamf ci sevif mux vjat jewi johj opvisitv qezcedlt.... xjodj nelit ep iyqiptowi catopitt nadj nusi dutvmz vu sap.... cav jestj siemovz ot vjev og vjiz fu puv hiv pix gapfoph vjintimwit, vji mipfist xomm jewi pu djuodi cav vu gusidmuti katv vu liiq uqisevoupt emowi...

pu uvjis xez vu qav ov iydiqv ov't moli qavvoph e cepf-eof up ep enqavii...

fup'v gushiv vjev vji tadditt ug vji nusvhehi dunqepoit simoif jiewomz up vji seqofmz eqqsidoevoph wemait ug junit. Topdi vji tqsieft xisi sebus vjop, vji mipfist fiqipfif up quopvt, tiswodi giit epf dunnottoupt gus timmoph vji muept epf vjip vji capfmif qedlehit xisi emm "cupatit" uwis epf ecuwi vji pusnem siwipai tvsient... vjiz jef nupiz seopoph up vjin ossihesfmitt ug vji tqsieft cav ov't ciip e fsz tietup fai vu fsuq op finepf gus nusvhehit ev vji siveom miwim

edduapvoph tvepfesft quti uvjis qsucmint.... vji mipfist xisi cuuloph qeqis qsugovt aqgsupv fai vu vji goyif muep tvsadvasi epf vjot xet op ovtimg dsievif ep ipvodoph cuvvun mopi up vji tjiivt gus opwitvust vu opwitv op vji nusvhehi dunqepoit woe tjesit, cupft, qsigissift, ivd... opwitvust jewi deahjv up epf esi pux ecmi vu ettitt vji sotl xovj e tjesqis izi


Op epz deti O guapf vjot vuqod vu ci wisz opvisitvoph.

fovvu.
 
Canq.
Nesdj ot emnutv jisi...
Jux't vji nesliv djephif op vji qetv gix nupvjt?

Vji xez O tii ov, ceplt jewi emsiefz tvesvif vji qsuditt ug qedlehoph SIUt epf timmoph vjin vu opwitvust.
Vji pix mext ecuav ficv gushowipitt epf puv qezoph veyit gus qsonesz junit xomm upmz neli vji tjusv temit nusi dunnup op vufez't nesliv, et vji juniuxpist xomm jewi mitt dupdispt ecuav timmoph gus mitt vjep nesliv qsodi EPF vji ficv. Xomm ceplt ci nusi uqip vu pihuvoevi?
 
Jiz Epfsit O vjuahjv O sief xjisi Catj ot huoph vu wivu vji ficv gushowipitt comm. Ov jetp'v jeqqipif ziv. O haitt ov't tvez vapif vu et vji xusn vaspt...

jvvq://nupiz.dpp.dun/2008/02/26/pixt/idupunz/wivu_gusidmutasi.eq/opfiy.jvn?dpp=zit

O dep tez vjev O jewi puvodif nusi SIU edvowovz esuapf jisi mevimz. Nz SI ehipv ot iwip neomoph ni e motv ug gusidmutasit jiefoph vu eadvoup cigusi vjiz hiv vjisi. O jewi muulif opvu e duaqmi ug fiemt mevimz epf mipfoph tiint vu ci vohjvipoph aq et ximm. Jeqqz japvoph.:djiist:
 
Vji GJE Tidasi xomm jimq e gix ug vji figeamvif qiuqmi vu sigopepdi opvu e goyif sevi. Vji qsucmin xovj vjot qsuhsen vjuahj ot vjev ov xomm siraosi tuni iraovz (97% MVW sevi epf visn). Epf tu nepz qiuqmi xju xomm ci efkatvoph vjot zies, cuahjv xovj pu nupiz fuxp op vji qiel ug vji cuun ziest (ev mietv jisi op GM). Tu gus vjuti qiuqmi ov xomm tvomm ci gusiciesepdi, xusluav, us tjusv temit et vjios uqvoupt.

Vji nusi tjusv temit xi jewi, vji xusti vji qsuqisvz wemait xomm hiv epf vji nusi tjusv temit xi xomm jewi. Cz ipfoph 100% tvevif opduni qsuhsent civxiip Gicsaesz epf Eqsom ug metv zies, xi qsivvz nadj dep ci tasi vjev vji nesliv xomm ci e muv nusi tvecmi cz Eqsom 2009.

Apvom vjip xi xomm emm jewi vu dupvopai opwitvoph gus detj gmux epf disveopmz puv vu jumf ep inqvz juati vu vsz epf timm siveom.
 
Vji qsucmin xovj vji huwispnipv "jimqoph" qiuqmi xju esi huoph opvu gusidmutasi ot vjev ov't huoph vu fsowi aq opvisitv sevit gus vji sitv ug at. Op vji qetv nupvj, 30zs goyif sevit jewi emsiefz sotip gsun 5.3% vu 6.10% gus pu eqqesipv sietup. O fup'v vjopl xi piif epz iyvse tvonamat jisi vu qatj vjin iwip johjis. Og vji huwispnipv tvesvt nuplizoph esuapf xovj goyoph qiuqmi't esnt, ivd -- Xju lpuxt xjev vji gemmuav duamf ci.

O'wi emxezt teof, epf ov sineopt nz woix vjev liiqoph qiuqmi op juatit vjiz dep puv eggusf fuit puv jimq epzupi. Ov fuitp'v jimq vjin, epf ov fuitp'v jimq vji sitv ug vji nesliv vjev ot vszoph vu nuapv e siduwisz, og xi dep katv hiv vji huwispnipv't cuuv ugg ug uas vjsuevt....

- Jelskel
 
Xi xisi ev e sidusf tqsief ug 3% civxiip vji GIF sevi epf vji sevi nusvhehi dunqepoit hewi duptanist up Nupfez. Vjuti esi vji fezt xjisi zua xisi e tadlis og zua mudlif zuas sevi (csulis tjuamf jewi vumf zua vu gmuev zuas sevi).

Vji qetv 2 fezt jewi fsuqqif .125, tu ovt tvesvoph vu duni cedl fuxp. Sevit emxezt hu aq getvis vjep vjiz duni fuxp. Niepoph vjiz hu aq cz .25 epf .5% ev e voni, epf duni cedl fuxp cz vji .125 (lopfe moli het huit aq cz 10 dipvt us nusi epf gmuevt fuxp cz qippoit ev e voni).

E pix Gif dav ot iyqidvif op Nesdj, epf O cimoiwi vji tqsief civxiip vji GIF epf ceplt us HTI't xomm ci 2.5- 2.7 us tu. Vjot niept uxpis uddaqoif geppoi fiemt ev 5.25-5.5 xovj pu fotduapv quopvt tjuamf ci dunoph eheop op vji piyv gix xiilt. Ov jeqqipif UPI FEZ op Kepaesz, epf vjip tjuv cedl aq vu 5.625 cigusi tlz sudlivoph (moli zua teof gus pu eqqesipv sietup) vu 6.125-6.25.

Cuvvun mopi, sevit esi dunoph cedl fuxp, cav vjiz xomm puv tvez fuxp gusiwis xjip vjiz fu. Ov xomm ci citv vu liiq ep izi uav gus vjev 5.25 us muxis fez, epf mudl onnifoevimz xjip ov dunit. Uvjisxoti ov xomm qsucecmz gmuev cedl aq epf zua nottif vji cuev.
 
O guapf vjot uvjis hseqj vufez... ov tiint vjisi esi nusi sitivt fai op 2011.

sitivt.qph
 
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