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Kondratieff winter


Jul 25, 2007
There was a Russian economist, Nickolai Kondratieff (1892-1938), who felt that capitalist economies underwent boom and bust cycles ranging from 50-60 years in length. This cycle is referred to as the Kondratieff Wave and is conveniently divided into "seasons". Each season, theoretically, has certain investments that should prosper.

If one believes in this, here is a link to a great graphic that will say more than I could (picture is worth 1000 words):

I would be curious to hear others' thoughts.
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Aug 8, 2007
Business cycles are very much real. Timing them, thats not so easy.

I have read a few things about the Kondratieff cycles before, there was even a mention in a recent Economist magazine (no idea where.)

The graphic given says January 2000 as the end of the disinflation/euphoria period. That would appear to show we are 7 years into the winter, yet thats not exactly accurate.

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